Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Bear Hug]

On 10/08/2018 at 20:37, DurhamBorn said:

He is telling his people to sell their gold and buy Lira .For people who think the PMs are a relic,Turkish people who own them have seen a 4% fall,their family who only owned Lira have seen a 66% fall,so far.

Btw, this Turkey thing can't be good for Vodafone.  I understand it's a small percentage (~4%) of revenue, but is probably important from "bad news" perspective

[dgul]

2 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Btw, this Turkey thing can't be good for Vodafone.  I understand it's a small percentage (~4%) of revenue, but is probably important from "bad news" perspective

People who it's bad for:  Those that have borrowings based on <other currencies> but income in Lira.  I'm not sure that Vod is this, particularly.  Sure, it has income in Lira but they're in a position to increase prices with inflation and any local costs (in Lira) will be going down.

The ones that'll be crucified is the banks that have lent to Turkey/Turkish in foreign currency and where there is an increased chance of default.  Banks, mainly

[Bear Hug]

4 minutes ago, dgul said:

People who it's bad for:  Those that have borrowings based on <other currencies> but income in Lira.  I'm not sure that Vod is this, particularly.  Sure, it has income in Lira but they're in a position to increase prices with inflation and any local costs (in Lira) will be going down.

The ones that'll be crucified is the banks that have lent to Turkey/Turkish in foreign currency and where there is an increased chance of default.  Banks, mainly

I think there is normally a struggle when trying to increase prices in currency crash.  More specifically, this:

Quote

Turkey's 'organic' growth of 14%, in euro terms was actually a 14.1% fall year-on-year. "This (partly) explains why VOD's yoy statutory growth in service revenues came in a -4.2% vs the +0.3% recorded by VOD in organic service revenue.

from here: http://www.lse.co.uk/sharecast-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=27777246&ArticleHeadline=Vodafone_revenue_falls_board_pleased_with_operational_performance

And that was before the very latest developments.  I hold some Vod myself but expect some more "buying opportunities" thanks to this.

[dgul]

4 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

I think there is normally a struggle when trying to increase prices in currency crash.  More specifically, this:

from here: http://www.lse.co.uk/sharecast-news-article.asp?ArticleCode=27777246&ArticleHeadline=Vodafone_revenue_falls_board_pleased_with_operational_performance

And that was before the very latest developments.  I hold some Vod myself but expect some more "buying opportunities" thanks to this.

The flip side is that they've invested in infrastructure and that there's no problem with paying the debt.  The current developments, however, will make it very difficult for others to invest in the country.  

[Band]

11 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Its the point at which Turkish banks reserves become.... "depleted".

Well it hit 7 overnight and 6.9 as i type.

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

Btw, this Turkey thing can't be good for Vodafone.  I understand it's a small percentage (~4%) of revenue, but is probably important from "bad news" perspective

Id be a lot more worried about most other companies than VOD.If i could still access US ETFs id probably buy the Turkish ETF today,iv made good money on it in the past.

Whats to be noted though is the background to this thread going back to the start.That falling liquidity would end up in a debt deflation,and thats exactly whats happening now.The only thing missing is a gold rally.Will we get one?

[DurhamBorn]

10 hours ago, dgul said:

People who it's bad for:  Those that have borrowings based on <other currencies> but income in Lira.  I'm not sure that Vod is this, particularly.  Sure, it has income in Lira but they're in a position to increase prices with inflation and any local costs (in Lira) will be going down.

The ones that'll be crucified is the banks that have lent to Turkey/Turkish in foreign currency and where there is an increased chance of default.  Banks, mainly

Exactly,and VOD have already paid for the network,mostly, so depreciation is set.That means price increases go straight to the bottom line as free cash.

Banks however who have being lending to construction companies etc...

[Band]

9 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id be a lot more worried about most other companies than VOD.If i could still access US ETFs id probably buy the Turkish ETF today,iv made good money on it in the past.

Whats to be noted though is the background to this thread going back to the start.That falling liquidity would end up in a debt deflation,and thats exactly whats happening now.The only thing missing is a gold rally.Will we get one?

You can buy with Turkish ETF AJ Bell

HTRY	HSBC MSCI Turkey ETF GBP (LSE:HTRY)	ETF		Deal
HTRD	HSBC MSCI Turkey ETF (LSE:HTRD)	ETF		Deal
IDTK	iShares MSCI Turkey ETF USD Dist USD (LSE:IDTK)	ETF		Deal
ITKY	iShares MSCI Turkey ETF USD Dist GBP (LSE:ITKY)

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Banned said:

You can buy with Turkish ETF AJ Bell

HTRY	HSBC MSCI Turkey ETF GBP (LSE:HTRY)	ETF		Deal
HTRD	HSBC MSCI Turkey ETF (LSE:HTRD)	ETF		Deal
IDTK	iShares MSCI Turkey ETF USD Dist USD (LSE:IDTK)	ETF		Deal
ITKY	iShares MSCI Turkey ETF USD Dist GBP (LSE:ITKY)

Thanks Banned,i didnt know HSBC had a Turkey fund so il check that out.

[Band]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thanks Banned,i didnt know HSBC had a Turkey fund so il check that out.

Is it worth a punt or is there more to come, surely bankruptcy's will see it drop further.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Banned said:

Is it worth a punt thinking £1500? Lets know your thoughts.

A quick look and both those funds contain a lot of banks.Likely  the Turkish central banks will give them liquidity,but the weighting is high so im put off.However ITKY has gone below its 2008 price so as a contrarian im tempted still to have a sniff.Like Bear Hug says though the market might give more buying chances into the likes of VOD yet.Trump is waging war on the likes of Turkey.

[Band]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

A quick look and both those funds contain a lot of banks.Likely  the Turkish central banks will give them liquidity,but the weighting is high so im put off.However ITKY has gone below its 2008 price so as a contrarian im tempted still to have a sniff.Like Bear Hug says though the market might give more buying chances into the likes of VOD yet.Trump is waging war on the likes of Turkey.

Its how far Trump can go with Turkey being a NATO ally and with all thats going on with their neighbours.

Spain will have a bad day if things really do deteriorate. 

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Banned said:

Its how far Trump can go with Turkey being a NATO ally and with all thats going on with their neighbours.

Spain will have a bad day if things really do deteriorate. 

Thats incredible the exposure of Spain.

[Barnsey]

TRY strengthened to 6.46 this morning after central bank intervention of 11 billion dollars but already back to 6.86. Interestingly Yen now strengthening (as predicted), this is only just beginning. M2 plummeting, other emerging currencies weakening, and exposed banks also seeing their share prices fall this morning. Gold shorts up massively, yet gold price not budging, due an upswing soon I think.

Edit: @DurhamBorn Just noticed DXY really within a whisker of your 96.5 target, currently 96.42 but touched the 96.5 mark a few times this morning, just wondering what the reversal trigger will be and how soon given much of the current trouble is coming from it's strength?

[kibuc]

First Majestic posted it's q2 results, good enough for -12% on the day so far and over -30% since topping last month.

Wesdome dropped 15% in the last 5 days.

Coeur and Yamana taking a severe beating today, Goldcorp down a lot, Barrick down, plenty of red elsewhere.

That mythical gold rally better come soon enough.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 06/08/2018 at 10:08, DurhamBorn said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Lidl had added a new way of doing reductions.The normal 30% off still stands,but they used to throw out anything that didnt sell at night that was on date the next day.Now they are selling that instead of chucking it out.So the stuff on date is now priced at a straight 70p chiller food,20p bread etc.I went in at 9.30am and i got a free range chicken 70p,5 packs of chicken breast in garlic and herb marinade 70p each,turkey steaks 70p,they even had a 6 bag of salmon fillets 70p,but i dont like salmon so left those,but incredible price for someone there.The girl hadnt done it right though as she had actually marked stuff on date tomorrow,where it should only by stuff on date today so it may be that there isnt usually much,or even anything,but its a great way of getting really cheap quality stuff.There was also some cooked meats etc at 70p,but they were usually only £1.60 where as the chicken has been £6.It looked like it had just been done so they probably do it soon after they open.Il try later in the week at 9am and see if its done then and home the time down to a small window.Handy having it only 100 yards away and its always really quiet until about 10.30 as the tax credit locals are never up and dressed before then 

 

@DurhamBorn CLEANING Up as ever!

 

Lidl...is a bit far for me push-bike, but i may give it a go in the future and get there @ 9.30am...and report back!

 

If i ever blank at tescos i jump on me push-bike pedal down the road & in 5 minutes and arrive at sainsburys...usually pick something up here reduced...

 

I see GOLD down $15 today...now just under $1200 mighty odd that its NOT going up with the current Turkey sh*t!?

 

Anyway just bought some more silver @ bullionvault ...nice and easy lovely site!

 

ALL 3 purchases cheaper than the last one ha-ha!

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

32 minutes ago, kibuc said:

First Majestic posted it's q2 results, good enough for -12% on the day so far and over -30% since topping last month.

Wesdome dropped 15% in the last 5 days.

Coeur and Yamana taking a severe beating today, Goldcorp down a lot, Barrick down, plenty of red elsewhere.

That mythical gold rally better come soon enough.

 

Yep ya need to be THICK skinned with these type of stocks in this game!

 

The way NEW GOLD is going ...I reckon it won't be long before ya'll see me down the high-street with me BEGGING-BOWL!

Please do give generously when ya see me!

 

@leonardratsoCare to join me... HA-ha!

[leonardratso]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Yep ya need to be THICK skinned with these type of stocks in this game!

 

The way NEW GOLD is going ...I reckon it won't be long before ya'll see me down the high-street with me BEGGING-BOWL!

Please do give generously when ya see me!

 

@leonardratsoCare to join me... HA-ha!

im already there, 3rd tramp from the right. Ive got 15 overcoats, so im either quite well orf, or the fact that im wearing them all at once makes me a tramp.

[leonardratso]

the looney train doesnt stop at any stations.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

the looney train doesnt stop at any stations.

On an unrelated note, anyone else notice that the hype around crypto's has mysteriously disappeared? 

[harp]

18 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

On an unrelated note, anyone else notice that the hype around crypto's has mysteriously disappeared? 

Alts are carnage! And yes I have some which have dropped 80%. However, I bought Bitcoin this time last year and sold for £11k each on the way down. So still up, WAY up. Never write off Bitcoin though.

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-13/crypto-bubble-unwind-images-fast-altcoins-slower-bitcoin

[Bricks & Mortar]

17 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

anyone else notice that the hype around crypto's has mysteriously disappeared?

Maybe just struggling for good news stories?

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-hits-7-month-high-against-turkish-lira/

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

Fund Managers Add To Record Bearish Positioning In Gold

With HEADLINES like this ...

WON'T be long before GOLD turns UP ...and these dipsh*t fund managers find them selves queuing at the dole office!

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-08-13/Funds-Add-To-Record-Bearish-Positioning-In-Gold.html

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

On 10/08/2018 at 06:45, Hardhat said:

I wondered why this thread had gone dead on tos...

Some advice: withdraw funds from vanguard lifestategy and put it into bullion? Or into emerging markets? The lifestategy etf seems to be highly dependent on North America, and although it's performed amazingly so far this year I'm worried it's about to pop (at which point it will be time to re invest).

Also, as an aside I'm in Dubai atm and I've visited the gold souk a few times to buy gifts. Worked gold- chains, earrings, rings, necklaces etc are very cheap out here, if you are willing to haggle. 20% off what you might pay in the UK.

WELCOME to the party!

BTW, Can ya pick us up a CHEAP 1 kilo GOLD bar - I'll meet ya at heathrow with the moolah HONEST

[UnconventionalWisdom]

44 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Maybe just struggling for good news stories?

https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-hits-7-month-high-against-turkish-lira/

Ha! Grasping at straws