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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

im already there, 3rd tramp from the right. Ive got 15 overcoats, so im either quite well orf, or the fact that im wearing them all at once makes me a tramp.

Heres me checking the trash out after blanking at tescos!xD

24393290786_bb50a815a2_b.jpg

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sancho panza
On 12/08/2018 at 22:22, Bear Hug said:

Btw, this Turkey thing can't be good for Vodafone.  I understand it's a small percentage (~4%) of revenue, but is probably important from "bad news" perspective

There are going to be lots of challenges going forwards.vodafone offers a way of hedging sterling versus emerging market/$/Euro.I haven't bought yet.But am hoping to emerge in three years from this with a good chunk circa 4% or so portfolio value .Super propsects longer term.

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id be a lot more worried about most other companies than VOD.If i could still access US ETFs id probably buy the Turkish ETF today,iv made good money on it in the past.

Whats to be noted though is the background to this thread going back to the start.That falling liquidity would end up in a debt deflation,and thats exactly whats happening now.The only thing missing is a gold rally.Will we get one?

The companies might do better than the currency especially exporters.....

 

12 hours ago, Banned said:

Its how far Trump can go with Turkey being a NATO ally and with all thats going on with their neighbours.

Spain will have a bad day if things really do deteriorate. 

DkTethzXoAE9D0m.jpg

Spain isn't exposed,it's the ECB that is.

'Whatever it takes' etc etc.

 

6 hours ago, kibuc said:

First Majestic posted it's q2 results, good enough for -12% on the day so far and over -30% since topping last month.

Wesdome dropped 15% in the last 5 days.

Coeur and Yamana taking a severe beating today, Goldcorp down a lot, Barrick down, plenty of red elsewhere.

That mythical gold rally better come soon enough.

https://uk.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs-components

 

HUI components down 3.3%

Some bargains looming.The trend is down for now.

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So TRY has taken a brief respite following further CB intervention including an interest rate rise, however the contagion amongst emerging currencies continues to take hold, Argentina hiked their rate 5% but that had very little effect at all and the Rupee has just hit a record low.

So thats commodities, EM stocks and debt, and the Euro, all down against the USD since April. Common belief is that the USD rally only getting started, and even if they held off on rate rises or even reversed course, the panic is such that it'll still rise until the crisis reaches their shores. We're definitely seeing the start of a global interdependency shock as the US continues with QT.

In other news, UK unemployment figure just released now at its lowest since Christmas 1974!

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

In other news, UK unemployment figure just released now at its lowest since Christmas 1974!

Once Christmas is over the fat bearded men have to rejoin the dole que.. 

:Old:

in other Boris related news does anyone know if this emoji is a ninja or a burka :ph34r:

I don’t use it as I’m not sure? 

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20 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Fund Managers Add To Record Bearish Positioning In Gold

With HEADLINES like this ...

WON'T be long before GOLD turns UP ...and these dipsh*t fund managers find them selves queuing at the dole office!:P

http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-08-13/Funds-Add-To-Record-Bearish-Positioning-In-Gold.html

 

In 2001 the Vanguard Gold and precious metals fund dropped Gold from its name at the market bottom. On July 25th, Vanguard announced it would no longer offer a fund with Gold and Precious Metals in its name and planned to take it's 2.3 Billion Gold and precious metals holdings down from at least 80% of the fund to 20%. Once again they are losing confidence precisely when a major bottom should arise. At the market bottom in December 2016, DSI sentiment reached a reading of 4% retail bulls. Recently we have had an 8% and 6% reading, and another 6% yesterday. Retail sentiment has reached the pessimistic extremes last seen at the lows in Gold in 2015.

Technicals are extremely oversold. This is precisely what was needed to create the pessimism necessary to birth the optimism that will come at the peak of the next intermediate cycle, when Gold is likely to exceed 1400/1450. The dollar is overdue to print a 13 month cycle high.
That has not changed.

Gold continues to make higher highs since it's bottom in 2015. The primary uptrend is not threatened as long as 1123 remains intact as critical long term support. All breaking 1194.50 does is change the wave pattern and may alter the timing for the cycle peak. Although GDX with its large cap stocks bottomed in Jan 2016, the broader TSX Global Gold Stock Index actually bottomed in September 2015 and made its second higher low into the January 2016 low.

Normally, I pay less attention to speculators in the spot gold, weekly range. However, I noticed they reached a weekly extreme in pessimism, that exceeds the extreme last seen in December 2015. This is good news going forward. It did take a few weeks after that bottom in pessimism for GDX to bottom. This is a telling week and I am on reversal watch.

 

Right off to Tesco for the yellow stickers and iv sent our lass down Asda,we go in double barrel now and hit both xD

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

In 2001 the Vanguard Gold and precious metals fund dropped Gold from its name at the market bottom. On July 25th, Vanguard announced it would no longer offer a fund with Gold and Precious Metals in its name and planned to take it's 2.3 Billion Gold and precious metals holdings down from at least 80% of the fund to 20%. Once again they are losing confidence precisely when a major bottom should arise. At the market bottom in December 2016, DSI sentiment reached a reading of 4% retail bulls. Recently we have had an 8% and 6% reading, and another 6% yesterday. Retail sentiment has reached the pessimistic extremes last seen at the lows in Gold in 2015.

Technicals are extremely oversold. This is precisely what was needed to create the pessimism necessary to birth the optimism that will come at the peak of the next intermediate cycle, when Gold is likely to exceed 1400/1450. The dollar is overdue to print a 13 month cycle high.
That has not changed.

Gold continues to make higher highs since it's bottom in 2015. The primary uptrend is not threatened as long as 1123 remains intact as critical long term support. All breaking 1194.50 does is change the wave pattern and may alter the timing for the cycle peak. Although GDX with its large cap stocks bottomed in Jan 2016, the broader TSX Global Gold Stock Index actually bottomed in September 2015 and made its second higher low into the January 2016 low.

Normally, I pay less attention to speculators in the spot gold, weekly range. However, I noticed they reached a weekly extreme in pessimism, that exceeds the extreme last seen in December 2015. This is good news going forward. It did take a few weeks after that bottom in pessimism for GDX to bottom. This is a telling week and I am on reversal watch.

 

Right off to Tesco for the yellow stickers and iv sent our lass down Asda,we go in double barrel now and hit both xD

Mmmmm, not a good idea splitting...go together and you could do a `pincer movement` to maximize your success...it worked in the war! :-) :-) :-)

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Abit random but does anyone have any formulas that they stick too for selling stock etc...  

Obviously, I suppose a lot depends on the news as to why you may sell earlier but just wondering about having something in the place hit this price or ROI of X% sell X amount

 

Probably overthinking but thought it is ideal to have a stupid idea or not......

Or I will probably just sit staring at the prices forever

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leonardratso

the roma will outflank you at the YPS counter and up will pop the russians just as you manage to reach the shelf and throw thousands of bodies at it.

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6 hours ago, macca said:

Once Christmas is over the fat bearded men have to rejoin the dole que.. 

:Old:

in other Boris related news does anyone know if this emoji is a ninja or a burka :ph34r:

I don’t use it as I’m not sure? 

Letterbox

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sancho panza
11 hours ago, Barnsey said:

So TRY has taken a brief respite following further CB intervention including an interest rate rise, however the contagion amongst emerging currencies continues to take hold, Argentina hiked their rate 5% but that had very little effect at all and the Rupee has just hit a record low.

So thats commodities, EM stocks and debt, and the Euro, all down against the USD since April. Common belief is that the USD rally only getting started, and even if they held off on rate rises or even reversed course, the panic is such that it'll still rise until the crisis reaches their shores. We're definitely seeing the start of a global interdependency shock as the US continues with QT.

In other news, UK unemployment figure just released now at its lowest since Christmas 1974!

I think you're right B&M.They'll raise so they can cut into the crisis.

I thin k there's some real scope for some unpredictable rate rises in different places.

Re the unemployment figures 2 random thoughts

1 could be masked by the amount of people on tax credits -circa 4 million working part time

2 why no wage inflation?

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sleepwello'nights
8 hours ago, macca said:

Once Christmas is over the fat bearded men have to rejoin the dole que.. 

:Old:

in other Boris related news does anyone know if this emoji is a ninja or a burka :ph34r:

I don’t use it as I’m not sure? 

Balaclava. 

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On 13/08/2018 at 17:05, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
Yep ya need to be THICK skinned with these type of stocks in this game!
 
The way NEW GOLD is going ...I reckon it won't be long before ya'll see me down the high-street with me BEGGING-BOWL! :o

Please do give generously when ya see me!
 
@leonardratsoCare to join me... HA-ha!xD

 

On 13/08/2018 at 18:16, leonardratso said:

im already there, 3rd tramp from the right. Ive got 15 overcoats, so im either quite well orf, or the fact that im wearing them all at once makes me a tramp.

Thanks to the pound falling so well recently, my individual gold stocks losses (in £) are pretty much offset by the money I saved while buying 6 pairs of discounted pants from Debenhams last month.

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On 13/08/2018 at 22:31, sancho panza said:

There are going to be lots of challenges going forwards.vodafone offers a way of hedging sterling versus emerging market/$/Euro.I haven't bought yet.But am hoping to emerge in three years from this with a good chunk circa 4% or so portfolio value .Super propsects longer term.

I just need to force myself not to buy everything at once ). Difficult, while watching pound drop all the time.  But FTSE seems to follow it down these days..  2009-style

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5 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Abit random but does anyone have any formulas that they stick too for selling stock etc...  

Obviously, I suppose a lot depends on the news as to why you may sell earlier but just wondering about having something in the place hit this price or ROI of X% sell X amount

 

Probably overthinking but thought it is ideal to have a stupid idea or not......

Or I will probably just sit staring at the prices forever

Yeah, you've got to have a plan, otherwise you'll just get caught up in emotion and buy and sell all over the place.

When you buy a stock you should have a pretty good idea why you're buying it, and what conditions would cause you to sell it.

If you're stock picking, then you'll basically be trying to buy when the market is undervaluing a stock, and sell when the market is overvaluing it. If you can work out a reliable way of working that out, then please let me know.

xD

I very rarely buy and even more rarely sell individual socks. I'm mostly in index funds, which I rebalance occasionally to give me something to keep me busy.

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My buying and selling is simple.I buy areas and stocks when they are hated.I like to see the press printing that the sector is finished,no hope,sell sell sell.I have always done this.However i used to buy too early and although ended up making good money i needed to try to shave off some of the falls.I did this two ways.When i decided a stock was now cheap id wait for another 8% down before buying.I then staircase in,usually in four 25% splits.I buy the splits each 8% down (sometimes 6% for FTSE 100).I have found this has worked very well for me.In Centrica for instance with dividends this year in only down 4% on my holding.Yet i bought some at £1.92.

Everyone at the moment hates retail,gold,telecoms and electric utilities.In gold for instance we hear "gold has no bottom and is collapsing".No wonder then all my signals are flashing very strong buys (all my signals are based on 100% contrarian indicators and macro road maps).8% retail bulls now in gold (cycle lows around 6%).yet is gold collapsing?.No,in RAND gold is going up fast.South African miners are getting much more for their gold today than last month in local currency.

 

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DB. Looks like a very sensible approach, as you say at some point you are hopefully at the bottom of said staircase! I have Centrica, and anything below £1.30 and I'll buy more, although I think the dividend may be cut in the not too distant future. :(

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Everyone at the moment hates retail,gold,telecoms and electric utilities.In gold for instance we hear "gold has no bottom and is collapsing".No wonder then all my signals are flashing very strong buys (all my signals are based on 100% contrarian indicators and macro road maps).8% retail bulls now in gold (cycle lows around 6%).yet is gold collapsing?.No,in RAND gold is going up fast.South African miners are getting much more for their gold today than last month in local currency.

Gold's time will come when investors wake up and start to panic, with Apple and Amazon still parabolic and heading higher I suspect things will keep going till after Trump gets his midterm victory.  A lot of Pensions & Companies valuations these days are based on asset values, backed up by proportionally very little cash/PM's/Equiv.  If anything was to happen to asset prices....

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Total carnage on Silver today :) For a rally to commence we need some buyers to step in and squeeze short sellers. Will it happen? I don't know.

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1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

Total carnage on Silver today :) For a rally to commence we need some buyers to step in and squeeze short sellers. Will it happen? I don't know.

 

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