Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[MrXxx]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

The commercials are the people who own gold,use gold etc.So they all buy shorts to make sure they dont take a hit if gold falls while they conduct their business.They dont buy the shorts to make money,they buy them to protect their business.Someone forward buying $10 million of gold to supply others buys shorts to cover themselves.The fact that commercials are now down to the lowest shorts as far back as i can remember says they dont see much point in buying shorts.In the past the commercials ie the people inside the industry who see the demand etc every day tend to signal moves in gold much better than fund managers in an office.

The insiders have the lowest shorts i can remember,the fund managers have the highest shorts since 1972.When those shorts need covering....

 

On top of this retail bulls are down to 6% in gold (4% the lowest ever) and dollar bulls are at 95% all levels where reversals can happen quickly.

 

 

Thanks for a clear/simple explanation

...so the commercials are low on shorts as they believe the gold price is very much at the bottom and hence no need to hedge...but what does that say for the fund managers (or their customers) who are high on shorts, are they not going to get burnt?...or are they using something else I.e US dollars to hedge against their gold shorts?

[leonardratso]

i know its not the same industry, but i remember the directors last year buying up lots of dixons carphone warehouse shares when the slid to £1.80, i got some too and then it bounced up over £2,00 so i sold out, i dunno if they held on but its now £1.67, so id be a bit careful about following the insiders, your probably ok in a demand led forward order book type commodity.

(as opposed to a shit phone contract reseller and middle man).

[harp]

On 30/06/2018 at 09:32, DurhamBorn said:

Ok,i finished off building a PM portfolio for my dad last night.He wanted 12% of his portfolio in PM miners.They arent all exact 2%,some are 1.5% some 2.5% ect (HMY biggest at 2.6%).I bought from miners who are showing good technical support (Yamana etc) and ones that look like they might snap back very fast (oversold,HMY NGD etc) if we are at an inflection point in the complex.In my own portfolio i own these and a couple of others,

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.56

Yamana Gold (YRI) $3.86

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.42

New Gold (NGD) $2.06

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) $5.91

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) $4.10

If anyone was wanting to invest £10k in the space thats the portfolio id advise.Its a risky portfolio of course as i picked the stocks that i think will do very well IF we enter a PM metals/miners bull market.If we dont there will probably be pain in the portfolio.However its a risk/reward situation.DYOR etc etc,not individual advice etc etc,see an IFA to pay for his fees etc etc.

 

I know you bought these for your Dad DB a couple of months back, so just comparing prices now. Obviously PM miners are still falling but do you still stand by these choices? For your own portfolio what are the others you have if you don't mind me asking. Looking at taking a better position after buying  and selling Sibanye in June(small profit before a turn down). Just waiting for a turn down in the USD before getting going on this.

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.49

Yamana Gold (YRI) $2.70

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.10

New Gold (NGD) $1.00

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) 4.70 CAD?

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) 2.89 CAD?

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

 

Hey DB, your mention of Taylor Wimpy, promoted me to check Countrywide share price as ain't checked it a month or so...GORDON BENNETT ...

 

Its down to 14p

 

Countrywide looks BUST!

If it goes to 1p I may put in £100 for a gamble

 

Would of been a GREAT short from £6.00!

I wonder if sancho panza had it in his short portfolio...?

Only started shorting a few months back when I felt the market was beginning to roll over.I'm not a habitual shorter and generally trade with the market trend.Hence hanging off shorting US stocks for now.

The High St EA's are the most structurally screwed of all sectors imho for a variety of reasons-transactions/prices/transactions-rent/rates/salaries/transactions....etc etc

Savills is tempting.

[DurhamBorn]

4 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Thanks for a clear/simple explanation

...so the commercials are low on shorts as they believe the gold price is very much at the bottom and hence no need to hedge...but what does that say for the fund managers (or their customers) who are high on shorts, are they not going to get burnt?...or are they using something else I.e US dollars to hedge against their gold shorts?

Yes pretty much thats what it means,they see little downside.The fund managers would need to cover their shorts if/when gold turns.The two being at extremes means the risk reward is very much in a buyers favour.Not certain of course,but in favour.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

i know its not the same industry, but i remember the directors last year buying up lots of dixons carphone warehouse shares when the slid to £1.80, i got some too and then it bounced up over £2,00 so i sold out, i dunno if they held on but its now £1.67, so id be a bit careful about following the insiders, your probably ok in a demand led forward order book type commodity.

(as opposed to a shit phone contract reseller and middle man).

Very good advice,a lot of director deals are tiny in the scheme of things.In gold miners though decent size buying does tend to be a good signal as they tend to know when mines are performing,understand the cycles in their industry.

[DurhamBorn]

41 minutes ago, harp said:

I know you bought these for your Dad DB a couple of months back, so just comparing prices now. Obviously PM miners are still falling but do you still stand by these choices? For your own portfolio what are the others you have if you don't mind me asking. Looking at taking a better position after buying  and selling Sibanye in June(small profit before a turn down). Just waiting for a turn down in the USD before getting going on this.

Harmony Gold (HMY) $1.49

Yamana Gold (YRI) $2.70

Sibanye Gold (SBGL) $2.10

New Gold (NGD) $1.00

Sandstorm Gold (SSL) 4.70 CAD?

Endeavor Silver Corp (EDR) 2.89 CAD?

Very much,i actually added some more Harmony and Yamana last week (i always add Yamana below CAD $3.50) ,iv taken Yamana back to a full holding now after profit taking earlier in the year.I also sold a few Sibanye at $2.40,i dont have many of those left and i wont be adding,i had too much South Africa exposure so sold over half the holding.Il also add some more Endeavor Silver maybe this week and i might add some Mcewan Mining,though it would only be a couple of grand as my exposure is around 20% of portfolio and thats my limit for the PM sector.

I have sold quite a few treasuries late last week,i had a very large holding and they have returned around 12%.I think the dollar is going down (even though everyone says its going up) and sterling looks very over sold on the technicals.

[harp]

Thanks DB.

[kibuc]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Very good advice,a lot of director deals are tiny in the scheme of things.In gold miners though decent size buying does tend to be a good signal as they tend to know when mines are performing,understand the cycles in their industry.

I appreciate the advice, it's easy to get stuck in a confirmation bias and read too much into minor bits of information.

[Bricks & Mortar]

BBC equivalent for a country with a large gold holding.

https://www.rt.com/business/436264-gold-real-value-paper-money/
 

[sancho panza]

On 17/08/2018 at 17:51, leonardratso said:

have a look at the foxt chart as well, both are a big piece of shit and deserve a big fat zero price.

Transactions dropping everywhere.

Even Scotland.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-price-growth-slows-in-scotland-as-transactions-take-a-tumble/

 

Less transactions,less lettings fees,less EA's.

[Don Coglione]

41 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Transactions dropping everywhere.

Even Scotland.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-price-growth-slows-in-scotland-as-transactions-take-a-tumble/

 

Less transactions,less lettings fees,less EA's.

Fewer x3, please.

[MrXxx]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Transactions dropping everywhere.

Even Scotland.

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/house-price-growth-slows-in-scotland-as-transactions-take-a-tumble/

 

Less transactions,less lettings fees,less EA's.

Even less letting fees come the reform early next year, and if they just tag it onto the landlords letting fee % I can see a lot of them then looking a lot more closely at the service (or lack of) being provided and doing it themselves...result, even less estate agents!

[Band]

On 18/08/2018 at 15:23, DurhamBorn said:

Very good advice,a lot of director deals are tiny in the scheme of things.In gold miners though decent size buying does tend to be a good signal as they tend to know when mines are performing,understand the cycles in their industry.

But how about when directors of building corporation sell £300 million in the past year -

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6074377/Housebuilding-barons-sell-shares-worth-300m-fears-mount-property-market.html

The bosses of Britain’s top housebuilders have cashed in £300million worth of shares between them over the past year.

Our analysis of share sales by building bosses comes as fears rise of a downturn in the market.Upmarket housebuilder Berkeley Group’s founder and chairman Tony Pidgley, a former Barnardo’s boy, has sold £65million of shares in the last 12 months, while chief executive Rob Perrins has cashed in £37million.

[leonardratso]

yes, thats a flag to watch, hehehe. 

[Lavalas]

On 17/08/2018 at 23:42, kibuc said:

Speaking of insiders, Wesdome independent director Warwick Morley-Jepson recently added 20k shares @3.24cad to his portfolio. He was the one who kicked off insider purchase frenzy at WDO in May @2cad and looks like he still sees value at today prices.

Kiena drilling update - their primary price mover - is expected early Sep.

Don’t blame him. I’d buy some more Wesdome now if I had more money. Reckon there’s plenty more upside whether gold shoots up or not. In fact I’d be buying all sorts at these prices  DYOR etc etc.  

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, Banned said:

But how about when directors of building corporation sell £300 million in the past year -

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6074377/Housebuilding-barons-sell-shares-worth-300m-fears-mount-property-market.html

The bosses of Britain’s top housebuilders have cashed in £300million worth of shares between them over the past year.

Our analysis of share sales by building bosses comes as fears rise of a downturn in the market.Upmarket housebuilder Berkeley Group’s founder and chairman Tony Pidgley, a former Barnardo’s boy, has sold £65million of shares in the last 12 months, while chief executive Rob Perrins has cashed in £37million.

The House builder execs are terrible at building decent houses,but superb at selling at the top of the housing market.

[Band]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

The House builder execs are terrible at building decent houses,but superb at selling at the top of the housing market.

Tony Pidgley is clued up

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/constructionandproperty/5649648/Legendary-housebuilder-Tony-Pidgley-calls-time-on-colourful-career.html

Pidgley has gained a reputation for calling property cycles correctly – liquidating assets ahead of the late 1980s housing crash, shifting resources into the blossoming city centre market in the 1990s, and pulling back from volume housebuilding in 2004 ahead of the worst financial crisis since the 1920s.

[DurhamBorn]

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Jackpot today in a Co-op. ,3.30pm nobody in and the guy did final reduction on 11 packs of top quality steak mince,normal price £4.40,down to £1.10 so i bought the lot.Some other very good stuff as well.They have opened an Aldi next door though so i doubt that Co-op will be open long now.Brand new housing estate with them on.Big mortgages and HTB all around that shop,but nobody in at 3.30pm on a Sunday when everything is reduced.

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Even less letting fees come the reform early next year, and if they just tag it onto the landlords letting fee % I can see a lot of them then looking a lot more closely at the service (or lack of) being provided and doing it themselves...result, even less estate agents!

I agree,the idea they'll be able to tag it onto landlords suffering S24 is jsut bollocks.

7 hours ago, Banned said:

But how about when directors of building corporation sell £300 million in the past year -

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-6074377/Housebuilding-barons-sell-shares-worth-300m-fears-mount-property-market.html

The bosses of Britain’s top housebuilders have cashed in £300million worth of shares between them over the past year.

Our analysis of share sales by building bosses comes as fears rise of a downturn in the market.Upmarket housebuilder Berkeley Group’s founder and chairman Tony Pidgley, a former Barnardo’s boy, has sold £65million of shares in the last 12 months, while chief executive Rob Perrins has cashed in £37million.

BKG are roughly where he sold still.

[eek]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Jackpot today in a Co-op. ,3.30pm nobody in and the guy did final reduction on 11 packs of top quality steak mince,normal price £4.40,down to £1.10 so i bought the lot.Some other very good stuff as well.They have opened an Aldi next door though so i doubt that Co-op will be open long now.Brand new housing estate with them on.Big mortgages and HTB all around that shop,but nobody in at 3.30pm on a Sunday when everything is reduced.

Next week you will have competition..... And when the Lidl opens

[DurhamBorn]

3 hours ago, eek said:

Next week you will have competition..... And when the Lidl opens

Lidl going up there as well?.The Aldi is big,feel sorry for the Co-op really there,see if it manages to stay open.

[eek]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Lidl going up there as well?.The Aldi is big,feel sorry for the Co-op really there,see if it manages to stay open.

Yep where SCA was (next to the Solicitor's offices) alongside a Home Bargains and a Starbucks drive through... I'll probably end up going there as its about a 5 minute walk from home

Given the traffic that will be going along West Auckland Road there will be plenty of time to call in on the way into town on a morning...

M&S opens on Wednesday as well....

[sancho panza]

Mish-US housing has peaked this cycle....

 

https://moneymaven.io/mishtalk/economics/mortgage-purchase-applications-decline-4th-week-refinancing-lowest-since-2000-OHHZJe4Z50i4DHrlIbQ9Tg/

 

• Purchase applications for home mortgages fell a seasonally adjusted 2 percent in the August 3 week, posting the fourth weekly decline in a row, while applications for refinancing fell 5 percent to their lowest level since December 2000. Unadjusted, purchase applications were 2 percent below the level a year ago.
• The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 36.6 percent.
• Mortgage rates were steady, with the average interest rate for 30-year fixed rate conforming mortgages ($453,100 or less) remaining unchanged from the prior week at 4.84 percent. Higher interest rates are taking their toll on mortgage activity and the 2 percent year-on-year decline in purchase applications does not bode well for a housing market already showing little life.

The MBA mortgage application index is weekly, thus it's a bit noisy. Nonetheless, it's pretty clear what's happening: Home prices are unaffordable and the Fed is hiking. Refinancing makes no sense.

[Bear Hug]

On 19/08/2018 at 20:12, DurhamBorn said:

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker Jackpot today in a Co-op. ,3.30pm nobody in and the guy did final reduction on 11 packs of top quality steak mince,normal price £4.40,down to £1.10 so i bought the lot.Some other very good stuff as well.They have opened an Aldi next door though so i doubt that Co-op will be open long now.Brand new housing estate with them on.Big mortgages and HTB all around that shop,but nobody in at 3.30pm on a Sunday when everything is reduced.

Have you got a student card for 10% discount at Co-op?  I study as part of my work, so managed to get one for the next 3 years.  Very useful for half price Amazon prime as well.  

Apparently, you can get them for some online courses, although judging by your spending at Co-Op, you probably wouldn't make back £15 or so cost per year (via online course) of getting the card.