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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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"As for the dollar my target was 96.5 and we are there now and i think the follow through might see it hit 97.6.We have a 36 month bullish extreme on the dollar.The 9 day sentiment reading is at 91% bullish,and the numbers i run are exactly where they were when the dollar topped at 103.That is the kind of sentiment you see in a cycle rebound,thats all this is.Everyone wants to be bullish on the dollar,but that will prove very un-profitable from here i think.I expect the dollar to turn lower,a lot lower."

 

Looking like another great call on the dollar DB of a turn around 96/97. Do you have a target in mind for where DXY might fall back to now and are you still bullish about an ultimate rise for DXY to 120 or thereabouts?

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2 minutes ago, Festival said:

"As for the dollar my target was 96.5 and we are there now and i think the follow through might see it hit 97.6.We have a 36 month bullish extreme on the dollar.The 9 day sentiment reading is at 91% bullish,and the numbers i run are exactly where they were when the dollar topped at 103.That is the kind of sentiment you see in a cycle rebound,thats all this is.Everyone wants to be bullish on the dollar,but that will prove very un-profitable from here i think.I expect the dollar to turn lower,a lot lower."

 

Looking like another great call on the dollar DB of a turn around 96/97. Do you have a target in mind for where DXY might fall back to now and are you still bullish about an ultimate rise for DXY to 120 or thereabouts?

Thankyou,the road map we see is 86,but we also see a case for 74.A lot depends on how quickly the liquidity crunch forces people to the dollar.

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Vodafone getting the blame for the IT meltdown at Gatwick today, may be worthwhile keeping an eye short term on the share price to add some more to the pile.

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32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thankyou,the road map we see is 86,but we also see a case for 74.A lot depends on how quickly the liquidity crunch forces people to the dollar.

What do you think that means for the £, how will that react against the dollar?

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21 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

What do you think that means for the £, how will that react against the dollar?

Likely a 12% rebound in the £ ,we are very over sold at the moment.

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A little update on what i see in the gold/PM space.

The commercial net short hit 7000 contracts last week,the second lowest reading since gold bottomed in 1999 in the $200 area.Commercials are positioned long by around 80% on a 5 month trail.Retail (dumb money) reached a DSI (daily sentiment) of below 10%.At the bottom in Jan 2016 they were 9% and the lows in december 11%.

The RSI (relative strength) reached its lowest EVER reading in gold.Even lower than when gold last had a fear fall from $1800 to $1180 from 20012/2013.

Lets look at the miners.

On the CCI indicator (commodity channel index) on the monthly it reached -350,the lowest reading ever in the GDX and lower than when GDX fell from $53 to $17 in 2008.GDX rallied from that point to $62.

So what does the road map point to?.2020 says around $60 in the GDX.Finger in the air id say the GDX might go to $23-$25 by xmas (perhaps even $28),down into spring perhaps then run up to $60 by 2020.

DYOR etc and just what i see myself as possible.

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3 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Vodafone getting the blame for the IT meltdown at Gatwick today, may be worthwhile keeping an eye short term on the share price to add some more to the pile.

Don't have real knowledge but seems like someone cut through a fibre so real blame more likely random guy with a digger than Voodoo itself. 

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Looks like the US doesn't want DXY to get much stronger from here onwards, Trump talking down the $ and Fed chiefs now coming out of the shadows saying they shouldn't allow the yield curve to invert and do whatever it takes to avoid this. Trader sentiment in the Twittersphere points towards DXY going to the 100+ range imminently but looks like @DurhamBorn is going to get this one bang on, Powell is the wildcard, hard to really judge what's he's going to do after the September hike.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Looks like the US doesn't want DXY to get much stronger from here onwards, Trump talking down the $ and Fed chiefs now coming out of the shadows saying they shouldn't allow the yield curve to invert and do whatever it takes to avoid this. Trader sentiment in the Twittersphere points towards DXY going to the 100+ range imminently but looks like @DurhamBorn is going to get this one bang on, Powell is the wildcard, hard to really judge what's he's going to do after the September hike.

I sold my Imperial Brands earlier as they touched £30,i was going to keep them long term,but 25% up in a few months tempted me out pretty much due to sterling being over sold.Im trading far too much at the minute and will be glad when i can go to sleep again for five years.94% retail bulls on the dollar last week,but the commercials were going short and buying the Swiss and the pound.The Fed talking about not letting the curve invert is fuel to the fire for the PMs once the market wakes up to it.The US will get a crisis without an inversion anyway.Too much manipulation at the short end.

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Sideysid said:

Vodafone getting the blame for the IT meltdown at Gatwick today, may be worthwhile keeping an eye short term on the share price to add some more to the pile.

I saw they got an honourable mention in Moneyweek in the form of a 'sell' tip from the Times.I'm about to start accumulating I think.Average in at 175,150,125 and even hopefully 100.I suspect I'll get the first two.

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A little update on what i see in the gold/PM space.

The commercial net short hit 7000 contracts last week,the second lowest reading since gold bottomed in 1999 in the $200 area.Commercials are positioned long by around 80% on a 5 month trail.Retail (dumb money) reached a DSI (daily sentiment) of below 10%.At the bottom in Jan 2016 they were 9% and the lows in december 11%.

The RSI (relative strength) reached its lowest EVER reading in gold.Even lower than when gold last had a fear fall from $1800 to $1180 from 20012/2013.

Lets look at the miners.

On the CCI indicator (commodity channel index) on the monthly it reached -350,the lowest reading ever in the GDX and lower than when GDX fell from $53 to $17 in 2008.GDX rallied from that point to $62.

So what does the road map point to?.2020 says around $60 in the GDX.Finger in the air id say the GDX might go to $23-$25 by xmas (perhaps even $28),down into spring perhaps then run up to $60 by 2020.

DYOR etc and just what i see myself as possible.

Thanks as ever,where do you get the data for this DB is it open access?

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sancho panza

As discussed previously,lot of empty CRE looming in the form of High St shops.Countrywide looks utterly broken to me.

Worth noting how many times recently the big Landlords have taken a whooping Debenhams/HoF............Intu at 25 year lows etc.

The banks as ever, appear to be in denial.There are loans on at least some of these buildings that are going to sour.

Debt for equity I suspect and then another rollover in a couple of years when transactions hit 40 year lows and the lettings fee ban kicks in.

 

http://www.propertyindustryeye.com/countrywide-share-placing-falls-short-at-72-of-acceptances/

This morning Countrywide said it has fallen short of its target in issuing new shares.

It announced to the stock market that the company had received about 72% of acceptances under its open offer. It had planned to raise £28.6m by issuing new ordinary shares, as part of its £140m emergency fund raise.

Its statement said: “On 2 August 2018, the Company announced details of a proposed Firm Placing and Placing and Open Offer (the “Issue”) to raise gross proceeds of £140 million, approximately £111.4 million by way of a Firm Placing of 1,114,419,568 Firm Placing Shares and approximately £28.6 million by way of a Placing and Open Offer of 285,580,431 Open Offer Shares, in each case at an Issue Price of 10 pence per New Ordinary Share.

“The Open Offer closed for acceptances at 11:00 a.m. on 17 August 2018. The Company has received valid acceptances in respect of 206,578,406 Open Offer Shares under the Open Offer.

“This represents approximately 72.34% of the Open Offer Shares offered pursuant to the Open Offer.

“Accordingly, the remaining 79,002,025 Open Offer Shares, representing approximately 27.66% of the Open Offer Shares will be allocated to the Conditional Placees with whom the Open Offer Shares had been conditionally placed under the Placing.

“The Issue remains conditional on, among other things, the approval by the Company’s shareholders at the General Meeting, which will take place at 10:30 a.m. on 28 August 2018.

“The Company will announce the results of the General Meeting as soon as practicable after the meeting concludes. It is expected that Admission will become effective, and that dealings in the New Ordinary Shares on the London Stock Exchange’s main market for listed securities will commence, at 8.00 a.m. on 30 August 2018.”

Meanwhile, shares in Countrywide yesterday had a bumpy day yesterday – despite the business canning plans to pay out some £20m to its top three executives.

At one point they fell almost 7% but picked up to finish the day at about 14.5p, just 1% down.

The pay plan was dependent on the firm’s share price performance over the next three years – but there was an outcry from investors and Countrywide’s own staff.

A week today, Countrywide shareholders are due to vote on the rescue plan to try and resolve its £200m-plus debt mountain.

The money it is looking to raise is considerably more than its market capitalisation, which yesterday afternoon stood at some £76m, according to the London Stock Exchange.'

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16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I sold my Imperial Brands earlier as they touched £30,i was going to keep them long term,but 25% up in a few months tempted me out pretty much due to sterling being over sold.Im trading far too much at the minute and will be glad when i can go to sleep again for five years.94% retail bulls on the dollar last week,but the commercials were going short and buying the Swiss and the pound.The Fed talking about not letting the curve invert is fuel to the fire for the PMs once the market wakes up to it.The US will get a crisis without an inversion anyway.Too much manipulation at the short end.

The funny thing is how history absolutely does repeat itself despite all the "It's different this time", just makes you realise how much rhetorical bullshit is being put out there to manipulate the many whilst the 1% profit from what's to come. Agree with you about the possibility of a recession without inversion, as seen in Japan on many occasions since their deflationary crash.

After some digging found this absolute gem of an article from Dec 2005 when the yield curve very briefly inverted, well worth a read to see just how it mirrors the comments being banded about right now:

https://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_curve/index.htm

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11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I saw they got an honourable mention in Moneyweek in the form of a 'sell' tip from the Times.I'm about to start accumulating I think.Average in at 175,150,125 and even hopefully 100.I suspect I'll get the first two.

Thanks as ever,where do you get the data for this DB is it open access?

No,so i like to put it on here for people because we are out of the way sort of thing.If we had a much bigger readership here id have to only PM it.Some of the data is very expensive,but i get it from someone who gets it from his old contacts.Its not a magic bullet,but it does tend to provide a road map and put risk/reward in our favour.

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sancho panza
3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

The funny thing is how history absolutely does repeat itself despite all the "It's different this time", just makes you realise how much rhetorical bullshit is being put out there to manipulate the many whilst the 1% profit from what's to come.

After some digging found this absolute am of an article from Dec 2005 when the yield curve very briefly inverted, well worth a read to see just how it mirrors the comments being banded about right now:

https://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_curve/index.htm

Nice find.

Incredible how,despite the vast array of evidence urging caution,the fund manager still manages to say 'it's best to sit tight'.

Was looking at a couple of the big pension managers yesterday and there's a couple that are rolling over into bear territory.More and more red flags are lining up.

As per 2007.Looks like the builders have peaked and are rolling over.Other sectors follow,then one of the banks (Italian or Spainish this time I suspect) blows up before all hell breaks loose and US shareholders have used a huge chunk of their profits to buy back shares at market decade highs.

Just my views.DYOR etc

 

 

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sancho panza
5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

No,so i like to put it on here for people because we are out of the way sort of thing.If we had a much bigger readership here id have to only PM it.Some of the data is very expensive,but i get it from someone who gets it from his old contacts.Its not a magic bullet,but it does tend to provide a road map and put risk/reward in our favour.

Cheers DB,much appreciated.

 

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6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

The funny thing is how history absolutely does repeat itself despite all the "It's different this time", just makes you realise how much rhetorical bullshit is being put out there to manipulate the many whilst the 1% profit from what's to come. Agree with you about the possibility of a recession without inversion, as seen in Japan on many occasions since their deflationary crash.

After some digging found this absolute gem of an article from Dec 2005 when the yield curve very briefly inverted, well worth a read to see just how it mirrors the comments being banded about right now:

https://money.cnn.com/2005/12/27/news/economy/inverted_yield_curve/index.htm

Its never ever different,and like you say the dumb money gets fleeced.The young buying with HTB the last few years (and now) will be hurt the most.Leveraged BTL will end up kissing goodbye to the family home as well in many cases.Iv never seen numbers like im seeing on my gold/PM indicators.Two things will happen from here,gold really is dead and the miners go to zero,or many of them go up 1000%.The least amount of people possible are left in the sector and im following my indicators and willing to risk 20% of my capital.

Outside of PMs,strong free cash flow and expensive assets built and paid for are key going forward (competition wont be able to finance building assets).Asset light goodwill based companies will be cleaned out.

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https://www.deathcanary.com/single-post/2017/03/28/The-expected-deep-winter-action-in-one-graph-the-best-graph-ever-in-my-view

 

f74bb4_8543c381477e4b3990d7a12d3ba45805~mv2.webp

The expected deep winter action in one graph : the best graph ever in my view. It tells it all.....must read if you care for your family.

Demography is destiny. What we are facing....... in one graph. The best canary graph ever in my view. A  young society creates inflation ( like in the mid 70's to mid 80's ), an aging society creates  deflation. As you can see deep winter action likely till 2022. It is going to get  very painful, like we already witnessed in 2016. THE graph of the Trumpdepression....keep this graph in mind. Will there still be canaries alive by 2022 ? Probably the voters of Trump sense this, smell this .....The mission of the canary is to be a good advisor ( investment and people ) and to try to save lives.....because a lot of lives will be destroyed in the 1929 - 1933 remake.....These deflation figures means Dow Jones 5.000 because valuations of assets need to take this price pressure into account. The asset sale of a lifetime is underway. Not any banker or bankster will show you this.......Dead canary
 
 
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Notice the bit about buying on Moscow exchange 'for now'. I wonder what the reaction would be if Russia entered the New York/London gold markets with billions to spend and insisted on delivery?

 

Russia buys 839,000 ozs of gold in July as it diversifies reserves from USD

  • 25-ton addition brings Russia’s Central Bank holdings to 1,969 tons; the world's 5th largest gold reserves
  • Central bank buying Russian gold on Moscow Exchange for now
  • Russia sees gold’s role as independent currency and safe haven as is a “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”
  • Russia now has total gold reserves worth  just $76 billion; Dumped $90 billion of US Treasuries in April and May

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-21/russia-buys-over-800000-ounces-gold-july-it-dumps-us-treasuries

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I sold my Imperial Brands earlier as they touched £30,i was going to keep them long term,but 25% up in a few months tempted me out pretty much due to sterling being over sold.Im trading far too much at the minute and will be glad when i can go to sleep again for five years.94% retail bulls on the dollar last week,but the commercials were going short and buying the Swiss and the pound.The Fed talking about not letting the curve invert is fuel to the fire for the PMs once the market wakes up to it.The US will get a crisis without an inversion anyway.Too much manipulation at the short end.

Funny enough, I sold mine yesterday along with GSK after both have done well over the last few months. Bought a few miners instead and a few kilos of silver on Bullion Vault. No real idea what the hell I'm doing, but I'm learning. Only dog for me so far is Vodafone having bought at 190. BT for me doing ok after getting a large position back when it was 204. Not really sure what to do with that as it's by far my biggest holding.

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Talking Monkey
42 minutes ago, Errol said:

Notice the bit about buying on Moscow exchange 'for now'. I wonder what the reaction would be if Russia entered the New York/London gold markets with billions to spend and insisted on delivery?

 

Russia buys 839,000 ozs of gold in July as it diversifies reserves from USD

  • 25-ton addition brings Russia’s Central Bank holdings to 1,969 tons; the world's 5th largest gold reserves
  • Central bank buying Russian gold on Moscow Exchange for now
  • Russia sees gold’s role as independent currency and safe haven as is a “100% guarantee from legal and political risks”
  • Russia now has total gold reserves worth  just $76 billion; Dumped $90 billion of US Treasuries in April and May

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-08-21/russia-buys-over-800000-ounces-gold-july-it-dumps-us-treasuries

how come gold declined whilst they were buying so much of it

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2 minutes ago, harp said:

Funny enough, I sold mine yesterday along with GSK after both have done well over the last few months. Bought a few miners instead and a few kilos of silver on Bullion Vault. No real idea what the hell I'm doing, but I'm learning. Only dog for me so far is Vodafone having bought at 190. BT for me doing ok after getting a large position back when it was 204. Not really sure what to do with that as it's by far my biggest holding.

I have owned Imperial on and off since i was 18.I used to own Hanson Trust who owned Imperial,it has made me crazy money over the years.I sold it at £38 and bought back in the £23s and sold it as a 25% return in a few months in a stock like that is not to be sniffed at.Iv got some VOD at £1.90 and a lot more at £1.75,id buy more at £1.50.I got a lot of them with money from selling Drax for a 50% return and id be quite happy if i was down 10%/15% on VOD when it turned.I used to work for GSK,did 10 years with them,thats where i met the guy who taught me macro work.He was there to sort out their pension schemes.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Sydney down 5.6%.

 

It's going to be interesting to see whether the momentum builds.

https://www.businessinsider.com.au/housing-australian-property-corelogic-house-prices-2018-8

 

Australian house prices ticked lower last week, falling by 0.1% across Australia’s five largest capitals.

Weekly data from CoreLogic showed the declines were led by Melbourne and Brisbane, which fell by 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.

Elsewhere, the Sydney market held flat on a weekly basis for the first time since early June. Adelaide and Perth were also flat.

cl-1.jpgSource: CoreLogic

The latest results mark the fourth straight week — and fifth week out of the last six — that Melbourne led declines in major markets.

Price changes in annual terms for the Melbourne market have fallen from a gain of 0.2% to a loss of 1.4% over that six-week period.

Annual price falls for the Sydney market were unchanged last week at 5.6%.

Last week, a quarterly report by consulting firm RiskWise Property Research assessed the risk outlook for houses and units for all eight states and territories.

Tasmania’s housing market was the only market deemed to be low-risk, while NSW was considered to be medium-risk for houses and units.

 

Victoria was deemed low-medium risk for housing and medium risk for units.

Across the major markets, last week’s price action coincided with a decline in the number of successful auctions compared to the week prior.

Preliminary data from CoreLogic showed 868 properties went to auction in Melbourne over the weekend, returning a clearance rate of 55.7% (down from 61.3%).

Sydney’s preliminary clearance rate was 56.5% on 572 auctions, down from 59.1% last week.

cl-2.jpgSource: CoreLogic

Once again, unit auctions had a higher success rate than houses, after a brief reversal the week prior when houses outperformed units.

For the second straight week, the number of new property listings — properties listed within the last six months — increased across all five major capitals.

Including Hobart, Darwin and Canberra, the number of new property listing compared to the same time last year was down 3.7%.

cl-3.jpg

Cross post from the Aussie thread.Key thing over the next few years is going to be what happens when the losses start coming and we start getting credit deflation of bank balance sheets.I think the Aussies could be first up.No recession in 27 years....

 

Oz has been in the sweet spot for years but Chinese demand for coal/iron ore has dropped off(something like 30% of Ozzie exports https://dfat.gov.au/trade/resources/trade-at-a-glance/pages/top-goods-services.aspx  ), Chinese capital controls, debt laden consumers, Basel rules...lot of things combining at one time.

 

Going to be fascinating to see what happens as the falls start running more and more people into negative equity and more and more banks into capital losses.

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its never ever different,and like you say the dumb money gets fleeced.The young buying with HTB the last few years (and now) will be hurt the most.Leveraged BTL will end up kissing goodbye to the family home as well in many cases.Iv never seen numbers like im seeing on my gold/PM indicators.Two things will happen from here,gold really is dead and the miners go to zero,or many of them go up 1000%.The least amount of people possible are left in the sector and im following my indicators and willing to risk 20% of my capital.

Outside of PMs,strong free cash flow and expensive assets built and paid for are key going forward (competition wont be able to finance building assets).Asset light goodwill based companies will be cleaned out.

I'm always surprised by how few accidental/and even intentional LL's realise their family home is in the credit chain.

The first bit in bold overrides everything.To make money long term you have to move away from the retail herd that's being lined up to take the losses either by selling early or not just getting involved at all

1 hour ago, Banned said:

https://www.deathcanary.com/single-post/2017/03/28/The-expected-deep-winter-action-in-one-graph-the-best-graph-ever-in-my-view

 

f74bb4_8543c381477e4b3990d7a12d3ba45805~mv2.webp

The expected deep winter action in one graph : the best graph ever in my view. It tells it all.....must read if you care for your family.

Demography is destiny. What we are facing....... in one graph. The best canary graph ever in my view. A  young society creates inflation ( like in the mid 70's to mid 80's ), an aging society creates  deflation. As you can see deep winter action likely till 2022. It is going to get  very painful, like we already witnessed in 2016. THE graph of the Trumpdepression....keep this graph in mind. Will there still be canaries alive by 2022 ? Probably the voters of Trump sense this, smell this .....The mission of the canary is to be a good advisor ( investment and people ) and to try to save lives.....because a lot of lives will be destroyed in the 1929 - 1933 remake.....These deflation figures means Dow Jones 5.000 because valuations of assets need to take this price pressure into account. The asset sale of a lifetime is underway. Not any banker or bankster will show you this.......Dead canary
 
 

Thanks for that.Intersting chart.

Demographics is Paul Hodges main thesis on whats coming

https://www.icis.com/blogs/chemicals-and-the-economy/

Great blog.

 

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11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Likely a 12% rebound in the £ ,we are very over sold at the moment.

 

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

A little update on what i see in the gold/PM space.

The commercial net short hit 7000 contracts last week,the second lowest reading since gold bottomed in 1999 in the $200 area.Commercials are positioned long by around 80% on a 5 month trail.Retail (dumb money) reached a DSI (daily sentiment) of below 10%.At the bottom in Jan 2016 they were 9% and the lows in december 11%.

The RSI (relative strength) reached its lowest EVER reading in gold.Even lower than when gold last had a fear fall from $1800 to $1180 from 20012/2013.

Lets look at the miners.

On the CCI indicator (commodity channel index) on the monthly it reached -350,the lowest reading ever in the GDX and lower than when GDX fell from $53 to $17 in 2008.GDX rallied from that point to $62.

So what does the road map point to?.2020 says around $60 in the GDX.Finger in the air id say the GDX might go to $23-$25 by xmas (perhaps even $28),down into spring perhaps then run up to $60 by 2020.

DYOR etc and just what i see myself as possible.

Presumably with both £ and GDX potentially going up, there is some period of time when it could be worth keeping some cash uninvested in miners, in case they get even cheaper?

Or do you expect the potential GDX move up to be much quicker than potential £ move up?

Thanks

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2 hours ago, harp said:

Funny enough, I sold mine yesterday along with GSK after both have done well over the last few months. Bought a few miners instead and a few kilos of silver on Bullion Vault. No real idea what the hell I'm doing, but I'm learning. Only dog for me so far is Vodafone having bought at 190. BT for me doing ok after getting a large position back when it was 204. Not really sure what to do with that as it's by far my biggest holding.

This is very similar to my BT and VOD position.  Kept out out of stocks for ages but started to worry about cash earning only ~2% and pound simultaneously dropping.  

Net effect is zero so far: huge BT position's gain is offsetting VOD, GDX and various smaller FTSE350 losses

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25 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 

Presumably with both £ and GDX potentially going up, there is some period of time when it could be worth keeping some cash uninvested in miners, in case they get even cheaper?

Or do you expect the potential GDX move up to be much quicker than potential £ move up?

Thanks

Miners should outperform sterling,im looking for 25 in GDX or maybe even 28,a pull back into next spring then off to the races up to perhaps the $60 area.Of couse thats just potential,but the risk reward is very much in favour.

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