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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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20 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

This is very similar to my BT and VOD position.  Kept out out of stocks for ages but started to worry about cash earning only ~2% and pound simultaneously dropping.  

Net effect is zero so far: huge BT position's gain is offsetting VOD, GDX and various smaller FTSE350 losses

Remember BT are ex dividend 10p and Vod have just paid out a 9p dividend.When buying stocks with those sized dividends they are a big part of the total return.I bought BT around £2.04 so its £2.25 + 10p dividend up.I actually top sliced my holding after it went ex divi.

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Agent ZigZag
35 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

 Likely a 12% rebound in the £ ,we are very over sold at the moment.

 

Quote

12% rebound is a huge bounce back. I agree oversold but not by that much which is why I have been holding back with cash reserves in £ for the last two months, probably too much.  Such a rebound would take us back to where we were earlier this year. What time frame do you have for this rebound. 

 

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13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Remember BT are ex dividend 10p and Vod have just paid out a 9p dividend.When buying stocks with those sized dividends they are a big part of the total return.I bought BT around £2.04 so its £2.25 + 10p dividend up.I actually top sliced my holding after it went ex divi.

Good point.  I bought Vod ex-div but will receive the BT one.  So I am pretty much exactly BT dividend in profit (ignoring any transaction charges if I was to dispose of my holdings immediately).  Not bad.  And thanks again

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9 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

 

 

No timescale,they arent trading calls they are road maps.If we didnt get a debt deflation (we will) sterling is probably undervalued to the $ by around 21% so i expect it to claw back just over half of that.There is a lot in flux at the moment and a lot depends on when the liquidity cuts kick off the debt deflation.

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3 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Happy "longest S&P 500 bull run in history" day everyone!

$920 billion market cap on Amazon.So the market is saying at some point not too far away Amazon will have net free cash flow of $80 billion a year xD.I think Amazon shares will fall 90%+

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21 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

I missed out on buying BT, do you think their shares have much further to rise ?

?

BT has been on a downward trend over the last 30 months, halving in value.  It is still in that downward trend, albeit is currently at the top of its 'channel'.    

DB is suggesting that a reversal will occur.  Who knows if its already started (in June) or if it'll have another bounce downwards.  

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

?

BT has been on a downward trend over the last 30 months, halving in value.  It is still in that downward trend, albeit is currently at the top of its 'channel'.    

DB is suggesting that a reversal will occur.  Who knows if its already started (in June) or if it'll have another bounce downwards.  

For shares exact timing usually isn't the issue you just need to be in the correct position when the trend is turning...

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2 hours ago, ashestoashes said:

I missed out on buying BT, do you think their shares have much further to rise ?

I have a holding in BT, probably slightly down at the moment as I've averaged in.


My only concern with BT is the possibility that the regulator forces a split with the Openreach division being hived off. I used to be an Engineer with Openreach and the value of the Company was in the Copper network to consumers houses and the Fibre DSLAM network. I used to do installations on behalf of Sky, TalkTalk, Vodafone etc. Those Companies are very critical of the ownership of Openreach by BT.  To my mind that would make BT worth a lot less than it is now!


Not sure how that would work, but possibly Openreach taken into Government public ownership, effectively re nationalized??

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7 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I have a holding in BT, probably slightly down at the moment as I've averaged in.


My only concern with BT is the possibility that the regulator forces a split with the Openreach division being hived off. I used to be an Engineer with Openreach and the value of the Company was in the Copper network to consumers houses and the Fibre DSLAM network. I used to do installations on behalf of Sky, TalkTalk, Vodafone etc. Those Companies are very critical of the ownership of Openreach by BT.  To my mind that would make BT worth a lot less than it is now!


Not sure how that would work, but possibly Openreach taken into Government public ownership, effectively re nationalized??

Surely it would be 2 separate companies with shares in openreach given to all BT shareholders..

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21 minutes ago, eek said:

Surely it would be 2 separate companies with shares in openreach given to all BT shareholders..

But then the question is: what is the added value of having the close relationship between Openreach and BT.  If they're completely independent and both money making, fine -- but if BT sells more because of Openreach (which is profit making in its own right), and will sell less if they lose control, then the post-split world will be less rewarding, regardless of the ownership of both elements.

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I've just spoken to an Openreach Engineer (on my road) 10mins ago on the above topic. He was saying they are slowly getting rid of BT logo's / signage etc, apart from that he knows fuck all. Just thought I'd pass the 'inside' info on xD

 

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21 minutes ago, harp said:

I've just spoken to an Openreach Engineer (on my road) 10mins ago on the above topic. He was saying they are slowly getting rid of BT logo's / signage etc, apart from that he knows fuck all. Just thought I'd pass the 'inside' info on xD

 

https://www.computerweekly.com/news/252443091/Ofcom-satisfied-with-progress-on-BT-Openreach-split has an upto date overview

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The fun part of BT and Openreach is that despite both being part of the same company they don’t talk to each other.

I wasted a day a few years ago, waiting for an Openreach engineer to put in a new line for broadband access, where he never turned up. Turned out that they’d rescheduled, but BT apparently never received this information.

So I rescheduled for the following week. A few days later whilst I’m at work I receive a call from the Openreach chap telling me he’s outside my front door. BT hadn’t then bothered to tell Openreach the date I’d rescheduled for, so Openreach stuck to the date they’d rescheduled for after cancelling. Fun times!

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Democorruptcy
8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

$920 billion market cap on Amazon.So the market is saying at some point not too far away Amazon will have net free cash flow of $80 billion a year xD.I think Amazon shares will fall 90%+

Didn't you short Amazon, is it still running?

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May as well join in the discount posts. As mentioned before I live in a diverse London suburb, so I tend to find pork reductions abundantly.

In Iceland I picked up 3kg of pork loins at £2.50 each reduced from £5 each. 2 maple glazed pork loins at £1.25 each reduced from £2.50, gammon joint £2.00 from £4.00, some bacon reduced down to 50p. Lower fat mince 500g reduced to a £1. My limitation is freezer space otherwise I would fill up more.

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Didn't you short Amazon, is it still running?

I closed a small short out for a 7% loss.I was going to short them and Netflix and a few others on a staircase,but decided i didnt want to use leveraged products or tie up capital so havent bothered.I must admit i am very tempted though to perhaps open a new Amazon short now.The price is beyond crazy and will see huge losses,its just when.

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36 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

May as well join in the discount posts. As mentioned before I live in a diverse London suburb, so I tend to find pork reductions abundantly.

In Iceland I picked up 3kg of pork loins at £2.50 each reduced from £5 each. 2 maple glazed pork loins at £1.25 each reduced from £2.50, gammon joint £2.00 from £4.00, some bacon reduced down to 50p. Lower fat mince 500g reduced to a £1. My limitation is freezer space otherwise I would fill up more.

Funny enough i tried Iceland this morning at 8.30am,they must reduce as they open and a got a couple of nice items,only 50% off,but still good.Im very lucky in that i have them and every other supermarket within a few hundred yards so it costs nothing in diesel.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I closed a small short out for a 7% loss.I was going to short them and Netflix and a few others on a staircase,but decided i didnt want to use leveraged products or tie up capital so havent bothered.I must admit i am very tempted thou'gh to perhaps open a new Amazon short now.The price is beyond crazy and will see huge losses,its just when. 

This is what i imagine 2001 looked like at the time, buy Tech and youll be rich!  

The extra $460-470 bn in value that Amazon gained since Aug/Sept 17 alone would place it about the 26th largest economy in the world.

The total Mcap of $920bn is not for off the GDP of Indonesia, a country with a population of 261 Million....

Emotions (greed) are in charge, thus there is no way of knowing when it will turn.  Anyone shorting this is a braver man than I!

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3,453 days later, the US bull market becomes the longest on record

  • Investors should not fret over the longest-running bull market milestone, but should focus on the solid underpinnings driving the run.
  • The current bull market rally, which started March 9, 2009, became the longest one on record since World War II on Wednesday by avoiding a 20 percent or more decline, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
  • The market has risen more than 300 percent since its low nine years ago. It surpassed the rally from 1990 to early 2000, which totaled 3,452 days.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/longest-bull-market-since-world-war-ii-likely-to-go-on-because-us-is-best-game-in-town.html

What could possibly go wrong...?

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2018-08-22_12-20-48.jpg?itok=4ukNs_js2018-08-22_12-19-44.jpg?itok=8wEEgWWm

31 minutes ago, BearyBear said:

3,453 days later, the US bull market becomes the longest on record

If the central banks keep printing money, the feel good times will continue forever!  The converging trend over 10 years is a little too close to be a coincidence, are we really that far down the rabbit hole that there is no price discovery at all in the stock market?  Explains comatose gold and silver...

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sancho panza

 

 

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

This is what i imagine 2001 looked like at the time, buy Tech and youll be rich!  

The extra $460-470 bn in value that Amazon gained since Aug/Sept 17 alone would place it about the 26th largest economy in the world.

The total Mcap of $920bn is not for off the GDP of Indonesia, a country with a population of 261 Million....

Emotions (greed) are in charge, thus there is no way of knowing when it will turn.  Anyone shorting this is a braver man than I!

Absolutely.It's a pure momo stock.For me the long term indicators are still up.But then I'm biased because I don't have the cahunas to time the turn

 

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, BearyBear said:

 

  • Investors should not fret over the longest-running bull market milestone, but should focus on the solid underpinnings driving the run.
  • The current bull market rally, which started March 9, 2009, became the longest one on record since World War II on Wednesday by avoiding a 20 percent or more decline, according to S&P Dow Jones Indices.
  • The market has risen more than 300 percent since its low nine years ago. It surpassed the rally from 1990 to early 2000, which totaled 3,452 days.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/22/longest-bull-market-since-world-war-ii-likely-to-go-on-because-us-is-best-game-in-town.html

What could possibly go wrong...?

The underpinnings being QE and bank leverage underpinned by eternal QE.

48 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

2018-08-22_12-20-48.jpg?itok=4ukNs_js2018-08-22_12-19-44.jpg?itok=8wEEgWWm

If the central banks keep printing money, the feel good times will continue forever!  The converging trend over 10 years is a little too close to be a coincidence, are we really that far down the rabbit hole that there is no price discovery at all in the stock market?  Explains comatose gold and silver...

Super charts MP,the correlation is intriguing.

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