Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Gordie Lastchance]

1 hour ago, harp said:

So when do we back the truck up and buy Silver again?

Everything seems to be getting hammered recently, miners, Vod, BT, CNA and the rest of the defensives. Sitting in cash again with just a few k in miners/bullionvault.

Silver's had a rocky ride today, hasn't it!

Currently £11.03 an oz and down 28p or 2.48%. Although it was as low as £10.94 at one point today.

It was over £12 a month ago and nearly £14 this time last year.

Info from coininvest.

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

11 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

It's painful at the moment seeing it at $1.28, but a few factors may assist in turning things back to $1.40-1.45.

The dollar is at or very near peak, September rate hike fully priced in with doubts now surfacing regarding the path thereafter, also interesting to refer back to the COT report and note that commercials are now record levels long Yen (safe haven in a crisis), which ties in nicely with @DurhamBorn's prediction of a strengthening of Yen/EUR. 

I'm now starting to have doubts about the Euro though given the rapidly shifting political momentum and potential banking crisis in Spain/Italy/Poland from EM contagion. The EU may want to calm waters somewhat by being as diplomatic as possible with the UK as they begin to drown in their own political crisis. All eyes on the Swedish elections 9th September, along with developing situation in Italy of course and Czech Republic/Poland/Austria/Hungary. Lets not forget that the ECB will be going into the next recession with negative interest rates and a potential bond bubble bursting (QE was 7x net issuances last October, madness), let's see how they get on with their QT.

 

Talking of the COT report & Larry Williams being mentioned by DB...

 

I thought I'd share this: Larry Williams has been making stock market forecasts for decades, and each year sells a forecasting REPORT ...price $180.00!

 

This forecast is for Short-Term, Intermediate Term, Long Term, Swing Traders and Investors.

This Forecast gives traders perspective.

1) You will know in advance when markets should reverse (ie trend change).
2) This report's road maps forecast the significant highs & lows.
3) This report's road map's forecast gives you the overall trend direction for the rest of the year for all major markets... now.

Anyhoo...online I found Larry Williams forecast 2018 Report at the reduced section... BARGAIN price 1p ...HA-ha!

NO need for YOU folks to pay, get it for FREE, Nought, nil, nada, nothing, zero, zilch ...by going to this link: http://www.mediafire.com/file/m58ba9xhmu09aj4/ and clinking the green download bar button!

ENJOY the pdf book report, & let me know ya thoughts!

[Barnsey]

11 minutes ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

Silver's had a rocky ride today, hasn't it!

Currently £11.03 an oz and down 28p or 2.48%. Although it was as low as £10.94 at one point today.

It was over £12 a month ago and nearly £14 this time last year.

Info from coininvest.

Due to Brexit related rapid £ swings I only ever look at prices in $ to save any confusion

[leonardratso]

1p sounds a bit steep to me, ill have a look @0p tho. I dont hold out much hope hahaha.

[leonardratso]

had a quick flick thru, looks like gartman to me, a great anti barometer, what ever gartman does, do the opposite.

[Errol]

Gold And Silver Are Set-Up To Soar

The chart below illustrates the extreme positioning by speculators in gold, interest rates and the stock market:

The graphic shows the net short position of non-commercials (managed money, other institutional pools of investment money and retail traders) in gold futures, 10yr Treasury futures and VIX futures. It’s the largest bet in history by speculators that gold and 10yr Treasury bonds will go a lot lower and the stock market will go a lot higher (volatility declines as stocks rise so a short-VIX bet is a bet stocks go higher).

When positioned at an extreme like this, speculators are always wrong.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-are-set-up-to-soar/

[sleepwello'nights]

On ‎03‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 14:26, ashestoashes said:

vodafone just at 166.66 - a sign ?

Humph!

[sleepwello'nights]

9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

 

Harry Dent is one of the few people who's been more wrong than me over the last ten years.But he has sold a lot of books and I love his talks.

I agree with his perspective though. Growth rates must fall as the demographics show that the population is ageing and us older people have less need to spend on things we already have. 

Do you think his forecasts have been wrong because he didn't take into account the actions that governments and central banks took to stop the fundamentals affecting the economy?

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I agree with his perspective though. Growth rates must fall as the demographics show that the population is ageing and us older people have less need to spend on things we already have. 

Do you think his forecasts have been wrong because he didn't take into account the actions that governments and central banks took to stop the fundamentals affecting the economy?

Buy Hornby. buy Gibson. Lap up that boomer money while you can.

[leonardratso]

currently the shares i have are a load of old codswallop, but the same i have in mutual funds are still growing quite well. Mind you the mutual funds are mainly USA tech stuff.

PM miners a load of old crap in my portfolio, Im not too bothered about them though cos they were at best a ladbrokes gamble with comensurate low amounts in them.

[SillyBilly]

5 hours ago, harp said:

So when do we back the truck up and buy Silver again?

Everything seems to be getting hammered recently, miners, Vod, BT, CNA and the rest of the defensives. Sitting in cash again with just a few k in miners/bullionvault.

Patience is key IMO. I have a fair amount in silver stocks (First Majestic my largest holding) to which I am in the red at present but not intending to add until we're in recession and everything is tumbling, silver included. Currently my dry powder is having twice my annual salary sat in my current account ready to go in when the s**t has hit the fan and most will be in silver. That won't go into the market until there is sheer panic on the markets, I want to be buying during the height of the s**tstorm when everyone is dumping for cash.Cash is king for me at the moment, nothing is appealing to me for new money. 

[Bear Hug]

5 hours ago, harp said:

So when do we back the truck up and buy Silver again?

Everything seems to be getting hammered recently, miners, Vod, BT, CNA and the rest of the defensives. Sitting in cash again with just a few k in miners/bullionvault.

 

25 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

currently the shares i have are a load of old codswallop, but the same i have in mutual funds are still growing quite well. Mind you the mutual funds are mainly USA tech stuff.

PM miners a load of old crap in my portfolio, Im not too bothered about them though cos they were at best a ladbrokes gamble with comensurate low amounts in them.

Agreed - I am grateful that my laziness and low choice and charges of my work's DC scheme meant that majority of my funds is still sitting in US trackers. 

BT has done well, everything else is not great.  Looks I picked a bear market to become "active" with my cash yet again.

Wonder what it would take for Vod to go up.  No obviously bad news are coming up but it's still going down.

[leonardratso]

ive made good on drax and bt, and i keep scalping them for some beer money, but the rest be cock mr mainwaring.

[sancho panza]

A you couldn't make it up contender.

Woodford times his entry into the builders the day they get smashed................

 

Citywire 4/9/18

 

'Woodford cuts Lloyds stake to load up on builders.'

Barratt Developments is now Woodford's second largest holding as fund group hails 'compelling valuation opportunities' in house builders.'

[A_P]

11 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

A you couldn't make it up contender.

Woodford times his entry into the builders the day they get smashed................

 

Citywire 4/9/18

 

'Woodford cuts Lloyds stake to load up on builders.'

Barratt Developments is now Woodford's second largest holding as fund group hails 'compelling valuation opportunities' in house builders.'

That really is quite an odd purchase. But with all this murmuring about HTB the last few days it kinda smells a bit fishy.

[Band]

12 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

 That really is quite an odd purchase. But with all this murmuring about HTB the last few days it kinda smells a bit fishy.

Im thinking a change in leadership and HTB will be ended, if we have Hammond and Carney its trebles all round for the builders.

[A_P]

5 minutes ago, Banned said:

Im thinking a change in leadership and HTB will be ended, if we have Hammond and Carney its trebles all round for the builders.

Well I think in the short term it will be extended to 2022 after reading Nationwide's press release. They will then restrict it to first time buyers. Then as bit of a wild guess, they up the equity loan portion to 50-60% in london, 25-40% outside. In addition local councils start buying the excess stock.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

1 hour ago, SillyBilly said:

Patience is key IMO. I have a fair amount in silver stocks (First Majestic my largest holding) to which I am in the red at present but not intending to add until we're in recession and everything is tumbling, silver included. Currently my dry powder is having twice my annual salary sat in my current account ready to go in when the s**t has hit the fan and most will be in silver. That won't go into the market until there is sheer panic on the markets, I want to be buying during the height of the s**tstorm when everyone is dumping for cash.Cash is king for me at the moment, nothing is appealing to me for new money. 

Do you not think its wise to add a bit before the recession? If everyone rushes to PMs they'll jump up in price. I'm making small purchases in silver just in case a sudden recession doesn't see the usual drop in PMs. Silver's price is near to its extraction cost, difficult to see it go down much more in price. 

[Majorpain]

#notabubble

7 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Do you not think its wise to add a bit before the recession? If everyone rushes to PMs they'll jump up in price. I'm making small purchases in silver just in case a sudden recession doesn't see the usual drop in PMs. Silver's price is near to its extraction cost, difficult to see it go down much more in price. 

Look like PM's were pricing in the fed not raising rates two more times this year, Fed came out today and said two more hikes is still the plan.  I suspect that PM's will remain subdued until the market smells the fed has lost control and/or something breaks (that was DB's theory i think).  I dont think its possible to time when that will be.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

I agree with his perspective though. Growth rates must fall as the demographics show that the population is ageing and us older people have less need to spend on things we already have. 

Do you think his forecasts have been wrong because he didn't take into account the actions that governments and central banks took to stop the fundamentals affecting the economy?

The main reason I've been wrong in general terms is that I massively underestimated the willingness of the political classes to try and plug holes in a sinking ship with the futures of our young peole.On that I was wrong.

Trades are trades.Like Prechter before him, Dent would have lost you a lot of money.

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

It's painful at the moment seeing it at $1.28, but a few factors may assist in turning things back to $1.40-1.45.

The dollar is at or very near peak, September rate hike fully priced in with doubts now surfacing regarding the path thereafter, also interesting to refer back to the COT report and note that commercials are now record levels long Yen (safe haven in a crisis), which ties in nicely with @DurhamBorn's prediction of a strengthening of Yen/EUR. 

I'm now starting to have doubts about the Euro though given the rapidly shifting political momentum and potential banking crisis in Spain/Italy/Poland from EM contagion. The EU may want to calm waters somewhat by being as diplomatic as possible with the UK as they begin to drown in their own political crisis. All eyes on the Swedish elections 9th September, along with developing situation in Italy of course and Czech Republic/Poland/Austria/Hungary. Lets not forget that the ECB will be going into the next recession with negative interest rates and a potential bond bubble bursting (QE was 7x net issuances last October, madness), let's see how they get on with their QT.

I think the Eurohe is toast even without the Populists rising.It's hard tosee the way out for the EU.I suspect it's break up will make Brexit look like a cake walk.Ironically I think it'll be the EE nations that force it apart.

3 hours ago, Errol said:

Gold And Silver Are Set-Up To Soar

The chart below illustrates the extreme positioning by speculators in gold, interest rates and the stock market:

The graphic shows the net short position of non-commercials (managed money, other institutional pools of investment money and retail traders) in gold futures, 10yr Treasury futures and VIX futures. It’s the largest bet in history by speculators that gold and 10yr Treasury bonds will go a lot lower and the stock market will go a lot higher (volatility declines as stocks rise so a short-VIX bet is a bet stocks go higher).

When positioned at an extreme like this, speculators are always wrong.

http://investmentresearchdynamics.com/gold-and-silver-are-set-up-to-soar/

Hell of a chart Errol.

 

46 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Well I think in the short term it will be extended to 2022 after reading Nationwide's press release. They will then restrict it to first time buyers. Then as bit of a wild guess, they up the equity loan portion to 50-60% in london, 25-40% outside. In addition local councils start buying the excess stock.

 

22 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

#notabubble

Look like PM's were pricing in the fed not raising rates two more times this year, Fed came out today and said two more hikes is still the plan.  I suspect that PM's will remain subdued until the market smells the fed has lost control and/or something breaks (that was DB's theory i think).  I dont think its possible to time when that will be.

Another crackking graph.Sums the madness up beautifully.

PM's are hard to read chart wise but I'll be buying antoher tranche before the bubble pops.

[Barnsey]

And so the HTB crisis begins...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6131611/Help-Buy-left-trapped.html

The idea was that they would stay in the flat for a few years while saving for a larger deposit. Then, when they sold the property, they could use this, plus any profit they had made through rising house prices, to afford a new home.

But since they bought their flat in September 2015, its market value has fallen by 15 pc to £175,000.

[Option5]

8 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

And so the HTB crisis begins...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6131611/Help-Buy-left-trapped.html

The idea was that they would stay in the flat for a few years while saving for a larger deposit. Then, when they sold the property, they could use this, plus any profit they had made through rising house prices, to afford a new home.

But since they bought their flat in September 2015, its market value has fallen by 15 pc to £175,000.

Aberdeen is a very strange market, the oil industry distorts the house prices.

[DurhamBorn]

16 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Cash is a very good place to be at the moment IMO, Silver price is pretty much at cost right now for the miners but looks like it may have further downside in the global crash, possibly towards $11. I wouldn't say no to averaging in gradually at the moment given where the price is predicted to reach in the next 3 years, and also given the commercial net long position highlighted on this thread, it's a pretty good indicator we're near or at the bottom.

Gold looks like it may weaken a little further (Yuan devaluation if U.S. imposes $200 billion of tariffs tomorrow/next couple weeks). DXY very unlikely to strengthen much further though, think @DurhamBorn call of 96.5 is spot on, may creep a little above for a brief period. Really is a matter of seeing what the next couple of months brings and how that influences the midterms, quite a ride ahead buckle your seatbelts!

Dollar 96 area then down to 92,gold and the miners will be choppy due to the sentiment indicators,they are hated,but i have had no problems building my miner holdings in this area,more downside or not,pegging the bottom isnt an aim.Some miners are doing ok though,the SA miners have seen margins expand 17% in the last few weeks thanks to the Rand falling so hard and iv no doubt they will be locking in a lot through hedging the currency now.If gold then runs profits will explode higher.

Im slowly stair case buying into selected telcos and a few others as well.Its likely there could be more downside and my stair case would be full if they all go down another 30% from here.That would mean 60% to 80% falls from their highs and of course at the divis on offer that would slice away a lot of those falls going forward even if divi's are cut.The market is making a mistake as expected in that is isnt seeing the reflation cycle coming and the affect that has on companies who's depreciation cycle is around 10-15 years.

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

And so the HTB crisis begins...

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-6131611/Help-Buy-left-trapped.html

The idea was that they would stay in the flat for a few years while saving for a larger deposit. Then, when they sold the property, they could use this, plus any profit they had made through rising house prices, to afford a new home.

But since they bought their flat in September 2015, its market value has fallen by 15 pc to £175,000.

Just starting isnt it Barnsey,one of the big areas we have highlighted on here.These people will take the bulk of the pain,they walked into no mans land in the dark and now the flares are going up and they find they are stuck on the barbed wire staring at the machine guns.