Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

1 minute ago, Thorn said:

Nah.

I’d say Not One.

haha, i concur,  last night of the proms wont exactly attract the lowly wage earners.

[dgul]

2 minutes ago, Thorn said:

Nah.

I’d say Not One.

LNOTP isn't for the posh folk, it's for proles that like to think that they're posh folk.  The posh ones go to normal concerts/ballet/opera.

[Thorn]

13 minutes ago, dgul said:

LNOTP isn't for the posh folk, it's for proles that like to think that they're posh folk.  The posh ones go to normal concerts/ballet/opera.

Fair Point.

Do you reckon there are a lot of renting millenials watching it?

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I had a perusal of the share prices in the Times today. What surprised me are the number of companies with their share prices at 12 month lows or marginally above. If you look at the banks, Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds all closed yesterday at a 12 month low. RBS is marginally above their 12 month low. Similar thing in other sectors. 

Lots of ordinary shares are rolling over using longer term charts.

There's a few special stocks and some big cahuna burger sectors making it all look good.My short portfolio is expanding daily,which is stange but then it's driven by charts not by my tea leaves work.

Case in point

[azzuri82]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Lots of ordinary shares are rolling over using longer term charts.

There's a few special stocks and some big cahuna burger sectors making it all look good.My short portfolio is expanding daily,which is stange but then it's driven by charts not by my tea leaves work.

Case in point

At 13 times earnings it definitely looks frothy but is that soooo terrible given some of the insane P/Es around at the moment?

[MrXxx]

Hi Folks,

Doing some reading on bonds and I have a quick question; know I should put this in the investments section but people hardly seem to visit that.

So, govt bonds do well in a recession as inflation rate lowers and govt reduces interest rates to stimulate economy, thus bond YTM increases...yes?...so, my confusion...we are about to go into a recession BUT a) our inflation rates are low already AND b our interest rates are low already...Does this mean that current YTM`s on gilts are good?.if not (this goes against theory and gilts/bonds being a good negative correlation to equities?!) how will govt increase demand as interest rates cant go much lower?! Finally, if they do more QE to rejuvenate economy will this not just increase inflation, reducing YTM and so actually reducing demand?...Am I missing something as my understanding from what I have read doesn't equate with what is actually happening/being done in the economy.

Thanks

[DurhamBorn]

22 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

That's interesting. Does that mean we should we be looking at Gold assets in Sterling rather than USD? (At least in the short term) Would you get more profit if they are correct about both, rather than a Gold in USD price rise, being offset by a Sterling rise? Or would it be factored into the FTSE Sterling price of miners. Do you have an opinion on such as Randgold or Fresnillo?

I think we might suffer a cut in profits by a short term rally in sterling,but i fully expect the miners to x times the amount the other way.I like Rangold and Fresnillo,but i dont think they are as cheap as many other miners.I wouldnt put anyone of them,but when i buy the miners i buy the ones most leveraged to the gold price.Im quite prepared to suffer a lot of pain for the huge potential upside.However for people with a passive portfolio i wouldnt see anything wrong in holding FTSE gold/silver miners.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza those charts always wake me up.Kinross is really tempting me as is Goldfields,im pretty much at where i want to be in the space though and im picking up companies in a stair case i want in others sectors so i have to keep allocation safe.

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Hi Folks,

Doing some reading on bonds and I have a quick question; know I should put this in the investments section but people hardly seem to visit that.

So, govt bonds do well in a recession as inflation rate lowers and govt reduces interest rates to stimulate economy, thus bond YTM increases...yes?...so, my confusion...we are about to go into a recession BUT a) our inflation rates are low already AND b our interest rates are low already...Does this mean that current YTM`s on gilts are good?.if not (this goes against theory and gilts/bonds being a good negative correlation to equities?!) how will govt increase demand as interest rates cant go much lower?! Finally, if they do more QE to rejuvenate economy will this not just increase inflation, reducing YTM and so actually reducing demand?...Am I missing something as my understanding from what I have read doesn't equate with what is actually happening/being done in the economy.

Thanks

Most of the reason people buy treasuries/gilts during a recession to park money where they are certain to get it back.The governments have no problems getting paper away during a recession.I think all forms of debt will suffer very badly once we get the debt deflation out of the way and i wouldnt own any then,but at the moment its likely they have one last time in the sun to go.

[dgul]

36 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Hi Folks,

Doing some reading on bonds and I have a quick question; know I should put this in the investments section but people hardly seem to visit that.

So, govt bonds do well in a recession as inflation rate lowers and govt reduces interest rates to stimulate economy, thus bond YTM increases...yes?...so, my confusion...we are about to go into a recession BUT a) our inflation rates are low already AND b our interest rates are low already...Does this mean that current YTM`s on gilts are good?.if not (this goes against theory and gilts/bonds being a good negative correlation to equities?!) how will govt increase demand as interest rates cant go much lower?! Finally, if they do more QE to rejuvenate economy will this not just increase inflation, reducing YTM and so actually reducing demand?...Am I missing something as my understanding from what I have read doesn't equate with what is actually happening/being done in the economy.

Thanks

1) in a recession yield goes out of the window as we transfer from 'return on investment' to a 'return of investment' world*.

2) In normal times moving to gov bonds is a safe thing to do, but it has already been the safe thing to do, so many people are in bonds that wouldn't otherwise have been.  Furthermore, the move into bonds has encouraged people like hedge-funds that have bought into the price increase on a speculative punt -- mostly as a leveraged bet.  So, if we have a deflation where investors are forced to sell assets this will likely hit bonds.

3) Government can increase demand by mandating increased investment in government bonds, eg, by changing the rules regarding bond:equity split in pensions.

[* this doesn't impact on 'normal people' -- the bank account guarantee is enough.  But for wealth management, pensions, company funds etc there is no guarantee with a bank account -- hence the need to put money somewhere where there is pretty much a guarantee of getting your money back = high quality government bonds.]

 

 

[sancho panza]

On 08/09/2018 at 00:05, Option5 said:

Inchcape, like most big car dealer chains don't sell cars, they sell finance. When the cheap money for finance dries up they'll plummet.

That's my view.I think I'll have a circle over Pendragon as well.

21 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I had a perusal of the share prices in the Times today. What surprised me are the number of companies with their share prices at 12 month lows or marginally above. If you look at the banks, Barclays, HSBC and Lloyds all closed yesterday at a 12 month low. RBS is marginally above their 12 month low. Similar thing in other sectors. 

There are indeed.As I've said,a number look-chart wise-to clearly have their cycle peak behind them,espceially given the deteriorating fundamentals.A friend has a business shopfitting and was saying yesterday that things are quiet.

I suspect a lot of insiders are selling but I have no evidence beyond some of the building co. directors eg Pidgeley.I'm talking more the middle rankers who don't have to declare sales.

4 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

At 13 times earnings it definitely looks frothy but is that soooo terrible given some of the insane P/Es around at the moment?

Schroders is maybe a bad example Azzurri. However, I think it's peaked for this cycle.

Check this one

Carnival PLC

Revenue up 10% over 4 years.

Net earnings up 114%

Share price up 58.7%

The pips have been squeezed

 

 

Period Ending:	Nov 30, 2017	Nov 30, 2016	Nov 30, 2015	Nov 30, 2014
Total Revenue	17510	16389	15714	15884
Gross Profit	9116	8999	8126	7405
Operating Income	2809	3071	2574	1772
Net Income	2606	2779	1757	1216

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza those charts always wake me up.Kinross is really tempting me as is Goldfields,im pretty much at where i want to be in the space though and im picking up companies in a stair case i want in others sectors so i have to keep allocation safe.

I haven't added Kinross yet as the downtrend is still intact and I have my blocking bets on from last year,so I'm in no rush. But as someone said on the other page you begin to doubt the opportunity you're looking at.I've been here before....many many times and sometimes you don't jump through fear of failure.

As I write,I think my second tranche of goldies looms large.

Ref Kinross-possibly one of the least risky big Goldies geo politically.

 

Google have a chart going back to 1978 for Gold Fields

1981 for Kinross

[azzuri82]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

That's my view.I think I'll have a circle over Pendragon as well.

There are indeed.As I've said,a number look-chart wise-to clearly have their cycle peak behind them,espceially given the deteriorating fundamentals.A friend has a business shopfitting and was saying yesterday that things are quiet.

I suspect a lot of insiders are selling but I have no evidence beyond some of the building co. directors eg Pidgeley.I'm talking more the middle rankers who don't have to declare sales.

Schroders is maybe a bad example Azzurri. However, I think it's peaked for this cycle.

Check this one

Carnival PLC

Revenue up 10% over 4 years.

Net earnings up 114%

Share price up 58.7%

The pips have been squeezed

 

 

Period Ending:	Nov 30, 2017	Nov 30, 2016	Nov 30, 2015	Nov 30, 2014
Total Revenue	17510	16389	15714	15884
Gross Profit	9116	8999	8126	7405
Operating Income	2809	3071	2574	1772
Net Income	2606	2779	1757	1216

I haven't added Kinross yet as the downtrend is still intact and I have my blocking bets on from last year,so I'm in no rush. But as someone said on the other page you begin to doubt the opportunity you're looking at.I've been here before....many many times and sometimes you don't jump through fear of failure.

As I write,I think my second tranche of goldies looms large.

Ref Kinross-possibly one of the least risky big Goldies geo politically.

 

Google have a chart going back to 1978 for Gold Fields

1981 for Kinross

Might it be useful to have a separate PMs thread in this sub-forum?

It's something I'm very interested in and I feel a lot of the detail gets lost in the wonderful variety of this thread. Just an idea - it could perhaps derail the fantastic 'anything and everything' nature of it.

An anecdotal: although I sold my business I started 8 years ago 5-6 weeks ago, I'm still working in it during the handover for the next 3-4 months, and still own a minority stake. All the numbers in the business were telling my head I should be holding onto this thing and it was nuts to be selling when everything was going well, but since the sale, despite us being a market leader in our admittedly fairly niche industry in tourism, things in September have been a lot quieter than expected.

We're spending more in advertising, our reputation is still top of the tree online, we've improved our website/s and streamlined our booking processes, improved our promotional literature, online videos, spent a lot on search engine optimisation etc. etc. But our numbers have been fairly flat. Every other month this year, from January onwards, we've been up between 25-50% month on month on last year. This month, flat. Already I can see we're going to do the same as last year in sales. Even with all our extra costs and investment. Next 2-3 months will likely be the same. Something has definitely turned in our industry - the last 2-3 years it's been one way traffic, and no one thought it would ever be anything but. I'm looking around at a lot of young faces in our office and I'm not sure what to tell them. There's been a LOT of businesses over that time have doubled/tripled in size, and invested in vehicles that'll they'll be stuck paying for for the next 4-5 years. I'm smelling a price war over the next 6-12 months. And god help us if Sterling rebounds 10-15% against the major currencies - the sudden devaluation after the EU referendum was the best thing to ever happen to our industry. We're effectively exporters, and the sudden devaluation had people from all over the world saying, "Let's visit the UK whilst it's cheap!" - the novelty of the "cheap" UK is now wearing off, and there's going to be a LOT of excess supply available in tourism in general, whether it be accommodation, attractions, ancillary services.

[Barnsey]

Sounds like you've timed it right @azzuri82

[leonardratso]

hmm, our parent has decided to flog us - its jewel in the crown, double digit growth (revenues+big profits) makes them look a bit crazy to be getting shot right now, but a little bird told me that the parent is up shit creek and needs to raise capital fast to plug its now negative profits. Also im always a bit dubious about crazy bull runs - look at crypto for example, seems a bit dead in the water now, unless you can get in then out quickly you soon become a bag holder to ptobably zero. the company has expanded quite considerably, but also i realize it can downsize just as rapidly if not more so, ive been here a while and a nice payoff would actually go down quite well, but it wont be as good as it used to be, so ill grit my teeth and watch with my popcorn as it either flails itself to death, flatlines and tried to keep its head above water, or follows the titanic to the bottom.

[azzuri82]

15 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Sounds like you've timed it right @azzuri82

Perhaps. Still need to wait and see it play out, maybe I'm wrong about the industry in general.

If the timing is right, it's certainly luck over judgement. 

My plan was/is that if everything continued strongly for the next 12 months, I'll try and offload my minority shareholding as it's worth another £250-300k, get that out whilst the going is still good. If I'm right about the industry in general though, the new owners probably won't want to buy the remainder of the shareholding. C'est la vie!

I've been 'out' for a month and I'm starting to look at other opportunities already - I told myself I'd give myself at least 6 months to unwind but I've already viewed 2 other businesses for sale - admittedly a bit smaller and in different industries. It's probably not wise with what's coming - does anyone have any ideas of particular industries that it might be good to buy into or avoid? I've been involved in a lot of consumer/service type businesses over the years - but I can turn my hand to most things.

[Clueless Imbecile]

On 05/09/2018 at 14:32, DurhamBorn said:

Most here are experienced,but for anyone considering the PM miner space right now,its crucial to get a good spread.I would say 6 minimum,and between 6 and 10 better .I like to buy half from stocks that have been hit very hard from their highs,and also stocks showing good technical strength already.I also try to keep spread across different countries as well.The last time i entered the sector i had some losses from Eldorado of around 60%,but Majestic returned 500%,Sibanye 200% ,Harmony 200% etc.Even in a bull some companies have mine failures,country problems etc that drag them down.My rubber band list at the moment has Harmony number 2 and New Gold no 1 and if i was buying now id still buy it,but at a smaller size than others.

Hi DurhamBorn.

Thanks for your comments on this fascinating thread.

My investment strategy still relies mostly on index-tracker funds spread across global markets.
However, having been inspired by this thread, I have invested a modest amount in some individual stocks, in the hope of hedging against the kind of scenario that you describe on this thread.

So far, I've invested in the following:

BT GROUP
VODAFONE GROUP
CENTRICA
YAMANA GOLD INC COM NPV
SIBANYE GOLD LTD SPON ADR EACH REP 4 ORD SHS
HARMONY GOLD MNG SPON ADR REP 1 ORD ZAR0.50
NEW GOLD INC COM NPV
ENDEAVOUR SILVER C COM NPV

I think I've got room to invest in a few more stocks. I was trying to think of what other sectors/companies might benefit from the scenario you describe. Maybe a travel company? I thought you mentioned Stagecoach somewhere earlier in the thread, but its share price seemed to have risen a lot since then. Also, I feel quite tempted by Lloyds, due to its current relatively low share price, although I doubt it really fits in with the infrastructure/depreciation scenario. Then again, generally speaking, banks seem to usually do OK, perhaps due to having such strong lobbying power/influence over governments/policy. What is your current view of the banks and how they might fare over the next 10 years?

Considering the above, what other stocks do you think I should consider?

Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

 

[MrXxx]

Thanks DB and Dgul for your replies above...it seems what is the basis of theoretical economics and what happens in the real world can be two different things, especially when the Govt can legislate for pension funds to buy a certain % of their gilts in a recession!

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Might it be useful to have a separate PMs thread in this sub-forum?

It's something I'm very interested in and I feel a lot of the detail gets lost in the wonderful variety of this thread. Just an idea - it could perhaps derail the fantastic 'anything and everything' nature of it.

An anecdotal: although I sold my business I started 8 years ago 5-6 weeks ago, I'm still working in it during the handover for the next 3-4 months, and still own a minority stake. All the numbers in the business were telling my head I should be holding onto this thing and it was nuts to be selling when everything was going well, but since the sale, despite us being a market leader in our admittedly fairly niche industry in tourism, things in September have been a lot quieter than expected.

We're spending more in advertising, our reputation is still top of the tree online, we've improved our website/s and streamlined our booking processes, improved our promotional literature, online videos, spent a lot on search engine optimisation etc. etc. But our numbers have been fairly flat. Every other month this year, from January onwards, we've been up between 25-50% month on month on last year. This month, flat. Already I can see we're going to do the same as last year in sales. Even with all our extra costs and investment. Next 2-3 months will likely be the same. Something has definitely turned in our industry - the last 2-3 years it's been one way traffic, and no one thought it would ever be anything but. I'm looking around at a lot of young faces in our office and I'm not sure what to tell them. There's been a LOT of businesses over that time have doubled/tripled in size, and invested in vehicles that'll they'll be stuck paying for for the next 4-5 years. I'm smelling a price war over the next 6-12 months. And god help us if Sterling rebounds 10-15% against the major currencies - the sudden devaluation after the EU referendum was the best thing to ever happen to our industry. We're effectively exporters, and the sudden devaluation had people from all over the world saying, "Let's visit the UK whilst it's cheap!" - the novelty of the "cheap" UK is now wearing off, and there's going to be a LOT of excess supply available in tourism in general, whether it be accommodation, attractions, ancillary services.

I love reports from the coalface.As I said about the downturn in the housing market I track for interest,small and medium size company Directors are probably the most aware of a downturn before it really gets a grip.The shopfitting guy does loads of work on car dealerships and has gone from being really busy to stressed about where the orders are coming from.Obviously it's one report on it's own abut a few more and it's stops being a coincidence.

I look at CCL and they've managed to turn either the revenue rise into net profits or cut costs or both.Either way they're in a sweet spot when you do the maths.And history tells us sweet spots don't continue forever.

 

Congrats on selling .Taking a profit is as hard as taking a loss.But as I say to my family members it ain't a profit till it's in the bank.

 

A separate PM miners/gold thread would be nice as a reference point particularly for sharing research.

2 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Perhaps. Still need to wait and see it play out, maybe I'm wrong about the industry in general.

If the timing is right, it's certainly luck over judgement. 

My plan was/is that if everything continued strongly for the next 12 months, I'll try and offload my minority shareholding as it's worth another £250-300k, get that out whilst the going is still good. If I'm right about the industry in general though, the new owners probably won't want to buy the remainder of the shareholding. C'est la vie!

I've been 'out' for a month and I'm starting to look at other opportunities already - I told myself I'd give myself at least 6 months to unwind but I've already viewed 2 other businesses for sale - admittedly a bit smaller and in different industries. It's probably not wise with what's coming - does anyone have any ideas of particular industries that it might be good to buy into or avoid? I've been involved in a lot of consumer/service type businesses over the years - but I can turn my hand to most things.

One idea I've had is with regards to manufacturing.I'm pretty sure one day that manufacturing of things like shoes and clothing will come back to the UK.It's hard to timeline it due to variables, but the central plank is weak sterling-hence the problems timelining.Longer term,sterling will weaken but when you look at the yen,it should have been shot a decade ago.

There are some short order shoe and clothing manufacturers in Leicester that are getting busier.

 

Where do you search for businesses for sale?

[azzuri82]

22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I love reports from the coalface.As I said about the downturn in the housing market I track for interest,small and medium size company Directors are probably the most aware of a downturn before it really gets a grip.The shopfitting guy does loads of work on car dealerships and has gone from being really busy to stressed about where the orders are coming from.Obviously it's one report on it's own abut a few more and it's stops being a coincidence.

I look at CCL and they've managed to turn either the revenue rise into net profits or cut costs or both.Either way they're in a sweet spot when you do the maths.And history tells us sweet spots don't continue forever.

 

Congrats on selling .Taking a profit is as hard as taking a loss.But as I say to my family members it ain't a profit till it's in the bank.

 

A separate PM miners/gold thread would be nice as a reference point particularly for sharing research.

One idea I've had is with regards to manufacturing.I'm pretty sure one day that manufacturing of things like shoes and clothing will come back to the UK.It's hard to timeline it due to variables, but the central plank is weak sterling-hence the problems timelining.Longer term,sterling will weaken but when you look at the yen,it should have been shot a decade ago.

There are some short order shoe and clothing manufacturers in Leicester that are getting busier.

 

Where do you search for businesses for sale?

Funny you should say that, I'm very particular when it comes to buying shoes and probably buy around 1/100 pairs I try on. I'd love to own / run a shoe manufacturing business, but any of the companies I like and I've looked at seem to be money pits when you check out their details on Companies House, perhaps it's an ego-driven industry run by people that have already made their money in banking, finance etc., like wine bars and restaurants? Hobbies rather than businesses that don't really have to derive a profit to survive -  it's very difficult to compete with such companies if you need to make money to survive.

I've thought about how something that's 'British Made' in the current political climate might do well, but presumably all the skills in manufacturing industries have been lost, I'm not sure where I'd even start.

If Sterling continues its current trend, and oil prices continue to rise, and we have trade wars with the EU and elsewhere, then stuff being made here will be more attractive. I agree with DB that the current trend of 'more stuff' that's gone on for 30-40 years+ is over. People don't have an appetite for more stuff any more, the young want steady jobs and 'authentic experiences', make of that what you will.

There's lots of agents' sites out there for business sales, but they are much of a muchness and more or less share their content on all the sites, businessesforsale.com , rightbiz.co.uk , are pretty good, and also gumtree.com , bizarrely, for those that wish to avoid agents/site fees , also classifieds in local newspapers can be a good source. The other way to do it would be to flyer local businesses, but you'd need to really have an idea of a specific business you're after, and I don't at the moment.

I know there's plenty of times I'd have chucked the towel in over the last 8 years if someone had knocked on my door and offered a fair valuation - I imagine many other business owners reaching retirement age would feel the same.

[sancho panza]

19 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Funny you should say that, I'm very particular when it comes to buying shoes and probably buy around 1/100 pairs I try on. I'd love to own / run a shoe manufacturing business, but any of the companies I like and I've looked at seem to be money pits when you check out their details on Companies House, perhaps it's an ego-driven industry run by people that have already made their money in banking, finance etc., like wine bars and restaurants? Hobbies rather than businesses that have to derive a profit to survive -  it's very difficult to compete with such companies if you need to make money to survive.

I've thought about how something that's 'British Made' in the current political climate might do well, but presumably all the skills in manufacturing industries have been lost, I'm not sure where I'd even start.

If Sterling continues its current trend, and oil prices continue to rise, and we have trade wars with the EU and elsewhere, then stuff being made here will be more attractive. I agree with DB that the current trend of 'more stuff' that's gone on for 30-40 years+ is over. People don't have an appetite for more stuff any more, the young want steady jobs and 'authentic experiences', make of that what you will.

There's lots of agents' sites out there for business sales, but they are much of a muchness and more or less share their content on all the sites, businessesforsale.com , rightbiz.co.uk , are pretty good, and also gumtree.com , bizarrely, for those that wish to avoid agents/site fees , also classifieds in local newspapers can be a good source. The other way to do it would be to flyer local businesses, but you'd need to really have an idea of a specific business you're after, and I don't at the moment.

I know there's plenty of times I'd have chucked the towel in over the last 8 years if someone had knocked on my door and offered a fair valuation - I imagine many other business owners reaching retirement age would feel the same.

The shoe industry (and other assorted manufacturing projects) would need a weak sterling to drive the sort of demand that would give a reasonable chance to profit imho-a situation where the bread and butter sales cover your fixed costs and the bulk of your variables,leaving some scope for upward growth from exporting or finding high margin opportunities.

We're still well away from the shoe business being viable on a decent scale.There are some niche businesses eg high end -Cheaney's or military eg Lowa or Alt berg but these businesses will struggle to scale up in their markets.

 

I briefly had a look at some business sale site and it was all the usual dreamers trying to flog dead sandwich shops.Manufacturing has been decimated in this country which probably means it rebirth is due.

[azzuri82]

15 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

The shoe industry (and other assorted manufacturing projects) would need a weak sterling to drive the sort of demand that would give a reasonable chance to profit imho-a situation where the bread and butter sales cover your fixed costs and the bulk of your variables,leaving some scope for upward growth from exporting or finding high margin opportunities.

We're still well away from the shoe business being viable on a decent scale.There are some niche businesses eg high end -Cheaney's or military eg Lowa or Alt berg but these businesses will struggle to scale up in their markets.

 

I briefly had a look at some business sale site and it was all the usual dreamers trying to flog dead sandwich shops.Manufacturing has been decimated in this country which probably means it rebirth is due.

Yep, we'll run, profitable small businesses rarely come on the market unless it's a genuine retirement sale with no dependents to take over. 90%+ on these sites are complete crap.

None of the businesses I've enquired about even have a set of accounts for 2017-18 yet (I've made 5 enquiries in total, 2 visits). Can't believe it. How do they expect to sell a business when they don't have a set of up-to-date accounts. One of the guys couldn't explain £90k of 'Administrative Expenses' in his 14-15 and 15-16 accounts. On £450k turnover. With no admin staff. 

The one thing I've learned from this process is that the vast majority of small business owners don't have a clue. Hardly anyone can read a set of accounts. Businesses with £1m+ turnover who shove a bunch of invoices / receipts into bin bags, hand it all over to their accountant and entrust them with everything. Absolute madness!

[Lightscribe]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Manufacturing has been decimated in this country which probably means it rebirth is due.

Exactly this. My parents thought I was mad, when I said the exact same thing the other week (post war generation). Their minds instantly reverted to dock workers and the coal industry. I explained that specific manufacturing will eventually return to the UK, as when the costs are added up, it will work out the most cost effective option.

[MrXxx]

12 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

Exactly this. My parents thought I was mad, when I said the exact same thing the other week (post war generation). Their minds instantly reverted to dock workers and the coal industry. I explained that specific manufacturing will eventually return to the UK, as when the costs are added up, it will work out the most cost effective option.

The problem will be where will we find the skilled work force?....`all well and good` making our Polys the `University of Suchensuch` but this meant they moved from being places of vocational training to academic study...funny how the Germans still have this segregation...but with the `B word` their skilled output won't be allowed such free movement into the UK.

[Bricks & Mortar]

5 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

The problem will be where will we find the skilled work force?

 

[eek]

18 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

The problem will be where will we find the skilled work force?....

You won't need many. Manufacturing (as with everything else) isn't labour intensive anymore its machine / capital intensive. Once built its often 1 person loading raw materials, 1 person (possibly the same person) loading the finished products...