Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[azzuri82]

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its funny nul; but i started my little business in 2010.Importing from China and selling online.It was like shooting ducks it was that easy.It was pretty much a case of import container for £18k sell it for £36k in 6 months,repeat.Get 3 product lines on the go (pretty much anything) and a one man band could do £80k a year as a sole trader profit with only around £50k capital tied up.I had a friend who did the same but really pushed things and was making £18k a month profit as a sole trader.Forward to today and the margins are now so small and the competition so great you probably make £5k on a container that now costs £22k.Add on the extra work to get it up to decent wage area and extra costs involved (storage/risk etc) and its hardly worth it.Anyone starting now would get nowhere.I keep going because i only want to make £12k a year and work 1 day a week and so two containers a year (or 4 x 20 foot containers) makes me that and i only need to hire two containers self storage on month contracts for storage.I can walk away without any costs at any time after selling my stock.

I have been tempted to get into something else though.I semi retired at 39,but do like to keep something pulling a few quid in outside of my investments,but dont really want to pump much capital into anything.

Yep, a lot of people that start businesses do so not necessarily for the money itself, but purely for their own interest. People like this (and I include myself in this) like making money in this way, not necessarily for the money itself, but for what the money means (that you've spotted an opportunity, delivered on it and the market/consumers like it).

The business I've just sold was most enjoyable when people were telling me that I was "nuts" for doing what I was doing, but I was sure about the opportunities and risks we were taking. When our backs were against the wall and cashflow was tight, and you had to make crucial decisions on what you were spending money on, it was exciting and rewarding. By the time it reached the stage it's now at, when your grossing £150k/month sales, everything is predictable, profits are "guaranteed" and you have a team of staff doing all the actual legwork, it's pretty boring. When you've reached the summit of your own personal 'Everest', it's time to find a new challenge.

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I have been tempted to get into something else though.I semi retired at 39,but do like to keep something pulling a few quid in outside of my investments,but dont really want to pump much capital into anything.

Here you go Betfair Exchange

You can back or lay on practically anything. It should be like shooting ducks in barrel for you.

[invalid]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Is is a race to the bottom,but luckily for me my costs are at the bottom,i do everything myself,pay nobody,have tiny storage costs etc and only want to make £12k a year now tax allowance level.Mostly the decline is sterling falling so much,Chinese sellers breaking the law through Amazon by not paying VAT and simply the fact every product line has multiple sellers.The only way now to make a profit really is to find a slight edge.If your selling tables and nobody sells pink ones,get pink ones.If your the only seller you can price £10 higher and people will pay because they want a pink one.Its actually easy to make a small amount (enough for me),but getting very hard for anyone employing people and being a decent size.

Buy white tables and paint them to order? Value added.

It's a slightly jokey example, but I think that's where its at, buy a basic product or material from China and then add some final processing in the uk. Customisation, customer service, bespoke etc.

[azzuri82]

59 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was going to set up importing wood for log burners from Lithuania/Baltics.Very good margins and once you get the mid range customers on board very easy to just rotate containers and dont need too much storage.To be honest though i dont really want to be a one man band anymore.Having to be everything from CEO to import manager,to sourcing manager to lad who unloads the container gets to be too much with nobody to fall back on.

This definitely gets tiring as the adrenaline from the initial startup phase subsides. When you're very young you can do this for 4/5 years but eventually it grinds you down. I'm now 35 and think I probably have the energy to do this for 1-2 years max after a few months off from the last 8 years. You need to make sure that whatever you get into, it can definitely scale up to the point where you can add a layer of people to do the basic admin tasks (...or whatever else you particularly hate doing - for me it was answering customer calls and emails - so repetitive and boring).

[invalid]

1 minute ago, azzuri82 said:

Yep, a lot of people that start businesses do so not necessarily for the money itself, but purely for their own interest. People like this (and I include myself in this) like making money in this way, not necessarily for the money itself, but for what the money means (that you've spotted an opportunity, delivered on it and the market/consumers like it).

The business I've just sold was most enjoyable when people were telling me that I was "nuts" for doing what I was doing, but I was sure about the opportunities and risks we were taking. When our backs were against the wall and cashflow was tight, and you had to make crucial decisions on what you were spending money on, it was exciting and rewarding. By the time it reached the stage it's now at, when your grossing £150k/month sales, everything is predictable, profits are "guaranteed" and you have a team of staff doing all the actual legwork, it's pretty boring. When you've reached the summit of your own personal 'Everest', it's time to find a new challenge.

I've been through that stage, it does make you worry a bit when you have to ask what if they are right? I'm sure plenty of times the naysayers are right as many businesses do fail. The feeling when you get that confirmation that it wasn't nuts makes it worthwhile.

I find it interesting as to why people can sometimes be so negative towards new ideas. Is it jealousy, fear of change or maybe just not being able to spot the opportunity.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, null; said:

Buy white tables and paint them to order? Value added.

It's a slightly jokey example, but I think that's where its at, buy a basic product or material from China and then add some final processing in the uk. Customisation, customer service, bespoke etc.

I have been thinking about this. Im a sole trader in the construction industry, a few spanners and a licence to get jobs signed off= good part time life.

With all this talk of manufacturing  coming back i've started thinking about UK finished high end brass models, might be a nice retirement job.

Just be careful you don't create a monster that saps all your time.

[azzuri82]

42 minutes ago, null; said:

In a previous job I used to work with some great guys, smart, hard working. I used to think it was a missed opportunity that with so much talent we didn't all leave and start a business. While they had the skills and intelligence they didn't have the confidence to go it alone (much as I was when younger) and were all tied down with family and big mortgages.

Another lesson I've learned is that smart and hard-working isn't enough - you get rewards in life for taking risks - whether that's taking time from working to learn a new skill, moving cities/countries and/or starting a business. Most people aren't prepared to take any risks, and the more you have in life and the older you get, the more defensive you get. That's why it's the young that work in Silicon Valley and take big risks with most startups failing within a year or two - they have plenty time to recover from any mistakes and have very little to lose, no mortgage, kids etc.

The reason that many of my friends and colleagues couldn't start a business is that they couldn't deal with a reduced/irregular monthly income, and wouldn't be willing to invest the capital to start something. The irony is that these same people are willing to take on £300k+ mortgages on a home at potentially a market peak - this is seen as "low risk". I'll bet the same "smart and hardworking" co-workers you had are loaded up with debt like this that actually leaves them very exposed to systemic risks in the wider economy that they're not in control of?

I like taking lots of small risks with big upsides. I don't mind losing a £10-20k here and there if it means 20% of the time there are big upsides. Lots of people can't handle any losses whatsoever - even though a lot of the 'losses' are tax deductible - you make 'losses' inside a tax-efficient wrapper - you're actually taking risks on capital that isn't yours yet - why would I want to extract money from my company at 40-50% tax when I could try something else? If it works, great, you make more money, and if it doesn't work, you deduct it from your profits from the year, cut your losses, sell the assets/machinery and move on. Too many people have their egos wrapped up in their businesses. It doesn't matter - if something doesn't sell, it's not personal, it's just business - don't flog a dead horse because something "...should work - it's a great product / service". It really doesn't matter if it makes sense to you - all that matters is it makes a profit. 

In any business, you have an idea, you test it > tweak > test again > tweak again > test again > tweak again until you reach the perfect formula for what works in that particular industry. The key, however, is to actually START something and get going. You could spend years trying to perfect a product/service, only to bring it to market and find out it doesn't fit the space or consumers don't like it. If you've got specific industry experience, then you should be able to bypass this stage somewhat, but you have to make sure you're not spending BIG money committing to something that you then can't reverse the decision easily or tweak later. If you're committed without testing the waters first, and it doesn't work, then you're screwed. That's the sort of risk I wouldn't be willing to take.

[azzuri82]

36 minutes ago, null; said:

I've been through that stage, it does make you worry a bit when you have to ask what if they are right? I'm sure plenty of times the naysayers are right as many businesses do fail. The feeling when you get that confirmation that it wasn't nuts makes it worthwhile.

I find it interesting as to why people can sometimes be so negative towards new ideas. Is it jealousy, fear of change or maybe just not being able to spot the opportunity.

Just need to get over your fear of failure - chances are you will fail in some way shape or form. But it's not the end of the world - you'll likely be able to pivot with what you're doing and make something of it. No one else gives a shit about you failing anyway - it won't even register on their radar - everyone has their own issues / problems to worry about. Most of the things you try in business (I'd say 60-70%, even if you know your industry) don't work - it's fine though, because you just take the little loss against the profits of something that does work and you move on.

The reason I had to move on is that I couldn't see any scope for me to grow my business greatly. A couple of years ago I could see there were opportunities to double/treble turnover in a couple of years. But now the market is saturated with competition and I couldn't see where there was significant growth potential - so you'd be doing a lot more work for a little more reward - that risk profile doesn't suit me.

[Lightscribe]

It’s horses for courses. I work in the government law enforcement sector and have done for many years as both a contractor and permanent staff in technical roles. I find my job rewarding due to the nature of what I do, it can be stressful as I’m accountable for my work and can be cross examined in court. I am however a cog in the PAYE system which irks me somewhat, due to how taxes are spent and how the chips have been stacked against the younger generation. So in regards to that I want to either retire early, or reduce my hours and plow anything past the tax threshold into my pension. 

My father however is a completely different kettle of fish. He has always been a ‘manual’ worker and always had a skill in metal working. He was forcefully retired when he lost his job a few years back but only had the state pension and savings to rely on. He was absolutely terrible at being retired, so started making oil drum BBQ to sell to keep him busy. He’s since got a small local job for a few hours a day making event specialist framing (light work) and he couldn’t be happier. He has a brain tumour so won’t be able to continue for much longer, but while he can, he will.

[DoINeedOne]

I was a Carpenter for 14 years loved it quit in 2009 due to the recession and just tired of sitting in traffic and dealing with customers that my boss seemed to have a habit of upsetting when I quit I had a side interest of online advertising, but when I quit everyone thought I was mad said it won't work you'll be back

Now 2018 this year has been a pretty poor year but, because of previous years and money tied up in company accounts rather than pay 40%+ tax I use the dividends and funds to create and test projects they don't always work out but normally if they do they more then cover any losses of the previous ones

But I would love to get back into niche construction business I have friends who are amazing at there jobs but like above the downside is they could not be a partner in the business as they can't/ won't like the irregular income until get regular business and like above these are the ones tied down with mortgages, debt and cars etc...

I could start it by myself and hopefully employee them, but I also don't see a bright future for construction but we shall see

[sancho panza]

 

1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

"Sure you're", not "umpire your", damn autocorrect on my phone. 

In other news, we were notified by our energy provider that prices are being raised across the board by 18% in 2 months' time. All the other providers are doing same, or similar. For energy-hungry businesses, this could be the writing on the wall come October/November time. What sort of industries might be hit hardest?

I think energy price rises will only hammer companies where they constitute a disproportionate amount of overall variables eg trucking/oil.I'm struggling to think of an industry that's wide open as things like the textile industry have long since gone from Leicester.

 

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its funny nul; but i started my little business in 2010.Importing from China and selling online.It was like shooting ducks it was that easy.It was pretty much a case of import container for £18k sell it for £36k in 6 months,repeat.Get 3 product lines on the go (pretty much anything) and a one man band could do £80k a year as a sole trader profit with only around £50k capital tied up.I had a friend who did the same but really pushed things and was making £18k a month profit as a sole trader.Forward to today and the margins are now so small and the competition so great you probably make £5k on a container that now costs £22k.Add on the extra work to get it up to decent wage area and extra costs involved (storage/risk etc) and its hardly worth it.Anyone starting now would get nowhere.I keep going because i only want to make £12k a year and work 1 day a week and so two containers a year (or 4 x 20 foot containers) makes me that and i only need to hire two containers self storage on month contracts for storage.I can walk away without any costs at any time after selling my stock.

I have been tempted to get into something else though.I semi retired at 39,but do like to keep something pulling a few quid in outside of my investments,but dont really want to pump much capital into anything.

It's amazing when you do the maths how much currency arbitrage has played a huge part in China's manufacturing surge.Internally,they're getting plenty of food price inflation.A t some point the workers will want cheap food and cheap housing and then China will unravel and with it the Communist control of the State.

1 hour ago, null; said:

Guessed that was what you meant.

I've been involved in one business that started from scratch (not maufacturing). Even that took much longer than expected to build up, when you have something new buyers can be cautious at first until you build up experience and reputation.

I have no experience of manufacturing but its an area I wouldn't mind having a go at. For the UK at the moment I think the growth areas could be things like shoes as mentioned previously. Mass production that requires massive scale (1 penny plastic widgets) I dont think will work well at the moment, but anything where a quality (value add) mid volume product can be made I think has a future.

Shoes offer you the chance to enter a bespoke high end area eg Military/walking and then spread out into more general areas as the currency moves your way.

With the Brexit debate, noone has really made the point that sterling will devalue more than the WTO 15% tariff.Obviously,not great for heavily indebted homeowners,but we are where we are.

1 hour ago, null; said:

Feels like the reselling of stuff from China is a race to the bottom.

What do you think has caused the decline in the margins? Is it lots of small time sellers or the big boys like amazon? Or a bit of both?

I've never liked follow the herd, so with manufacturing on the decline in the UK that's the way to go. Unfortunately, I don't have any great ideas so for me personally its nothing more than talk.

 

 

The internet is a force for price deflation while transport costs remain so low.More and more people are using online comparison and that jsut kills margins on mundane every day items.

 

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Here you go Betfair Exchange

You can back or lay on practically anything. It should be like shooting ducks in barrel for you.

I got hit with teh Betfair Premium charge where they levy an extra 20% on top of your 5% commission,hence I packed it in.Gutted.I hate bookies.Look at IG,you can put on what you like as long as there's liquidity.

Bookies on the other hand,are more than happy to take your money if you;'re gambling your kids dinner money but if you do ok,they hammer you and/or won't take your bets.They should be forced to publish the liquidity figures for their markets as Betfair does all the time.Another financial scam that needs closing down.

22 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Another lesson I've learned is that smart and hard-working isn't enough - you get rewards in life for taking risks - whether that's taking time from working to learn a new skill, moving cities/countries and/or starting a business. Most people aren't prepared to take any risks, and the more you have in life and the older you get, the more defensive you get. That's why it's the young that work in Silicon Valley and take big risks with most startups failing within a year or two - they have plenty time to recover from any mistakes and have very little to lose, no mortgage, kids etc.

The reason that many of my friends and colleagues couldn't start a business is that they couldn't deal with a reduced/irregular monthly income, and wouldn't be willing to invest the capital to start something. The irony is that these same people are willing to take on £300k+ mortgages on a home at potentially a market peak - this is seen as "low risk". I'll bet the same "smart and hardworking" co-workers you had are loaded up with debt like this that actually leaves them very exposed to systemic risks in the wider economy that they're not in control of?

I like taking lots of small risks with big upsides. I don't mind losing a £10-20k here and there if it means 20% of the time there are big upsides. Lots of people can't handle any losses whatsoever - even though a lot of the 'losses' are tax deductible - you make 'losses' inside a tax-efficient wrapper - you're actually taking risks on capital that isn't yours yet - why would I want to extract money from my company at 40-50% tax when I could try something else? If it works, great, you make more money, and if it doesn't work, you deduct it from your profits from the year, cut your losses, sell the assets/machinery and move on. Too many people have their egos wrapped up in their businesses. It doesn't matter - if something doesn't sell, it's not personal, it's just business - don't flog a dead horse because something "...should work - it's a great product / service". It really doesn't matter if it makes sense to you - all that matters is it makes a profit. 

In any business, you have an idea, you test it > tweak > test again > tweak again > test again > tweak again until you reach the perfect formula for what works in that particular industry. The key, however, is to actually START something and get going. You could spend years trying to perfect a product/service, only to bring it to market and find out it doesn't fit the space or consumers don't like it. If you've got specific industry experience, then you should be able to bypass this stage somewhat, but you have to make sure you're not spending BIG money committing to something that you then can't reverse the decision easily or tweak later. If you're committed without testing the waters first, and it doesn't work, then you're screwed. That's the sort of risk I wouldn't be willing to take.

I've loved this thread this morning.Particularly the bit in bold.We rent because I think buying is too risky and all our middle class friends jsut can't get it as they bounce around running their £300k mortgage and 2 BTL@s leveraged at 75% with S24 inbound,non payers etc etc.

[sancho panza]

3 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I was a Carpenter for 14 years loved it quit in 2009 due to the recession and just tired of sitting in traffic and dealing with customers that my boss seemed to have a habit of upsetting when I quit I had a side interest of online advertising, but when I quit everyone thought I was mad said it won't work you'll be back

Now 2018 this year has been a pretty poor year but, because of previous years and money tied up in company accounts rather than pay 40%+ tax I use the dividends and funds to create and test projects they don't always work out but normally if they do they more then cover any losses of the previous ones

But I would love to get back into niche construction business I have friends who are amazing at there jobs but like above the downside is they could not be a partner in the business as they can't/ won't like the irregular income until get regular business and like above these are the ones tied down with mortgages, debt and cars etc...

 

It's great if you can try things on the back of previous profits rather than search for capital. I've always found speculation a lot easier on the blood pressure when you don't need to win to eat.

I'm in the process of going part time at work to find more time for speculative endeavours.We have kids to feed,so I'm more cautious these days but Mrs P has gone part time for the kids as well.Being able to live cheap has it's benefits.

[Lavalas]

Really interesting reading folks. Well done to everyone running their own business. Another subject ripe for a thread.

If anyone has any spare lucrative ideas for a one man band who’s a bit bored of PAYE then feel free to shout them out 

[DurhamBorn]

Im lucky in that i am very frugal.The things i enjoy are free or very cheap.Im mortgage free and have zero debts (never have had).I can run my house and car for £370 a month all in.Thats every bill.An income of £1000 a month is a very nice lifestyle for me and £800 is fine.My investments get me more than that on their own,so my investments are my no1 priority over a job or my little business.I doubt il ever work again though i would do something 16 hours a week if my capital took a pounding and the income it produced dropped below say £800 a month.Every year my business keeps going and makes me £12k is a year where my investments compound up more as well.To be honest even if my capital ran out at 68 i wouldnt really be bothered £160 state pension and £50 final salary pension would do me fine.

Of course we also have the small fact the PM sector is about to enter a huge bull market and is offering prices that wont ever be seen again probably in our lifetime.I might have to learn to spend a bit more soon  

 

 

[Bobthebuilder]

36 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I was a Carpenter for 14 years loved it quit in 2009 due to the recession and just tired of sitting in traffic and dealing with customers that my boss seemed to have a habit of upsetting when I quit I had a side interest of online advertising, but when I quit everyone thought I was mad said it won't work you'll be back

Now 2018 this year has been a pretty poor year but, because of previous years and money tied up in company accounts rather than pay 40%+ tax I use the dividends and funds to create and test projects they don't always work out but normally if they do they more then cover any losses of the previous ones

But I would love to get back into niche construction business I have friends who are amazing at there jobs but like above the downside is they could not be a partner in the business as they can't/ won't like the irregular income until get regular business and like above these are the ones tied down with mortgages, debt and cars etc...

I could start it by myself and hopefully employee them, but I also don't see a bright future for construction but we shall see

Niche repairs and maintenance is never going to go away.

 

In my experience 90% of trades for home maintenance are rubbish, the other 10% are brilliant at what they do and tend to stick together.

Edit to add. I went paye in 2006 to protect my income, went self employed again in 2008 when many guys fell out of the business. 2008 to date has been very lucrative

[dgul]

47 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Really interesting reading folks. Well done to everyone running their own business. Another subject ripe for a thread.

If anyone has any spare lucrative ideas for a one man band who’s a bit bored of PAYE then feel free to shout them out 

Find out what you're good and enjoy --  the small-business then identifies itself.

[Thorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

I think energy price rises will only hammer companies where they constitute a disproportionate amount of overall variables eg trucking/oil.I'm struggling to think of an industry that's wide open as things like the textile industry have long since gone from Leicester.

 

It's amazing when you do the maths how much currency arbitrage has played a huge part in China's manufacturing surge.Internally,they're getting plenty of food price inflation.A t some point the workers will want cheap food and cheap housing and then China will unravel and with it the Communist control of the State.

Shoes offer you the chance to enter a bespoke high end area eg Military/walking and then spread out into more general areas as the currency moves your way.

With the Brexit debate, noone has really made the point that sterling will devalue more than the WTO 15% tariff.Obviously,not great for heavily indebted homeowners,but we are where we are.

The internet is a force for price deflation while transport costs remain so low.More and more people are using online comparison and that jsut kills margins on mundane every day items.

 

I got hit with teh Betfair Premium charge where they levy an extra 20% on top of your 5% commission,hence I packed it in.Gutted.I hate bookies.Look at IG,you can put on what you like as long as there's liquidity.

Bookies on the other hand,are more than happy to take your money if you;'re gambling your kids dinner money but if you do ok,they hammer you and/or won't take your bets.They should be forced to publish the liquidity figures for their markets as Betfair does all the time.Another financial scam that needs closing down.

I've loved this thread this morning.Particularly the bit in bold.We rent because I think buying is too risky and all our middle class friends jsut can't get it as they bounce around running their £300k mortgage and 2 BTL@s leveraged at 75% with S24 inbound,non payers etc etc.

Agree with most of this-  great morning on thread- But I view renting as total utter crap because we’ve been evicted twice in last couple of years by Bastard? Landlords who wanted their houses back to live in- NIreland 4 weeks notice each time- it’s terrible for the family.

..and the mind.

[invalid]

So many great posts today, fantastic that everyone is so willing to share their knowledge and experience. I've really enjoyed reading them, thank you to everyone, thought I was going to run out of reps! This forum is by far the best I have ever been a part of,  pleased to be here and I hope that it continues.

 

When I left PAYE to go self employed, several of the guys said things like "but won't you miss the security of a regular wage every month" and "but as a one man band you can only do a certain level of work and you will be maxed out".

I didn't really enter into a discussion on it and gave vague replies, like "I'll take my chances and see if it works out".

The reallity was that I much prefered being in control of my destiny. I had control of if that money came in that month, it was down to me. If things were going badly, I would have advance warning of it. I found it liberating. So the PAYE regular wage, what, like when people they were told they were being made redundant, completely out of the blue and without warning? That's not a dependable regular wage. I recall seeing staff fighting back the tears when they were told, we had years of cost cutting (reducing staff as usual). And then a few years later that company merged with another and around 90% of the staff that were left were made redundant.

And as for the one man band, well yes, if you are a window cleaner there are only so many windows you can clean in a day so there is a ceiling to your earnings. I'm not a window cleaner, like DB and others, I have a mix of income streams.

[Funn3r]

2 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Another lesson I've learned is that smart and hard-working isn't enough - you get rewards in life for taking risks - whether that's taking time from working to learn a new skill, moving cities/countries and/or starting a business. Most people aren't prepared to take any risks, and the more you have in life and the older you get, the more defensive you get. That's why it's the young that work in Silicon Valley and take big risks with most startups failing within a year or two - they have plenty time to recover from any mistakes and have very little to lose, no mortgage, kids etc.

The reason that many of my friends and colleagues couldn't start a business is that they couldn't deal with a reduced/irregular monthly income, and wouldn't be willing to invest the capital to start something. The irony is that these same people are willing to take on £300k+ mortgages on a home at potentially a market peak - this is seen as "low risk". I'll bet the same "smart and hardworking" co-workers you had are loaded up with debt like this that actually leaves them very exposed to systemic risks in the wider economy that they're not in control of?

I like taking lots of small risks with big upsides. I don't mind losing a £10-20k here and there if it means 20% of the time there are big upsides. Lots of people can't handle any losses whatsoever - even though a lot of the 'losses' are tax deductible - you make 'losses' inside a tax-efficient wrapper - you're actually taking risks on capital that isn't yours yet - why would I want to extract money from my company at 40-50% tax when I could try something else? If it works, great, you make more money, and if it doesn't work, you deduct it from your profits from the year, cut your losses, sell the assets/machinery and move on. Too many people have their egos wrapped up in their businesses. It doesn't matter - if something doesn't sell, it's not personal, it's just business - don't flog a dead horse because something "...should work - it's a great product / service". It really doesn't matter if it makes sense to you - all that matters is it makes a profit. 

In any business, you have an idea, you test it > tweak > test again > tweak again > test again > tweak again until you reach the perfect formula for what works in that particular industry. The key, however, is to actually START something and get going. You could spend years trying to perfect a product/service, only to bring it to market and find out it doesn't fit the space or consumers don't like it. If you've got specific industry experience, then you should be able to bypass this stage somewhat, but you have to make sure you're not spending BIG money committing to something that you then can't reverse the decision easily or tweak later. If you're committed without testing the waters first, and it doesn't work, then you're screwed. That's the sort of risk I wouldn't be willing to take.

What you're describing is Agile / Devops. Theoretically applies to software development but I work for a huge multinational and we're going bonkers trying to apply it to anything and everything. Not that we're special - Agile is the latest craze and everyone's at it, our competitors etc. 

[invalid]

3 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

"Sure you're", not "umpire your", damn autocorrect on my phone. 

In other news, we were notified by our energy provider that prices are being raised across the board by 18% in 2 months' time. All the other providers are doing same, or similar. For energy-hungry businesses, this could be the writing on the wall come October/November time. What sort of industries might be hit hardest?

This is an area of interest to me, energy hungry businesses (businesses, rather than industry say like smelting metals).

I've always thought it an obvious area for investment in energy efficiency. Take hotels as an example, it's only been in recent years that I've started to see them replace the 50w halogen downlighters for LEDs. Years ago when staying at hotels I always thought there must be massive scope for energy efficiency. Most hotels seem to be making improvements in recent years.

I apreciate its not that simple and energy efficiency improvements are capital intensive with long paybacks, but as energy costs rise, the payback improves.

18% increase in energy prices is no surprise, just check out the gas futures prices on this chart.

[azzuri82]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Niche repairs and maintenance is never going to go away.

 

In my experience 90% of trades for home maintenance are rubbish, the other 10% are brilliant at what they do and tend to stick together.

Edit to add. I went paye in 2006 to protect my income, went self employed again in 2008 when many guys fell out of the business. 2008 to date has been very lucrative

Smart thing to do. Run in the opposite way to the herd and you'll likely be fine. You often don't even need to do anything particularly ground-breaking, just deliver on what you say you're going to and already you're ahead of 90% of the competition.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - Buffett. - This of course has worked well in mostly every market other than housing over the last 20 years, but hey ho, the further the pendulum swings in one direction, and the more safe / secure an investment seems at the time, the more violent the dislocation that's likely to occur.

[azzuri82]

12 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

What you're describing is Agile / Devops. Theoretically applies to software development but I work for a huge multinational and we're going bonkers trying to apply it to anything and everything. Not that we're special - Agile is the latest craze and everyone's at it, our competitors etc. 

Never knew this was an actual theory, thanks for putting a name to it, are there any books on this you'd recommend?

[leonardratso]

8 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Never knew this was an actual theory, thanks for putting a name to it, are there any books on this you'd recommend?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Agile_software_development

minimum viable product is a tenant to it.

[Hardhat]

23 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

just deliver on what you say you're going to and already you're ahead of 90% of the competition.

It's crazy how obvious this is, and yet in my experience (construction industry) the people who can truly and consistently do this, at all levels, are like gold dust.

I was a self employed contractor for a few years but I went full time employed about 4 years ago with a company that offered me training / progression away from being "on the tools" to project management. I am still in my (late) 20s so I felt it was the right choice for the future to get some qualifications and experience. The money is good now (though I took a slight cut originally) and the work is interesting. There also isn't the chance I will have a quiet few months and start eating in to my savings. I'd still consider going contractor as a PM in the future or starting my own business. I have also been recently using my holiday allowance to do lucrative contracts for other companies, and doing odd jobs at the weekends for local shops etc. Bit worried about a general downturn in construction so trying to make hay while the sun shines, but I have also worked abroad extensively and wouldn't say no to moving abroad for a while if the UK slows right down.

Time to diversify as well maybe...

[dgul]

42 minutes ago, null; said:

This is an area of interest to me, energy hungry businesses (businesses, rather than industry say like smelting metals).

I've always thought it an obvious area for investment in energy efficiency. Take hotels as an example, it's only been in recent years that I've started to see them replace the 50w halogen downlighters for LEDs. Years ago when staying at hotels I always thought there must be massive scope for energy efficiency. Most hotels seem to be making improvements in recent years.

I apreciate its not that simple and energy efficiency improvements are capital intensive with long paybacks, but as energy costs rise, the payback improves.

...

You've got to be careful to ensure that you fully understand what's going on.  Eg, restaurants wouldn't go for energy efficient lighting because they made the food look 'less good' -- they've only taken on LED at the point where the colour rendering is good enough to show the food in the best light.   Hotels didn't like energy efficient lighting because of the delay-to-on and the delay-to-bright.  These are both fairly trivial things, but if you're trying to compete against everyone else then a small increase in costs (or missing out on a small decrease in costs) is bearable so long as you're keeping your customer happy / giving them fewer things to moan about, to the extent that you get more (or not less) trade.

Most businesses are very aware of their costs, including energy.  If they're not 'going down the efficient route' it is nearly always because the (full) sums don't add up.