Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Band]

this cunt is staying until 2020, He is willing to do whatever to get a successful brexit.

He means he is willing to print fuck loads of money to pump up asset prices.

Out of all the  scum immigrants to come to this country in my lifetime, this wanker has done the most damage.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2018/09/11/uk-pay-squeeze-set-make-unwelcome-return-wages-stagnate/

Its because no one but Hammond and May are stupid enough to give him a job.

[DurhamBorn]

31 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Smart thing to do. Run in the opposite way to the herd and you'll likely be fine. You often don't even need to do anything particularly ground-breaking, just deliver on what you say you're going to and already you're ahead of 90% of the competition.

"Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful" - Buffett. - This of course has worked well in mostly every market other than housing over the last 20 years, but hey ho, the further the pendulum swings in one direction, and the more safe / secure an investment seems at the time, the more violent the dislocation that's likely to occur.

Iv used this in my investing for a long time.I do a lot of macro work/cross market work etc that provides me with a road map.However i use a lot of contrarian indicators on top of that.The longer retail investors and funds are short in something the faster and higher the snap back.Retail think they know something nobody else does.Exactly as you say,what looks the safest investment has the worst distribution cycle ahead of it.In the UK most people think houses are the sure bet,and thats one of the reasons they are going to get a massive life changing shock.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Agree with most of this-  great morning on thread- But I view renting as total utter crap because we’ve been evicted twice in last couple of years by Bastard? Landlords who wanted their houses back to live in- NIreland 4 weeks notice each time- it’s terrible for the family.

..and the mind.

I admit to assessing the solvency of the LL's we rent off,whether they're a pro or amateur(won't rent off amateur if I can help it).I also have my sol on speed dial and have regularly used withdrawal of viewings to keep them in line.if that fails,they can get their chequebook out and we'll see them in court until I can find a suitable replacement.Most LL's duck out of court costs particularly if you keep paying the rent.

It's a business and there's nothing worse than dealing with people who don't understand the business.I've had EA's tell me that I signed a contract to allow viewings and they think they can intimidate you into allowing etc(clearly had no legal training). I just get my sols to get in touch with their manager before they get back to the office.Attitude changes next time you see them

Renting has it's upside and downside I concede.However,for me ,tying up a shedload of capital in a house in a future warzone like Leicester is the definition of insanity.If we were getting uprooted every year,I'd have a different view.If we didn't have the 2 or 3 grand it can take to roll onto a separate tenancy,then I'd have a very different view I guess. This country's rental protections are poor.

 

 

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv used this in my investing for a long time.I do a lot of macro work/cross market work etc that provides me with a road map.However i use a lot of contrarian indicators on top of that.The longer retail investors and funds are short in something the faster and higher the snap back.Retail think they know something nobody else does.Exactly as you say,what looks the safest investment has the worst distribution cycle ahead of it.In the UK most people think houses are the sure bet,and thats one of the reasons they are going to get a massive life changing shock.

Absolutely.If you're where the herd is,the going offers a poor risk/reward imho.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, null; said:

This is an area of interest to me, energy hungry businesses (businesses, rather than industry say like smelting metals).

I've always thought it an obvious area for investment in energy efficiency. Take hotels as an example, it's only been in recent years that I've started to see them replace the 50w halogen downlighters for LEDs. Years ago when staying at hotels I always thought there must be massive scope for energy efficiency. Most hotels seem to be making improvements in recent years.

I apreciate its not that simple and energy efficiency improvements are capital intensive with long paybacks, but as energy costs rise, the payback improves.

18% increase in energy prices is no surprise, just check out the gas futures prices on this chart.

Aren’t you just thinking of ways of cutting costs? 

[sancho panza]

@azzuri82 @null;  @DurhamBornand anyone else.

I'm still waiting for the cut price Rightmove where people can pay £1 a week to advertise their house for sale.EA's and the big websites are hugely exposed to new entrants eating their lunch and I don't mean PurpleBricks who charge a chunky £500 and perform some EA functions eg valuation

[eek]

30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

@azzuri82 @null;  @DurhamBornand anyone else.

I'm still waiting for the cut price Rightmove where people can pay £1 a week to advertise their house for sale.EA's and the big websites are hugely exposed to new entrants eating their lunch and I don't mean PurpleBricks who charge a chunky £500 and perform some EA functions eg valuation

As I stated yesterday - Rightmove wins as the internet is built around markets consolidating around the winner, once one site has 60% of the content the other 40% either appears on that site or disappears totally.

As onthemarket showed just/ even being free isn't enough to get people looking at your site....

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I got hit with teh Betfair Premium charge where they levy an extra 20% on top of your 5% commission,hence I packed it in.Gutted.I hate bookies.Look at IG,you can put on what you like as long as there's liquidity.

Bookies on the other hand,are more than happy to take your money if you;'re gambling your kids dinner money but if you do ok,they hammer you and/or won't take your bets.They should be forced to publish the liquidity figures for their markets as Betfair does all the time.Another financial scam that needs closing down.

Must admit I did hesitate about mentioning Betfair due to the Premium Charge. Though that doesn't kick in straight away and I think it's still the best place to start and get a feel for using exchanges. It largely depends what you bet/trade on, if it's in-running horses (like me) you have to pay PC because there isn't enough liquidity for that anywhere else. I think for other markets you could later switch to alternatives like Betdaq, Smarkets or Matchbook.

[Castlevania]

So if you’re profitable Betfair tax you?

[Democorruptcy]

55 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

So if you’re profitable Betfair tax you?

Yes, it's a tax on winners. On a Wednesday they take 20%, 40% or 60% of your week's winning ending the Sunday before.

Basically they want everyone to pay at least 20% on their profit. If people pay commission (2% to 5%) on winning bets but have a lot of winning and losing bets they finish up paying 20% or more on their net profit. This makes sure people who win most of the time, without having lots of losing bets also pay at least 20%. The example they quoted when they brought it in was someone on 2% commission had only paid £6k on £300k profit.

Section 6 https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/#

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, it's a tax on winners. On a Wednesday they take 20%, 40% or 60% of your week's winning ending the Sunday before.

Basically they want everyone to pay at least 20% on their profit. If people pay commission (2% to 5%) on winning bets but have a lot of winning and losing bets they finish up paying 20% or more on their net profit. This makes sure people who win most of the time, without having lots of losing bets also pay at least 20%. The example they quoted when they brought it in was someone on 2% commission had only paid £6k on £300k profit.

Section 6 https://www.betfair.com/aboutUs/Betfair.Charges/#

Thats shocking isnt it.I bet on Betfair in a certain area once a year and win every year (Eurovision betting) and if id know about that before i did id of kept off having the odd fiver on other markets (so i could have the 250 markets rule).I have access to other accounts of course so il never pay it,but its a right pain.Playtech gather all the info for all the bookies and share it between most of them.

[sancho panza]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

So if you’re profitable Betfair tax you?

Yeah they stuck me with an extra 20% on top of my 5% iirc.

Like I said,if I was spunking the kids dinner money,I'd have been fine.

This is why I have little sympathy with them squealing about the charges on the fruit machines that get people addicted.I was into a certain niche betting that I happened to find I was pretty good at.

in some of the more obscure markets I traded, I was about 10% of total liquidity.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats shocking isnt it.I bet on Betfair in a certain area once a year and win every year (Eurovision betting) and if id know about that before i did id of kept off having the odd fiver on other markets (so i could have the 250 markets rule).I have access to other accounts of course so il never pay it,but its a right pain.Playtech gather all the info for all the bookies and share it between most of them.

That was the key to my undoing,loads of random football bets for min stake when  I was experimenting with a few ideas four or five years before.

They even have a special team making sure you don't use a family member or friend.My betting patterns would have stood out a mile so I simply took my toys and threw them out of the pram.

 

Ideally,if you fall foul then a a family member you can trust with a different surname who lives miles away can be helpful.

ref Eurovision,what was liquidity like?

[Castlevania]

It’s a brilliant racket. Market yourself as being really cheap, be the bookmaker and all that and then wack you with a tax if you’re profitable, safe in the knowledge that you probably can’t go anywhere else.

I must be close to that 250 market limit. I’m up over the years, thanks to getting Brexit, Trump and the last GE correct.

Eurovision will have loads of liquidity. People bet heavily on it.

 

[Bricks & Mortar]

Update on GDX at HL. 

Have an email from customer service stating its available.  I've been tryng to open an account specifically to buy this, and would have gone elsewhere if I couldn't get it.  Still some hoops to go through with proving I'm not in the dirty linens business.  Expect to be there in 3-4 weeks.  Hoping it doesn't turn before then. 

[sancho panza]

Shaun Richards today on UK strong employment numbers, the lack of wage growth,increasing number of oldies in the workforce and rising inactivity nymbers.

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2018/09/11/has-uk-employment-peaked-and-if-so-why-arent-wages-rising-faster/

' Indeed it was the rally in employment that signaled the  turn in the UK economy at the opening of 2012 and set the trend some time before the output numbers caught up. If we take a broad sweep the number of people employed in the UK has risen from 29.4 million to 32.4 million. That is not a perfect guide due to problems with how the numbers are measured and the concept of underemployment, but if we switch to hours worked we see they have risen from 935 million per week to 1032 million per week over the same time period.

Unfortunately whilst we face the reality of something of a lost decade for wage growth the establishment has not caught up

Thus even after what is six years now of employment gains we find ourselves facing this situation.

Please take their numbers as a broad brush. It is welcome that they provide historical context,  but also disappointing that they use the CPIH inflation measure which via its use of imputed or fantasy rents is an inappropriate measure for this purpose. Pretty much any other inflation measure would overall show a worse situation.

Work until you drop?

There has been a quite noticeable change in one section of the workforce.

The number of people aged 65 years and older who were in employment more than doubled between January 2006 and July 2018, from 607,000 to 1.26 million. The same age group had an employment rate of 6.6% in 2006 and this increased to 10.7% in the three months to July 2018.

 

Comment

There is a fair bit to consider today and this time around it concerns employment itself. At some point the growth had to tail off and that has perhaps arrived and it has come with something else.

The level of inactivity in the UK went up by 108,000 to 8.76 million in the three months to July 2018, resulting in an inactivity rate of 21.2%. Inactivity increased by 16,000 on the year.

That is an odd change when the employment situation looks so strong and I will be watching it as the rest of 2018 unfolds.

Moving to wages we find ourselves yet again at the mercy of the poor quality of the data. The exclusion of the self-employed, smaller businesses and the armed forces means that they tell us a lot less than they should.'

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Yeah they stuck me with an extra 20% on top of my 5% iirc.

Like I said,if I was spunking the kids dinner money,I'd have been fine.

This is why I have little sympathy with them squealing about the charges on the fruit machines that get people addicted.I was into a certain niche betting that I happened to find I was pretty good at.

in some of the more obscure markets I traded, I was about 10% of total liquidity.

That was the key to my undoing,loads of random football bets for min stake when  I was experimenting with a few ideas four or five years before.

They even have a special team making sure you don't use a family member or friend.My betting patterns would have stood out a mile so I simply took my toys and threw them out of the pram.

 

Ideally,if you fall foul then a a family member you can trust with a different surname who lives miles away can be helpful.

ref Eurovision,what was liquidity like?

Massive liquidity on Eurovision betting,the main event will get a few million traded.Im banned/limited with most bookies now.Hit Ladbrokes hard in their shops on this years winner though,i had big bets at 33/1 and also on the second at 50/1.The Betfair rules are shocking though i have ghost accounts for most bookies.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thats shocking isnt it.I bet on Betfair in a certain area once a year and win every year (Eurovision betting) and if id know about that before i did id of kept off having the odd fiver on other markets (so i could have the 250 markets rule).I have access to other accounts of course so il never pay it,but its a right pain.Playtech gather all the info for all the bookies and share it between most of them.

On the Eurovision you shouldn't need them as there are enough places offering odds. The only problem might be if you wanted to trade out of a position in running, when they might have liquidity other exchanges don't. You not betting in other markets because of it is the problem , it loses them lots of business. I only bet there for in running horses. It depends how you look at it, my best in running race last week was £3k+, I couldn't have done it without them and it's meant not having to work for over 15 years!

[DurhamBorn]

13 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Update on GDX at HL. 

Have an email from customer service stating its available.  I've been tryng to open an account specifically to buy this, and would have gone elsewhere if I couldn't get it.  Still some hoops to go through with proving I'm not in the dirty linens business.  Expect to be there in 3-4 weeks.  Hoping it doesn't turn before then. 

HL still wont let me deal in GDX or GDXJ.Hopefully once Brexit happens we can ditch this crazy rule.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

It’s a brilliant racket. Market yourself as being really cheap, be the bookmaker and all that and then wack you with a tax if you’re profitable, safe in the knowledge that you probably can’t go anywhere else.

I must be close to that 250 market limit. I’m up over the years, thanks to getting Brexit, Trump and the last GE correct.

Eurovision will have loads of liquidity. People bet heavily on it.

 

I can check my exact markets figure (40,000+) in My Account, Betting Activity, Premium Charges on the right of the Lifetime Activity bar. I don't know if that option only shows up if you have paid Premium Charge?

[Hardhat]

20 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Update on GDX at HL. 

Have an email from customer service stating its available.  I've been tryng to open an account specifically to buy this, and would have gone elsewhere if I couldn't get it.  Still some hoops to go through with proving I'm not in the dirty linens business.  Expect to be there in 3-4 weeks.  Hoping it doesn't turn before then. 

Good to know. Need to get some funds in to gdx asap. HL has a low fee iirc?

[Bricks & Mortar]

40 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

HL still wont let me deal in GDX or GDXJ.Hopefully once Brexit happens we can ditch this crazy rule.

"Dear Mr Bricks & Mortar
Thank you for your message.
I can confirm that Vaneck Vectors ETF Gold Miners UCITS (GDX) is currently tradeable on all HL Investment Accounts.
You are able to purchase this online by selecting the green 'Deal' tab on the stocks factsheet."

Thick plottens.  Did you check both?  I didn't see a KIID for GDXJ when I checked on Van Eck site.  Found it for GDX, so asked HL.  Got above answer.

[Bear Hug]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

...

Of course we also have the small fact the PM sector is about to enter a huge bull market and is offering prices that wont ever be seen again probably in our lifetime.I might have to learn to spend a bit more soon  

I have no idea what that chart means.

But do have some "technical analysis" of my own:

I have just read some Kitco article stating that gold/silver price ratio is at it's highest in 20 years. Had a look at what happened to gold price at other peaks.

Jun 2003: local minimum (although there were lower lows in 2003) continued rising to 2006 

Nov 2008: local minimum followed by 3 years of increases

Feb 2016: local minimum followed by 6 months of increases

Presumably silver went up even higher.

This is very approximate, by looking at goldprice.org charts

Just keeping myself busy while counting my PM sector losses )

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Rave]

18 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I got hit with teh Betfair Premium charge where they levy an extra 20% on top of your 5% commission,hence I packed it in.Gutted.I hate bookies.Look at IG,you can put on what you like as long as there's liquidity.

Just got back from an airport run hence why I'm posting at 5am. Haven't really got time to check the rest of the thread to see if this has been picked up already, apologies if it has, I need to get to bed.

Anyway- if you wanted to get back into it, look at SMarkets. 2% commission and no premium charge. I don't actually know how they work, whether they're a true exchange or whether they take your bets with their own money, assuming that the prices on Betfair are accurate and just assuming that the 2% will be their margin overall. Certainly over the last couple of years there's been less liquidity than BF and prices tended to correspond with Betfair exactly; you could sometimes trick them into taking your lay by sticking an opposite back on Betfair then quickly removing it once you were 'matched'. However, recently money has started to show up for football matches on SMarkets before Betfair, so I think the lure of reduced comms and no premium charge might be starting to attract more serious players.

I'm an arber rather than a trader; I don't think SMarkets are as good for in-play trading- I rarely do anything in-play, pretty much only when I've underlaid something and want to lock in more profit. They don't have as many markets as BF but are improving rapidly in that regard. I wouldn't be surprised if Betfair are forced to cut their comms or scrap the premium charge to compete, sooner or later.

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I can check my exact markets figure (40,000+) in My Account, Betting Activity, Premium Charges on the right of the Lifetime Activity bar. I don't know if that option only shows up if you have paid Premium Charge?

I dont see a lifetime activity bar in my account and only shows profit over last 3 months.

[Castlevania]

27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont see a lifetime activity bar in my account and only shows profit over last 3 months.

I think it only shows up when you’re ripe for being squeezed

[Democorruptcy]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont see a lifetime activity bar in my account and only shows profit over last 3 months.

I'm using My Account, Betting Activity then below that is a list of options starting Sportsbook Bets and the last one is Premium Charge, the number of markets is inside that.

Don't worry they will suddenly take Premium Charge without warning you first, you get a £1,000 allowance and an email when you are in their net.