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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Update on the anecdotal from our office since my post the other day:

So this might be an isolated event, but we sell direct to the consumer space and as per previous, although we're perhaps 20-25% of the size of our largest competitor, we have an unparalleled online reputation / presence which means we punch above our weight a bit.

I said the other day that sales for this month and onwards were depressed (we've had 25-50% sales growth y-o-y this year), we are in a seasonal industry so we expect vast dropoffs from October onwards anyway, but it looks like we're going to be fairly flat during September which isn't bad, but isn't quite what we've been expecting given all our extra costs/investments made over the last 12 months in plant/staffing/advertising etc. We produce a range of products / services, which range from as little as £13.00 up to £179.00.

Where the sales tend to be collapsing at the moment is in the cheaper to mid-range. Basically, the cheaper it is, the more difficult it's proving to sell/turn a profit - the volume just isn't there. Bizarrely, the higher priced stuff seems to be powering ahead and sales are ahead of where we expect them to be by comparison, very strange. I was speaking to a similar-sized competitor the other day and he more or less said the same, they produce products up to £300.00, and he's said the higher the price, the easier it is to sell (albeit on much reduced volumes, but much higher margins), so our company and theirs have more or less said that they / we are going to concentrate on the higher margin work over the winter and into 2019/20.

Where we were really expecting sales to continue to be strong during September was the mid-range stuff, which in volume terms is very much the biggest cash cow in the industry, priced at around £45-55 - but the sales for this product have fallen off a cliff since the end of August - not what we were expecting at all in what is still considered to be a fairly strong month.

 

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2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'm using My Account, Betting Activity then below that is a list of options starting Sportsbook Bets and the last one is Premium Charge, the number of markets is inside that.

Don't worry they will suddenly take Premium Charge without warning you first, you get a £1,000 allowance and an email when you are in their net.

I had that a couple of months ago, but it's now disappeared. Possibly because my account has dropped back into not being profitable since I opened it, lost a few lays recently.

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45 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Possible good news for New Gold. They’ve appointed a new CEO who appears to have a lot of experience in reducing costs/increasing production. Fingers crossed this marks a low...

https://seekingalpha.com/pr/17267138-new-gold-announces-appointment-president-ceo

They certainly took their time, didn't they.

Risk of bankruptcy falls below 100% again.

I wonder when good people at Tahoe will grow some balls and do the same.

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cant get too excited by it, has to gain 120% after the near on 60% loss, luckily i had hardly shag all in it, im not gonna bitch about a few million (Zimbabwe dollars).

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Some interesting trends in markets this week  - possibly a bottom in silver and gold, maybe a higher low in in TLT and perhaps some relief for EM currencies and stock markets coming from a weaker dollar as predicted by DB? Think we should know within a week or so but my feel is that US ten year won’t break 3% which I think is the key to the near term for gold and DXY. Chance for sterling to run up now this autumn which might be the last chance to get out at around 1.40 to the USD there’s certainly some shorts to be squeezed there to generate that kind of move.

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7 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Great, so the entire economy is to be nationalised?! xD

So this is what they mean by free market economics...sooner we learn to cut out the middle men the better...no wonder the powers that be were so quick to try and poopoo the cryptos on behalf of their paymasters as they can't control those lik they can the fiats...is there any law to stop us from paying each other in gold for servics, or even bartering?...bring back the Middle Ages, that's what I say!

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
On 05/09/2018 at 11:43, Sugarlips said:

Curious what reearch you did on NGD originally and/or what triggered such a dramatic drop?

If there is no clear reason and the idea of succeeding in miners is to be counter intuitive + beaten up prices are a key part of the buying logic here would this be a good one to start averaging into ..for those of us with disposable and yet to enter the market anyway?

Cheers

 
FIRST up is ...I have these PM's as a speculative punt, the amount of moola i have in them i can afford to lose the lot!
 
My main research/criteria for these PM's is the charts, NGD looked TOTALLY bombed out, so i took a punt...
 
BTW, if ya had been watching NGD you would of seen the chart hit around the $1.00 and ZOOMED UP 25%...now question is did you get ya order on OR did I average down er...no lol!xD
 
EDIT:
BTW, I've been watching Yamana Gold, and it hit around $3.00 on Tuesday, now i should of bought cos looking at the 10 year chart this looks like a support area, ...anyway I bought yesterday @ 3.29...lets see what happens!
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It's not just bricks&mortar retail, either. I work for an online-only fashion retailer and we've been missing revenue forecasts big time for the last two months at least. Somewhat surprisingly, it was mostly driven by Germany and US, with UK sales holding up very nicely in comparison. Anyway, I expect a very underwhelming financial report next month.

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19 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

SSE profits down 50%

I've just bought some.

 

I was waiting until they split the retail side off because its the network side i want,but iv bought today.The network side should be around 7% dividend on todays prices and then the spin off shares on top.Il probably sell the spin off shares as soon as i get them and put them back into the remaining SSE.If the spin off shares end up worth around 10% of the value today of SSE it would mean a networks side dividend of around 7.8%.I usually staircase in 4 slots,but im going to do this one in 3.

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Odd thing I've noticed today... my GDX and GDXJ on AJBELL have been rolled in to GBP versions: GDGB, GJGB. I bought both as the USD versions. Did have some GDGB before but now my GDX holding has been merged with them.

Some changes in the background perhaps? Are GDGB/GJGB available on HL or other platforms?

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27 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Odd thing I've noticed today... my GDX and GDXJ on AJBELL have been rolled in to GBP versions: GDGB, GJGB. I bought both as the USD versions. Did have some GDGB before but now my GDX holding has been merged with them.

Some changes in the background perhaps? Are GDGB/GJGB available on HL or other platforms?

From what I've seen GDGB/JGB have been listed for a while. I can't buy them with Interactive Investor though

"This stock cannot be held in a SIPP.

Common reasons why a stock may not be eligible for a SIPP include the following:

Stock must be listed on a Recognised Stock Exchange.

Stock must not be listed on either ICAP Securities and Derivative exchange, Over The Counter Bulletin Board or Pink Sheets.

Futures, Options, Contracts for Differences (CFD), and Unlisted Hedge Funds are ineligible."

I've not actually phoned them to ask them why it won't go through. It's unfortunate as I would rather buy the GBP as II's FX rates are terrible

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1 minute ago, Admiral Pepe said:

From what I've seen GDGB/JGB have been listed for a while. I can't buy them with Interactive Investor though

I was aware of GDGB last time I bought a batch so I used that, previously I had bought GDX. I had separate holdings listed of GDX and GDGB, now I just have GDGB. 

Never bought any GJGB, only GDXJ, but I now only have GJGB showing on my portfolio.

Seems odd to have GBP variants/listings of the ETFs when so few platforms allow you to buy them.

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sleepwello'nights
On ‎10‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 20:32, MrXxx said:

Finally, you have to overcome the short term thinking regarding investment (especially plant) that is apparent in UK manufacturing, where the attitude is "The current machine is still operational and we can't really afford a new one", rather than "although the machine is still operational it is no longer efficient, and so we cannot afford not to replace it"

You've articulated the attitude that has permeated the UK throughout my life, its the managed decline that our civil service thinks is our only option.

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9 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

I was aware of GDGB last time I bought a batch so I used that, previously I had bought GDX. I had separate holdings listed of GDX and GDGB, now I just have GDGB. 

Never bought any GJGB, only GDXJ, but I now only have GJGB showing on my portfolio.

Seems odd to have GBP variants/listings of the ETFs when so few platforms allow you to buy them.

Can you confirm the actual charges you get with the GDX ETF? The published TER figure seems lower than the quoted costs with II. 0.53% versus 0.86%. The GDXJ is even higher.

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