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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was waiting until they split the retail side off because its the network side i want,but iv bought today.The network side should be around 7% dividend on todays prices and then the spin off shares on top.Il probably sell the spin off shares as soon as i get them and put them back into the remaining SSE.If the spin off shares end up worth around 10% of the value today of SSE it would mean a networks side dividend of around 7.8%.I usually staircase in 4 slots,but im going to do this one in 3.

Do you know how much the spun off retail side is likely to be worth relative to the rest of the business? I’m assuming all the debt will remain with the network/power generation side.

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11 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Can you confirm the actual charges you get with the GDX ETF? The published TER figure seems lower than the quoted costs with II. 0.53% versus 0.86%. The GDXJ is even higher.

The charges are taken opaquely from income or the funds 'cash' as generally with ETFs/ITs, I've certainly seen no notes from AJB with charges for these holdings coming directly from my cash in my ISA (though my biggest gripe with AJBell is that it lacks a quick view 'statement'). TER is listed as .53% for the GDGB and GJGB is .52%

Edit: Are II rolling FX charges in to the quoted costs?

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Do you know how much the spun off retail side is likely to be worth relative to the rest of the business? I’m assuming all the debt will remain with the network/power generation side.

Iv been digging to try to work that out,but the info is hard to come by.The new combined retail business should have 12 million customers.If we say around £30 a customer profit that should be around £360 million.That might give a market value of £1.7 billion.SSE get 2/3s so around 8% of the present value of SSE.

Those figures could be way off,but just the back of a fag packet number.At a guess id say between 8% and 13% of SSEs value today.

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4 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"John Lewis reports 99% Slump in half-year profits"

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/john-lewis-reports-99-slump-061500941.htm

With these news stories it really looks like consumers are finally tapped out!:oxD

Got a lot of top quality cod off the fish counter in Tesco last night,they were reduced from £4.50 area a bag to 90p a bag,got 8 bags.Also got a large cooked chicken for 90p instead of £6 and lots of other good stuff including apples and pears.I now have to hold a few items in the freezers with a stick while i close the door they are so full,no room in any.Looks like i might have to pick up another freezer from Gumtree for £30 xD.Eyes open for a new metal detector as well.I missed out this year without one as you can find a nice amount of money doing the public parks at night the night after a music festival etc.Has to be at night as they wont let you on though.The line of the beer tent always coughs up a lot of change.

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I was waiting until they split the retail side off because its the network side i want,but iv bought today.The network side should be around 7% dividend on todays prices and then the spin off shares on top.Il probably sell the spin off shares as soon as i get them and put them back into the remaining SSE.If the spin off shares end up worth around 10% of the value today of SSE it would mean a networks side dividend of around 7.8%.I usually staircase in 4 slots,but im going to do this one in 3.

I bought some on AJ Bell regular investment (on the 10th), naturally just before they had a huge drop this week.  May get some more next month if they don't go too high by the 10th.

Small amounts, so probably worth waiting for cheaper fee regular investment for me.

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Just now, DoINeedOne said:

Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, has delivered a “chilling” warning to Treason May’s cabinet that a no-deal Brexit could lead to economic chaos, including a property crash that could see house prices fall by a third.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/984b15e0-b76b-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe

It's great for him.  This is about to happen with or without brexit, and now he'll be able to say he told us so.

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29 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Mark Carney, Bank of England governor, has delivered a “chilling” warning to Treason May’s cabinet that a no-deal Brexit could lead to economic chaos, including a property crash that could see house prices fall by a third.

 

https://www.ft.com/content/984b15e0-b76b-11e8-bbc3-ccd7de085ffe

Thatd be about the only thing that'd enable the Tory party to win the next election.

No crashy crashy no Tory majority for a very long time.

Sad thing is as this fraudster is predicting it, it is unlikely to happen, especially as Hammonds recently given him 750bln to keep the bubble inflated.

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9 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

The charges are taken opaquely from income or the funds 'cash' as generally with ETFs/ITs, I've certainly seen no notes from AJB with charges for these holdings coming directly from my cash in my ISA (though my biggest gripe with AJBell is that it lacks a quick view 'statement'). TER is listed as .53% for the GDGB and GJGB is .52%

Edit: Are II rolling FX charges in to the quoted costs?

Nope seperate. 0.53 for on-going costs and 0.33 for transaction costs. GDXJ is even more at 0.55 on-going at 1.58 transaction. Then II levy a nice 1.5% FX charge on the amount I would change. What's your allocation split of GDX to GDXJ?

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1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Nope seperate. 0.53 for on-going costs and 0.33 for transaction costs. GDXJ is even more at 0.55 on-going at 1.58 transaction. Then II levy a nice 1.5% FX charge on the amount I would change. What's your allocation split of GDX to GDXJ?

Isn't there £10 fee for dealing in addition on AJ Bell?  

So far I have experimented with AJ Bell and Degiro for PM funds

Charges, ignoring annual custody are

AJ Bell:

GJGB: 

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.55%
  • Transaction: 1.58%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £9.95 

GDX:

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.53%
  • Transaction: 0.33%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £9.95 

iShares Gold Producers:

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.55%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £1.50 (if bought as regular investment on the 10th) 

Blackrock Gold and General D (not ETF)

  • Annual ongoing charge: 1.17%
  • Transaction: 0.05%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £1.50 

Degiro:

GDX (not as transparent with fees but looks like dealing is only £1.75 + 0.001% on FX)  

I suspect Degiro just doesn't show the annual ongoing charge and transaction charge within GDX but they are there.  However, dealing is cheaper, but it's all outside ISA/SIPP wrappers in Degiro.

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18 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Isn't there £10 fee for dealing in addition on AJ Bell?  

So far I have experimented with AJ Bell and Degiro for PM funds

Charges, ignoring annual custody are

AJ Bell:

GJGB: 

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.55%
  • Transaction: 1.58%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £9.95 

GDX:

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.53%
  • Transaction: 0.33%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £9.95 

iShares Gold Producers:

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.55%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £1.50 (if bought as regular investment on the 10th) 

Blackrock Gold and General D (not ETF)

  • Annual ongoing charge: 1.17%
  • Transaction: 0.05%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £1.50 

Degiro:

GDX (not as transparent with fees but looks like dealing is only £1.75 + 0.001% on FX)  

I suspect Degiro just doesn't show the annual ongoing charge and transaction charge within GDX but they are there.  However, dealing is cheaper, but it's all outside ISA/SIPP wrappers in Degiro.

Thanks for the heads up on the iShares ETF. Seems like that ETF isn't getting swamped with opaque transaction costs and is tracking its benchmark better than GDX. Can also get that within the regular investing on II.

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13 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Thanks for the heads up on the iShares ETF. Seems like that ETF isn't getting swamped with opaque transaction costs and is tracking its benchmark better than GDX. Can also get that within the regular investing on II.

I just thought I'll double check the iShares on AJBell website, rather than in app:

Investment Fees (estimated)Fund %
Ongoing Cost 0.55
Transaction Fee -0.07

A discount!

However, there is also this:

Investment Fees (one off)

Switching Fee 3.00%

AJ Bell: iShares fees

I have no idea what the switching fee is and I don't see it contributing to fees in AJ Bell's example.

If anyone knows what it is and when it applies, please let me know.  Thanks!

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5 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

I just thought I'll double check the iShares on AJBell website, rather than an app:

Investment Fees (estimated)Fund %
Ongoing Cost 0.55
Transaction Fee -0.07

A discount!

However, there is also this:

Investment Fees (one off)

Switching Fee3.00%

 

Is that a fee for switching ETFs with AJ Bell or specific to SPGP? I can't see any sign of any extra/additional fees. The discount is shown on II too. Also, the SPGP is trading at  -2.28% discount

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11 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Is that a fee for switching ETFs with AJ Bell or specific to SPGP? I can't see any sign of any extra/additional fees. The discount is shown on II too. Also, the SPGP is trading at  -2.28% discount

Googled another iShares switching fees in general and got the answer!:

Quote

iShares MSCI Japan is quoted in sterling on the London Stock Exchange, and like other funds within the iShares range, there are no subscription or redemption fees, although there is a three per cent switching fee for transfers to other iShares funds.

Source: https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2011/11/11/ishares-etf-offers-cheap-japan-exposure-GeO7GnmoTUCXHIvCh2zq4O/article.html

So, it looks like general buying/selling is not affected by the 3%.

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@Bear Hug Good work. I'm going with this SPGP ETF for now then. Will start dollar-cost averaging in from the 19th (ii's regular investing date). Fees are much more in line for where I would like them to be. Shame there's not an equivalent for the junior ETF.

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Just to add today,the commercials are net long gold,silver and platinum.The first time in history.I asked my friend why he thought this had happened and he said something id never really considered.He said because they are probably going to take delivery and then turn the screw on the shorts as they try to secure supply.The commercials get supply from the miners so by going long they are simply saying we can get it cheaper from the shorts than the mines,but the shorts probably arent expecting the other side of the trade to actually take delivery.

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On 12/09/2018 at 05:15, Rave said:

Just got back from an airport run hence why I'm posting at 5am. Haven't really got time to check the rest of the thread to see if this has been picked up already, apologies if it has, I need to get to bed.

Anyway- if you wanted to get back into it, look at SMarkets. 2% commission and no premium charge. I don't actually know how they work, whether they're a true exchange or whether they take your bets with their own money, assuming that the prices on Betfair are accurate and just assuming that the 2% will be their margin overall. Certainly over the last couple of years there's been less liquidity than BF and prices tended to correspond with Betfair exactly; you could sometimes trick them into taking your lay by sticking an opposite back on Betfair then quickly removing it once you were 'matched'. However, recently money has started to show up for football matches on SMarkets before Betfair, so I think the lure of reduced comms and no premium charge might be starting to attract more serious players.

I'm an arber rather than a trader; I don't think SMarkets are as good for in-play trading- I rarely do anything in-play, pretty much only when I've underlaid something and want to lock in more profit. They don't have as many markets as BF but are improving rapidly in that regard. I wouldn't be surprised if Betfair are forced to cut their comms or scrap the premium charge to compete, sooner or later.

Thanks for posting .After my effective ban, I had a look at SMarkets and Betdaq,but they didn't cover the markets i was interested in.I'm in no way as sophisticated as some of you guys, I was merely researching and backing.

For me,it's an open goal,it's only a matter of time before a lot of the liquid money leaves BF,it just needs one of the others to get busier.I'm amazed the big players haven't moved en masse tbh,it must be costing some of them a fortune.

On 12/09/2018 at 08:54, azzuri82 said:

Update on the anecdotal from our office since my post the other day:

So this might be an isolated event, but we sell direct to the consumer space and as per previous, although we're perhaps 20-25% of the size of our largest competitor, we have an unparalleled online reputation / presence which means we punch above our weight a bit.

I said the other day that sales for this month and onwards were depressed (we've had 25-50% sales growth y-o-y this year), we are in a seasonal industry so we expect vast dropoffs from October onwards anyway, but it looks like we're going to be fairly flat during September which isn't bad, but isn't quite what we've been expecting given all our extra costs/investments made over the last 12 months in plant/staffing/advertising etc. We produce a range of products / services, which range from as little as £13.00 up to £179.00.

Where the sales tend to be collapsing at the moment is in the cheaper to mid-range. Basically, the cheaper it is, the more difficult it's proving to sell/turn a profit - the volume just isn't there. Bizarrely, the higher priced stuff seems to be powering ahead and sales are ahead of where we expect them to be by comparison, very strange. I was speaking to a similar-sized competitor the other day and he more or less said the same, they produce products up to £300.00, and he's said the higher the price, the easier it is to sell (albeit on much reduced volumes, but much higher margins), so our company and theirs have more or less said that they / we are going to concentrate on the higher margin work over the winter and into 2019/20.

Where we were really expecting sales to continue to be strong during September was the mid-range stuff, which in volume terms is very much the biggest cash cow in the industry, priced at around £45-55 - but the sales for this product have fallen off a cliff since the end of August - not what we were expecting at all in what is still considered to be a fairly strong month.

 

I don't know what sort of products you sell Azzurri, but the bottom and middle collapsing before the top makes a lot of sense.Take Mama P, well off,house paid off,more income than she can spend.

Those who buy lower items tend to be more price sensitive.But this coincides with my that small/medium size co. directors have a better read on the economy due to their proximity to shrot term order books.

On 12/09/2018 at 12:11, Barnsey said:

I despair...

Fed Should Buy Stocks In The Next Recession: Former IMF Chief Economist

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-10/fed-should-buy-stocks-next-recession-former-imf-chief-economist-0

Because the everything bubble has worked out so well this time.You do wonder what these people are smoking.

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15 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

"John Lewis reports 99% Slump in half-year profits"

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/john-lewis-reports-99-slump-061500941.htm

With these news stories it really looks like consumers are finally tapped out!:oxD

I think that's an impressive downturn even by HoFs standards.

To be fair,I was in the Leicaster version with Mrs P and one of the baby Panza's and whilst she was clucking around the baby section,yours truly was eyeing the vast amount of square footage without a single customer in it.Admittedly,it's an anchor store and probably got on cheap cheap rent,but dead is dead.There were loads of staf or should I say 'partners' on and they really are nice and unharassed.However,the idea that John Lewis would somehow bypass the squall affecting the High St was always a dubious claim.Noone is going to be immune to the inroads being made by the online market place unless you are the online market place.

14 hours ago, kibuc said:

It's not just bricks&mortar retail, either. I work for an online-only fashion retailer and we've been missing revenue forecasts big time for the last two months at least. Somewhat surprisingly, it was mostly driven by Germany and US, with UK sales holding up very nicely in comparison. Anyway, I expect a very underwhelming financial report next month.

FAscinating,love the reports from the coal face.

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 xD.Eyes open for a new metal detector as well.I missed out this year without one as you can find a nice amount of money doing the public parks at night the night after a music festival etc.Has to be at night as they wont let you on though.The line of the beer tent always coughs up a lot of change.

You don't miss a trick do you.

4 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

It's great for him.  This is about to happen with or without brexit, and now he'll be able to say he told us so.

That's my view.They'll hail himas a visionary if there's a recession after brexit.Instead of being honest and telling the punters the recession that's just arrived at platform 5 is the delayed 2008 express to nowhere fast.

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39 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Just to add today,the commercials are net long gold,silver and platinum.The first time in history.I asked my friend why he thought this had happened and he said something id never really considered.He said because they are probably going to take delivery and then turn the screw on the shorts as they try to secure supply.The commercials get supply from the miners so by going long they are simply saying we can get it cheaper from the shorts than the mines,but the shorts probably arent expecting the other side of the trade to actually take delivery.

Interesting idea.If ever there's a lot of punters short,it makes sense they'll get lined up.

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10 hours ago, Bear Hug said:

AJ Bell:

GJGB: 

  • Annual ongoing charge: 0.55%
  • Transaction: 1.58%
  • AJ Bell dealing: £9.95 

Edit: Ok found it... but it doesn't match yours:

image.png.5cb15496a0b375cddc51c721ef83cdf6.png

Ignore the £ values, I got a quote for 1 share... :)

12 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Nope seperate. 0.53 for on-going costs and 0.33 for transaction costs. GDXJ is even more at 0.55 on-going at 1.58 transaction. Then II levy a nice 1.5% FX charge on the amount I would change. What's your allocation split of GDX to GDXJ?

3:2 atm, around 10% of my portfolio. 

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1 minute ago, Admiral Pepe said:

@Cosmic Apple Thanks!! Just on the fees there it does look like that's the main Miners ETF not the Junior ETF. This is from the AJ Bell site:image.png.08a9aea832202fee9438922220aa1034.png

I should stop trying to juggle work and responding on here... you're right.

I had missed that I'm honestly ashamed to say.

For a buy once, sell once I don't think its too much of an issue for the exposure to that market... though in hindsight I may have just kept to the GDX/GDGB. I'd not be hopping in/out that's for sure! (I hope to ride it up, get out and forget about it... get in to 'normal'/'boring' shares. Then again I've been building cash since 2015 waiting for the apocalypse... what do I know :()

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10 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

I should stop trying to juggle work and responding on here... you're right.

I had missed that I'm honestly ashamed to say.

For a buy once, sell once I don't think its too much of an issue for the exposure to that market... though in hindsight I may have just kept to the GDX/GDGB. I'd not be hopping in/out that's for sure! (I hope to ride it up, get out and forget about it... get in to 'normal'/'boring' shares. Then again I've been building cash since 2015 waiting for the apocalypse... what do I know :()

It's all good. They're not making it easy for us with the multiple listings either.

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4 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

It's all good. They're not making it easy for us with the multiple listings either.

On the face of it, you read the KIID it says 'up to 5%', but the key stats show '-', which isn't £0/0% I'll admit... its only when you get a quote can you see the costs listed on AJBELL... sneaky verging on misleading if deliberate I'd say.

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