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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, dgul said:

We've had decades of rises with the occasional blip down -- why not the same in reverse?

[but note -- in real terms.  It might appear to be drifting sideways]

Eg, this is Japan (note inflation adjusted, but Japan hasn't seen big inflation so the drop hasn't been masked by inflation):

Japan-residential-urban-land-price-index

See you made my point before me.My apologies.

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I would have thought we'd be at that point much sooner than this time next year SP

In terms of the Uk I've seena number os tocks roll over long term indicators.Check out my short thread and see the lsit I'm active in.

My reason for saying 2019 for the big cahuna is that this year has seen record share buy backs in the USA, and generally,we don't crash off those years.

I reserve the right to be wrong,as we all do,but whilst my UK short portoflio is growing by the day,my US one has barely started.

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25 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I agree. As much as they've kept the plates spinning for the last few years, I just can't see another 12 months in this bull market. Too many chickens coming home to roost at once. I'd be surprised if there was as much as 6 months left, to be honest. It could be as early as next month when it all kicks off...

As per our various discussions on the short thread Azzuri,I'm agnostic about when it happens.

I pick industries and sectors that have structural weaknesses and then look to find the weaker links via my chart work.

Surprising amounts of UK blue chips are rolling over long term indicator after long term indicator,but in the US we're yet to really start.

There are a lot of world indices thathave had a tough 2018 so far.Not least China which has already had a hammering.

But the next big vcrash will time off the US....again!!! And they don't look crash tastic yet to me.

 

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3 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

As per our various discussions on the short thread Azzuri,I'm agnostic about when it happens.

I pick industries and sectors that have structural weaknesses and then look to find the weaker links via my chart work.

Surprising amounts of UK blue chips are rolling over long term indicator after long term indicator,but in the US we're yet to really start.

There are a lot of world indices thathave had a tough 2018 so far.Not least China which has already had a hammering.

But the next big vcrash will time off the US....again!!! And they don't look crash tastic yet to me.

 

The timeline is fairly unimportant to me as well, I just can't see it lasting as long as some. I'm not going to be making any big bets on the timeline, but I think we'll all be surprised the 'cause' of the eventual unravelling, and by how quickly it unfolds when it actually happens.

I'm not one who believes that what's coming is something that will be possible to make any money from, regardless. I know there's two sides to every trade, but I think the winners in all of this will be the ones whom act defensively in order to make sure they end up 'least worst'.

Only the paranoid survive, as they say... 

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5 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Your last point is the crux of the matter...in fact I think it was DB who spoke before about taking a DB pension early (and sacrificing a %) as a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush!

 

As for coming back to FT work and shunting anything £12k plus into a Sipp, I thought as well as a lifetime allowance there was a yearly allowance as well to stop people from doing this?

Yes il be taking my small DB pension as soon as i can.As for my Sipp im always torn between saving the tax and trusting if the date will be pushed back when you can access.I have very little in my Sipp at the moment and im tempted to try to get it to tax allowance level+ 25% (tax free cash amount) x 10 so i could draw it down over 57 to 67 tax free.

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49 minutes ago, macca said:

My car is so crap someone gave it too me for FREE.. :D

I'm waiting for the day when my kids start refusing lifts home from school..

Id rather go on holiday than spend money on stuff.. Although I am a little addicted to old cars and motorbikes but I buy them not working and fix them so I normally make a profit!

You want to see my van.I paid £800 for it 3 years ago,the paint has faded to several different shades where people have scrubbed old signs off it.The wheels look like they have been on the sea bed for a few decades.My car is now 13 years old iv had it for 8 of those.All my family chip in for the insurance on it and borrow it whenever theirs are out of action for any reason.Its better than a brand new car in the 80s though still.

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19 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

The timeline is fairly unimportant to me as well, I just can't see it lasting as long as some. I'm not going to be making any big bets on the timeline, but I think we'll all be surprised the 'cause' of the eventual unravelling, and by how quickly it unfolds when it actually happens.

I'm not one who believes that what's coming is something that will be possible to make any money from, regardless. I know there's two sides to every trade, but I think the winners in all of this will be the ones whom act defensively in order to make sure they end up 'least worst'.

Only the paranoid survive, as they say... 

Absolutely.Wise words .

On your first point.Someone-might have been Mish Shedlock-said that markets never crash off bad news but rather good news that isn't good enough or no news.I'd go with that.There have been umpteen reasons for a crash in Europe-Brexit,Grexit,Italian/Spainish/Portugese banking crises,detbs(private/public) etc etc but one still hasn't happened.

The reality is that any the people who question generally survive these sorts of events more than those who don't.

Your allusion to survival made me think.

I'd go with the below in terms of survival charactersitics except maybe inutition.And despite what my firends would say,I'm not a pessimist,I'm rather someone who can do basic maths......

 

 

 

https://modernsurvivalblog.com/survival-skills/survivor-traits-and-ability/

'The following list of characteristic traits I believe to be partially or largely common among the personality and character of the survivalist prepper:


 

ADAPTABILITY
The ability to adapt to a situation is easier said than done. It is perhaps the #1 survival trait to a desired outcome under difficult circumstances. Being able to improvise not only requires practical experience and knowledge of many things and situations, it also works best with a mindset of openness – not being restricted by fear or normalcy bias.

CURIOSITY

A natural curiosity of how things work or why things are the way they are, facilitates more adaptability. Simply accepting something does not necessarily lead to knowledge, understanding, and workings of that something.

NOT AN OPTIMIST OR A PESSIMIST
A good blend of both optimism and pessimism lends the ability to see the negative of a situation without the debilitating side-effects of negativity or excessive pessimism. Too much of one or the other upsets the balance of clear thinking.

ABILITY TO STAY CALM
Staying or regaining calm enables critical and clear thinking whereas high emotions may cloud judgement and good decision-making. Being able to function in a effective capacity during an adrenaline dump is not easy. Some have never experienced this – but if and when you do, you’ll understand the issue.

LOOKING BEYOND MISTAKES

The ability to move on after a mistake or failure while not wasting time or getting bogged down in what is now the past. Move forward. Look to the future.

INTUITION
The power of intuition – ‘knowing’ without knowing why – is a powerful survivor trait. Gut instincts not only come from experience, but there’s some ‘magic’ going on too… a unique combination of our senses.

BREAKING THE RULES
Thinking outside the box. Questioning, bending, or breaking the rules when necessary. Most people simply accept the yokes and chains which are placed upon them while a few others do not necessarily accept this under all circumstances.

WILL TO SURVIVE
It takes a strong will to survive when the going gets extremely tough. Some give up while others press on.

RESOLVE
I will do it! The mission will be accomplished.

ABILITY TO MAKE DECISIONS
Most people seem to have general difficulty making decisions, especially under difficult circumstances. The ability to make decisions (especially good ones) is an attribute. Keep things moving forward.

FORESIGHT
Insight, anticipation, and foresight comes from a combination of knowledge, experience, and situational awareness.

PLAN AHEAD
The ability to plan ahead, stay organized and work towards a goal.'

 

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32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely.Wise words .

On your first point.Someone-might have been Mish Shedlock-said that markets never crash off bad news but rather good news that isn't good enough or no news.I'd go with that.There have been umpteen reasons for a crash in Europe-Brexit,Grexit,Italian/Spainish/Portugese banking crises,detbs(private/public) etc etc but one still hasn't happened.

The reality is that any the people who question generally survive these sorts of events more than those who don't.

Your allusion to survival made me think.

I'd go with the below in terms of survival charactersitics except maybe inutition.And despite what my firends would say,I'm not a pessimist,I'm rather someone who can do basic maths......

 

 

 

https://modernsurvivalblog.com/survival-skills/survivor-traits-and-ability/

'The following list of characteristic traits I believe to be partially or largely common among the personality and character of the survivalist prepper:


 

ADAPTABILITY
The ability to adapt to a situation is easier said than done. It is perhaps the #1 survival trait to a desired outcome under difficult circumstances. Being able to improvise not only requires practical experience and knowledge of many things and situations, it also works best with a mindset of openness – not being restricted by fear or normalcy bias.

CURIOSITY

A natural curiosity of how things work or why things are the way they are, facilitates more adaptability. Simply accepting something does not necessarily lead to knowledge, understanding, and workings of that something.

NOT AN OPTIMIST OR A PESSIMIST
A good blend of both optimism and pessimism lends the ability to see the negative of a situation without the debilitating side-effects of negativity or excessive pessimism. Too much of one or the other upsets the balance of clear thinking.

ABILITY TO STAY CALM
Staying or regaining calm enables critical and clear thinking whereas high emotions may cloud judgement and good decision-making. Being able to function in a effective capacity during an adrenaline dump is not easy. Some have never experienced this – but if and when you do, you’ll understand the issue.

LOOKING BEYOND MISTAKES

The ability to move on after a mistake or failure while not wasting time or getting bogged down in what is now the past. Move forward. Look to the future.

INTUITION
The power of intuition – ‘knowing’ without knowing why – is a powerful survivor trait. Gut instincts not only come from experience, but there’s some ‘magic’ going on too… a unique combination of our senses.

BREAKING THE RULES
Thinking outside the box. Questioning, bending, or breaking the rules when necessary. Most people simply accept the yokes and chains which are placed upon them while a few others do not necessarily accept this under all circumstances.

WILL TO SURVIVE
It takes a strong will to survive when the going gets extremely tough. Some give up while others press on.

RESOLVE
I will do it! The mission will be accomplished.

ABILITY TO MAKE DECISIONS
Most people seem to have general difficulty making decisions, especially under difficult circumstances. The ability to make decisions (especially good ones) is an attribute. Keep things moving forward.

FORESIGHT
Insight, anticipation, and foresight comes from a combination of knowledge, experience, and situational awareness.

PLAN AHEAD
The ability to plan ahead, stay organized and work towards a goal.'

 

Absolutely. I'm the same, lots of folk would call me 'pessimistic' but I can do the arithmetic, and think of myself as a realist.

I've found myself in some fairly extreme circumstances (some life-threatening or career / financially ruining), and rather than panic, I'm always amazed at how calm I am when the shit hits the fan, I kind of just follow a bunch of steps that seem like the most logical thing to do under the circumstances. It's probably when I'm most calm, after something's gone terribly wrong.

The anticipation of what's coming has sent my anxiety levels through the roof, but I know when the crash comes I and my family will be better placed than most, and we will have the flexibility to make the decisions we need to in order to survive (and hopefully thrive).

At the moment, just trying to position ourselves so we are as healthy and strong as can be (mentally and physically) for what's to come, both as individuals and as a couple. My missus doesn't really understand any of this stuff, but she does trust me and is kind of just going with the flow and letting me do what I think is best - no pressure then!

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This Bloomberg piece reminded me of a Nordic drama that BBC4 put on, "Follow the Money".

I disagree with the NASDAQ opinion on Black Swan, a quick whip round and we will say no more on the matter.

Carbon Credits and spreads on Energy Markets, they sure are going to miss his tax contribution.

 

 

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9 hours ago, macca said:

My car is so crap someone gave it too me for FREE.. :D

I'm waiting for the day when my kids start refusing lifts home from school..

Id rather go on holiday than spend money on stuff.. Although I am a little addicted to old cars and motorbikes but I buy them not working and fix them so I normally make a profit!

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

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2 hours ago, null; said:

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

and apparently very crappy.

Id agree with you, i dont want to be 1 breakdown away from absolute bankruptcy.

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2 hours ago, null; said:

A relative called me 'tight' once because I had enough money to buy a brand new car but chose to keep an old one going.

And there have been occasions where I have bought used Audis and BMWs for less money than a work colleague paid for their new ford focus and I got comments of "you must be getting paid too much". These were the same people that were paying £200 to a main stealer for a service on their ford when I could DIY service mine in a couple of hours for around £60.

I'll admit I might appear tight in some ways, but what people miss is that I don't want to be the richest man in the graveyard. It's just about priorities, I would rather forgoe costa coffee and use the money for some great days out with the kids. I'll spend/invest my money, I'm just not interested in showey displays of material objects - round here the classic example being a range rover evoque, I really just don't see the appeal of them but they are very popular.

One of the most interesting characters i ever worked with retired at 50.He used to get it all the time,questions why he had an old car,but a good job.Why he lived on a council estate etc.He told me he was buying things every day.He was buying a tuesday morning 4 years away in January at 5am when it was pissing down and he wouldnt have to get up.He priced everything on how much longer he would have to work.

Everyone can do as they choose of course.Iv got friends who are on IO mortgages ,hardly any equity,working 21 hours for the tax credits,book £400 xmas lunch at a local hotel etc.Where i have a problem is i know very well in 6 years when the kids are over 18 and they have 17 years until pension age they will blame everyone but themselves.

Tax credits and government deficits have blinded people into a lot of it.The other side of course is a lot really do think their house is their pension.People have lost the link between earning their money through work instead of handed from government or housing equity.

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5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

One of the most interesting characters i ever worked with retired at 50.He used to get it all the time,questions why he had an old car,but a good job.Why he lived on a council estate etc.He told me he was buying things every day.He was buying a tuesday morning 4 years away in January at 5am when it was pissing down and he wouldnt have to get up.He priced everything on how much longer he would have to work.

Everyone can do as they choose of course.Iv got friends who are on IO mortgages ,hardly any equity,working 21 hours for the tax credits,book £400 xmas lunch at a local hotel etc.Where i have a problem is i know very well in 6 years when the kids are over 18 and they have 17 years until pension age they will blame everyone but themselves.

Tax credits and government deficits have blinded people into a lot of it.The other side of course is a lot really do think their house is their pension.People have lost the link between earning their money through work instead of handed from government or housing equity.

Retire at 50 was always my goal. While that's now not going to happen, I'm happy to continue with the work I do now, especially as for me retirement isn't about spending your days doing the gardening, it's about freedom to do as you please with your time and I've always thought that I will always do work of some kind.

Good choices that I made early on are now giving their rewards, being debt free removes a lot of stress and makes life more enjoyable. It gave me the freedom to take a lower paid job with less hours and flexible working which gives me more family time, a real priority for me while the kids are young.

And likewise, each to their own - if some want to be in debt and spend their money on whatever then that's fine. In some ways we benefit from others being that way (there are of course many downsides!), I would rather they are paying extra tax/VAT to the government. Just don't come crying for handouts when it goes wrong - and it will, both go wrong and they will come crying for handouts.

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25 minutes ago, null; said:

Retire at 50 was always my goal. While that's now not going to happen, I'm happy to continue with the work I do now, especially as for me retirement isn't about spending your days doing the gardening, it's about freedom to do as you please with your time and I've always thought that I will always do work of some kind.

Good choices that I made early on are now giving their rewards, being debt free removes a lot of stress and makes life more enjoyable. It gave me the freedom to take a lower paid job with less hours and flexible working which gives me more family time, a real priority for me while the kids are young.

And likewise, each to their own - if some want to be in debt and spend their money on whatever then that's fine. In some ways we benefit from others being that way (there are of course many downsides!), I would rather they are paying extra tax/VAT to the government. Just don't come crying for handouts when it goes wrong - and it will, both go wrong and they will come crying for handouts.

This is the life I envisage. I can't imagine not working or running a business, albeit perhaps part-time. It's in my blood, my parents ran a business whilst we were growing up and they both did 100+ hours a week during their busy summer season. The presbyterian-inspired guilt I feel for just sitting around, reading books and enjoying my hobbies is unreal. I also feel guilt if I'm not in 'cashflow positive' mode, even slightly. If I'm spending my (now fairly considerable) savings, I feel terribly guilty.

We really enjoy travelling, so I'd like to be able to afford a nice holiday at least once a year, whether that's to somewhere further afield or just a European road trip, I'd be happy to work full-time for a few months of the year in order to pay for such, even in semi-retirement.

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50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.

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13 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Absolutely. I'm the same, lots of folk would call me 'pessimistic' but I can do the arithmetic, and think of myself as a realist.

I've found myself in some fairly extreme circumstances (some life-threatening or career / financially ruining), and rather than panic, I'm always amazed at how calm I am when the shit hits the fan, I kind of just follow a bunch of steps that seem like the most logical thing to do under the circumstances. It's probably when I'm most calm, after something's gone terribly wrong.

The anticipation of what's coming has sent my anxiety levels through the roof, but I know when the crash comes I and my family will be better placed than most, and we will have the flexibility to make the decisions we need to in order to survive (and hopefully thrive).

At the moment, just trying to position ourselves so we are as healthy and strong as can be (mentally and physically) for what's to come, both as individuals and as a couple. My missus doesn't really understand any of this stuff, but she does trust me and is kind of just going with the flow and letting me do what I think is best - no pressure then!

Mrs P doesn't much either but like your set up,on financial matters,I generally decide.We rent,much to the bemusement of many of our middle class friends who appear to be genuinely unable to grasp that there is an investment thesis that doesn't involve buying a house and waiting for the appreciation.

We're looking to build a portfolio of assets with cash yields that cover wherever we want to rent and allow us to retire early if we want to..We're already well en route,and I'd much rather that so we can move with work if we need to,than be stuck in an overpriced hosue.I have many middle aged friends who have jsut levered up as they age.I've only got one or two who've stayed put and cleared the mortgage.

First sign of 20% down in hosuing and a lot of people's paper wealth will dissappear I fear.

We grew up in austere circumstances of sorts when I was a kid and that fear of being penniless/skint follows me.

 

13 hours ago, white110 said:

This Bloomberg piece reminded me of a Nordic drama that BBC4 put on, "Follow the Money".

I disagree with the NASDAQ opinion on Black Swan, a quick whip round and we will say no more on the matter.

Carbon Credits and spreads on Energy Markets, they sure are going to miss his tax contribution.

 

 

It's amazing that they allow people to trade on margin like that and then skin the other players for the losses.

53 minutes ago, harp said:

50 seems the ideal age to retire, if you can. That's what was in my mind when in my 30's. I actually retired at 41, well I say retired like it was a choice, it wasn't. I got blown up in Iraq while working for a Private Military Company. The guy next to me died and my two clients in the back of our armoured  Landcruiser were badly injured as was I. After receiving a settlement, I didn't expect that it would bring a whole new set of problems. Keeping hold of it and growing that sum has been a challenge. But I have done so, for now.
No debt and plenty of time to do whatever I want is a great place to be at. Would I turn the clock back? No.

Sorry to hear about your injury harp.

I think the bit in bold is particualrly pertinent.

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Like @sancho panza says being skint is my biggest fear.Iv had cancer,relationship breakups ,redundancy you name it and faced all those down easily,skint is far worse.When i was 12 to 14 id say where i lived in the north suffered an economic depression maybe as bad as the Great Depression.In my town and most northern towns nearly ALL the jobs went as they closed almost all our industry.I can remember seeing a guy leaning against the wall in our back alley.He was one of the toughest blokes i knew.He would put on the floor half a dozen fellas without blinking.Lovely bloke though and always stuck an embassy cigarette behind my ear if i was sat on the back step as they walked home from the factory.This day it was raining and i could hear him crying like a baby.I never went out the gate,he didnt know i was there.He pulled himself together and walked off.The reason he was crying was because he hadnt been able to get any work and couldnt take a wage home to his wife .Seems he used to walk the alleys as if he was walking from work that was now just an empty site.Industry closing broke him and almost everyone else.I used to see him simply walking his dog around the park.One night i saw his wife snogging another bloke behind a tree.She wasnt like that,a lovely woman and they stayed married until he died,but i guess she needed an escape too.That was a lesson il never forget.The government lie to you,the elite will screw you over in a blink.You have to protect yourself as best you can.Question everything you are told.Understand capital.I fear a new generation are about to be that bloke,and they might get it even worse as they are so used to getting more.

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Aye once bitten.

Speaking to middle class friends these days though I feel like an oddball because they just stare and have absolutely no reply when you ask them how does a 20-something earn, rent and save enough these days for a house deposit. And pay their student debt. And move when their landlord wants.

They know all about how house prices are doing in their area. Nice up at the top of their Ponzis.

The young slaves at the bottom of the Ponzi don't come into it.

They will.

 

 

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Just catching up on this thread... and must say some emotional heartfelt posts here, nothing to add but just to say what a GREAT bunch we have on this FORUM!

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UnconventionalWisdom
22 minutes ago, Thorn said:

 

They know all about how house prices are doing in their area. Nice up at the top of their Ponzis.

The young slaves at the bottom of the Ponzi don't come into it.

I tell them that they stand to suffer if they don't consider the young. I live in the SE and state that there will be mass emigration out if the area if things don't change. No high quality teachers for their kids, no doctors, no nurses, noone working in shops. I work in a tech SME and enjoy the area (Kent) and access to London. But if things continue over the next few years I'll bugger off above Watford gap somewhere or abroad. I can't see how younger staff will come in when the company can only offer the ability to pay a landlord's mortgage. 

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43 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like @sancho panza says being skint is my biggest fear.Iv had cancer,relationship breakups ,redundancy you name it and faced all those down easily,skint is far worse.

I don't believe it!

If being skint was your biggest fear you wouldn't have been working part time for so long and only half considering the job offer you mentioned this week. You would be in all out accumulate mode not quality of life mode.

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UnconventionalWisdom
45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I fear a new generation are about to be that bloke,and they might get it even worse as they are so used to getting more.

I'm early 30s and have well-educated mates who are still sharing a house in their 30s. I knew a surgeon who was sharing into his 30s (I think he is now living with his misses). I cant understand why they accept it and aren't angry. I keep on telling them about the monetary policy that the gov and BOE pursue are the issue...but they don't seem to be interested. I really fear that TPTB are pushing to see where people's breaking point is and will push until that's been reached. 

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9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't believe it!

If being skint was your biggest fear you wouldn't have been working part time for so long and only half considering the job offer you mentioned this week. You would be in all out accumulate mode not quality of life mode.

It does colour your thinking. I grew up in financial poverty although most other things in my childhood were really good. All my life I have been frugal/saving and even though I am now relatively well off in comparison I still have to stop myself thinking no I can't justify spending money on that (something I actually need or want.) 

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