Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've just done this. I have a 10 year fix at 2.53%, which is below current inflation, never mind what's coming. I can overpay if I want, but I'll see how it does. I suspect inflation will destroy the mortgage within my fix term (I passed up the chance at a lower rate for 5 years to hugely increase the chances of this) and if not I'll just pay off the balance with the 500oz silver I have stashed. I'm well aware of prices already dropping, and whats coming, but frankly it feels like I already have no debt burden as my accommodation costs, which everyone has, are now fixed at a low rate, with a very good chance of it being owned outright in 10 years.

I sleep like a baby. Have I gone "full contrarian"?!

Hey Cattle Prod, I've been looking at buying some silver .... I'm such a novice ... how the hell do I know which company to use ? Is now a good time to buy ? I try to look at the charts of prices etc but its like a foreign language to me and I wouldn't know a scam from a legitimate company  !!! do you literally have it stashed or do they hold it for you and which companies are proven safe ? Many thanks for any insight you can offer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Its a 10 year purchase for me, so it's irrelevant if it's 14.30 or 16.80. Average in, and don't worry about it. I usually use Apmex, or I used a german dealer last time, I cant remember the name. Ill try and find it. I have some stashed and some in ETF. I like the physical coins, the the premium ballooned last time silver ran up

Thanks so much Cattle Prod, when you stashed do you mean under the mattress ha !! or do you pay them to store it for you ?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

Hey Cattle Prod, I've been looking at buying some silver .... I'm such a novice ... how the hell do I know which company to use ? Is now a good time to buy ? I try to look at the charts of prices etc but its like a foreign language to me and I wouldn't know a scam from a legitimate company  !!! do you literally have it stashed or do they hold it for you and which companies are proven safe ? Many thanks for any insight you can offer.

The big thing (at least vs physical gold) is that actual silver in your hands is VATable.  There's complicated stuff employed by some dealers about the margin scheme (which can reduce the VAT paid to something like 5-7%, depending on which EU countries have been involved), but there's always VAT in there somewhere.  You can hold the silver in vault somewhere in the world, but then you've not actually got silver, but 'a call on silver', which may be acceptable to some people.

I buy physical gold (which is always zero VAT for  coins and bars), but only electronic silver as I can't be bothered with the VAT side.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, Thorn said:

https://news.sky.com/story/line-18-uks-housing-crisis-wont-be-solved-by-building-more-homes-11503447

Wonder what they have planned when they release stories like this...interesting change of tack from the MSM. 

Nice to see.That starts to explain the real picture.They mention Redcar in the least demand.Nice 3 bed semis/2 bed bungalow's can be easily had around £130k.Probate's coming on and lack of demand from young people who move away or are on benefits.The coming cycle will see much more investment in industry in these sorts of places.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, Thorn said:

https://news.sky.com/story/line-18-uks-housing-crisis-wont-be-solved-by-building-more-homes-11503447

Wonder what they have planned when they release stories like this...interesting change of tack from the MSM. 

Get the occasion al story like this all the time. Until monetary and fiscal policy change dramatically all one can presume is theyll be doing all they can to keep the bubble inflated.

We do have a landlord come building in total charge if the purse strings.

Thing that annoys me with that article its as if no one has ever thought the housing shortage tale is nonsense.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.They mention Redcar in the least demand.Nice 3 bed semis/2 bed bungalow's can be easily had around £130k.

Still a lot for a town where the main employer closed a couple of yeara ago with local wages probably closer to 20k.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

56 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Its a 10 year purchase for me, so it's irrelevant if it's 14.30 or 16.80. Average in, and don't worry about it. I usually use Apmex, or I used a german dealer last time, I cant remember the name. Ill try and find it. I have some stashed and some in ETF. I like the physical coins, the the premium ballooned last time silver ran up

I like physical coins as well and get them from here VAT free.(maybe not much longer when we are out of the EU)

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-2018/

Im going to get myself some of these as well.Love them.

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/krugerrand/1-oz-krugerrand-silver-coin-2018/

Like you say the premium on them will probably shoot up in a silver bull.£14 each for Britannia's at the moment.I reckon £150 each at some point in the next silver bull.Very happy to buy at that price and if they hit £8 even happier to buy.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Banned said:

Still a lot for a town where the main employer closed a couple of yeara ago with local wages probably closer to 20k.

 

Yes agreed.Id expect to be looking at around £80k for those £130k ones as you say wages will be around £20k.It shows the difference though around the country.The prices are very similar near me,same as 2004 prices.Some poor terraces are at 1995 prices.I actually like the northern coast towns,even the brutal ones.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I've found that the VAT doesnt really matter, as when I sell them (in the UK) people pay the + VAT price. You'd be amazed who has gold and silver stashed away. I once put an ad on gumtree for a 5oz perth mint coin. A housewife turns up, asked did I have any more, and took 30 of them off my hands. About a 10 pound premium over spot if I recall, so tge VAT was well covered.

That said I agree with bullionvault etc and avoiding giving some to HMRC. I just like to have a little on hand.

Do you sell them on gumtree much?.Iv given a few to children as gifts and people always love them.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes agreed.Id expect to be looking at around £80k for those £130k ones as you say wages will be around £20k.It shows the difference though around the country.The prices are very similar near me,same as 2004 prices.Some poor terraces are at 1995 prices.I actually like the northern coast towns,even the brutal ones.

I bought a blue car from Redcar about 5 years ago. Got there early so hung around town ... Within 2 hours on a Friday afternoon i  witnessed 2 separate fights the 2nd being a couple of 50/60 year olds coming outside a pub.

Think Redcar wins the prize for brutalness. 

Id imagine those terraces need vast sums spent on them. Any other civilised country would see them knocked down.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Banned said:

I bought a car from Redcar about 5 years ago. Got there early so hung around town ... Within 2 hours on a Friday afternoon i  witnessed 2 separate fights the 2nd being a couple of 50/60 year olds coming outside a pub.

Think Redcar wins the prize for brutalness. 

Id imagine those terraces need vast sums spent on them. Any other civilised country would see them knocked down.

I bought a car from Redcar about 5 years ago. Got there early so hung around town ... Within 2 hours on a Friday afternoon i  witnessed 2 separate fights the 2nd being a couple of 50/60 year olds coming outside a pub.

Think Redcar wins the prize for brutalness. 

Id imagine those terraces need vast sums spent on them. Any other civilised country would see them knocked down.

I had a tryst with a girl in the sand dunes at Redcar (met her in Boro).When i got home i was covered in a fine grey dust that took a long shower to remove.Not sure if it was from the steel works smoke or from the nuclear power station yon side of the river.Laying in those dunes with all the lights on the steel works and chemical plants reminded my of Blade Runner O.o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
40 minutes ago, dgul said:

The big thing (at least vs physical gold) is that actual silver in your hands is VATable.  There's complicated stuff employed by some dealers about the margin scheme (which can reduce the VAT paid to something like 5-7%, depending on which EU countries have been involved), but there's always VAT in there somewhere.  You can hold the silver in vault somewhere in the world, but then you've not actually got silver, but 'a call on silver', which may be acceptable to some people.

I buy physical gold (which is always zero VAT for  coins and bars), but only electronic silver as I can't be bothered with the VAT side.  

Surely this is NOT the case with BullionVault ? ...OR am I missing something?

From BullionVault:

"You own your bullion outright. It’s your legal property. We only deal in allocated gold, silver and platinum – never unallocated."
"BullionVault is the only bullion business that publishes a daily audit online, which explicitly reconciles your gold, silver and platinum to formal third-party Bar Lists."

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Surely this is NOT the case with BullionVault ? ...OR am I missing something?

From BullionVault:

"You own your bullion outright. It’s your legal property. We only deal in allocated gold, silver and platinum – never unallocated."
"BullionVault is the only bullion business that publishes a daily audit online, which explicitly reconciles your gold, silver and platinum to formal third-party Bar Lists."

Well, possibly.  I guess you'd find out if they went bankrupt.

[I'd happy to own physical with Bullionvault].

However, there is a gotcha even with this -- if you take delivery then you have to pay the VAT at that point (or, at least, at the point where you import it back to the UK).  I suppose if you're entirely offshore (or can be) then it's a moot point, but in that case you wouldn't be worrying about VAT anyway.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sleepwello'nights
On ‎18‎/‎09‎/‎2018 at 21:53, dgul said:

I don't think it will work this way.  Everyone will be worse off, albeit by different relative amounts.

And a lot better for working people! The naivety. Except for all those who lose their jobs. We all think we're immune until we find out we're not. Every recession results in large numbers of the working population losing their jobs.  Even the contractors whoring themselves out to the highest bidder find themselves sitting on their backsides. In fact they are one of the groups most at risk.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As per the second part of the thread.A reflation cycle ahead.The needle is slowly moving.The only difference is i expect government will be investing a lot rather than just being a backstop with 0.1% 50 year gilts funded by BOE QE.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/comment/article-6194817/ALEX-BRUMMER-Britains-need-reboot-Chequers-Brexit-plan-rejected.html

Clean energy,telco,transport and id add military to that as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

No I just did that once, it was the last of my 2008-2011 stash. 

I've given coins especially for christening gifts (better than a plated photo frame) and tge parents are always amazed at holding a solid silver coin. The weight, the colour, the fine detail in the design. For less cost than the crappy photo frame! I can the cogs in their brain slowly turn...

Exactly what i do,always give a silver coin as christening/birth gift.People are always wow pure silver? its so heavy/beautiful etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
6 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, possibly.  I guess you'd find out if they went bankrupt.

[I'd happy to own physical with Bullionvault].

However, there is a gotcha even with this -- if you take delivery then you have to pay the VAT at that point (or, at least, at the point where you import it back to the UK).  I suppose if you're entirely offshore (or can be) then it's a moot point, but in that case you wouldn't be worrying about VAT anyway.

ALL my silver with BV is stored in singapore...

I can bear when the price of silver goes down after i bought, BUT...

What pisses me of most is the storage fees, its a double whammy especially when the price of silver keeps going DOWN!:Old:

I have £2K left in BV, maybe i'll withdraw the moolah AND buy a 5 KG silver bar and use it as a DOOR STOP!xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
21 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

And a lot better for working people! The naivety. Except for all those who lose their jobs. We all think we're immune until we find out we're not. Every recession results in large numbers of the working population losing their jobs.  Even the contractors whoring themselves out to the highest bidder find themselves sitting on their backsides. In fact they are one of the groups most at risk.

 

NO one here has seen/been through a REAL recession unless they were at working age during 1990 to 1993 ...near on thirty yeras ago!

The last few recessions in the UK have been tea-parties in comparison!

As DB says, when this BIG one HITS, people are going to be SHOCKED to the core!:o

BRING IT ON BABY:Old:

EDIT: Aslo MEGA recession: 1980 - 1983 (when i started work)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Thorn said:

https://news.sky.com/story/line-18-uks-housing-crisis-wont-be-solved-by-building-more-homes-11503447

Wonder what they have planned when they release stories like this...interesting change of tack from the MSM. 

i saw that yesterday, was going to post but i forgot, yes, i was surprised to read it and at least goes into greater depth than the other msm ever do, even the vi's.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

sleepwello'nights
1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

NO one here has seen/been through a REAL recession unless they were at working age during 1990 to 1993 ...near on thirty yeras ago!

The last few recessions in the UK have been tea-parties in comparison!

 

Strangely enough I never seemed to suffer in the recessions we had. In the 1990 to 1993 recession I worked in subsidiaries of a couple of organisations that were slimming their operations down. I'm always amazed at how convoluted some finance departments make their processes. When the organisation wants to sell something off they have to sort out the accounts ready for due diligence.

I was fairly middle level so often had to dig down into the nitty gritty to get the accounts to reflect reality. Something the qualified auditors working for one or other of the big 6 at the time never seemed to grasp. Of course as a "temp" I was paid by the hours I attended, and most of the time stuff had to be completed to meet deadlines. 

What I vividly remember was the number of employees around the 50 year old mark being made redundant. It really struck me that these people, often in senior positions, had worked really hard to get where they were and then were left high and dry. From then on I realised my primary responsibility was to myself and despite working conscientiously I wouldn't be reliant on an employer. Their priorities were different to their employees, understandably, but it meant that in the final analysis the organisations survival outweighed their loyalty to their employees.  

The workplace changed so much, flexible employment insecure lives.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, dgul said:

The big thing (at least vs physical gold) is that actual silver in your hands is VATable.  There's complicated stuff employed by some dealers about the margin scheme (which can reduce the VAT paid to something like 5-7%, depending on which EU countries have been involved), but there's always VAT in there somewhere.  You can hold the silver in vault somewhere in the world, but then you've not actually got silver, but 'a call on silver', which may be acceptable to some people.

I buy physical gold (which is always zero VAT for  coins and bars), but only electronic silver as I can't be bothered with the VAT side.  

thanks dgul, didn't know about that 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I like physical coins as well and get them from here VAT free.(maybe not much longer when we are out of the EU)

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/britannia/1-oz-britannia-silver-2018/

Im going to get myself some of these as well.Love them.

https://www.coininvest.com/en/silver-coins/krugerrand/1-oz-krugerrand-silver-coin-2018/

Like you say the premium on them will probably shoot up in a silver bull.£14 each for Britannia's at the moment.I reckon £150 each at some point in the next silver bull.Very happy to buy at that price and if they hit £8 even happier to buy.

 

Thanks DurhamBorn, do you literally just keep them at home or do you have a vault somewhere ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

NO one here has seen/been through a REAL recession unless they were at working age during 1990 to 1993 ...near on thirty yeras ago!

The last few recessions in the UK have been tea-parties in comparison!

As DB says, when this BIG one HITS, people are going to be SHOCKED to the core!:o

BRING IT ON BABY:Old:

EDIT: Aslo MEGA recession: 1980 - 1983 (when i started work)

I like the way that recession is highlighted as it hit the south. What about in the years running up to it in Northern England when the pits and shipyards were closing and entire areas were effectively having a depression.

I lived through both in each area and what happened in NE England was much worse than the insanely overpriced houses falling in value in the south.

I left school and started work in 1991 in the south and there was still plenty of work about. 

Buy i do agree with the jist of what youre getting at.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...