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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, BadAlchemy said:

I recently discovered the same with some sealed tubes I bought years ago. Never opened or touched them. Any new tubes I buy now I am putting in a ziplock placcy bag together with one of those little silica gel bag things. Then I am putting all that inside another ziplock bag. No idea if it will work but seems worth a try.

Apparently you can remove tarnish by puuting the coins in hot water with some tin foil and baking powder. I havent tried it and maybe its not worth the bother. Tarnish doesnt affect the weight or value AFAIK.

I use baking powder and also olive oil when cleaning my coins from metal detecting.Thats sorts out a 2000 year old roman coin xD 

 

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re Bullionvault, anybody used them for Gold in a SIPP?

https://www.bullionvault.com/info/gold-sipp-pension-plan#

 

I havent but i have meant to really look into it a few times.Buying with 20% (or 40%) off at these prices seems a fantastic idea.

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12 hours ago, Sound Money said:

I bought gold and silver back in 2005, still stored on bullionvault. Unfortunately, I’ve since moved to the states and discovered that when I sell it I won’t pay regular capital gains, but “collectibles” capital gains at a higher rate... :(

why not gift them to a non-US person you trust?  

 

Then they can sell them without your knowledge

 

Then in a year when your income is low they can gift you a lump sum for being a good mate

 

B|

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19 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Strangely enough I never seemed to suffer in the recessions we had. In the 1990 to 1993 recession I worked in subsidiaries of a couple of organisations that were slimming their operations down. I'm always amazed at how convoluted some finance departments make their processes. When the organisation wants to sell something off they have to sort out the accounts ready for due diligence.

I was fairly middle level so often had to dig down into the nitty gritty to get the accounts to reflect reality. Something the qualified auditors working for one or other of the big 6 at the time never seemed to grasp. Of course as a "temp" I was paid by the hours I attended, and most of the time stuff had to be completed to meet deadlines. 

What I vividly remember was the number of employees around the 50 year old mark being made redundant. It really struck me that these people, often in senior positions, had worked really hard to get where they were and then were left high and dry. From then on I realised my primary responsibility was to myself and despite working conscientiously I wouldn't be reliant on an employer. Their priorities were different to their employees, understandably, but it meant that in the final analysis the organisations survival outweighed their loyalty to their employees.  

The workplace changed so much, flexible employment insecure lives.

This was a step change in Japan, where the `job for life,` /paternalistic employer/eemployee relationship was challenged twenty years ago...it really had a societal impact.

As for YRS mention of previously experienced recessions, I think the one we have coming none of us would have experienced the like of iregardless of our age, it's just a matter of whether they will be able to kick the can down the road a little longer this time or whether they have run out of options.

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5 hours ago, wherebee said:

why not gift them to a non-US person you trust?  

 

Then they can sell them without your knowledge

 

Then in a year when your income is low they can gift you a lump sum for being a good mate

 

B|

Its like a family trust.Trusts pay 45% tax on income.If the income is handed out the person can claim the tax back on his normal rate.So a none tax payer can claim back the full amount up to their allowance.A 40% tax payer can only claim 5% back.Someone on means tested benefits would lose them etc.So the best thing to do is for the trust to make payments to the person who can claim the most/all the tax back.If that person happens to then post it/some of it through someone else's letter box well who knew.Works very well for smallish trusts where  "family members" are the beneficiaries .Of course is someone is on benefits you make the payments to them out of capital below £3000 a time.

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sleepwello'nights
1 minute ago, MrXxx said:

As for YRS mention of previously experienced recessions, I think the one we have coming none of us would have experienced the like of iregardless of our age, it's just a matter of whether they will be able to kick the can down the road a little longer this time or whether they have run out of options.

Do you think the UK will ever experience the breakdown of the economy to the extent of Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe? Our economy became a basket case between McMillan's "we've never had so good" and Edward Heath's "who runs the country".

Society never broke down, there was always food in the shops, life went on without too much hardship for most. In my lifetime I've never gone hungry, never been without somewhere to live, have always had access to healthcare. Doesn't that apply to most, if not all of us. 

I sometimes daydream about SciFi scenarios where there is societal breakdown. Thankfully they've never come anywhere close to occurring and I can have a good laugh reading the TFH topics on what we need to stock up with in the case of an emergency.  

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20 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Strangely enough I never seemed to suffer in the recessions we had. In the 1990 to 1993 recession I worked in subsidiaries of a couple of organisations that were slimming their operations down. I'm always amazed at how convoluted some finance departments make their processes. When the organisation wants to sell something off they have to sort out the accounts ready for due diligence.

I was fairly middle level so often had to dig down into the nitty gritty to get the accounts to reflect reality. Something the qualified auditors working for one or other of the big 6 at the time never seemed to grasp. Of course as a "temp" I was paid by the hours I attended, and most of the time stuff had to be completed to meet deadlines. 

What I vividly remember was the number of employees around the 50 year old mark being made redundant. It really struck me that these people, often in senior positions, had worked really hard to get where they were and then were left high and dry. From then on I realised my primary responsibility was to myself and despite working conscientiously I wouldn't be reliant on an employer. Their priorities were different to their employees, understandably, but it meant that in the final analysis the organisations survival outweighed their loyalty to their employees.  

The workplace changed so much, flexible employment insecure lives.

Yes thats very true about people around 50.I noticed it as well,and was lucky enough to be warned about it back then by some very shrewd guys i worked with.It was one of the reasons i decided i had to get myself into as good a position as possible by late 40s.The problem is worse because of age discrimination and the fact a lot of the jobs these days are more suited to younger people.You can still get jobs of course,but its easier if you dont need a big salary.Iv got many friends late 40s working for good companies on decent money,but zero savings and still mortgages (not southern size mortgages,im talking £40 to £80k).They are taking huge risks.Iv also got friends on the tax credit train who will really struggle once the kids are 18 (and they are about 52-57).Zero savings,mostly zero equity and zero job experience for 18 years outside of part time stuff.15 years from tax credits ending to state pension age will seem a very very long time for them.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes thats very true about people around 50.I noticed it as well,and was lucky enough to be warned about it back then by some very shrewd guys i worked with.It was one of the reasons i decided i had to get myself into as good a position as possible by late 40s.The problem is worse because of age discrimination and the fact a lot of the jobs these days are more suited to younger people.You can still get jobs of course,but its easier if you dont need a big salary.Iv got many friends late 40s working for good companies on decent money,but zero savings and still mortgages (not southern size mortgages,im talking £40 to £80k).They are taking huge risks.Iv also got friends on the tax credit train who will really struggle once the kids are 18 (and they are about 52-57).Zero savings,mostly zero equity and zero job experience for 18 years outside of part time stuff.

This is me.  One side or another of the 50 mark, and seeing really good people being sacked to help hit arbitrary targets set by finance people who have no conception of the medium and long term risks to the business being created.

That's why my goal is to engineer my departure soonish, when I want and to suit MY plans.  The employer will be pretty fucked, I think, but based on how they have treated others I could not give a fuck.  I've checked my contract and it is no notice on either side.  Notice on a Friday from me, I think.  Stick that in your pipe and eat it.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes thats very true about people around 50.I noticed it as well,and was lucky enough to be warned about it back then by some very shrewd guys i worked with.It was one of the reasons i decided i had to get myself into as good a position as possible by late 40s.The problem is worse because of age discrimination and the fact a lot of the jobs these days are more suited to younger people.You can still get jobs of course,but its easier if you dont need a big salary.Iv got many friends late 40s working for good companies on decent money,but zero savings and still mortgages (not southern size mortgages,im talking £40 to £80k).They are taking huge risks.Iv also got friends on the tax credit train who will really struggle once the kids are 18 (and they are about 52-57).Zero savings,mostly zero equity and zero job experience for 18 years outside of part time stuff.15 years from tax credits ending to state pension age will seem a very very long time for them.

This seems to be a big part of the problem. Just because you earn 100k doesn't mean you have to have a 450k mortgage and run the balance down to 0 every month. Recognise it as good times and trouser a good portion fgs. People in their 40/50's really should know better, it leaves them in such a vulnerable position. We seem to have a massive problem with planning and investing for the future at all levels in this country.

Personally we currently have a family of 3 lifestyle that can be supported on about 25k per annum if needs be, less when we clear mortgage. Running a small business for a few years and not having the surety of income that breeds complacency in PAYE employment really focuses the mind for this. I really recommend it because PAYE employment is less secure IMO because you have even less control over it.

After 10 years, The Man has made me an offer I can't refuse so I'm heading back to him for a few days a week but I'm very much looking at it as an temporary opportunity for shore up our future, not get a Range Rover

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

This is me.  One side or another of the 50 mark, and seeing really good people being sacked to help hit arbitrary targets set by finance people who have no conception of the medium and long term risks to the business being created.

That's why my goal is to engineer my departure soonish, when I want and to suit MY plans.  The employer will be pretty fucked, I think, but based on how they have treated others I could not give a fuck.  I've checked my contract and it is no notice on either side.  Notice on a Friday from me, I think.  Stick that in your pipe and eat it.

It wasnt so bad years ago as at least you tended to have a good final salary pension that kicked in at 55.With that and the redundancy and if you hadnt gone mad all life you were ok.Zoom to now and a lot people still have decent sized MEWed mortgages,other debts,crap pensions at best and a pension age that is moving more and more away.

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2 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Do you think the UK will ever experience the breakdown of the economy to the extent of Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe? Our economy became a basket case between McMillan's "we've never had so good" and Edward Heath's "who runs the country".

Society never broke down, there was always food in the shops, life went on without too much hardship for most. In my lifetime I've never gone hungry, never been without somewhere to live, have always had access to healthcare. Doesn't that apply to most, if not all of us. 

I sometimes daydream about SciFi scenarios where there is societal breakdown. Thankfully they've never come anywhere close to occurring and I can have a good laugh reading the TFH topics on what we need to stock up with in the case of an emergency.  

I understand your concern over this sort of societal breakdown, but I don't think it's worth worrying too much about. Not because it won't happen, necessarily, but because if it does happen, there's virtually no way to know how the government, economy and populace might react exactly, and so for that reason, it's almost impossible to 'prep' for. We'll all be equally fucked.

It's like worrying about a meteor hitting the earth - nothing we can do it about it, ergo...

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Talking Monkey
7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

It wasnt so bad years ago as at least you tended to have a good final salary pension that kicked in at 55.With that and the redundancy and if you hadnt gone mad all life you were ok.Zoom to now and a lot people still have decent sized MEWed mortgages,other debts,crap pensions at best and a pension age that is moving more and more away.

With no final salary pensions for a lot of 30-45 year olds there is a lot of pain ahead, people just save into a contributions based pension and assume it equates to the kind of pension their parents received. Some of these people have no idea what their retirement is going to be like. Also a lot of folk who are hitting peak earnings in their late 30s early 40s think they will be earning this money for the next 20 odd years, they've no idea that they'll be very likely on the scrap heap round about 50

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

I understand your concern over this sort of societal breakdown, but I don't think it's worth worrying too much about. Not because it won't happen, necessarily, but because if it does happen, there's virtually no way to know how the government, economy and populace might react exactly, and so for that reason, it's almost impossible to 'prep' for. We'll all be equally fucked.

It's like worrying about a meteor hitting the earth - nothing we can do it about it, ergo...

Good point that, say one did prep and had some food stashed and say some silver coins that would only get you so far, a few months down the line, none of us here are like those silicon valley types with the bunkers with years of foof etc, we're all part of the general population and we'd more or less equally screwed if there is a total breakdown like venezuala or zimbabwe

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3 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Do you think the UK will ever experience the breakdown of the economy to the extent of Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe? Our economy became a basket case between McMillan's "we've never had so good" and Edward Heath's "who runs the country".

Society never broke down, there was always food in the shops, life went on without too much hardship for most. In my lifetime I've never gone hungry, never been without somewhere to live, have always had access to healthcare. Doesn't that apply to most, if not all of us. 

I sometimes daydream about SciFi scenarios where there is societal breakdown. Thankfully they've never come anywhere close to occurring and I can have a good laugh reading the TFH topics on what we need to stock up with in the case of an emergency.  

No, as we have a developed democracy where the TPTB will just temporarily give up a little of their gains to keep the cash cow (that is the populus) alive.

I do believe that we have the potential to become the poor man of Europe though...why?...well, we have sold off the silver gained by previous generations/Empire, and we now have an economy based primarily around a single, narrow base (finance/service), that is easily relicate and has the potential to be easily relocated over a very short period of time.

As for societal breakdown, I remember the riots (North and London) in the 80s, and this was quickly put down by the use of force; why do you think all `democracies` spend so much on policing, defence and prisons?!..added to this, Thatcherism broke down a sense of community spirit in our society and replaced it with a `look after No1` as a means of control, I can't see our political elite being in a rush to (,or allowed to) reverse this whatever colour of their politics.

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1 minute ago, MrXxx said:

No, as we have a developed democracy where the TPTB will just temporarily give up a little of their gains to keep the cash cow (that is the populus) alive.

I do believe that we have the potential to become the poor man of Europe though...why?...well, we have sold off the silver gained by previous generations/Empire, and we now have an economy based primarily around a single, narrow base (finance/service), that is easily relicate and has the potential to be easily relocated over a very short period of time.

As for societal breakdown, I remember the riots (North and London) in the 80s, and this was quickly put down by the use of force; why do you think all `democracies` spend so much on policing, defence and prisons?!..added to this, Thatcherism broke down a sense of community spirit in our society and replaced it with a `look after No1` as a means of control, I can't see our political elite being in a rush to (,or allowed to) reverse this whatever colour of their politics.

Sadly, I totally agree, especially the bits in bold.

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13 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

With no final salary pensions for a lot of 30-45 year olds there is a lot of pain ahead, people just save into a contributions based pension and assume it equates to the kind of pension their parents received. Some of these people have no idea what their retirement is going to be like. Also a lot of folk who are hitting peak earnings in their late 30s early 40s think they will be earning this money for the next 20 odd years, they've no idea that they'll be very likely on the scrap heap round about 50

I work with a lot of (academically I.e. PhD`s) well educated people who are completely clueless about their pensions provision either through ignorance or indifference...this is why they are currently being screwed over by a gradual, steath approach that is eroding their benefits. They appear to have the attitude that their pension is a bonus to their salary/contract rather than forming part of it...when I challenge them and ask if they would be so accommodating if their employer said "Sorry, you are getting paid £10k from now on instead of £20k", they think I have lost the plot!

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Talking Monkey
9 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I work with a lot of (academically I.e. PhD`s) well educated people who are completely clueless about their pensions provision either through ignorance or indifference...this is why they are currently being screwed over by a gradual, steath approach that is eroding their benefits. They appear to have the attitude that their pension is a bonus to their salary/contract rather than forming part of it...when I challenge them and ask if they would be so accommodating if their employer said "Sorry, you are getting paid £10k from now on instead of £20k", they think I have lost the plot!

15 years from now there will be huge swathes of people retiring and finding the future for them is poverty, they've no idea at all. Interesting to see that a lot of very well educated people fall into this category

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23 hours ago, Sound Money said:

I bought gold and silver back in 2005, still stored on bullionvault. Unfortunately, I’ve since moved to the states and discovered that when I sell it I won’t pay regular capital gains, but “collectibles” capital gains at a higher rate... :(

I'll presume that you can't offshore yourself for a bit.  Sell it now.  You've got a gain, but the presumption is you should take the hit now, rather than (the hopefully larger gain) in the future.  There isn't any point in looking forward to prices lowering so that you'll have a lower CGT.  [theoretically, If you've got a loss, offset against current 'other taxes' (there's some limit to this, but can be useful), and store the rest as capital losses taken forwards for future years].  Buy gold ETF with the proceeds, which will be taxed as normal gains of a financial asset, not fancy collectables GCT (hold for > 1 year so that you get the 'long term gains' benefits).

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40 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'll presume that you can't offshore yourself for a bit.  Sell it now.  You've got a gain, but the presumption is you should take the hit now, rather than (the hopefully larger gain) in the future.  There isn't any point in looking forward to prices lowering so that you'll have a lower CGT.  [theoretically, If you've got a loss, offset against current 'other taxes' (there's some limit to this, but can be useful), and store the rest as capital losses taken forwards for future years].  Buy gold ETF with the proceeds, which will be taxed as normal gains of a financial asset, not fancy collectables GCT (hold for > 1 year so that you get the 'long term gains' benefits).

That’s a good idea, thanks. I didn’t think about switching to ETFs for that purpose. I was kind of thinking of just holding onto it in case we ever move back to the uk. But that’s looking less likely.

For the previous suggestion about gifting it, it’s unfortunately not possible within bullionvault.

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2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

15 years from now there will be huge swathes of people retiring and finding the future for them is poverty, they've no idea at all. Interesting to see that a lot of very well educated people fall into this category

Yes and its not just the income its the lifestyle.Somebody used to spending £250 a week can adjust to £200 a week.Someone used to £600 a week down to £200 will really struggle.Chances are they also have bigger houses,so bigger council tax,other debts,used to new cars etc.The other big problem is the pension age.A state pension of £160 a week is quite generous and if you have £140 a week from other sources and zero debt/own outright etc i see that as a good position.The problem is people have very little to get them to 68 from say 55.If people are struggling to get jobs at 50 its 18 years until state pension age.Thats a long time.

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2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

With no final salary pensions for a lot of 30-45 year olds there is a lot of pain ahead, people just save into a contributions based pension and assume it equates to the kind of pension their parents received. Some of these people have no idea what their retirement is going to be like. Also a lot of folk who are hitting peak earnings in their late 30s early 40s think they will be earning this money for the next 20 odd years, they've no idea that they'll be very likely on the scrap heap round about 50

Theres no final salary pensions for most peopld under 55 in the private sector.

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2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

15 years from now there will be huge swathes of people retiring and finding the future for them is poverty, they've no idea at all. Interesting to see that a lot of very well educated people fall into this category

No.

Its 5-10 years.

Private pensions cxme out in late 80s - pitch was save 50/m retire on ££££.

Total BS.

Weve hit peak private sector DB pensions. Youll go from peopkd on 3/4 DB for 40 yeard, to oeopke ehove been saving 50/m for 30 years.

Public sector are not seeing anymore retire early on full whack. Career average and state retirement age - 68.

 

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2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

I work with a lot of (academically I.e. PhD`s) well educated people who are completely clueless about their pensions provision either through ignorance or indifference...this is why they are currently being screwed over by a gradual, steath approach that is eroding their benefits. They appear to have the attitude that their pension is a bonus to their salary/contract rather than forming part of it...when I challenge them and ask if they would be so accommodating if their employer said "Sorry, you are getting paid £10k from now on instead of £20k", they think I have lost the plot!

Theres nothing clever or smart about Phd - you learn moree n more about less n less.

Phd have limited value outside of academia.

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4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Good point that, say one did prep and had some food stashed and say some silver coins that would only get you so far, a few months down the line, none of us here are like those silicon valley types with the bunkers with years of foof etc, we're all part of the general population and we'd more or less equally screwed if there is a total breakdown like venezuala or zimbabwe

disagree,the feral will have the advantage they are aready trained to survive on not much and they aready have their packs if things go south.the middle class dont the rich will flee.

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