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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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1 hour ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I've mentioned before about buying silver coins twice this year. Like others on here, I've given them as presents and can confirm they certainly have the wow factor with recipients.

I'm keen to get some more, so have been looking at all the varieties available. While digging into the Canadian Silver Maple Leaf, I found some info I thought I'd share. Apologies if it's already been raised, but repetition isn't a bad thing.

The Silver Maples have "four-nines" purity. Also, its face value is something to consider.

It's explained by some blurb on SilverGoldBull: "At 5 Canadian dollars, the official legal tender face value of this 1 oz coin is the highest among silver bullion coins. The coin's purity is guaranteed at 9999 pure silver, also among the highest purities which have a standard of 999."

There's been recent discussion on this thread about tarnishing. I don't know if the following info from JM Bullion will help tackle this, but here it is anyway: "As of 2018, Silver Maple Leaf Coins feature the Royal Canadian Mint’s new MINTSHIELD Technology. The goal of MINTSHIELD is to prevent “white spots” on silver bullion coinage. The application is invisible to the eye and protects the intrinsic value present in the beautiful finish of all Silver Maple Leaf bullion coins."

JM Bullion says of the 2018 coin: "The background on both sides includes radial lines for security against counterfeiting. The reverse also has a micro-laser engraved maple leaf privy that features 18 at the center of the privy, and it is only visible under magnification."

However, I thought I'd add this next paragraph from JM Bullion: "All 1 oz Maple Leaf coins from the Royal Canadian Mint now also feature Bullion DNA. This additional form of security takes that micro-engraving and encodes, scans, and records it at the mint for future authentication."

 

Funny enough with all the talk about the £14 level on coins i took myself over to coin invest and went a little mad.I got some Maples and also lots of others from them including ones with wild animals on xD.I also got some South African krugers ,some American Eagles and some Philharmonics and of course Britannias.£13.58 for the Maples .Rude not to.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
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35 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Because life is good, there is no shortage of anything, the great unwashed are off their tits on booze and drugs and no-one can see the good times coming to an end.

If everyone went 3 meals without anything to eat however...

 

Fast forward the vid to: 2:00 ...YEP a repeat is coming very SOON!:ph34r:

 

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24 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Fast forward the vid to: 2:00 ...YEP a repeat is coming very SOON!:ph34r:

 

Very apt.Interesting how Livermore failed to make it back after the GD.

I really need to read Galbraith before this kicks off.

On a separate note YRS,Mrs P got an £8 off if you spend more than £40 at tesco.She was quietly pleased when she raided them for the offers.Not the sort of result you and DB aim for but a win nonetheless.

Have to say,can't understand Tesco's line on this.Time will tell.

2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Company pensions (at least in my case) buy a lot of Bonds for safe guaranteed (!) revenue out into the future.  Problem is the govt has promised too many too much and is likely to need to print to pay all those things its promised people, especially in a recession.  Fixed income bonds will be stuffed in that scenario if inflation kicks off!

SIPPS/ISA's are more dependant on what you are invested in, I'm of the opinion that I don't need to pay someone else to lose my money!  DYOR and all that.

Solvency rules have the benefit of increasing the pool of buyers don't they.

Wolf St had a piece on who's buying UST's t'other day and it was foreigners selling,domestics buying.

Also 35 year bond bull full in the tooth.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/09/22/yield-curve-inversion-2-year-10-year-spread-recessions-long-view/

'All bull markets come to an end, even the 35-year Great Bond Bull Market.

The US Treasury 2-year yield crept up 3 basis points during the week, to 2.81% at the close on Friday, the highest since June 2008. In a month or two, as the fourth rate hike for 2018 and more rate hikes next year are getting further baked in, the 2-year yield will cross the 3% mark! Just two years ago, many soothsayers on Wall Street said this would never happen again – that the Fed, in fact, could never raise rates to this point. But here we are.

During these 35 years, yields dropped during each recession as the Fed cut rates, but then yields didn’t return to prior highs. Instead they wobbled from lower lows to lower lows. And after each recession, their peaks remained lower than their peaks before the recession.

But all bull markets come to an end, even the Great Bond Bull Market. And this dynamic of interest rates being lower after the recession than they’d been before it, in line with rates having fallen overall for 35 years, has likely fizzled, and rates overall won’t keep going lower. And those folks who expect that during the next recession, yields will fall below the low points in the past cycle will likely be disappointed.'

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Shaun Richards today-

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2018/09/25/qe-and-its-role-in-the-dollar-shortage-zombie-banks-and-productivity-woes/

' 'US dollar-denominated debt securities issued by non-US residents have been the key driver of this trend, surpassing bank loans for the first time in the second half of 2017 . The overall amount of dollar credit to the non-bank sector outside the United States has climbed from 9.5% of global GDP at end-2007 to 14% in the first quarter of 2018. Since end-2016, however, the growth in dollar credit has been flat.'

So the US Dollar has been used as a new form of carry trade as people and businesses choose to borrow in it on a grand scale. Also as global GDP has been growing the 14% is of a larger amount. But to me the big connection here is the way that this pretty much coincides with plenty of US Dollars being available because the US Federal Reserve was busy supplying them in return for its QE bond purchases. Correlation does not prove causation but the surge fits pretty well and then it ends not long after QE did. Or more precisely seems to have faded after the first interest-rate increase from the Fed.

The question to my mind going forwards is will we see a reversal in the QT or Quantitative Tightening era? The supply of US Dollars is now being reduced by it and we wait to see what the consequences are. But it is hard to avoid noting the places that seem to be as David Bowie and Queen would put it.

It’s the terror of knowing what this world is about
Watching some good friends screaming, ‘Let me out’
Pray tomorrow gets me higher
Pressure on people, people on streets

Zombie Companies and Banks

This development has been brought to you be the financial world equivalent of Hammer House of Horror. All the monetary easing has allowed companies to survive that would otherwise have folded, or to put it another way the road to what is called “creative destruction” or one of the benefits of capitalism was blocked. A major form of this was the way that banks were bailed out and some of them continue to struggle a decade later but also took us down other roads. For example the debt model of the Glazers at Manchester United looked set to collapse but was then able to refinance more cheaply in the new upside down world. Ironically it was then able to thrive at least financially as in football terms things are not what they were.

The BIS has its worries in this area too.

In this special feature, we explore the rise of zombie companies and its causes and consequences. We take an international perspective that covers 14 countries and a much longer period than previous studies.'

 

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3 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
I say I say, I say, I say...:D
 
WHY won't YOU buy second-hand cloths DB?
 
Are ya worried someone may have snuffed it those second-hand cloths?!:o
 
You can always wash them using my SECRET ...(sodium percarbonate oxygen bleach)
 
You want to check out boot-sales you can clean up ...well I do at the boot-sale I go to, but hands-up the real reason i go there is to check-out the FOXY skimpily clad polish girls, some are just absolute babes, yes i'll admit I'm a bit of an old perv lolxD :Old:

Second hand clothing shops are the fuckling bomb.  I got a near=unworn YSL raincoat last year, price new over a thousand USD, for the equivalent of 10 bucks USD.  I'm a giant in HK which may have helped with it being left for a bargain hunter like me to find.

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12 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

You bought 500+?

That is a great buy and investment. If Durham Born Charts say £150 an ounce for silver in say 10 years, thats £75,000K  return on a £6k outlay. Between  him and his wife to be will give approx 3 years annual income tax free. A very nice and conservative lifestyle.

 

PS IF DB does marry his partner are we all invited

 

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11 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

That is a great buy and investment. If Durham Born Charts say £150 an ounce for silver in say 10 years, thats £75,000K  return on a £6k outlay. Between  him and his wife to be will give approx 3 years annual income tax free. A very nice and conservative lifestyle.

Just slightly surprised at the quantity for someone who already must have quite a stack :) Or maybe his timing was just absolutely perfect... no longer 13.58 for 500+:

 

image.png.1a7fba6157bcc2dbc2abbd27ff226f8c.png

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19 hours ago, stokiescum said:

i think in the 20/30s the yanks even made it illegal to hold bullion and it had to be handed in ,so nothings safe.i fully expect pensions to be means tested soon

I will be amazed if pensions are not means tested by the time I get there. I'm counting on getting SFA and anything that I do get will be a bonus.

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16 minutes ago, null; said:

I will be amazed if pensions are not means tested by the time I get there. I'm counting on getting SFA and anything that I do get will be a bonus.

One lesson in life I have learned, is plan for the worst hope for the best.

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19 hours ago, stokiescum said:

i think in the 20/30s the yanks even made it illegal to hold bullion and it had to be handed in ,so nothings safe.i fully expect pensions to be means tested soon

Yes, goldbugs talk about this a lot.  The gvt demanded people handed it in at a shit price for paper, and then whacked the price up afterwards.  Theft.

 

If you look at any gold forum now, a large majority of stackers make it clear that if such an order came back out today, then wouldn't turn over one flake of gold.  It's all been lost in boating accidents, see?

 

If the gvt did do that now in most countries, the real price on the black market would soar and people would just trade privately.  

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Bricks & Mortar
30 minutes ago, wherebee said:

If you look at any gold forum now, a large majority of stackers make it clear that if such an order came back out today, then wouldn't turn over one flake of gold.  It's all been lost in boating accidents, see?

Yeah, they probably wouldn't get much of the stuff under the floorboards.  Your pile at bullionvault though...  that's toast.

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1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

That is a great buy and investment. If Durham Born Charts say £150 an ounce for silver in say 10 years, thats £75,000K  return on a £6k outlay. Between  him and his wife to be will give approx 3 years annual income tax free. A very nice and conservative lifestyle.

 

PS IF DB does marry his partner are we all invited

 

It was 100 and a mix of Brits and others on top,i bought a few single coins as well as they looked nice xD .Iv actually got a bit of a wager with my lady.There is an area on the coast she would love a holiday home and they go for around £250k/£300k now.I said i think £15k of silver will buy one within 8 years.The house down to £150k the silver at least a ten bag.Problem is if that turns out right she might make me actually buy it.Great fireside story for the grand kids though,,just before the great silver bull market...........

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2 hours ago, wherebee said:

Second hand clothing shops are the fuckling bomb.  I got a near=unworn YSL raincoat last year, price new over a thousand USD, for the equivalent of 10 bucks USD.  I'm a giant in HK which may have helped with it being left for a bargain hunter like me to find.

Confirmed, my kids don't have a single piece of clothing that hasn't been scooped up at a thrift shop and the quality of those items is as high as it gets. In London you can easily find specialized clothing as well - ski jackets, waterproof trousers, merino base layers, you name it. I have two drawers full of top-notch winter running gear for under 50 quid total which would've set me back £1000+ otherwise.

 

Edit: actually, would have to confirm with my wife about the kids' undies... but I cannot recall shopping for new ones at any point!

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Bricks & Mortar
18 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Second hand clothing shops are the fuckling bomb

Some are, some aren't.  Near me, the large town where I'd go for shopping, is a former mining community that's never really recovered.  Slim pickings in the charity shops.  Lots of tat that came from Primark to begin with, and plenty of competition to pick over the offerings before you get there.
But, if I were to take a day trip, to a posh bit of Edinburgh, it's a different story.  Plenty folk there buying things to wear once, then hand in, and less folk in the half million quid houses wanting to shop there.
As a general rule, go to the most up-market place you can get to, and try the charity shops there.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Silver has been boucing around the £10.70 mark for the last week ...its just shoot UP to £11.041!

Emm...MUST be cos of DB's silver coin purchase?!;)

 

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6 hours ago, DonkeyKong said:

do not know the forum rules regarding mentioning other forums.

This is a really remarkable forum, both for threads like this, and for the owner ( @spunko ). It's not a completely free-speech area: if you post something that would get the forum owner prosecuted, or if you're a really disruptive dick, then you may well get banned.

However, within those very broad parameters, you can pretty much express any opinion you like (and be welcomed if it's unpopular but interesting) or link to any site. Spunko runs this out of his own pocket, and gets no return (other than the honourary status of hero, and actual status of dictator for life), so there are no advertisers to offend.

Exactly where the boundaries lie is a matter of debate, but a lot of people are sufficiently proud of this forum that they'll come to your defence even if you start pushing the limits (which I'm sure you won't!). Welcome - and thank you for the information!

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29 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Silver has been boucing around the £10.70 mark for the last week ...its just shoot UP to £11.041!

Emm...MUST be cos of DB's silver coin purchase?!;)

 

Does anyone think that's the bottom?

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2 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Yeah, they probably wouldn't get much of the stuff under the floorboards.  Your pile at bullionvault though...  that's toast.

But if it’s held offshore? How are they going to get it?

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6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

But if it’s held offshore? How are they going to get it?

Well, it wouldn't matter, just that it was held.  They'd prosecute to make you sell it.

But the issue is moot -- PMs were banned in the 30's because it was a form of currency that was actually held by people.  They had to force people to use FRN, so had to ban gold.

No-one uses gold now, save for a few mad people you meet on the internet.  Thus they won't ban gold as it isn't even on the radar as a problem.  If there's something that could* challenge the status of 'state sponsored money' it is crypto; it's far more likely that they'd ban that.  But in reality nearly everyone uses fiat currency for everything -- the banks have won that particular battle.

[* well, it isn't actually going to, but theoretically]

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48 minutes ago, BurntBread said:

This is a really remarkable forum, both for threads like this, and for the owner ( @spunko ). It's not a completely free-speech area: if you post something that would get the forum owner prosecuted, or if you're a really disruptive dick, then you may well get banned.

However, within those very broad parameters, you can pretty much express any opinion you like (and be welcomed if it's unpopular but interesting) or link to any site. Spunko runs this out of his own pocket, and gets no return (other than the honourary status of hero, and actual status of dictator for life), so there are no advertisers to offend.

Exactly where the boundaries lie is a matter of debate, but a lot of people are sufficiently proud of this forum that they'll come to your defence even if you start pushing the limits (which I'm sure you won't!). Welcome - and thank you for the information!

I like to think that there is a certain amount of self governance, in that if someone was to post something a bit too edgy other members would point it out to the poster, for the protection of both spunko and the members of the forum.

One thing has me a bit bemused, how has this forum managed to aquire such a collection of varied and excellent posters from all walks of life? It really is a diverse mix (in a good way) and its great to have some female posters when so many forums (other than mumsnet) are so male dominated.

I've been on many forums over the last 20 or so years, and this is by far the, Best. One. Ever.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
44 minutes ago, ILikeCake said:

Does anyone think that's the bottom?

NO idea, I bought 3 times from BV in the last couple of months and each purchase was lower lolxD

BTW, just scoffed the last of my YRS Cadbury Flake Cake, VERY NICE!

Looks like i'll be back at tescos tomorrow evening for more YRS scavenging...

IDShot_540x540.jpg

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19 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, it wouldn't matter, just that it was held.  They'd prosecute to make you sell it.

But the issue is moot -- PMs were banned in the 30's because it was a form of currency that was actually held by people.  They had to force people to use FRN, so had to ban gold.

No-one uses gold now, save for a few mad people you meet on the internet.  Thus they won't ban gold as it isn't even on the radar as a problem.  If there's something that could* challenge the status of 'state sponsored money' it is crypto; it's far more likely that they'd ban that.  But in reality nearly everyone uses fiat currency for everything -- the banks have won that particular battle.

[* well, it isn't actually going to, but theoretically]

A couple of thoughts:

- buying PM in modern times leaves a paper trail - if the goverment find evidence you bought some, they assume you still have it, even if it was lost in a boating accident. 2021 headline - "Government forces Coininvest to reveal details of all customers"

- crypto - more likely to be used a currency over PM. As for what will happen in this area, its a real wild card.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
37 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

But if it’s held offshore? How are they going to get it?

isn't the deal at BV ...when you come to sell the funds are transftered back to the bank acc that you funded BV with...

so most of us it will be a UK bank?

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