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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

As you say agriculture will move very quickly to potash,another huge winner in the next cycle.

This is one area of been meaning to research more to start adding in the ISA. Any picks from you DB?

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Just now, Sideysid said:

This is one area of been meaning to research more to start adding in the ISA. Any picks from you DB?

Iv been buying  Mosiac Co,though nothing like what i want to own later in the sector.Mosiac should grow production into the price increases.Iv also bought a few K and S group (ticker SDF) a couple of weeks ago when they said their new Canadian Bethune was down for a few days.I hope to get them lower as they have a lot of debt,but could be a big winner in the next cycle as they should grow production by 35% in 5 years.

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My oil and gas work isnt anywhere near the currency work,but we do cross market it with liquidity cycles.Good place to add our recent dollar calls were once again the best in the market.The dollar turned just below 97 and is now at 94.We see 88 and maybe 74 unless the deflation kicks in before the targets can be hit.

For oil we see below $20 for a very short period then a bull market to $200+.Natural gas will maybe be the 2nd best performing commod in the next cycle after silver.The explosion in the oil price will drive the reflation and also the rush to clean transport etc with a lag.As you say agriculture will move very quickly to potash,another huge winner in the next cycle.

Silver is the big one though for me.In the history of futures trading the commercials have never ever sought to take delivery and been net long like they are now.The large speculators are also momentum players and are also at a 20 year extreme in net short postioning.When that turns they will chase positions.We have an outstanding chance here to accumulate silver (and platinum whos gold ratios is at the lowest since the early 80s).I think there is a very strong chance we are close to the biggest silver bull in history,but just a very strong one will do.

Hey DurhamBorn, I follow all the threads on here... still trying to get my head round it all. I've looked Coin Invest and Buillion Vault, so I want to take a punt and buy some silver. I am a total novice at any of this ! So I buy it... what hold it at home and then what happens when we say go into the silver bull market ? how do you sell it ? soooooo confusded !

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12 minutes ago, Mere mortal said:

Hey DurhamBorn, I follow all the threads on here... still trying to get my head round it all. I've looked Coin Invest and Buillion Vault, so I want to take a punt and buy some silver. I am a total novice at any of this ! So I buy it... what hold it at home and then what happens when we say go into the silver bull market ? how do you sell it ? soooooo confusded !

I thinking the same but have concerns over storage (avoiding tarnishing/milk spots) and just how easy it will be to sell them. Are there places you can just walk into off the sreet and hand over a bunch of silver coins for cash?

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10 minutes ago, null; said:

I thinking the same but have concerns over storage (avoiding tarnishing/milk spots) and just how easy it will be to sell them. Are there places you can just walk into off the sreet and hand over a bunch of silver coins for cash?

glad I'm not the only newbie to all this.... 

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Bricks & Mortar
16 hours ago, dgul said:
16 hours ago, Castlevania said:

But if it’s held offshore? How are they going to get it?

Well, it wouldn't matter, just that it was held.  They'd prosecute to make you sell it.

I think it's worse than that.  Overseas gold is at risk from your own government, and the government of the host country too.  Not just one, but two governments to worry about.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

It's the dollar index

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/U.S._Dollar_Index

 

You can track it anywhere, like here:
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/index/dxy

So if the figure goes higher, the relative strength of the dollar versus the basket of currencies strengthens, and vice versa?

Is the basket of currencies weighted to amount/s the US requires to trade with these countries? Is the weighting re-evaluated on a rolling, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis?

Apologies, just trying to get my head round this.

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You can walk in and Sell Silver and other PM's yes. Hatton Garden Metals in London have a price list on their website. No idea if you need an account or if you can literally just walk in. I assume there are other places around the UK too.

HGM.jpg

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1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

So if the figure goes higher, the relative strength of the dollar versus the basket of currencies strengthens, and vice versa?

Is the basket of currencies weighted to amount/s the US requires to trade with these countries? Is the weighting re-evaluated on a rolling, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis?

Apologies, just trying to get my head round this.

I believe it was supposed to reflect the importance of those selected currencies to US trade, but it hasn't been updated in 20 years or so, hence the continued existence of Swedish SEK and lack of Yuan or Peso, among others.

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1 hour ago, DonkeyKong said:

You can walk in and Sell Silver and other PM's yes. Hatton Garden Metals in London have a price list on their website. No idea if you need an account or if you can literally just walk in. I assume there are other places around the UK too.

HGM.jpg

Yes, Hatton metals and other places off Hatton Gardens, or ATS Bullion closer to Soho. Last time I checked there was no "account" required as such, but you have to produce an ID (two, if shifting more than £5k worth of shiny) and the yearly limit for cash purchases at ATS is now at £8k, down from £10k. So there's clearly a trace left.

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1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

So if the figure goes higher, the relative strength of the dollar versus the basket of currencies strengthens, and vice versa?

Is the basket of currencies weighted to amount/s the US requires to trade with these countries? Is the weighting re-evaluated on a rolling, weekly, monthly or quarterly basis?

Apologies, just trying to get my head round this.

If the figure goes down the dollar is getting weaker against a basket of other currencies.It doesnt take everything in,but its still the best way to measure against others assets and we use it a lot for cross market work.It never tells the whole story as there are lots of commod currencies like the AUS and CAD etc.I dont want to start listing all the data we use,but we use dollar liquidity (QE etc) against dollar demands for a lot of calls.If the US keeps pushing on tariffs i could see China responding with cutting their currency value.The Fed cant tighten much into this sort of picture.

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2 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

Hey DurhamBorn, I follow all the threads on here... still trying to get my head round it all. I've looked Coin Invest and Buillion Vault, so I want to take a punt and buy some silver. I am a total novice at any of this ! So I buy it... what hold it at home and then what happens when we say go into the silver bull market ? how do you sell it ? soooooo confusded !

When silver explodes you will be able to sell it easily.You can walk in bullion dealers,if in the North Chards in Blackpool,easy to get to just south of the pleasure beach.You can then exchange a Maple for a Thai massage while your there (ok 3 at the moment but 1 soon xD),or plenty in London.You can even sell them on Ebay easy and if your buying Vat free from Germany now you can pretty much sell them straight away for small profits.Though of course if they go to £150 a coin it will be much better flogging a few a week then.

 

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6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

When silver explodes you will be able to sell it easily.You can walk in bullion dealers,if in the North Chards in Blackpool,easy to get to just south of the pleasure beach.You can then exchange a Maple for a Thai massage while your there (ok 3 at the moment but 1 soon xD),or plenty in London.You can even sell them on Ebay easy and if your buying Vat free from Germany now you can pretty much sell them straight away for small profits.Though of course if they go to £150 a coin it will be much better flogging a few a week then.

 

I was wondering why you had bought 100 Maples instead of CGT free Britannia's, she must be good.

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3 hours ago, Sideysid said:

This is one area of been meaning to research more to start adding in the ISA. Any picks from you DB?

Nutrien formed from Postash Saskatchwen and Agrium.Big boy in the sector.

Numbers 1+9 in this top ten potash co. list

http://www.thedailyrecords.com/2018-2019-2020-2021/world-famous-top-10-list/world/largest-fertilizer-companies-world-best/6554/#1_PotashCorp

Both were good divi payers as well.

DB thanks for the K+S heads up.

 

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

I believe it was supposed to reflect the importance of those selected currencies to US trade, but it hasn't been updated in 20 years or so, hence the continued existence of Swedish SEK and lack of Yuan or Peso, among others.

I thought DXY was reweighted annually?

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For those worried about silver coins tarnishing dont. Its still silver. TIP cleaning tea stained spoons, silver knives and forks, the inside of your tea pot, just soak them in washing up powder and water.

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22 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I thought DXY was reweighted annually?

It might be, that I don't know, but in such case it would only be re-weighted within the existing basket of currencies. No currencies have been added since the inclusion of Euro, even though some would make sense.

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38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

I thought DXY was reweighted annually?

Bored at work so I looked into it. DXY is maintained by Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE). It seems they review the formula used to calculate their indexes (DXY, ICELX, ICEEX and ICEJX) every quarter. This is an equation beyond my intelligence. However they state that the DXY weightings are unchanged since inception in 1973, which doesn’t really make sense given that the Euro forms 57.60%. Is the 57.60% an amalgamation of the weight given to multiple pre-Euro European currencies? I dunno.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
16 hours ago, Calcutta said:

Well, how much of this have I missed then...

Went on a bender for a couple of months, when I returned to the world the old site was nowt but tumbleweeds and everyone had run away.

 

WELCOME to the PARTY!

I visited Calcutta last FEB...Lovely masala dosa my favorite indian scoff, all for under a quid!:D

dosa.jpg

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10 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Bored at work so I looked into it. DXY is maintained by Intercontinental Exchange Inc (ICE). It seems they review the formula used to calculate their indexes (DXY, ICELX, ICEEX and ICEJX) every quarter. This is an equation beyond my intelligence. However they state that the DXY weightings are unchanged since inception in 1973, which doesn’t really make sense given that the Euro forms 57.60%. Is the 57.60% an amalgamation of the weight given to multiple pre-Euro European currencies? I dunno.

There's trade weighted DXY and DXY I believe.

8 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Cheers lavalas

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

When silver explodes you will be able to sell it easily.You can walk in bullion dealers,if in the North Chards in Blackpool,easy to get to just south of the pleasure beach.You can then exchange a Maple for a Thai massage while your there (ok 3 at the moment but 1 soon xD),or plenty in London.You can even sell them on Ebay easy and if your buying Vat free from Germany now you can pretty much sell them straight away for small profits.Though of course if they go to £150 a coin it will be much better flogging a few a week then.

 

Been looking at Silver stocks.

Is SLV the preferred ETF?

It's the same price as 2015/16 low.

 

Some of the stocks have been battered of late-First Maj,Hecla,PAAS etc

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Something like that yes.I will have enough from ISAs for income so il be able to play around with the SIPP etc.Im going to time mine so i can pull the allowance out each year tax free and have zero left in it by 67.I have a £60 a week final salary pension at 67 so dont want any more as on top of my state pension of £160 that takes me to the tax limit nearly.

 

Thanks.

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sleepwello'nights
18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 they are really giving everyone £600 a year free dosh as you can pay in £2880,get the tax relief then draw it back out even with a live pension.I fully intend to do just that and at least it will cover half the council tax.

I understand the principle but who do you pay the £2880 pension contribution to and how do you draw it back out? 

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To those of you asking where to buy silver coins - I always use goldsilver.be, paying in EUR using TransferWise.  All above board, and without the 20% VAT penalty. Just bought some nice 10oz Queen’s Beasts and more Britannias to add to the stack.

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