Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[wherebee]

23 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing to think hardly anyone owns it yet the commercials are net long for the first time in history.I fully intend to have 15% of my liquid wealth in silver and another 10%-15% in PM miners.The risk/reward is hugely in favour.It might not come off,i can live with that,but life changing amounts could be made for ordinary people who are prepared to get in and wait.

I've held 30k in junior miners for 4 years - traded sideway or down slightly for most of that.  for no other reason than insurance - when the world goes to shit, they will be in demand one way or another.

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, wherebee said:

I've held 30k in junior miners for 4 years - traded sideway or down slightly for most of that.  for no other reason than insurance - when the world goes to shit, they will be in demand one way or another.

good job it wasnt ngd.

[wherebee]

1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

good job it wasnt ngd.

oh, there is risk anywhere, but if the bubble keeps going my mainstream income is highly unlikely to stop dead.  Junior miners are a bet against the current status quo.

 

Physical metal is another matter - being internationally mobile means stacking is no good as nowhere to put it and cross border moves become extra risky.

[Sound Money]

Does anyone have any recommendations for synthetic/futures based ETFs for gold/silver?

Ive always held physical with bullionvault but I’m hoping to avoid “collectibles” capital gains tax in future in the USA. Physical based ETFs are subject to the same taxes.

[Sasquatch]

Phew! Just spent the last 4 or 5 days ploughing through all 145 pages! An epic read. Some very interesting ideas and postulations on here. Well done to DB for setting it up. I've just dipped my toes into the silver coin marketplace and am awaiting delivery today of £750 of VAT free Britannia's from coininvest. Hope they arrive intact from Germany! Only silver coins currently in my possession are slightly battered hammered pennies from my main pastime of, ahem, metal detecting. I see others on here also fess up to trudging up and down muddy fields.

Some big financial decisions to make with our surplus limited company funds and also my pension cash currently sat in a SIPP. For the latter, I mentioned gold bullion to my IFA but his response was not positive. Seeing him this week so will talk more then. 

[Lightscribe]

27 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Some big financial decisions to make with our surplus limited company funds and also my pension cash currently sat in a SIPP. For the latter, I mentioned gold bullion to my IFA but his response was not positive. Seeing him this week so will talk more then. 

I wouldn’t think many IFAs would have a positive stance on physical PMs for investment. Prehaps a small allocation of commodity funds (including PM/miners etc) for a balanced portfolio.

Their job is not to predict the impending financial ‘doom’, but to advise on what will provide a balanced return on a longer term timescale investment. That opinion is based on whats happened in the past will continue to the future, allowing for any ‘bumps’ in the road.

If we do see this deflation/reflation cycle in the next few years and we see something akin to 1929 again, then the above outlook will be out the window. No harm putting a ‘bit’ aside for the worse case scenario, just don’t expect anyone in finance advising you to do it.

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Phew! Just spent the last 4 or 5 days ploughing through all 145 pages! An epic read. Some very interesting ideas and postulations on here. Well done to DB for setting it up. I've just dipped my toes into the silver coin marketplace and am awaiting delivery today of £750 of VAT free Britannia's from coininvest. Hope they arrive intact from Germany! Only silver coins currently in my possession are slightly battered hammered pennies from my main pastime of, ahem, metal detecting. I see others on here also fess up to trudging up and down muddy fields.

Some big financial decisions to make with our surplus limited company funds and also my pension cash currently sat in a SIPP. For the latter, I mentioned gold bullion to my IFA but his response was not positive. Seeing him this week so will talk more then. 

They will arrive just fine.When they do just make sure the box hasnt been opened and re-sealed before you sign for it.They usually have a sort of strong brown tape around them,you'd be able to tell if it had been opened,iv never had a problem with Coinivest,very good service.As a contrarian i love hearing IFAs think PMs are a joke,its like why the funds are all long term net short,but the commercials are net long for the first time in history.They are going to take delivery and those shorts are going to have to come up with the physical at some point or exit those trades.I think will be able to sell those Brits for £100+ each at some point,maybe even £170+.Time will tell.

 

[Sasquatch]

14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They will arrive just fine.When they do just make sure the box hasnt been opened and re-sealed before you sign for it.They usually have a sort of strong brown tape around them,you'd be able to tell if it had been opened,iv never had a problem with Coinivest,very good service.As a contrarian i love hearing IFAs think PMs are a joke,its like why the funds are all long term net short,but the commercials are net long for the first time in history.They are going to take delivery and those shorts are going to have to come up with the physical at some point or exit those trades.I think will be able to sell those Brits for £100+ each at some point,maybe even £170+.Time will tell.

 

They've just arrived. Plain box with reinforced brown tape. Interestingly the office receptionist didn't have to sign for it (our office is in a shared workspace with a full time reception). All very unassuming (which makes sense!). Will probably buy some more in due course especially bearing in mind the VAT free element and possibility that this will end after March 19. 

Not at all surprised with the IFA's reaction. I do know him quite well so can have a very frank discussion with him. I took my pensions into cash just before the 08 crash so he knows of my 'doomer' tendencies. Following this I took his advice and then went for a 5 year FTSE 'balanced' fund investment. It had the potential to grow by up to 10% per annum with the added protection that it couldn't drop below the original investment value. The result after 5 years.......nil growth! The SIPP has sat in cash since. I don't necessarily need it for retirement (approx £80,000) so I'm prepared to have a bit of a high stakes punt with some or all of it. Probably a mix of bullion, cash and shares. For the latter, the reflation stocks look interesting (telecoms, energy maybe some miners). I'm still educating myself with these though. 

40 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

I wouldn’t think many IFAs would have a positive stance on physical PMs for investment. Prehaps a small allocation of commodity funds (including PM/miners etc) for a balanced portfolio.

Their job is not to predict the impending financial ‘doom’, but to advise on what will provide a balanced return on a longer term timescale investment. That opinion is based on whats happened in the past will continue to the future, allowing for any ‘bumps’ in the road.

If we do see this deflation/reflation cycle in the next few years and we see something akin to 1929 again, then the above outlook will be out the window. No harm putting a ‘bit’ aside for the worse case scenario, just don’t expect anyone in finance advising you to do it.

Agreed. I think your average IFA treads a very generic path. 

[Barnsey]

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I still think we will get the deflation,but im happy to keep averaging in.Im pretty certain we are heading for a reflation cycle that will likely get very much out of hand and the end result is a ten bag for silver from here.If it goes down 30% first il be buying more.All eyes on if China de-values by a big amount soon.

I believe this may be the next step, US-China trade war only continuing to pick up pace, especially now that USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) finally agreed, and explicitly stated a few hours ago by President Trump to " bring all three Great Nations together in competition with the rest of the world".

Seems the tax cuts have given markets a bit of a boost, this month into November still a time to be ready for the black swan in US markets, but if not then we're looking for the swan to occur this side of the pond in Europe, likely Italy, which has the 3rd largest sovereign debt market in the world. Liquidity drying up, US QT as of today now increased to $50 billion/month and we have a share buyback blackout commencing on the 5th, which applies to 86% of the S&P 500, tax cut fuelled buybacks have been keeping the market afloat recently so will be interesting to see how things pan out by the end of this week.

from @occupywisdom on Twitter

[Majorpain]

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/everything-about-the-ilfs-crisis-that-has-india-in-panic-mode/articleshow/66026024.cms

Indian bank just blew up Lehmann style, the Indian central bank begging for the Fed to stop raising a few months ago should have been a clue that all was not well!  Too much betting on land prices this time.

[Barnsey]

Quote

 

The People’s Bank of China will probably pursue a looser monetary policy to shore up growth in face of the threats to trade, and likely won’t intervene much to counter resultant downward pressure on the yuan, according to the JPMorgan analysis.

The bank now expects the yuan to drop to 7.01 per dollar by the end of December and 7.19 by September 2019, after previously projecting it at 7.02 in 12 months’ time. The currency was at 6.8857 in offshore trading Monday. The median forecast of analysts surveyed by Bloomberg is for the currency to strengthen to 6.70 by the end of next year. Deutsche Bank AG is among the yuan bears, seeing it depreciate to 7.4 next year.

“Looser Chinese monetary policy ensures that the U.S. dollar will become an ever-higher yielder versus the renminbi for the rest of the cycle,” the JPMorgan strategists wrote, using another term for China’s currency. The yield gap will favor the dollar thanks to further Federal Reserve tightening, in the team’s outlook.

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call

Its amazing really how things are playing out the way my friend told me they would long before Trump.He said the west would have to put China and Russia (and maybe Iran and Turkey) back into their boxes and that it would lead to a very strong reflation cycle as the west rushed to invest in military,energy,telcos and production.He said the long dis-inflation would see a huge debt deflation followed by this.The question is how long does the Fed keep increasing when China is about to send deflation to the US?.

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing really how things are playing out the way my friend told me they would long before Trump.He said the west would have to put China and Russia (and maybe Iran and Turkey) back into their boxes and that it would lead to a very strong reflation cycle as the west rushed to invest in military,energy,telcos and production.He said the long dis-inflation would see a huge debt deflation followed by this.The question is how long does the Fed keep increasing when China is about to send deflation to the US?.

I have no doubt the Fed will keep increasing until the stock market buckles, at that point they'll throw everything at it, sacrificing the $. When that happens, Gold and Silver will take off. To what extent they'll be able to "save" the stock market is a difficult question to answer, as they'll probably be close to 3% when it happens instead of the 5.25% in 2008. Looking back at the previous cycles, once Powell holds rates, that's your "get out now" call.

Edit: The "predictable path" sees a few more rate hikes into mid 2019 but of course any market turmoil in the meantime would probably mark the end of the hikes, consensus for recession still by end of 2020 which in realistic terms probably means late 2019. Great article with lots of charts on US stock activity:

https://northmantrader.com/2018/09/30/chart-storm-2/

[sancho panza]

4 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

They've just arrived. Plain box with reinforced brown tape. Interestingly the office receptionist didn't have to sign for it (our office is in a shared workspace with a full time reception). All very unassuming (which makes sense!). Will probably buy some more in due course especially bearing in mind the VAT free element and possibility that this will end after March 19. 

Not at all surprised with the IFA's reaction. I do know him quite well so can have a very frank discussion with him. I took my pensions into cash just before the 08 crash so he knows of my 'doomer' tendencies. Following this I took his advice and then went for a 5 year FTSE 'balanced' fund investment. It had the potential to grow by up to 10% per annum with the added protection that it couldn't drop below the original investment value. The result after 5 years.......nil growth! The SIPP has sat in cash since. I don't necessarily need it for retirement (approx £80,000) so I'm prepared to have a bit of a high stakes punt with some or all of it. Probably a mix of bullion, cash and shares. For the latter, the reflation stocks look interesting (telecoms, energy maybe some miners). I'm still educating myself with these though. 

Agreed. I think your average IFA treads a very generic path. 

As @Sideysid says,these guys are n for the  <1.5% fees off lots of clients.I fondly remember the days when I had a keen as ...manager at Barclays ringing me up to try and flog me a range of these dead wood products .I always took the time to explain to him how the only winner was going to be the bank.

It took a couple of years but he gave up in the end and noone has bothered since.Welcome by the way.

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I believe this may be the next step, US-China trade war only continuing to pick up pace, especially now that USMCA (US-Mexico-Canada Agreement) finally agreed, and explicitly stated a few hours ago by President Trump to " bring all three Great Nations together in competition with the rest of the world".

Seems the tax cuts have given markets a bit of a boost, this month into November still a time to be ready for the black swan in US markets, but if not then we're looking for the swan to occur this side of the pond in Europe, likely Italy, which has the 3rd largest sovereign debt market in the world. Liquidity drying up, US QT as of today now increased to $50 billion/month and we have a share buyback blackout commencing on the 5th, which applies to 86% of the S&P 500, tax cut fuelled buybacks have been keeping the market afloat recently so will be interesting to see how things pan out by the end of this week.

from @occupywisdom on Twitter

What's the bit in bold refer to Barnsey? Is it due to results publishing timetable?

Personally, I'm planning for the big cahuna in the US next year, with a few ripples this side of the pond and elsewhere as the warm up waves.

As per graph,I'm  substantive fan of long term trendlines that are cautiously drawn.I have no shorts on the US yet but view what's coming as the opportunity of my lifetime.

3 hours ago, Majorpain said:

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/industry/banking/finance/banking/everything-about-the-ilfs-crisis-that-has-india-in-panic-mode/articleshow/66026024.cms

Indian bank just blew up Lehmann style, the Indian central bank begging for the Fed to stop raising a few months ago should have been a clue that all was not well!  Too much betting on land prices this time.

Fascinating MP,thanks for posting.I note over the last year,that many emerging stock markets haven't followed the US at all .

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-09-30/jpmorgan-says-u-s-china-tariffs-to-go-all-out-lowers-yuan-call

Thing is with letting the yuan drift lower is that they'll get a severe bout of food price inflation.I do think we're at the beginning of the end for the ruing Commie's there.Massive demogrpahic imbalance-male to female which historically bodes ill, leveraged banking system, lots of corruption.

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing really how things are playing out the way my friend told me they would long before Trump.He said the west would have to put China and Russia (and maybe Iran and Turkey) back into their boxes and that it would lead to a very strong reflation cycle as the west rushed to invest in military,energy,telcos and production.He said the long dis-inflation would see a huge debt deflation followed by this.The question is how long does the Fed keep increasing when China is about to send deflation to the US?.

But is it?You can't casue price deflation if you're products are getting blocked/taxed out of the market.China has a huge problem in that the US owes it a lot of money.

I'm maybe alone here but I think Powell will keep hiking for a while yet.

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I have no doubt the Fed will keep increasing until the stock market buckles, at that point they'll throw everything at it, sacrificing the $. When that happens, Gold and Silver will take off. To what extent they'll be able to "save" the stock market is a difficult question to answer, as they'll probably be close to 3% when it happens instead of the 5.25% in 2008. Looking back at the previous cycles, once Powell holds rates, that's your "get out now" call.

Edit: The "predictable path" sees a few more rate hikes into mid 2019 but of course any market turmoil in the meantime would probably mark the end of the hikes, consensus for recession still by end of 2020 which in realistic terms probably means late 2019. Great article with lots of charts on US stock activity:

https://northmantrader.com/2018/09/30/chart-storm-2/

first bit in bold:I'm not sure they will save the stock market.Trump picked Powell, and Trump has re election in 2020,his votes are in not bailing Wall St,he's a very bright guy whose come up with one of the most innovative and brave calls for the Fed Chair that we'll ever likely see while the Fed exists in terms of Powell having no formal academic economic background.He is jsut not using the same plyabook as Bernanke/Yellen

 

Second bit:Having said the above,I think you're bang on with that

 

In terms of the US stock market,the headline numbers hide a raft of deteriorating sectors.Particularly with regard to the Fang stocks.

[sancho panza]

8 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Boom....hiss.......

Looks mlike top end blowing up first,UK following same pattern

 

BTLers still loading up at 3% gross........40% new mortgages.

And the builders are still adding stock.This will be epic.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/01/australia-sydney-melbourne-house-price-condo-unit-bubble-new-construction-supply/

How a Housing Bubble Deflates: Sydney & Melbourne, Australia

by Wolf Richter • Oct 1, 2018 • 0 Comments

Every housing bubble requires the connivance of the banks and regulators.

Sydney’s housing bubble, one of the most magnificent in the world, is deflating further. So far this year, home sales volume has plunged 18.5%, according to CoreLogic. And prices have followed. In September, this is what happened compared to a year earlier:

• Prices of single-family houses dropped 7.6%;
• Prices of “units” – condos in US lingo – fell 2.6%;
• Prices of all types of homes combined fell 6.1%,
• Prices at the most expensive quarter of the market dropped 8.4%;
• Prices at the least expensive quarter of the market fell “only” 3.3%.

CoreLogic’s Daily Home Value Index is now down 6.3% from its peak last September:

Melbourne’s housing-bubble deflation has been lagging a few months behind Sydney’s but is now catching up. So far this year, sales volume has plunged 15.8%. And prices have followed: Year-to-date, house prices fell 5.1% and unit prices are down 1.5%. Over the third quarter alone, prices fell 2.4% compared to the second quarter, making Melbourne the fastest deteriorating housing market among Australia’s eight capital cities

At the most expensive quarter of sales, prices dropped 6.7% from a year ago. At the least expensive quarter, prices were still up 4.1%.

For all types of dwellings combined, prices declined 3.4% year-over-year, according to CoreLogic and are down 4.5% from their peak at the end of November 2017:

So how big were those bubbles?

“Despite the recent falls in Sydney and Melbourne, dwelling values remain 46% and 40% higher than they were five years ago, highlighting that most home owners in these cities continue to benefit from a substantial lift in wealth from the boom in housing,” explained CoreLogic head of research Tim Lawless in the report. So there’s a long way to go.

Corelogic tracks the largest five of Australia’s eight capital cities in a separate index. Sydney and Melbourne account for about 60% of the national value of housing and weigh the most in this index. Home prices in the remaining three cities in the five-capitals index weren’t hot either in September:

• Brisbane: home prices inched up 0.8% year-over-year.
• Adelaide: home prices inched up 0.7% year-over-year.
• Perth: home prices fell 2.8% year-over-year and are down 13.2% from their peak in 2014 when Western Australia’s mining boom turned into a bust.

The aggregate five capital cities index fell 3.7% in September year-over-year. It was the 12th month in a row of month-to-month declines. The index is now down 4.0% from its peak in October 2017:

In the remaining three capital cities:

• Hobart: home prices surged 9.3% year-over-year, to a new record;
• Darwin: home prices fell 3.7% year-over year and are down 22.1% from their peak in 2014;
• Canberra: home prices rose 2.0% year-over-year, to a new record.

Investors still account for 41% of the value of new mortgage demand, according to CoreLogic. But they’re being hit by new regulations and higher mortgage rates designed to tamp down on investor enthusiasm.

And rental yields have been miserably low: In Sydney, “gross rental yields” – annual rental income of a property as a percentage of the property’s value, not including interest and other expenses – were 3.2% in Sydney and 2.9% in Melbourne.

Subtract interest and other expenses, and it’s a money loser. These losses are mitigated by being deductible from income taxes (“negative gearing”), but they’re still losses, and the only hope for investors under these circumstances is that the property will rise in value. But the opposite is happening now.

Every housing bubble requires the connivance of the banks, and Australia is no exception. A banking scandal of enormous proportions has partially come to light via the Royal Commission investigation of the banks and revelations from other sources. Just about every malfeasance imaginable has been in play for years, as regulators played ball with the banks, and politicians encouraged it. There is nothing like a big housing bubble to make everyone look good and bring in the dough.

But these things can go only so far before the whole edifice – including the banks – is at risk of collapse. So now efforts are underway to get a handle on it and tighten up lending, particularly for speculators and over-stretched households.

Among other items, there is now a new focus on debt-to-income ratios, which pull many households out of the more expensive ends of the housing market, such as in Sydney and Melbourne.

“With the release of the banking commission interim report, there is a chance that already tight credit conditions could tighten even further,” CoreLogic’s report points out:

The constant theme from the report is that regulators should monitor and enforce existing policy much better, while lenders and brokers need to place client interests ahead of profits. This implies a more conservative lending approach going forward which is likely to impact further on credit availability.

The latest credit aggregates from the Reserve Bank show housing credit growth tracking at the lowest level in almost five years, and investor related credit is growing at the slowest pace on record.

If credit conditions do tighten further from here, we can expect housing market activity to follow suit.

But supply of new construction is surging:

In Greater Sydney, 77,000 condos are scheduled to be completed in 2019 and 2020, which will increase the total stock of condos by 9.3%! In Greater Melbourne, nearly 79,000 units are scheduled to be completed in 2019 and 2020, which will increase the total stock of condos by 11.5%! CoreLogic:

With such a substantial pipeline of housing stock in the wings at a time when credit has become less available, investment and foreign buying activity has fallen materially and population growth is trending lower, this could create some headwinds for the market.

This may create some challenges for absorbing newly built housing stock, especially those dwellings targeted specifically towards investors.

The US housing market is now getting hit by rising mortgage rates. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage already comes with a 5% rate, and 6% beckons as the next target. Read…  What Will Surging Mortgage Rates Do to Housing Bubble 2?  

Cross post from the Oz thread.Credit deflation here we come

[Majorpain]

26 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Cross post from the Oz thread.Credit deflation here we come

Agreed, they have defied Economic Gravity for a long time, but even Central Banks are not omnipotent.  Cracks are appearing all over the place.

DB's not got too long to wait until he gets to tell everyone "i told you so" IMO! 

[Barnsey]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

first bit in bold:I'm not sure they will save the stock market.Trump picked Powell, and Trump has re election in 2020,his votes are in not bailing Wall St,he's a very bright guy whose come up with one of the most innovative and brave calls for the Fed Chair that we'll ever likely see while the Fed exists in terms of Powell having no formal academic economic background.He is jsut not using the same plyabook as Bernanke/Yellen

Problem for Trump is that he's done a complete 180 and has now taken full ownership of the stock bubble he so harshly criticised when running for President, praising record highs and critisises Powell's hikes any chance he gets these days. Trump recently stating he's a "low interest rate kinda guy".

Share buyback blackout is indeed as you correctly say due to release of 3rd quarter earnings results.

[Errol]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its amazing really how things are playing out the way my friend told me they would long before Trump.He said the west would have to put China and Russia (and maybe Iran and Turkey) back into their boxes

This isn't going to work for a start. The US has already lost. The world is moving towards multipolar, multi-currency systems and a Eurasian economic machine that will survive perfectly well without the input of the US.

[Barnsey]

20 minutes ago, Errol said:

This isn't going to work for a start. The US has already lost. The world is moving towards multipolar, multi-currency systems and a Eurasian economic machine that will survive perfectly well without the input of the US.

There are very valid arguments on both sides regarding de-dollarisation, I honestly don't know which way it'll go.

[Viceroy]

On 30/08/2018 at 09:40, sancho panza said:

Viceroy,welcome back.As ever though,he just isn't answering the question.

Using the Dow for anything is dangerous,let alone encouraging retail investors into a misplaced sense of security.

1) The committee can change the components at will,with no formula deployed.

2) Goldman Sachs share price $240 USD has a market cap of $90bn and a higher weighting in the index than Exxon market cap $330bn share price $80.

3) The Dow isn't necessarily 'big money' because a) they weight according to share price

                                                                                         b) they don't pick shares for inclusion on market cap eg Amazon

4) His claim that 'big money' parks there in a crisis is just tosh.It's gone down and up with the S&P.

Hello fantastic threaders! - just back from a mammoth family road trip in France hence the delay.  

For those interested, Goldseek radio podcast with Armstrong from 25 Sept = https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hr9PPaVAkZ4

 

Snippets;

 

"..political chaos, sovereign debt problems and a decline in confidence in most Governments around the world means international capital flows into the US$ and stock markets 

only reason US$ would decline significantly is if confidence grew in the Euro (for example)..currently that looks impossible hence the strengthening US$ and US markets

 

This is the most hated bull market in history.. forecasters say it's gonna crash since 2009+ but so far is hasn't

Usually the flight to quality would be Government bonds, but not this time. Global political uncertainty - where do I put my money?

In a sovereign debt crisis, tangible assets survive..(stocks, gold, real estate..)

 

(@15mins) DOW, S&P and NASDAQ - international big 'smart' institutional money buys US equities such as DOW (they can't invest in gold - that is more for the retailer) as it's seen as a 'trophy' type investment, they don't care how it's weighted etc. All US markets will rise but generally if the DOW leads, it's indicative that international money is flowing in.  Hence if it starts to fall, then foreign capital is pulling out.  Once it goes past 28K then people will throw in the towel and start speculating - watch it rise..

Retail participation in stocks is at only 50% of 2007 levels...this is not a bubble..

 

Socrates forecasts new highs in the US$ into 2020, possibly 2021 and then turn down.

From 2020 commodities starts its bull market.

 

TIME target for the DOW is late 2020-21 to hit the 40,000 mark.

 

In times of crisis, capital invests where it considers safe, disregarding how overvalued stocks may be priced;

From 2007 high, S&P crashed 45% bottoming in Jan 2009)  https://www.macrotrends.net/2324/sp-500-historical-chart-data

Jan 2009 shows the highest PE ratio ever at 120 (compare 2018 at 22)  https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-earnings-chart

[Lightscribe]

7 hours ago, Errol said:

This isn't going to work for a start. The US has already lost. The world is moving towards multipolar, multi-currency systems and a Eurasian economic machine that will survive perfectly well without the input of the US.

We’ll see, the $ won’t give up easily as the reserve currency, think we’ll have a war or a global event before that happens.

[DoINeedOne]

whats people opinion on royal mail still

More than £800m has been wiped off the stock market value of Royal Mail after it issued a shock warning on Monday that profits will slump this year.

Investors sent shares in the post and parcels group down almost 18% as the company refused to rule out higher stamp prices to rebuild profits.

One thing whilst selling stuff on eBay when I move I stopped going to the post office because of the prices it was actually cheaper for me to use someone like Hermes or even DPD at times and have them pick the parcel up too

[ashestoashes]

woe is vodafone, how low can it go ?

[leonardratso]

0p

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

whats people opinion on royal mail still

More than £800m has been wiped off the stock market value of Royal Mail after it issued a shock warning on Monday that profits will slump this year.

Investors sent shares in the post and parcels group down almost 18% as the company refused to rule out higher stamp prices to rebuild profits.

One thing whilst selling stuff on eBay when I move I stopped going to the post office because of the prices it was actually cheaper for me to use someone like Hermes or even DPD at times and have them pick the parcel up too

Iv bought a few this morning.I owned them,but sold most of them when they ran up so quickly earlier in the year (i got around £5.20 not the £6 they went to) so happy to move back in.As ever id staircase them.Their free cash flow and zero debt means they will be able to buy up lots of smaller players and expand their international footprint during the downturn.I expect the new CEO is chucking it all out in this statement and clearing the decks as well,maybe to put pressure on the unions to boost productivity.The £2 to £5 parcel area is where they make their money and that will prove very hard to crack for competitors.The tricky side they have is how to get the free cash flow to shareholders without getting the unions puffed up.