Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

Well the two jobs i went for iv just been offered the first one and took it .Il SIPP all the profits from the business this year and next if i work into the next tax year as well.I really never thought id go onto PAYE ever again,but the money is just too good to turn down given il be saving pretty much all of it and i think we are going to see a once in a lifetime buying chance soon.There is also the fact whats ahead might give my kids a bit of a rough time and il be able to backstop them if needed with the extra capital.Coininvest will get some hammer as well before we leave the EU in case that VAT free goes.

The shifts also mean i can still hit the yellow sticker section half of the week and although i didnt mention it at interview it was going through my mind.

Why do you want to work here?.So i can buy lots more silver 

[Sasquatch]

42 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well the two jobs i went for iv just been offered the first one and took it .Il SIPP all the profits from the business this year and next if i work into the next tax year as well.I really never thought id go onto PAYE ever again,but the money is just too good to turn down given il be saving pretty much all of it and i think we are going to see a once in a lifetime buying chance soon.There is also the fact whats ahead might give my kids a bit of a rough time and il be able to backstop them if needed with the extra capital.Coininvest will get some hammer as well before we leave the EU in case that VAT free goes.

The shifts also mean i can still hit the yellow sticker section half of the week and although i didnt mention it at interview it was going through my mind.

Why do you want to work here?.So i can buy lots more silver 

Well done! I'm sure you'll put the extra cash to good investment use. Like you, I feel I'm reasonably well positioned but also worry about my children's future. My 21 year old enters the harsh world of work next year when she finishes her degree. The timing might be horrible for her but we can help out if she is struggling (although she is quite proud and will resist this).  

[Agent ZigZag]

4 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Well done! I'm sure you'll put the extra cash to good investment use. Like you, I feel I'm reasonably well positioned but also worry about my children's future. My 21 year old enters the harsh world of work next year when she finishes her degree. The timing might be horrible for her but we can help out if she is struggling (although she is quite proud and will resist this).  

Teach her life lesson No 1, 'Never turn money away from the door'

[ashestoashes]

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

0p

at the moment seems to be driven by cut throat competition on price

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Problem for Trump is that he's done a complete 180 and has now taken full ownership of the stock bubble he so harshly criticised when running for President, praising record highs and critisises Powell's hikes any chance he gets these days. Trump recently stating he's a "low interest rate kinda guy".

Share buyback blackout is indeed as you correctly say due to release of 3rd quarter earnings results.

I think Trump will dump the stock market as quickly as he has pumped and dumped countries,politicians and cabinet appointees..I suspect he'lll take credit for the bubble on the way up and take credit for bursting Wall St on the way down which wil go down very well in the Rust Belt.

Just my take, but he's ruthless and fickle in equal measure

 

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

woe is vodafone, how low can it go ?

I've been lucky with this one as my first entry point was £1-75 but I've held back as the chart is jsut down,down, down.Interesting to see where it bottoms but this is an exciting turn of events in my little world.You're getting a lot of value if you're starting to average in at £1-50 then £1-25 or maybe £1-60,£1-40,£1-20.

Excellent prospects viz exposure to emerging markets,manageable debt,utility status.This is a real long termer for me.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv bought a few this morning.I owned them,but sold most of them when they ran up so quickly earlier in the year (i got around £5.20 not the £6 they went to) so happy to move back in.As ever id staircase them.Their free cash flow and zero debt means they will be able to buy up lots of smaller players and expand their international footprint during the downturn.I expect the new CEO is chucking it all out in this statement and clearing the decks as well,maybe to put pressure on the unions to boost productivity.The £2 to £5 parcel area is where they make their money and that will prove very hard to crack for competitors.The tricky side they have is how to get the free cash flow to shareholders without getting the unions puffed up.

Thanks for the heads up.I've steered clear of these because many years ago I was a posty and it was a shockingly badly run business.I'll have to have a butcher's properly.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Well the two jobs i went for iv just been offered the first one and took it .Il SIPP all the profits from the business this year and next if i work into the next tax year as well.I really never thought id go onto PAYE ever again,but the money is just too good to turn down given il be saving pretty much all of it and i think we are going to see a once in a lifetime buying chance soon.There is also the fact whats ahead might give my kids a bit of a rough time and il be able to backstop them if needed with the extra capital.Coininvest will get some hammer as well before we leave the EU in case that VAT free goes.

The shifts also mean i can still hit the yellow sticker section half of the week and although i didnt mention it at interview it was going through my mind.

Why do you want to work here?.So i can buy lots more silver 

Congrats on the move.I'm in the process of going part time but still keeping my govt sinecure open as a back stop for the family.People take the mickey out of my caution but I've seen many lose their shirts in different ways and taken some chunky losses myself.

There's nothing like a regular pay cheque to free and clear the mind for investing.And maintaining clarity is of the utmost importnance when you're entering these opportunity fests.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza its funny you should mention that but its just what my partner said.She said take one of those jobs so the bills are covered instead of taking income from the business and your investments.That way you can position over the next couple of years with whats ahead without any other considerations and take full advantage.Very rare she says anything,but shes usually right when she does.

Goldies having a better time today, even Eldorado is up 7%,the old dog 

[kibuc]

36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Goldies having a better time today, even Eldorado is up 7%,the old dog 

Yeah, it's a bit insane today. Wesdome up 8%, woot woot. We're all market geniuses today

I read a piece yesterday about Barrick's chariman purchasing - wait for it - 25 milion (!) worth of stock recently, effectively doubling his stake in the company. 25 mil, goddamit.

[sancho panza]

32 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza its funny you should mention that but its just what my partner said.She said take one of those jobs so the bills are covered instead of taking income from the business and your investments.That way you can position over the next couple of years with whats ahead without any other considerations and take full advantage.Very rare she says anything,but shes usually right when she does.

Goldies having a better time today, even Eldorado is up 7%,the old dog 

I was running Mrs P through our retirement plan and in terms of compounding,leaving your returns in,makes a huge difference over ten years(my timeframe of choice

There's a definite benefit from balancing paid work with your pension pot.I'm a bit the wrong side of time poor at the minute.I literally have a day and half off mon to fri this week and need more time to assess/buy some more Goldies, and possibly plot my first Vod buy, as well as running my short portfolio which is growing by the week.

Looking at HUI-lowest is up 2% today.Dare i say it but I think we're bottoming here.Need to get second stair into Kinross and a few others methinks.

https://uk.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs-components

[sancho panza]

5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Yeah, it's a bit insane today. Wesdome up 8%, woot woot. We're all market geniuses today

I read a piece yesterday about Barrick's chariman purchasing - wait for it - 25 milion (!) worth of stock recently, effectively doubling his stake in the company. 25 mil, goddamit.

I think Randgold is getting the best side of the deal personally,but I'm not as well researched as some on here.

There's a lot of the HUI where I look at the 40 year charts and wonder what's taking me so long to average in.

[sancho panza]

Just done my regular check on RM,changes in 24 hrs Leicestershire over £550k, 9 out of 18 reduced.Higher end is starting to squeal.

 

Credit deflation cometh.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?searchType=SALE&locationIdentifier=REGION^61309&insId=1&radius=0.0&minPrice=550000&maxPrice=&minBedrooms=&maxBedrooms=&displayPropertyType=&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&_includeSSTC=on&sortByPriceDescending=&primaryDisplayPropertyType=&secondaryDisplayPropertyType=&oldDisplayPropertyType=&oldPrimaryDisplayPropertyType=&newHome=&auction=false

[Shatner's Bassoon]

4 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

whats people opinion on royal mail still

More than £800m has been wiped off the stock market value of Royal Mail after it issued a shock warning on Monday that profits will slump this year.

Investors sent shares in the post and parcels group down almost 18% as the company refused to rule out higher stamp prices to rebuild profits.

One thing whilst selling stuff on eBay when I move I stopped going to the post office because of the prices it was actually cheaper for me to use someone like Hermes or even DPD at times and have them pick the parcel up too

Royal Mail blamed declining letter volumes. I work for a large energy company - we send over 100m letters a year through them currently. By 2021 the aspiration is that this figure will be zero. It's a no from me. 

[Shatner's Bassoon]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

The shifts also mean i can still hit the yellow sticker section half of the week and although i didnt mention it at interview it was going through my mind.

 

genuinely laughed out loud at this 

[Funn3r]

1 hour ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

Royal Mail blamed declining letter volumes. I work for a large energy company - we send over 100m letters a year through them currently. By 2021 the aspiration is that this figure will be zero. It's a no from me. 

I have actively tried to minimise letter delivery and I get about 2 a month on average. Of course RM must know this so maybe they are planning to repurpose themselves as Amazon delivery or something like that. I would much rather get a delivery from the RM postman than some mucky bloke in a 51 reg Fiesta.

[Errol]

13 hours ago, Sideysid said:

We’ll see, the $ won’t give up easily as the reserve currency, think we’ll have a war or a global event before that happens.

War would obviously end the US dollar hegemony as well. Indeed, it would probably end most life on earth.

[DurhamBorn]

2 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I have actively tried to minimise letter delivery and I get about 2 a month on average. Of course RM must know this so maybe they are planning to repurpose themselves as Amazon delivery or something like that. I would much rather get a delivery from the RM postman than some mucky bloke in a 51 reg Fiesta.

Some of my biggest investment returns have come from companies selling into a falling market,tobacco being the key one.It all depends on if you can increase prices at the same rate you get the falls in demand.Royal Mail has superb free cash flow and it uses half of it a year to buy up parcel companies around the world.No other courier will take over the small packet business they simply dont have the scale.The way to look at it is the postman delivers small packets and its the few letters in each street that is the profit margin that other couriers dont have.Amazon also have zero chance of every doing it.

[leonardratso]

One is up for sale (or as they put it looking for strategic retail partners) but not to competitors/private equity funds, unfortunately a private co. so cant make any cash out of it.

I cant give too much away but its name was mentioned above, well slated by customers and often slagged in the DM due to its employment model.

[sancho panza]

US car sales heading south

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/10/02/september-auto-sales-carmageddon-ford-gm/

' GM stopped giving out monthly numbers of new-vehicle deliveries earlier this year, and switched to quarterly releases. Today it reported its third quarter new vehicle deliveries, and they plunged 11% compared to a year ago, to 694,638 cars and light trucks. All of its brands lost ground.

Ford reported that sales in September dropped 11.2% to 197,404 – with deliveries at the Ford brand down 11.3% (189,236) and at the Lincoln brands down 7.2% (8,168).

Fiat Chrysler, whose brands include Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Alpha Romeo, Fiat, and Maserati, was able to boost its sales by 14.5% in September to 200,769 new vehicles. It thus outsold Ford and moved into third position behind GM and Toyota. Ford dropped into fourth place.

Toyota’s sales, including Lexus and the now abandoned Scion brand, fell 10.4% in September to 203,098, putting the company in second place, just ahead of FCA and Ford. Year-to-date sales inched down 0.4% to 1,824,235.

Other manufacturers didn’t fare so well either: Among the largest: Nissan’s deliveries plunged 12.2% in September and 6.0% YTD. Honda deliveries dropped 7.0% for the month and 2% YTD.

[MrXxx]

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my biggest investment returns have come from companies selling into a falling market,tobacco being the key one.It all depends on if you can increase prices at the same rate you get the falls in demand.Royal Mail has superb free cash flow and it uses half of it a year to buy up parcel companies around the world.No other courier will take over the small packet business they simply dont have the scale.The way to look at it is the postman delivers small packets and its the few letters in each street that is the profit margin that other couriers dont have.Amazon also have zero chance of every doing it.

I think you have it spot on here, the letters are the loss leader that maintains their reputation and so encourages people to use their parcel services over other companies.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza what PM miners are on your radar at the moment,?,any thoughts on Tahoe Resources?.I ran my scans last night and they are showing at number 2 on my rubber band buy list and im thinking of buying.

[Thorn]

DB what are you seeing with the Russell 2000 chart these days...?

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, Thorn said:

DB what are you seeing with the Russell 2000 chart these days...?

Not looking good

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza what PM miners are on your radar at the moment,?,any thoughts on Tahoe Resources?.I ran my scans last night and they are showing at number 2 on my rubber band buy list and im thinking of buying.

I'll get back to you later today as I'm working on it at the mo.I always wait for the US open  +15/30 mins before I buy.A couple have dropped off my buy list-Barrick and a couple have moved in.Sadly,at work tmrw and Fri day shifts so today is my day for rearranging portoflio ahead of next week.

Rearranging my shorts too.So busy day and I'll be given charge of the youngest panza at about 1530.....eek.

 

Edit to add-Most of Stair 1 Goldies from 2017 are down at the mo.Suspect possibly about 30-40% across the board(I never follow it too closely in case it puts me off buying more lol).I'm debating whether whether to have a nudge in a couple of real high risk/poss high return plays like Impala/ElDorado.

[sancho panza]

12 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Not looking good

Makes me feel old laughing at that......

[Barnsey]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Makes me feel old laughing at that......

If it breaches 160 then watch out!

[harp]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some of my biggest investment returns have come from companies selling into a falling market,tobacco being the key one.It all depends on if you can increase prices at the same rate you get the falls in demand.Royal Mail has superb free cash flow and it uses half of it a year to buy up parcel companies around the world.No other courier will take over the small packet business they simply dont have the scale.The way to look at it is the postman delivers small packets and its the few letters in each street that is the profit margin that other couriers dont have.Amazon also have zero chance of every doing it.

Thanks for that DB. Picked up a couple of k worth of Royal Mail (RMG) this morning at 353.6. Looking good so far

My silver chart on the Bullion Vault app looking good too. Have we turned a corner? Whats you algo saying?