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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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ashestoashes
5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

They only sell by the tube and have a much smaller range of coins available. Yeah, they’re good. Based in Ireland so they don’t pass your details onto any government if you buy more than x amount in a year.

is this something that happens in other countries, what value was x ?

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8 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

is this something that happens in other countries, what value was x ?

Most countries. Think it’s £10k in the UK.

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Vodafone has reached another buy point for me down 3.5% today

whats causeing it,is it the cost of 5g or saturation point for smart phones or the big players know something the serfs dont

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sleepwello'nights
16 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

whats causeing it,is it the cost of 5g or saturation point for smart phones or the big players know something the serfs dont

I bought some.

Market consensus seems to be that the dividend is too high and will be cut. 

There have been a number of directors buying in recent weeks.

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About phone companies, I pay for sim only £13

but I have a friend who is with Vodafone and has a monthly sim with upgrade crap always getting a new phone for him and his partner kids iPads have sims too spending £200-£230 roughly a month with Vodafone I nearly choked on my beer, also he said it as if it was normal

 

Not the reason I'm buying Vodafone by the way just a weird conversation i had

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21 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

About phone companies, I pay for sim only £13

but I have a friend who is with Vodafone and has a monthly sim with upgrade crap always getting a new phone for him and his partner kids iPads have sims too spending £200-£230 roughly a month with Vodafone I nearly choked on my beer, also he said it as if it was normal

 

Not the reason I'm buying Vodafone by the way just a weird conversation i had

£13.20 for 2 SIMs here with Voda :P I'm surprised they didn't tell me to get stuffed this year.

Most people go with the flow though and will be paying silly monthly sums for 'free' handsets.

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leonardratso

go with the flow??, i always ring up companies who have put their prices up and bitch about it and then either get them to drop it or cut things out or as per broadband just go back on contract for another 12 months, they probably hate me and think im just a tight miserable old bastard.

I am.

 

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Strong USD may not be so strong going forward, belief creeping in that Sept hike might have been it, DXY 96 call still looking legit if housing market in States continues to head downward with increasing momentum, GS reigning in its online lending another sign of stress. Bear market shares to be found within the FTSE (mentioned on here repeatedly) but have to be very selective, otherwise I'm staying clear, far too much exposure to banking and services.

Yes the dollar call 96.5 is holding so far and my numbers are pointing down for the dollar into early Dec.The dollar work is bound to make a false call at some point,but thats what its showing me.The miners did very well today considering.

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49 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

go with the flow??, i always ring up companies who have put their prices up and bitch about it and then either get them to drop it or cut things out or as per broadband just go back on contract for another 12 months, they probably hate me and think im just a tight miserable old bastard.

I am.

 

Your not most people.

I'd say you are unique... but that would be too kind.

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ashestoashes
1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

About phone companies, I pay for sim only £13

but I have a friend who is with Vodafone and has a monthly sim with upgrade crap always getting a new phone for him and his partner kids iPads have sims too spending £200-£230 roughly a month with Vodafone I nearly choked on my beer, also he said it as if it was normal

 

Not the reason I'm buying Vodafone by the way just a weird conversation i had

plusnet sim only 3gb £5

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ashestoashes
2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

whats causeing it,is it the cost of 5g or saturation point for smart phones or the big players know something the serfs dont

new ceo just started 1st Oct, market not impressed ? 

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Just now, ashestoashes said:

new ceo just started 1st Oct, market not impressed ? 

They think higher rates will increase costs and that a big divi cut is needed.They dont understand that any price increases (every telco will be increasing prices in the next cycle) flow straight to free cash flow.The likes of VOD are very well set for the next cycle as prices increase thanks to inflation while depreciation is set or falling.They are making calls based on the deflation cycle being endless when it is already over,just a debt deflation to finish it.As ever we cant know the bottom on any stocks so a stair case buying is always the prudent way.

Noticed today as well the global warming report.Pressing clean energy,public transport and smart cities.All of this will help drive the reflation and give governments the excuse they need to print and invest.Transport,clean energy,telcos and silver for me and slowly adding into them.(apart from silver and the miners where im already loaded).

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sancho panza
6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Same thing with housebuilders over in states since start of the year, very steep drop in past 2 weeks could be a strong sign.

Bought some more Centrica, will get some VOD soon as not far off my target. Possibly some Nat Grid. Can't really justify buying any others at the moment, RM tempting but unsure of how much potential downside. Would like some BT and SSE along with Stagecoach and Go Ahead but will pick them up in the crash. Also not sure about how much to put into Silver on bullionvault, average in monthly at low amounts I think from here.

dare I say it but Centrica looks to have bottomed,but that'll need confirming over the next few months.I'm genuinely impressed with how much Vod has gone down.I was starting to run my slide rule over them at £2 but have held off as per various comments I've made on their downtrend appearing strong in terms of it's chart.I can't believe we're near £1.56 .When I look at all the bloated overblown stocks in the FTSE 350,some of the best have been smashed over the last year and the likes of WTB,CCL,IHG remain relatively untouched.

I'm already short some of the UK builders Barnsey,but if you have any shorting ideas in terms of the USA then feel free to pop them on the Big Short thread.

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500

Dow and S&P holding on today so we may get a bounce.My shorter term charts are indicating a bounce-although I never trade them.I could do with a bounce as a few more stocks have run across my long term indicators and onto my imminent short list.Never like adding shorts on a red day,same as I don't like adding longs on a green day

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sancho panza

Hammerson offloading it's Leicester shopping assets..............tells you all you need to know about the prospects for both Hammerson and Leicester imho...

The sucker is a Japanese bank that's clearly not been into the shopping centre lately.Possibly the loneliest John Lewis you'll ever shop in-(Mrs P makes me go there shopping for prams and baby stuff before any insults start flying)

If they close quickly enough they'll get the last payment from Debenhams.:ph34r:

https://uk.webfg.com/news/market-report-close/london-close--3526303.html

'Hammerson advanced after agreeing to sell its 50% stake in the Highcross shopping centre in Leicester for £236m, while Acacia Mining rallied as lifted its full-year gold production target following better-than-expected third-quarter output.'

 

https://www.egi.co.uk/news/hammerson-closes-in-on-240m-highcross-sale/

'The investor, fronted by M&G Real Estate, is paying close to £240m for the half-share of the 1m sq ft mall in an off-market deal. The price being paid reflects a yield of around 5.5%.'

 

 

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10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They think higher rates will increase costs and that a big divi cut is needed.They dont understand that any price increases (every telco will be increasing prices in the next cycle) flow straight to free cash flow.The likes of VOD are very well set for the next cycle as prices increase thanks to inflation while depreciation is set or falling.They are making calls based on the deflation cycle being endless when it is already over,just a debt deflation to finish it.As ever we cant know the bottom on any stocks so a stair case buying is always the prudent way.

Noticed today as well the global warming report.Pressing clean energy,public transport and smart cities.All of this will help drive the reflation and give governments the excuse they need to print and invest.Transport,clean energy,telcos and silver for me and slowly adding into them.(apart from silver and the miners where im already loaded).

Bingo!

IMG_20181009_075707.thumb.jpg.71b19cd4cdbc9747f3088e58f3328af2.jpg

https://www.peterlbrandt.com/an-interest-rate-generational-low/

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'm already short some of the UK builders Barnsey,but if you have any shorting ideas in terms of the USA then feel free to pop them on the Big Short thread.

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-30

https://www.investing.com/indices/us-spx-500

Dow and S&P holding on today so we may get a bounce.My shorter term charts are indicating a bounce-although I never trade them.I could do with a bounce as a few more stocks have run across my long term indicators and onto my imminent short list.Never like adding shorts on a red day,same as I don't like adding longs on a green day

1st point - might be a bit late to short them @sancho panza but I'd look at Lennar and MDC holdings, both do big business in Denver and wider Colorado which really seems to be catching a cold.

2nd point - The consensus amongst those I follow does suggest a suckers rally up to 3000 before the bust next Summer, huge variables of course, ironically it's the strong dollar that's supporting stocks right now, subsidised by tax cuts, along with GDP being *temporarily* supported by massive inventory build up ahead of increased tariffs taking effect.

Final note, currently the Dec hike and two further hikes in 2019 are priced in. 

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Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 323.57p14.83 (4.38%)

 

Royal mail how low can it go, actually never thought about royal mail until mentioned in this thread but watching how much its dropped its amazing to watch 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 323.57p14.83 (4.38%)

 

Royal mail how low can it go, actually never thought about royal mail until mentioned in this thread but watching how much its dropped its amazing to watch 

Now below it's floatation of 330p, a key psychological support. Interesting one to watch

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34 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 323.57p14.83 (4.38%)

 

Royal mail how low can it go, actually never thought about royal mail until mentioned in this thread but watching how much its dropped its amazing to watch 

  

 

I think they've mucked up the free shares worker incentive.

If you buy shares at 330 then you might want to hold on a 10% recovery is highly significant, but if you're given £1.5k you probably don't care that much about it possibly being £1.6k (or possibly not) -- you'll just take the cash right now thank you.

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4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Just bought some more VOD at 152, would have been rude not to, really taking a battering

Some big moves in the FTSE.Noticed BAT tobacco down now 30% from its highs.Considering where sterling is some of these high free cash blue chips are down 50%.

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God I wish I had more money. It would be a real hard sell telling our lass that I’ve stopped saving for a deposit because I spend a lot of time reading about the economy and want to buy shares in Vodafone. I need to get her on side here.

Already need to figure out how to tell her why I’m invested in the likes of Wesdome Gold Mines, a Toronto based exploration and mining company. She just thinks I’m reading about football :D

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