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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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leonardratso
1 minute ago, Lavalas said:

God I wish I had more money. It would be a real hard sell telling our lass that I’ve stopped saving for a deposit because I spend a lot of time reading about the economy and want to buy shares in Vodafone. I need to get her on side here.

Already need to figure out how to tell her why I’m invested in the likes of Wesdome Gold Mines, a Toronto based exploration and mining company. She just thinks I’m reading about football :D

just lie, it always works.

 

Until it doesnt.

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32 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

God I wish I had more money. It would be a real hard sell telling our lass that I’ve stopped saving for a deposit because I spend a lot of time reading about the economy and want to buy shares in Vodafone. I need to get her on side here.

In the same boat, investing primarily using earned overtime, house deposit saving from basic salary. Not brave enough to get involved in the miners but tempted to invest in an all commodities etf, just need to find one

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sancho panza
14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

They think higher rates will increase costs and that a big divi cut is needed.They dont understand that any price increases (every telco will be increasing prices in the next cycle) flow straight to free cash flow.The likes of VOD are very well set for the next cycle as prices increase thanks to inflation while depreciation is set or falling.They are making calls based on the deflation cycle being endless when it is already over,just a debt deflation to finish it.As ever we cant know the bottom on any stocks so a stair case buying is always the prudent way.

Noticed today as well the global warming report.Pressing clean energy,public transport and smart cities.All of this will help drive the reflation and give governments the excuse they need to print and invest.Transport,clean energy,telcos and silver for me and slowly adding into them.(apart from silver and the miners where im already loaded).

Vod are also well set to pay divi's through the bear.Down again today......in other news Howdens getting tiped in a transactionless hosuing market by one of the Moneyweek bods and their property round table nearly universally calling hosue prices flat or higher over the next five years.

 

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

1st point - might be a bit late to short them @sancho panza but I'd look at Lennar and MDC holdings, both do big business in Denver and wider Colorado which really seems to be catching a cold.

2nd point - The consensus amongst those I follow does suggest a suckers rally up to 3000 before the bust next Summer, huge variables of course, ironically it's the strong dollar that's supporting stocks right now, subsidised by tax cuts, along with GDP being *temporarily* supported by massive inventory build up ahead of increased tariffs taking effect.

Final note, currently the Dec hike and two further hikes in 2019 are priced in. 

Cheers barnsey.At the mo I'm concentrating on the UK as I think the FTSE won't go much further north.Waiting for the US until I'm sure it's turned.One of my favourite prospective shorts-Boeing has jsut hit another all time high.Azzuri has offered some good ideas eg Denny's/Snapchat/Tesla.There's loads to go at when the market turns,it's jsut sifting the best options

image.png.b0ef77c88850318e89fcc6c3edc85e9e.png

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sancho panza
2 hours ago, dgul said:

I think they've mucked up the free shares worker incentive.

If you buy shares at 330 then you might want to hold on a 10% recovery is highly significant, but if you're given £1.5k you probably don't care that much about it possibly being £1.6k (or possibly not) -- you'll just take the cash right now thank you.

Volatile chart in many ways but it's a bit like BT,at the right price,it's dirt cheap.I think the number of firms in the field will shrink over the next few years,RM will still be aroun.d.

image.png.73263bd20d54e4f55bb2ff16d5043a2f.png

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some big moves in the FTSE.Noticed BAT tobacco down now 30% from its highs.Considering where sterling is some of these high free cash blue chips are down 50%.

Some great sterling hedges have got even cheaper.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

In the same boat, investing primarily using earned overtime, house deposit saving from basic salary. Not brave enough to get involved in the miners but tempted to invest in an all commodities etf, just need to find one

Blackrock have a mining investment trust. It’s pretty volatile. Sort of thing if we did have a bust I’d pile into.

https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/investment-trusts/our-range/blackrock-world-mining-investment-trust/performance-holdings

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

In the same boat, investing primarily using earned overtime, house deposit saving from basic salary. Not brave enough to get involved in the miners but tempted to invest in an all commodities etf, just need to find one

Same here re overtime, bonus, that type of thing. You could say brave with regards to the miners, reckless might be more apt but I do intend to make things a bit more sensible over time. The exploration and mining companies really fascinate me though so trying my luck despite it all (often quite literally) being a bit Wild West.

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15 hours ago, leonardratso said:

 im just a tight miserable old bastard.

I am.

 

You'll fit right into this forum, kind of your spiritual home then :)

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Just now, Lavalas said:

Same here re overtime, bonus, that type of thing. You could say brave with regards to the miners, reckless might be more apt but I do intend to make things a bit more sensible over time. The exploration and mining companies really fascinate me though so trying my luck despite it all (often quite literally) being a bit Wild West.

Im starting work on monday and 90% of the reason is to pile more into the miners,silver and other next cycle stocks ;).Way i see it im happy to give up a years labour and pile the lot into these hated sectors.Il be saving 100% of the salary.I have very strict allocation rules i set myself and im at the level for PMs,so the extra can be extra on top,if they went to zero iv lost a year getting off my sofa,but i reckon il turn a years labour into a lot more.

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leonardratso
1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im starting work on monday and 90% of the reason is to pile more into the miners,silver and other next cycle stocks ;).Way i see it im happy to give up a years labour and pile the lot into these hated sectors.Il be saving 100% of the salary.I have very strict allocation rules i set myself and im at the level for PMs,so the extra can be extra on top,if they went to zero iv lost a year getting off my sofa,but i reckon il turn a years labour into a lot more.

steady now, the activity of getting off the sofa might make you live longer. Means even more yellow sticker trawling and freezer packing.

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sancho panza
29 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Blackrock have a mining investment trust. It’s pretty volatile. Sort of thing if we did have a bust I’d pile into.

https://www.blackrock.com/uk/individual/products/investment-trusts/our-range/blackrock-world-mining-investment-trust/performance-holdings

Volatility related most likely to the 50% in 6 stocks that are relatively high in their charts.

BLT,Rio,Vale,Glencore,First Quantum and Teck

 

 

Times are getting hard..

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/eye-newsflash-foxtons-shutting-flagship-park-lane-branch/

'Foxtons is closing its flagship central London office in Park Lane.

The Mayfair branch, in one  of London’s swankiest addresses, is rumoured to cost some £2m in rent a year. Staff will be re-locating from the office, a neighbour of London’s most famous hotels, to Marylebone.'

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Just now, leonardratso said:

steady now, the activity of getting off the sofa might make you live longer. Means even more yellow sticker trawling and freezer packing.

Iv filled freezer no 3 already .xD

 

Just now, sancho panza said:

My neighbour works for them.In her 50s,big mortgage still (80k).Likely the contract she works on would be taken over by the government though so the would likely keep her job.Those companies are ran on crazy low margins considering the risk they take,and no doubt they havent priced in inflation moving up.

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18 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

About phone companies, I pay for sim only £13

but I have a friend who is with Vodafone and has a monthly sim with upgrade crap always getting a new phone for him and his partner kids iPads have sims too spending £200-£230 roughly a month with Vodafone I nearly choked on my beer, also he said it as if it was normal

 

Not the reason I'm buying Vodafone by the way just a weird conversation i had

Vodafone do sneaky things like adding on 'free' extras (e.g. their online 'safety' filter thing) as a 3 month free trial which then starts to charge if you forget to cancel it. As its only £1 a month its often missed.

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My neighbour works for them.In her 50s,big mortgage still (80k).

80k.. 😂 

i wish I could get a house with 80k.. I would have to borrow 300k which is not possible even on my above average salary.. I’m a slave to BTLeech until the house prices drop! Or those lotto numbers come up! 🙈

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15 minutes ago, macca said:

80k.. 😂 

i wish I could get a house with 80k.. I would have to borrow 300k which is not possible even on my above average salary.. I’m a slave to BTLeech until the house prices drop! Or those lotto numbers come up! 🙈

And this is why the Tory party are doomed.

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5 minutes ago, Banned said:

And this is why the Tory party are doomed.

I hope so.. the damage they are doing to our economy and future prosperity is massive.. I’m not sure the alternative is great but unless we try we will never know.. 

the status quo has to end.. protecting the rich and pillaging the young and working poor is not the solution.. 

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leonardratso
3 minutes ago, macca said:

I hope so.. the damage they are doing to our economy and future prosperity is massive.. I’m not sure the alternative is great but unless we try we will never know.. 

the status quo has to end.. protecting the rich and pillaging the young and working poor is not the solution.. 

it worked fine for centuries, since most tory's seem to remember it as if it was yesterday, then i dont see why it cant always work.

 

 

until it doesnt of course.

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16 minutes ago, macca said:

I hope so.. the damage they are doing to our economy and future prosperity is massive.. I’m not sure the alternative is great but unless we try we will never know.. 

the status quo has to end.. protecting the rich and pillaging the young and working poor is not the solution.. 

Yes, at one time theyd would give workers a few crumbs from the table, reckon that might happen under the other lot as they realise its gone to far.

This is a search ive just done in an 10 miles area from near to where i used to live. £250,000 gets you a 2 bed council house in the shittest parts of town or a 3 bed in need or 30k spending on it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1130&maxPrice=250000&radius=10.0&sortType=6&propertyTypes=bungalow%2Cdetached%2Cland%2Csemi-detached%2Cterraced&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&includeSSTC=true

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1 hour ago, Banned said:

Yes, at one time theyd would give workers a few crumbs from the table, reckon that might happen under the other lot as they realise its gone to far.

This is a search ive just done in an 10 miles area from near to where i used to live. £250,000 gets you a 2 bed council house in the shittest parts of town or a 3 bed in need or 30k spending on it.
https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/find.html?locationIdentifier=REGION^1130&maxPrice=250000&radius=10.0&sortType=6&propertyTypes=bungalow%2Cdetached%2Cland%2Csemi-detached%2Cterraced&maxDaysSinceAdded=1&includeSSTC=true

£300k gets you these near me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50305137.html

 

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16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I always thought Bishop Auckland was a fairly upmarket plae to live.

Thats the prices houses would be in the south in interest rates were a couple of percent above inflation, QE never existed and all the other props were removed... inc IO BTL mortgages.

Bit of fraud going on with the last sold price

Year Sold Sold Price
2002 £11,500
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