Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Shame its so fucking cold and damp up there.

Quite dry up this side of the Pennine's its the west of the north that wet.It does get cold in winter,but nothing to worry about.Quality of life is superb up here really all things considered.

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Genuinely shocked.  Something's just gotta break sometime!

These are what you get for around £165k,i guess they would be £400k down south?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66639334.html

Those were built just before new houses got shit (mid/late 90s).Plenty of room around the houses,green gardens etc.Id say they are over priced by about £30k if you roll back to the £75k they went for new,but still decent value for a home to live in.

[Bear Hug]

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These are what you get for around £165k,i guess they would be £400k down south?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66639334.html

Those were built just before new houses got shit (mid/late 90s).Plenty of room around the houses,green gardens etc.Id say they are over priced by about £30k if you roll back to the £75k they went for new,but still decent value for a home to live in.

Probably a bit more than £400k.  With recent very warm summers, going North seems like a good idea.  

[Barnsey]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

£300k gets you these near me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50305137.html

 

Just shows that if you don't have to be south of Birmingham then it's time to get out, whilst I'm still renting in London I'm now applying for jobs north of Birmingham. The entire south is high immigration, foreign speculation, high paying avg jobs and rich retirees (BOMAD equity release), all adds up to the completely insane prices everywhere, not considered a sustainable market. 

I'm also aware of my need/desire to buy late 2020ish, risk minimised buying North where areas have appreciated +10-20% in latest cycle vs 50%+ in south. Hopefully (inevitably) see a drop before buying, using the dire situation to grab a "bargain" (three D's), but understand high inflation will likely continue to suppress house prices over following 5+ years. 7+ year fix essential hopefully still at "stimulus" rates, just need to ensure modest LTV, aim to pay off in full by end of fix. It's just trying to find the right job in a reasonably well connected location that's always the problem.

[macca]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

£300k gets you these near me.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-50305137.html

 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48576309

it buys a flat where I live in an undesirable location.. although this believe it or not is a lower price than 1 year ago as prices are softening from what I can see.. 

this is what I’m hoping to buy if the prices drop.. 

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/46989108

and this is how greedy some people are

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/49076399

[sleepwello'nights]

1 minute ago, macca said:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48576309

it buys a flat where I live in an undesirable location.. although this believe it or not is a lower price than 1 year ago as prices are softening from what I can see.. 

 

1 minute ago, macca said:

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/48576309

it buys a flat where I live in an undesirable location.. although this believe it or not is a lower price than 1 year ago as prices are softening from what I can see.. 

Handy for Heathrow though and easily commutable into central London.

 

[MrXxx]

7 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Volatility related most likely to the 50% in 6 stocks that are relatively high in their charts.

BLT,Rio,Vale,Glencore,First Quantum and Teck

 

 

Times are getting hard..

https://www.propertyindustryeye.com/eye-newsflash-foxtons-shutting-flagship-park-lane-branch/

'Foxtons is closing its flagship central London office in Park Lane.

The Mayfair branch, in one  of London’s swankiest addresses, is rumoured to cost some £2m in rent a year. Staff will be re-locating from the office, a neighbour of London’s most famous hotels, to Marylebone.'

So does that mean that they will be downsizing from their fleet of corporate Mini`s to pushbikes then?...perhaps they will all be supplied with Team Foxton`s stretch lycra shorts as well? :-) :-) :-)

[macca]

4 minutes ago, sleepwello'nights said:

 

Handy for Heathrow though and easily commutable into central London.

 

Handy if you like the taste of jet fuel.. 😂

good for London yes.. 

but the prices are stupid! 

I have 3 kids so I’m renting a house with a garden.. seeing 1000’s of £s of my wages buy my landlords new Range Rover makes me sick.. 

physically, I’m on anti depressants, the wife works 3 jobs I do night shifts so have to do all the household work as well.. I can’t work like this for much longer.. it’s killing me.. 

today my landlord asked to put my rent up.. 

my landlord does not work.. 

[Agent ZigZag]

14 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Just shows that if you don't have to be south of Birmingham then it's time to get out, whilst I'm still renting in London I'm now applying for jobs north of Birmingham.

I am very optimistic about the North and if this thread plays out I can see the North outperforming the South or at least a partial rebalance. If there is an infrastructure drive then a triangle between the two ports of Liverpool to Hull and from Birmingham to Leeds I can see doing very well.

If we take one of the favoured shares Drax mentioned on this thread, the wood pellets are imported from Canada to the docks at Liverpool. The port does not have the capacity to then transport the increasing volume of Bio Mass by train to the power station. So what are they doing. Peel Holdings are pushing ahead with significantly expanding the port. In addition they will need to expand the rail terminal at the port and beyond. All of this will require Private and Government collaboration as well as a skilled and semi skilled workforce to implement. The southern ports are significantly over congested with poor transport links to the North were over half the products are destined. I therefore see a big drive for cargo to be delivered nearer its end destination with carbon footprints an important factor in future decision making. Good look Barnsey in your career move I wish you well

[sleepwello'nights]

7 minutes ago, macca said:

I have 3 kids so I’m renting a house with a garden.. seeing 1000’s of £s of my wages buy my landlords new Range Rover makes me sick.. 

physically, I’m on anti depressants, the wife works 3 jobs I do night shifts so have to do all the household work as well.. I can’t work like this for much longer.. it’s killing me.. 

today my landlord asked to put my rent up.. 

 

I was only being facetious. Sorry.

You need a rethink. We only have one life and it sure ain't worth going through misery just to get by.

You don't have to accept a rent increase, just point out that any increase he asks for could be wiped out and more by a void of as little as one month.  

[Agent ZigZag]

8 minutes ago, macca said:

 

I have 3 kids so I’m renting a house with a garden.. seeing 1000’s of £s of my wages buy my landlords new Range Rover makes me sick.. 

physically, I’m on anti depressants, the wife works 3 jobs I do night shifts so have to do all the household work as well.. I can’t work like this for much longer.. it’s killing me.. 

today my landlord asked to put my rent up.. 

my landlord does not work.. 

Felt sad reading this as it has a perverse back to front outlook that faced many young people in the 70s and 80s in the North that were depressed through long term structural unemployment. The solution meant they had to leave their family in search of work in the South. This in turn broke up family structure and community. Moving 40 years on it is not work you are in search of but security of a roof over your family. This may push you up North to seek a solution to your problem and hopefully contentment.

[ashestoashes]

49 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

These are what you get for around £165k,i guess they would be £400k down south?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66639334.html

Those were built just before new houses got shit (mid/late 90s).Plenty of room around the houses,green gardens etc.Id say they are over priced by about £30k if you roll back to the £75k they went for new,but still decent value for a home to live in.

near a river and just across from a rougher estate judging by the horses grazing at the side of the road

[Harley]

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Some big moves in the FTSE.Noticed BAT tobacco down now 30% from its highs.Considering where sterling is some of these high free cash blue chips are down 50%.

Loving it.  An analyst's party time.  Like the QE induced coma is over and the old techniques have a chance to shine.  Majoring on FCF, debt, cover, and low/zero buy backs.  Nuggets out there against the potential WMD of index tracker funds (apparently only the retail investors are in, at least the US, right now).  Hoping it's like the tech bubble when the likes of Walmart and Coke were ignored.  Index-FANG, and one-shot tax and buy backs are hiding a bit of a mess.  The unloved FTSE is looking like a possible safe(r) heaven.  Stocking up on sound and OK positioned div players (with a surprising number of emerging technical buy signals), with a bit of sector rotation, etc.  Looking at 2009, 10, 11, 13, etc prices in some places and many of my March low purchases are being revisited in price terms.  Fine for a high yield portfolio.  PMs moving too (great hedge?) so might try the btard miners again (trade only)!  Again, like the index funds, GDX (yes I mean GDX!) just not cutting it viz the underlying movements.  It's too concentrated - need to go deeper and pick.  Really off the fund/ETF types generally both performance/constituent wise and because I fear counterparty, etc issues should we get a serious downturn. 

[MrXxx]

7 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Felt sad reading this as it has a perverse back to front outlook that faced many young people in the 70s and 80s in the North that were depressed through long term structural unemployment. The solution meant they had to leave their family in search of work in the South. This in turn broke up family structure and community. Moving 40 years on it is not work you are in search of but security of a roof over your family. This may push you up North to seek a solution to your problem and hopefully contentment.

I have thought about this situation before living in the SE..there is a cost/benefit point where all the extra you are earning in the South is paying for the higher housing costs (either buying or renting) so it makes sense to move northwards...in fact it can even result in a situation where you think "I can stay in the SE but to finally be mortgage free I will have to work up to 65, or alternatively I can move northwards, be in the same financial position but retire 10 years earlier"...is the glitz of the South really worth those extra 10 years?!

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Quality of life is superb up here really all things considered. 

I have one foot down London way and the other a good three hours drive away.  The difference in the quality of life is amazing but maybe depends on my time of life.  Love the buzz and (compared to decades ago) modernity of London but a bit like a fizzy drink - just a dose before the rose tints fall off.  It just feels like something's going to break when out in the suburbs watching all those Range Rovers, etc.

[macca]

2 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I have thought about this situation before living in the SE..there is a cost/benefit point where all the extra you are earning in the South is paying for the higher housing costs (either buying or renting) so it makes sense to move northwards...in fact it can even result in a situation where you think "I can stay in the SE but to finally be mortgage free I will have to work up to 65, or alternatively I can move northwards, be in the same financial position but retire 10 years earlier"...is the glitz of the South really worth those extra 10 years?!

Just need to stay until my great auntie and gran move on from this life.. 

I do jobs for them, shopping, repairs, decorating.. anything they need.. 

once they pass on I am free to do what I like..the Mrs parents live round the corner so it’s a bit tricky as she wants to stay near her mum and brother.. plus we both have jobs here..

[MrXxx]

2 minutes ago, macca said:

Just need to stay until my great auntie and gran move on from this life.. 

I do jobs for them, shopping, repairs, decorating.. anything they need.. 

once they pass on I am free to do what I like..the Mrs parents live round the corner so it’s a bit tricky as she wants to stay near her mum and brother.. plus we both have jobs here..

House with a Granny flat/annexe...you wouldn't be able to afford it in the South but maybe you could do up North?

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

These are what you get for around £165k,i guess they would be £400k down south?

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-66639334.html

Those were built just before new houses got shit (mid/late 90s).Plenty of room around the houses,green gardens etc.Id say they are over priced by about £30k if you roll back to the £75k they went for new,but still decent value for a home to live in.

It that half the building or the full house!  Just like your last photo, to which I was going to ask which flat in the building was going for the £300k!  Absolutely right about the massive change in build quality and it's timing.  It's not just a price thing.  Hell, some people don't even own the freehold!  Renovate the 90's ones is the way to go (subject to it not looking odd on an estate).  Something else I noticed is how tidy and presentable the houses look compared to the ones I've seen down south.  Maybe the room size helps.  Maybe relatively more disposable income!   

[Lavalas]

58 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

I am very optimistic about the North and if this thread plays out I can see the North outperforming the South or at least a partial rebalance. If there is an infrastructure drive then a triangle between the two ports of Liverpool to Hull and from Birmingham to Leeds I can see doing very well.

If we take one of the favoured shares Drax mentioned on this thread, the wood pellets are imported from Canada to the docks at Liverpool. The port does not have the capacity to then transport the increasing volume of Bio Mass by train to the power station. So what are they doing. Peel Holdings are pushing ahead with significantly expanding the port. In addition they will need to expand the rail terminal at the port and beyond. All of this will require Private and Government collaboration as well as a skilled and semi skilled workforce to implement. The southern ports are significantly over congested with poor transport links to the North were over half the products are destined. I therefore see a big drive for cargo to be delivered nearer its end destination with carbon footprints an important factor in future decision making. Good look Barnsey in your career move I wish you well

In a rare case of the government trying to facilitate growth in the north they want to build the Port of Liverpool road which would support the Peel Holdings expansion. Problem being the locals don’t want it because it cuts through their park and because the port is so heavily automated they don’t really see the employment benefits. The council basically don’t want anything from the Tories. I’m guessing they’ll all change their tune when the roads are clogged up.

Hopefully more to come, as you say.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Just shows that if you don't have to be south of Birmingham then it's time to get out, whilst I'm still renting in London I'm now applying for jobs north of Birmingham

I rented down south, bought elsewhere, earnt my money through work rather than speculation at someone else's expense, and would have totally given up the renting if my wife had a client based job like mine.  Best strategy I ever came up with.  Having a job (e.g. national consulting, sales, etc) where you can live anywhere is brilliant.  Sure you need to travel and maybe stay away but you have a long term base with incredible value for money and prospects.  It feels good that you can travel and engage but always retreat back to your bolt hole.  Just seems the right way round.  We used to get retirees in our rural area but seem to get more people who work away for say 3 days (two nights) a week and from home the rest of the time.  I recently saw an interesting and worthwhile part-time research type job working from home for £30k ish with occasional exciting trips to meet up.  I would not have looked at that before at all but the effective salary was actually quite high.  No costs, no commute, etc.  I hope we'll see the back of the clock watching HR types and ego centric managers with no actual management skills who want/need to see you in the office all the time.  Make them do their jobs and focus on actual performance and delivery.  

[Band]

1 hour ago, macca said:

I have 3 kids so I’m renting a house with a garden.. seeing 1000’s of £s of my wages buy my landlords new Range Rover makes me sick.. 

Little victories but the first one beats the latter. I wish you well.

[sancho panza]

 

1 hour ago, macca said:

and this is how greedy some people are

https://www.zoopla.co.uk/for-sale/details/49076399

Surreal........£475k for a tiny 3 bed semi under the flight path......................madness

1 hour ago, macca said:

Handy if you like the taste of jet fuel.. 😂

good for London yes.. 

but the prices are stupid! 

I have 3 kids so I’m renting a house with a garden.. seeing 1000’s of £s of my wages buy my landlords new Range Rover makes me sick.. 

physically, I’m on anti depressants, the wife works 3 jobs I do night shifts so have to do all the household work as well.. I can’t work like this for much longer.. it’s killing me.. 

today my landlord asked to put my rent up.. 

my landlord does not work.. 

You need to get on the benefits if you can.We've discussed this on here before,but really shows how in huge parts of the country you're mad to work.Woprking three jobs to live when there's people polling up and getting ev erything for free....

 

If you get sickness benefit it gets added to your UB I believe.

DB would know how to do it.See your Dr tell him you've got  a bad back ....

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Interesting article on the next crisis

https://amp.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/we-don-t-have-any-strategy-to-deal-with-it-experts-warn-next-recession-could-rival-the-great-depression-20180917-p5046e.html

Strange,there's been a few shows on TV lately talking over the ashes of Lehmans.ANd then the 'The bank that nearly broke Britain' piece on last night on BBC2 talking over how Alistair Darling and Merv the Swerve saved the world by getting the UK taxpayer cheque book out.TIt was like we had no choice.

Reality is that they didn't avoid a Great Depression,they just delayed it by ten years and made it worse.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, ashestoashes said:

near a river and just across from a rougher estate judging by the horses grazing at the side of the road

The river is only small and the estate isnt that rough and only small.I live on a private estate next to what is supposed to be a rough estate,iv never had any trouble in 20 years.Iv always found most people are fine with you if you are fine with them.There are lots of gypsy horses up here,always have been,see them out all the time on their little traps.

[Chewing Grass]

31 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Strange,there's been a few shows on TV lately talking over the ashes of Lehmans.ANd then the 'The bank that nearly broke Britain' piece on last night on BBC2 talking over how Alistair Darling and Merv the Swerve saved the world by getting the UK taxpayer cheque book out.TIt was like we had no choice.

Reality is that they didn't avoid a Great Depression,they just delayed it by ten years and made it worse.

"We have no ability to turn the economy around," said Martin Feldstein, president of the US National Bureau of Economic Research.

'Professor Feldstein, a former chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisors, described a bleak scenario more akin to the depressions of the 1870s or the Thirties than anything experienced in the post-war era.'

Bank is currently pushing personal loans at 3.1% for between 7500-25000, over the last year I could have played stocks with it and made 5% over but I can't be arsed.

Its like giving your mate a grand and saying pay me back this time next year and bung me 30 quid on top, why bother.

Its like they (TPTB) have spent a whole weekend in a whore house and jizzed themselves so dry and there is no more fun to be had.