Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Stuffed said:

Article about how ETFs might perform when everyone heads for the exits...

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-09-11/not-grounded-reality-blackrock-responds-alarm-over-etf-market-fragility

 

Puplava mentioned three providers account for 88% of US ETFs.

https://static1.financialsense.com/broadcast/fsn2018-0728-2.mp3

From 31:33:

- Passive index funds bubble

- Financial concentration implies no liquidity

- More US ETFs today than stocks!

- $half trillion buy backs per year

- Money market funds can now legally "break the buck"

Looks like the next downturn will stress the ETF providers, etc unlike the banks last time.  A lot more at stake this time (equity) but can the government just let asset prices correct this time and let the investor take the fall?  No bail outs for the retail investor?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

China Stockmarket now at 4 year low, down 16% this year..

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-11/hong-kong-stock-market-woes-worsen-with-tech-luxury-selloff?srnd=premium-asia

And VIX took a huge 44% leap up..

 

Yeah Asia took a good beating overnight, all about Europe this morning to show how the week may end. Black Thursday/Friday or panic over perhaps?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Barnsey said:

The £ was always going to recover this winter as we got closer to Brexit. Brexit being perceived as a complete disaster, there being 'no deal' in place, and the UK economy tanking as a result of the potential of no deal, have all been priced in for the last 18 months. Now that it's getting closer to the UK actually leaving, and getting closer to a deal being reached, the £ is slowly recovering. It'll be ups and downs between now and next summer I expect, but I think it'll recover further versus the Euro.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

The £ was always going to recover this winter as we got closer to Brexit. Brexit being perceived as a complete disaster, there being 'no deal' in place, and the UK economy tanking as a result of the potential of no deal, have all been priced in for the last 18 months. Now that it's getting closer to the UK actually leaving, and getting closer to a deal being reached, the £ is slowly recovering. It'll be ups and downs between now and next summer I expect, but I think it'll recover further versus the Euro.

Agreed, I think the Euro is really vulnerable in the upcoming few months

Edit: the immediacy of agreement with Barnier seemingly by next week is telling, they want the UK trading partnership to remain in tact prior to the eurozone chaos breakout. IMF warning regarding Spain seemed to get lost in the ether, along with DAX breaking down through its head and shoulders bounce.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far the biggest drop on the FTSE100 is Barratt ,the share Woodford has being buying like mad the last few months,the biggest increase (one of a couple) Randgold :D.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

So far the biggest drop on the FTSE100 is Barratt ,the share Woodford has being buying like mad the last few months,the biggest increase (one of a couple) Randgold :D.

BDEV is ex-dividend today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

BDEV is ex-dividend today.

So it is,so only down 15p.Hargreave's usually shows them without the divi counting,but looks like they have missed the special and only taken the ordinary in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

So it is,so only down 15p.Hargreave's usually shows them without the divi counting,but looks like they have missed the special and only taken the ordinary in.

Funnily enough the 2nd biggest dropper on HL's own FTSE heat map is themselves but they are also ex-dividend today.

A sea of red so far

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Barnsey said:

Might see some reflation stock bargains, get those price alerts set up! Centrica at 147

They are ex divi as well today.It will be interesting to see how much we lose compared to the US through the bear.I think likely we only see 1% for each 3% down in the US.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Funnily enough the 2nd biggest dropper on HL's own FTSE heat map is themselves but they are also ex-dividend today.

A sea of red so far

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

Gold ,fags up xD. Notice @sancho panza short call looking good on WHsmith,they getting whacked.Lots of profit warnings out there and companies having to really tighten the ship.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

They are ex divi as well today.It will be interesting to see how much we lose compared to the US through the bear.I think likely we only see 1% for each 3% down in the US.

Interesting because I'm looking for safe havens but worry about the security of any ISA and SIPP cash balances.  And a bond or cash ETF is a worry given they are ETFs.  The FTSE has beeb beaten down a bit so maybe a fair shelter?  Anyone got any other ideas for shelters should we get a global correction?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Interesting because I'm looking for safe havens but worry about the security of any ISA and SIPP cash balances.  And a bond or cash ETF is a worry given they are ETFs.  The FTSE has beeb beaten down a bit so maybe a fair shelter?  Anyone got any other ideas for shelters should we get a global correction?

cash (less inflation).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting because I'm looking for safe havens but worry about the security of any ISA and SIPP cash balances.  And a bond or cash ETF is a worry given they are ETFs.  The FTSE has beeb beaten down a bit so maybe a fair shelter?  Anyone got any other ideas for shelters should we get a global correction?

what's your view on UK based OEIC's?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting because I'm looking for safe havens but worry about the security of any ISA and SIPP cash balances.  And a bond or cash ETF is a worry given they are ETFs.  The FTSE has beeb beaten down a bit so maybe a fair shelter?  Anyone got any other ideas for shelters should we get a global correction?

Cash balances should be fine up to £85k through FSCS, who are you with?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
31 minutes ago, Harley said:

Interesting because I'm looking for safe havens but worry about the security of any ISA and SIPP cash balances.  And a bond or cash ETF is a worry given they are ETFs.  The FTSE has beeb beaten down a bit so maybe a fair shelter?  Anyone got any other ideas for shelters should we get a global correction?

NS&I isn't subject to the £85k FSCS up to a £1m in Income Bonds or £2m in Direct Saver both easy access

https://www.nsandi.com/income-bonds

Returns below inflation but it should be returned!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

NS&I isn't subject to the £85k FSCS up to a £1m in Income Bonds or £2m in Direct Saver both easy access

https://www.nsandi.com/income-bonds

Returns below inflation but it should be returned!

The problem with that is I doubt he can extract money from his SIPP and would prefer not to from the ISA's.

Why not just buy bonds directly through your broker?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Cash balances should be fine up to £85k through FSCS, who are you with?

Does that apply to broker cash balances or just bank balances?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

The problem with that is I doubt he can extract money from his SIPP and would prefer not to from the ISA's.

Why not just buy bonds directly through your broker?

Correct.  Are you talking about buying bonds direct, no ETF or fund?  I could not find much with my broker.  Will look again though thanks.  Govt bonds only probably.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...