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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Correct.  Are you talking about buying bonds direct, no ETF or fund?  I could not find much with my broker.  Will look again though thanks.  Govt bonds only probably.

Yes correct. Depending on the broker you may have to phone them up and could be a charge levied with that. But some of the brokers allow you buy the gilts online through the platform. I have a tab where I can buy bonds & warrants. If I type gilt in I get lots of options. TBH I've not really explored buying them like this so don't fully understand.

eg TS19 United Kingdom 1.75% GILT 7/19. Bid 1.0063 Offer £1.0083.

So I assume 1.75% matures July 2019?

I know Fidielity does a cash fund in OEIC

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Quick look at the rubber band stocks put on here on October 3rd,

Harmony Gold,+7%

Tahoe Resources +8%

Eldorado Gold,+1% 

Alexco Resources,+1%

Sibanye,+2%

Endeavor Silver Corp,+2%

Avino Silver and Gold Mines -3%

First Majestic Silver,+2%

New Gold Inc -1% (the old dog)

Great Panther Silver +2%

I dont own all of those a couple are missing and the ones i do arent all equal holdings (Harmony and Endeavor 3x Sibanye and Great Panther etc) and im down on some and up on some as id expect.

Interesting to see how they do going forward,the rubber band stocks tend to inflict lots of pain still if the sector is in a bear,but outperform by a wide margin if the sector turns.That is not buy advice for any lurkers etc as its a sector where you must be prepared to lose a lot of capital.Just interesting to see how they do.Iv hedged with yellow stickers and a new (old) freezer.O.o

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14 minutes ago, Harley said:

Does that apply to broker cash balances or just bank balances?

 

7 minutes ago, harp said:

I need to know this as well. Anyone?

£50k with Brokers I believe but pleaes check/confirm

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15 minutes ago, Harley said:

Does that apply to broker cash balances or just bank balances?

Brokers split the cash balance among different banks so its best to ring them and ask for the split and how many banks.For instance if i had £50k in my HL account in cash and they had it in Barlcays thats no good if i also had £50k in my Barclays personal/sole trader account.They dont actually give out this information on the sites they just say " a spread of FSCS banks".So if its 5 banks is the £50k split equal or not etc?.Worth ringing to confirm or message them.If they say it changes all the time then for risk you would have to assume 100% was in any bank so youd have to add the total broker cash to any cash in each bank,so in the above id have to make sure i only ever had £35k in Barclays,just i case the brokers £50k was with them when everyones pants fell down.

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35 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

what's your view on UK based OEIC's?

I don't like anything between me and the underlying equity, pm, bond, etc.  I have to accept my broker and his registrar as I'm not sure Crest is still possible or practical. 

But I would rather avoid any more counterparties.  But have to be practical.  As I mentioned elsewhere, I have a HYP of equities which still has some diminishing legacy ETFs which is fine if I can find investment value.  I also have a combo investment fund (OEICs) and investment trust portfolio which I guess I'll have to live with but at leat I've derisked overall.  It's the cash, assuming its best to be out of the market, which is the worry.

BTW on OEICs, I read: "OEICs are not directly covered by the Financial Services Compensation Scheme - but their parent company will be. The maximum claim via the FSCS is £50,000 per person, per company, but remember this will not cover your investment losses, only if the company goes bust".

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brokers split the cash balance among different banks so its best to ring them and ask for the split and how many banks.For instance if i had £50k in my HL account in cash and they had it in Barlcays thats no good if i also had £50k in my Barclays personal/sole trader account.They dont actually give out this information on the sites they just say " a spread of FSCS banks".So if its 5 banks is the £50k split equal or not etc?.Worth ringing to confirm or message them.If they say it changes all the time then for risk you would have to assume 100% was in any bank so youd have to add the total broker cash to any cash in each bank,so in the above id have to make sure i only ever had £35k in Barclays,just i case the brokers £50k was with them when everyones pants fell down.

Thanks. I'll check with HL.
I know you start your job on Monday. Hope you had it written into your contract your 'right' to take time off to post on Dosbods a few times a day? :Old:

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31 minutes ago, Harley said:

Does that apply to broker cash balances or just bank balances?

Broker cash balances, depending on your broker. I'm currently with Interactive Investor and they have an FSCS guarantee for cash balances.

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1 minute ago, harp said:

Thanks. I'll check with HL.
I know you start your job on Monday. Hope you had it written into your contract your 'right' to take time off to post on Dosbods a few times a day? :Old:

I cant risk being sacked i need to pull the capital in as quickly as possible to deploy :ph34r:.

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52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Brokers split the cash balance among different banks so its best to ring them and ask for the split and how many banks.For instance if i had £50k in my HL account in cash and they had it in Barlcays thats no good if i also had £50k in my Barclays personal/sole trader account.They dont actually give out this information on the sites they just say " a spread of FSCS banks".So if its 5 banks is the £50k split equal or not etc?.Worth ringing to confirm or message them.If they say it changes all the time then for risk you would have to assume 100% was in any bank so youd have to add the total broker cash to any cash in each bank,so in the above id have to make sure i only ever had £35k in Barclays,just i case the brokers £50k was with them when everyones pants fell down.

Ta.  I read the HL stuff on this and to be fair they probably go as far as they can given they would be doing daily treasury money management work.  You are quite right about looking at your balances with any one bank across all accounts (bank, ISA, SIPP, etc).   

At least HL mentioned UK banks.  TD Waterhouse used their dutch bank which adds more complexity (covered by the dutch FSCS).  Better check all my brokers, etc.  

Then there are those accounts covered by the IOM and Channel Island FSCS type schemes.  These are small entities holding a lot of money - how viable will their schemes be?

What I'm not clear on is it £85k cover in your bank but only £50k on cash in your SIPP,  ISA, etc?  Or is that £50k cover just for your equity?  Or separate £50k cover for equity and £85k for cash?  And if the former (for cash as well) how does the £50k and £85k work in practice if you have money with the same bank inside and outside say a SIPP?

Something says we may all find out the hard way!

47 minutes ago, harp said:

Thanks. I'll check with HL.
I know you start your job on Monday. Hope you had it written into your contract your 'right' to take time off to post on Dosbods a few times a day? :Old:

We could make him a better offer to sit at home!  Maybe just send him a bag of metal each week?  We could get the Russian FSB to handle the drop!

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Probably one for the "Risk Management" topic but just to add I flag all holdings on my portfolio spreadsheet by institution (as well as currency, etc) just so I can review exposure per institution.  For example, a SIPP and ISA with the same broker, holdings with the same ETF provider, bank, etc in several accounts, and so on.

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Useful links but still some missing scenarios:

https://moneyweek.com/488411/paying-to-get-your-shares-back/

https://www.lovemoney.com/news/71562/isa-stocks-shares-safety-protection-limit-investments-broker-uk

https://media-prod.ii.co.uk/s3fs-public/pdfs/your_money_and_investments.pdf?HNZ1kOWKvx1IKE3qY_pUUcMBbkWXwwZF (a few worries reading that)

https://www.hl.co.uk/security-centre/how-safe-is-your-investment

Hats off to the two sample brokers above for being quite clear, not that many customers may do the due diligence.

I'll put all this in the boring "Financial Risk Management" topic for reference, down in the basement in "Investing and Money", to be ignored until TSHTF!

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It's FTSE March all over again!  Last bought big then, but should I buy now?

Capture.thumb.PNG.b29ee840e1f11b87187f31ac5b1e655d.PNG

Looks like we've been working down through a series of parallel trend lines and are back to close to long term support. 

That long term support goes back further than what the chart shows.

Note how we dipped below that support in March (running stops?). 

A good risk reward for buy to hold stocks or are we circling the bowl of the chasm below?

FWIW, note the rising MACD support line.

Place your bets ladies and gents!

FWIW, I haven't a clue!

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2 minutes ago, Harley said:

It's FTSE March all over again!  Last bought big then, but should I buy now?

Capture.thumb.PNG.b29ee840e1f11b87187f31ac5b1e655d.PNG

Looks like we've been working down through a series of parallel trend lines and are back to close to long term support. 

That long term support goes back further than what the chart shows.

Note how we dipped below that support in March (running stops?). 

A good risk reward for buy to hold stocks or are we circling the bowl of the chasm below?

FWIW, note the rising MACD support line.

Place your bets ladies and gents!

FWIW, I haven't a clue!

fifty fifty, better than the lottery.

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GBP:USD behaving itself and providing some good signals.

What's really interesting is how the RSI support trend was not confirming price until mid August (divergence).

Whatever that means!

Capture4.thumb.PNG.f2e484c6e695da07bdc3db4f3d426631.PNG

 

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Took delivery of my first 10 silver Britannias yesterday.  I'm way behind you lot but I think it may be time to open an HL ISA ac and start buying Vod/Centrica and the other stocks DB has mentioned as things seem to be on the turn.  Maybe this is the big one.

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1 minute ago, janch said:

Took delivery of my first 10 silver Britannias yesterday.  I'm way behind you lot but I think it may be time to open an HL ISA ac and start buying Vod/Centrica and the other stocks DB has mentioned as things seem to be on the turn.  Maybe this is the big one.

Congratulations.  Got my first sovs a week or so ago.  Bit smaller than I thought but feel great I finally did what I've been meaning to do for so long and have the process in place.  Wish the same could be said for the new bathroom!   

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26 minutes ago, Harley said:

Whatever that means!

Per Investopedia:

"Watching for divergence between price and the RSI indicator is another means of refining its application. Divergence occurs when a security makes a new high or low in price but the RSI does not make a corresponding new high or low value. Bearish divergence, when price makes a new high but the RSI does not, is taken as a sell signal. Bullish divergence, which is interpreted as a buy signal, occurs when price makes a new low, but the RSI value does not".

That would have been the 18 July 2018 then!

And now we have the 3 September and 3 October .

Not that one indicator makes a buy or sell signal.

Or indeed technical analysis has any worth!

Maybe it's all Brexit noise and the market now feels the deal has been done.

And/or something in the US.

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47 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Fresnillo has hit it out the park so far today, 7.75% daily rise in a £5Bn+ company is not to be sniffed at!

My no1 rubber band stock not doing too bad today.

https://www.google.co.uk/search?biw=1366&bih=626&ei=8UC_W9jjKcf6kwX1yqPoBw&q=JSE%3AHAR&oq=JSE%3AHAR&gs_l=psy-ab.12...0.0.0.1687.0.0.0.0.0.0.0.0..0.0....0...1c..64.psy-ab..0.0.0....0.19ZeZUnGcyA

 

 

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40 minutes ago, janch said:

Took delivery of my first 10 silver Britannias yesterday.  I'm way behind you lot but I think it may be time to open an HL ISA ac and start buying Vod/Centrica and the other stocks DB has mentioned as things seem to be on the turn.  Maybe this is the big one.

I bet it was a good feeling holding them right?.Beautiful they are.

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4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Quick look at the rubber band stocks put on here on October 3rd,.......

 

Thanks for the reminder as I question whether GDX (for example) is the right way to play this (high risk) market given it's odd spread of holdings (although it does track the XAU nicely).

That said, a bit of context:

Capture6.thumb.PNG.322a60b87570bc5db8da356e6b05d68b.PNG

GDX: Blue

GDXJ: Orange

Gold: Red

Definitely one for the traders.

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