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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Re the earlier comment about the pop in the VIX (always something to watch out for).

VIX in red, S&P in blue:

Capture9.thumb.PNG.3cde33a7eb51c0790d4f8a7e21f25ec0.PNG

Maybe more of a pullback right now BUT the action could always develop from here as in the run up to the 2009 crash.  It has also "staircased" up this year.

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47 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My no1 rubber band stock not doing too bad today.

10% now in New York, might have to treat myself to some more sovereigns if this run continues.  Converting PM miner profits into solid metal is my favourite way to earn wealth if you can get the buying/selling timing right!

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19 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

10% now in New York, might have to treat myself to some more sovereigns if this run continues.  Converting PM miner profits into solid metal is my favourite way to earn wealth if you can get the buying/selling timing right!

Simples....

image.png.c3230ea56dd0a0d2603d9542f5f6ca3a.png

image.png.dcb26da74b878b6ffb1c6d1af1d0001b.png

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Sibanye killing it as well, %12 on the day so far. I remember you seemed to like them :)

On the other hand, Tahoe cannot catch a bid on this massively green day. They had a press release pre-open about their legal issues in Guatemala advancing to another stage, but it looks like it still take some time before Escobal opens again.

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19 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Sibanye killing it as well, %12 on the day so far. I remember you seemed to like them :)

On the other hand, Tahoe cannot catch a bid on this massively green day. They had a press release pre-open about their legal issues in Guatemala advancing to another stage, but it looks like it still take some time before Escobal opens again.

Good job you put me off Tahoe,Harmony up  18% in South Africa :Beer: ,bit miffed with Endeavor Silver though its only up 4% and Majestic 5% .Now we will have to see if the massive net short in gold and silver holds its nerve and shorts more,or starts to throw the towel in.Those commercials who went net long for the first time ever will be asking for delivery.I went up the A1 to buy a £350 cross trainer for £50 off Gumtree (middle class women giving stuff away) and come back to some massive greens,.Could be a flash in the pan,but happy my rubber band work still looks like it works and shows the energy in these stocks when the sector turns.Profit taking will kick in of course and some who will be just glad to get out of the sector.

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3 hours ago, janch said:

Took delivery of my first 10 silver Britannias yesterday.  I'm way behind you lot but I think it may be time to open an HL ISA ac and start buying Vod/Centrica and the other stocks DB has mentioned as things seem to be on the turn.  Maybe this is the big one.

yaaay ! Congratulations ! I still need to buy !!! oh its difficult though as i have no proof of address here, only my passport as staying at parents for now... what ID did you need and where did you buy them ?

 

 

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17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Good job you put me off Tahoe,Harmony up  18% in South Africa :Beer: ,bit miffed with Endeavor Silver though its only up 4% and Majestic 5% .Now we will have to see if the massive net short in gold and silver holds its nerve and shorts more,or starts to throw the towel in.Those commercials who went net long for the first time ever will be asking for delivery.I went up the A1 to buy a £350 cross trainer for £50 off Gumtree (middle class women giving stuff away) and come back to some massive greens,.Could be a flash in the pan,but happy my rubber band work still looks like it works and shows the energy in these stocks when the sector turns.Profit taking will kick in of course and some who will be just glad to get out of the sector. 

It's a safe haven action, so it's probably reasonable that gold and it's miners are having a better time than silver.

Still, I'm rooting for Tahoe to get their act together before the proper silver bull - if they manage to do that, they could be my biggest play after the bust. I'd expect them to +50% overnight just on the Escobal reopening news.

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Just now, kibuc said:

It's a safe haven action, so it's probably reasonable that gold and it's miners are having a better time than silver.

Still, I'm rooting for Tahoe to get their act together before the proper silver bull - if they manage to do that, they could be my biggest play after the bust. I'd expect them to +50% overnight just on the Escobal reopening news.

Exactly,id gladly own them,my rubber band list picked them up and i simply buy from the list without questioning much,but i already owned 3/4s of the list and never buy the lot.Imagine Escobal at full production in a silver bull :o

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2 minutes ago, Mere mortal said:

yaaay ! Congratulations ! I still need to buy !!! oh its difficult though as i have no proof of address here, only my passport as staying at parents for now... what ID did you need and where did you buy them ?

ID? Not needed if you buy online. I pay by BACS and have them delivered to my work from coininvest.

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7 hours ago, Harley said:

Correct.  Are you talking about buying bonds direct, no ETF or fund?  I could not find much with my broker.  Will look again though thanks.  Govt bonds only probably.

Might be of interest @Harley

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/download/csv/tbLSEBondsDownloadCSV_en.csv

CSV file of retail gilts/bonds available on the LSE. Not sure if it's the full list, doesn't seem very large imo.

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UnconventionalWisdom
4 hours ago, janch said:

Took delivery of my first 10 silver Britannias yesterday.  I'm way behind you lot but I think it may be time to open an HL ISA ac and start buying Vod/Centrica and the other stocks DB has mentioned as things seem to be on the turn.  Maybe this is the big one.

I also got my first 20 britannias today- 3 family members have thier birthdays at the end of October so I thought they could have one each and I'd get my first lot. Be interesting to see their reaction.

Great to hold something that has been used as money for centuries and will almost certainly continue to for centuries to come.

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Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well it looks like gold got the haven bid! Sweet. I notice the Yuan is up today too...

Still wrestling with the position size problem. How low could gold silver and miners go in a full on crash? Think I mentioned before my views on 2008: there was capitulation selling in the last month as large investors ran out of assets to sell. But this time, no one owns gold (in the West) except us loonies and some smarter large investors. I don't see the same up down up this time...but @DurhamBorn TA and superb calls scare me...8 dollar silver will hurt.

Which of course means I should moderate my position size. But I also believe in investing more early in a big move (the whole you dont have to catch the exact bottom but you need to catch the early wave thing). Decisions, decisions...

Oil is getting hammered too, I'm glad I'm out of that. There is 10 year resistance in the high 80s, thatll take a while to break. I'm hearing alot of anecdotes from friends in the supermajors that there is no increased spending or hiring. Bob Dudley said as much today. My friends added that they are making a shitload of cash - they'd better hand it out as dividend!

At the moment it looks like gold and silver are seen as safe havens, and any stock market correction in the US hasn't really got going, I'd have thought the upside in metals would continue until we're well into the crash, I'd have thought capitulation selling of metals would be after we're say 25% down in the DOW.

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4 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Well today has certainly whet my appetite for a PM bull market. I could get used to seeing all that green.

Today marks the return to a profitable position (probably with about 5% gain) since I started to follow ToS deflation thread.

I am impressed how BT held up in all the turmoil this week and regret a not piling up another couple of thousands into the gold miners over the last couple of months.

 

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6 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Today marks the return to a profitable position (probably with about 5% gain) since I started to follow ToS deflation thread.

I am impressed how BT held up in all the turmoil this week and regret a not piling up another couple of thousands into the gold miners over the last couple of months.

 

The show is just getting started. I wouldn't be surprised we see a few more ups and downs before a big one strikes

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3 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

thought they could have one each and I'd get my first lot. Be interesting to see their reaction.

Ha.  Thought same thing for Christmas for the ones who have everything - something they won't lose!

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

"Wall Street plunges again as global market rout deepens..."

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/wall-street-plunges-again-global-194600046.html

Looking at the DOW 1 year chart this is a classic double top @JAN 22 2018 -> @17 SEPT - DOW 26,700 ...Oh boy would Jeesse Livermore be in his element it if he was here...

1929 October Stock Market Crash...all OVER again???

FAST forward the video to 2:00...

AND...GOLD UP $33 so far today Yahoo...!

Hey DB, maybe we're HERE ...the TURNING POINT?

WON'T be long before the SE HOUSING CRASH gets into full swing...lovely jubbly...i'm gonna enjoy seeing ALL those povertyinvestor-in-its get CREAMED! xD

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56 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

At the moment it looks like gold and silver are seen as safe havens, and any stock market correction in the US hasn't really got going, I'd have thought the upside in metals would continue until we're well into the crash, I'd have thought capitulation selling of metals would be after we're say 25% down in the DOW.

I'm thinking maybe beaten up but solid FTSE div players hedged with PMs.

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6 minutes ago, Harley said:

I'm thinking maybe beaten up but solid FTSE div players hedged with PMs.

i thought thats what we were doing?

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3 minutes ago, Bear Hug said:

Today marks the return to a profitable position (probably with about 5% gain) since I started to follow ToS deflation thread.

I am impressed how BT held up in all the turmoil this week and regret a not piling up another couple of thousands into the gold miners over the last couple of months.

 

Thats great Bear Hug,and in a market getting hammered,the portfolio doing exactly what its meant to then,be 100% contrarian.My portfolio hit a record today.My biggest holding was Harmony (no 1 on my rubber band list) and think it was the biggest or one of the biggest increases today (16%).All the others did superb as well.I think whats needed is a steady down draft in the equity markets,we dont want a really strong sell off as the miners might get sucked in.A lot will depend on if gold goes back down or if the record net short hedge funds lose their bottle and try to close positions.The commercials who went net long will want delivery.My indicators were correct and spotted the turn at the most bearish point and  the rubber band stocks performed.They have had a lot of problems and are stretched right back creating a lot of potential velocity but are only effective at turning points hence needing the indicators to provide a none emotional buy signal.

We dont want a crash though because that will take the miners down,we want slow burn pain inflicted on 99.9% of people until everyone is jumping into the sector.First part done,2nd part is can the indicators signal when to sell?.Crazy shit this thread and everyone on it xD

 

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well, no one expressed any interest in my fund the other day;

SEDOL: B3RJHY3 | ISIN: GB00B3RJHY30 | MEX: SWRESO | CITI: A1GE o

just been checking the top 10 holdings, hahevent had chance to go thru them all, but todays rises in top 10 look like 5% to nearly 8%, course doesnt mean the other holdings havent negated it, but good start.

image.png.50da3c1ee66ee8675d8765fabf7b757b.png

 

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Battered but solid divi players and pms, check, Harley and leonardratso. Lovely and going nice and green on there today. 

Today I have attached the BS detector to my tinfoil hat more firmly after reading the Guardian RICS story saying house prices were falling just because of Brexit...and realised it wasn’t for the VUKE and CIND and VUSA I wouldn’t be down 3%. 

So ditching them finally out of my SIPP and happily watching the miners and defensives with some in reserve to BTFD.

feels a bit like a war film and we’re being told to “wait for it... wait for it...”

...good man Sergeant DB. 

And General Panza.

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4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

well, no one expressed any interest in my fund the other day;

SEDOL: B3RJHY3 | ISIN: GB00B3RJHY30 | MEX: SWRESO | CITI: A1GE o

just been checking the top 10 holdings, hahevent had chance to go thru them all, but todays rises in top 10 look like 5% to nearly 8%, course doesnt mean the other holdings havent negated it, but good start.

image.png.50da3c1ee66ee8675d8765fabf7b757b.png

 

Looks a very solid fund that and potential to do very well for anyone not wanting to buy individual miners.My new job monday has a pension,its invested in world trackers ,50% north America,wonder if i can add that fund instead ;)

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