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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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That fund actually fell, so the others not listed must have dragged on it, looks like it needs a big gold bull to puil it all up, so anyway im trickling into it at the moment monthly, lets see what it can do over the next year.

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Oh, found a problem with the Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources Fund - very prominently, Morningstar ranks it below average on sustainability.  It's not even got a "Sustainability Mandate" FFS! 

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20 hours ago, Mere mortal said:

yaaay ! Congratulations ! I still need to buy !!! oh its difficult though as i have no proof of address here, only my passport as staying at parents for now... what ID did you need and where did you buy them ?

 

 

Just catching up and I see Cosmic Apple has already replied.  I used Coininvest and no ID needed but I was out when the courier came to deliver the parcel and had to go round to the corner shop to collect it!  Typical.........I was only out for an hour and that was when he decided to deliver!

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27 minutes ago, Harley said:

Oh, found a problem with the Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources Fund - very prominently, Morningstar ranks it below average on sustainability.  It's not even got a "Sustainability Mandate" FFS! 

yar, 45%, but to be honest, they are all a bit crappy and relatively hated, like their underlying equities.

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4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

yar, 45%, but to be honest, they are all a bit crappy and relatively hated, like their underlying equities.

SJW types to the left, SJW types to the right, and now infecting my beloved Morningstar.  I really don't need spoon feeding this virtual signalling tripe.  Oh what is one to do? 

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Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources Fund annual charge 1.82% (ouch) reduced to 1.07% (better) with HL but then HL add their 0.45% charge to give an annual 1.84% charge!  HL also waives the initial 5% charge.  But then there's a B class version of the fund with a HL annual 1.49% charge?

Top 10 holdings account for about 32% of total funsd by value, which is not great if you were to just buy them instead.  However the top holding is not an equity stock so could take that out (because say you have a separate metals investment) so the remaining top 9 represent only 27%.  Can't see details of the complete 81 holdings like I can say with GDX.  Pity.

Interesting analysis would be to see how well these 9 holdings track the overall fund and its underlying index.  Quite often there's a Pareto effect.

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just had a look at the kid i got with this, ive got;

Charges
The charges you pay are used to pay the costs of running the Fund,
including the costs of marketing and distributing it. These charges
reduce the potential growth of your investment.
One-off charges taken before or after you invest
Entry charge
0.00%
Exit charge
0.00%
These are the maximum charges that we might take out of your money
before it is invested and before we pay out the sale proceeds of your
investment. In some cases, you might pay less and you should speak
to your financial adviser about this.
Charges taken from the Fund over a year
Ongoing charges
0.72%
Charges taken from the Fund under specific conditions
Performance fee
NONE
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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

just had a look at the kid i got with this, ive got;

Charges
The charges you pay are used to pay the costs of running the Fund,
including the costs of marketing and distributing it. These charges
reduce the potential growth of your investment.
One-off charges taken before or after you invest
Entry charge
0.00%
Exit charge
0.00%
These are the maximum charges that we might take out of your money
before it is invested and before we pay out the sale proceeds of your
investment. In some cases, you might pay less and you should speak
to your financial adviser about this.
Charges taken from the Fund over a year
Ongoing charges
0.72%
Charges taken from the Fund under specific conditions
Performance fee
NONE

That's the class B fund (which is the cheaper of the two) but you'll need to add broker charges (initial (zero for HL) and ongoing (0.45% for HL)).

The HL charging detailed sheet was doing my head in (1.49% average charge!).

Don't know what the difference is between the two funds.

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43 minutes ago, Harley said:

Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources Fund annual charge 1.82% (ouch) reduced to 1.07% (better) with HL but then HL add their 0.45% charge to give an annual 1.84% charge!  HL also waives the initial 5% charge.  But then there's a B class version of the fund with a HL annual 1.49% charge?

Top 10 holdings account for about 32% of total funsd by value, which is not great if you were to just buy them instead.  However the top holding is not an equity stock so could take that out (because say you have a separate metals investment) so the remaining top 9 represent only 27%.  Can't see details of the complete 81 holdings like I can say with GDX.  Pity.

Interesting analysis would be to see how well these 9 holdings track the overall fund and its underlying index.  Quite often there's a Pareto effect.

Had a quick look at the first few equities in their top ten holdings and TBH I would struggle to trade them individually with my setup.  Some do OK on the weekly charts, some better on the daily, some none at all.  But overall I would miss too many buys which is a shame 'cause when they go, they go!  Maybe the fund (or an ETF) would be better given a possble portfolio effect.  Of course, had I been looking in January 2016!!!!

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5 minutes ago, Harley said:

That's the class B fund (which is the cheaper of the two) but you'll need to add broker charges (initial (zero for HL) and ongoing (0.45% for HL)).

The HL charging detailed sheet was doing my head in (1.49% average charge!).

Don't know what the difference is between the two funds.

ah, i use lloyds fro funds;

£1.50 to deal (buy/sell) and £20 for the account every 6 months. Then that 0.72% of the fund value which they add to the £20 if i remember correctly.

But the £20 i pay even if i do nothing so i suppose thats a platform fee.

 

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6 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

ah, i use lloyds fro funds;

£1.50 to deal (buy/sell) and £20 for the account every 6 months. Then that 0.72% of the fund value which they add to the £20 if i remember correctly.

But the £20 i pay even if i do nothing so i suppose thats a platform fee.

 

Even more complicated on HL because although its 0.45% ongoing charge, I think that is capped at £200 or whatever pa so not right to charge 0.45% if you hold enough stocks.

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19 minutes ago, Harley said:

Had a quick look at the first few equities in their top ten holdings and TBH I would struggle to trade them individually with my setup.  Some do OK on the weekly charts, some better on the daily, some none at all.  But overall I would miss too many buys which is a shame 'cause when they go, they go!  Maybe the fund (or an ETF) would be better given a possble portfolio effect.  Of course, had I been looking in January 2016!!!!

However.......!

Looking at GDX ('cause as an ETF it has daily+ price data to do the analysis on).....

Which removes the "noise" from any individual superstars like Silvercrest.....

We may have a small (or shoulder of a larger) possibly (at some time!) bullish inverted head and shoulders chart pattern.

And me analysis may just start to work (need to backtest)!

Still a bucking bronco to ride though.

Definitely not for widows and orphans!

I've been meaning to do this analysis for a while so thanks!

Capture.thumb.PNG.7ca6fdee6ee347582b05ac753ca007e0.PNG

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Just now, Harley said:

However.......!

Looking at GDX ('cause as an ETF it has daily+ price data to do the analysis on).....

Which removes the "noise" from any individual superstars like Silvercrest.....

We may well have a bullish inverted head and shoulders chart pattern.

And me analysis may just start to work (need to backtest)!

Still a bucking bronco to ride though.

Definitely not for widows and orphans!

I've been meaning to do this analysis for a while so thanks!

Capture.thumb.PNG.7ca6fdee6ee347582b05ac753ca007e0.PNG

Id like to see GDX hold 2% above yesterdays open so around 19.20 over the next 3 days .I reckon main resistance is at about 20.80 so id also like to see 21 broken and held to give more confidence an uptrend has begun.I dont really do charts,but its just what i was seeing in the complex when putting together a stocks list.Too be honest id prefer pull backs if possible before its off to the races.Very good chance retail might buy the equity dip as the last decade has taught them to always buy the dip.Fed is behind inflation though and the population is about to start feeling it even more.To contain it they need to get rates to where we get a huge debt deflation.Gold loves interest rate increases,though everybody and his dog doesnt think so.Minimum wage seems to be shooting up in the US (Amazon started it and others will follow) and should also tick into inflation.

 

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24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id like to see GDX hold 2% above yesterdays open so around 19.20 over the next 3 days .I reckon main resistance is at about 20.80 so id also like to see 21 broken and held to give more confidence an uptrend has begun.I dont really do charts,but its just what i was seeing in the complex when putting together a stocks list.Too be honest id prefer pull backs if possible before its off to the races.Very good chance retail might buy the equity dip as the last decade has taught them to always buy the dip.Fed is behind inflation though and the population is about to start feeling it even more.To contain it they need to get rates to where we get a huge debt deflation.Gold loves interest rate increases,though everybody and his dog doesnt think so.Minimum wage seems to be shooting up in the US (Amazon started it and others will follow) and should also tick into inflation.

 

Yep deffo need/should pullback.  There's also a gap up yesterday to be filled.  We had a nice Head and Shoulders starting 2016, followed by a descending triangle and then nothing until August this year.  Something's deffo up!  Oh well off to see the boss now to BS why I've done so little "work" this week (in case she asks, it's your fault ok!)!  Hope I still get a curry though!  All the best for the new job.

Capture.thumb.PNG.8d331d83e906b4a86e41706250acdb0f.PNG

 

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Id like to see GDX hold 2% above yesterdays open so around 19.20 over the next 3 days .I reckon main resistance is at about 20.80 so id also like to see 21 broken and held to give more confidence an uptrend has begun.I dont really do charts,but its just what i was seeing in the complex when putting together a stocks list.Too be honest id prefer pull backs if possible before its off to the races.Very good chance retail might buy the equity dip as the last decade has taught them to always buy the dip.Fed is behind inflation though and the population is about to start feeling it even more.To contain it they need to get rates to where we get a huge debt deflation.Gold loves interest rate increases,though everybody and his dog doesnt think so.Minimum wage seems to be shooting up in the US (Amazon started it and others will follow) and should also tick into inflation.

 

What do you think of what Smither's suggested in the CAPE and Q article I posted earlier today?

Quote

From the viewpoint of the stock market, continued slow growth of productivity is the most important issue. The US trend growth rate is probably no more than 1% p.a. but is generally assumed to be faster. Because of this excessive optimism the main, though by no means the only, risk for the stock market is that the Fed will not raise interest rates fast enough to prevent a rise in inflationary expectations, leading to stagflation and the deep recession that is needed for its cure.

That would seem to suggest the sell off this week might be because President Trump is attacking the Fed for raising rates?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/11/17963476/donald-trump-fed-loco-crazy

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3 hours ago, janch said:

Just catching up and I see Cosmic Apple has already replied.  I used Coininvest and no ID needed but I was out when the courier came to deliver the parcel and had to go round to the corner shop to collect it!  Typical.........I was only out for an hour and that was when he decided to deliver!

Thanks Janch ! crikey got delivered to the corner shop ! Imagine if it had accidentally got scooped up and passed on to someone else or returned with surplus stock etc.. lucky !!

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28 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

What do you think of what Smither's suggested in the CAPE and Q article I posted earlier today?

That would seem to suggest the sell off this week might be because President Trump is attacking the Fed for raising rates?

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2018/10/11/17963476/donald-trump-fed-loco-crazy

I think it's difficult to know if Trump is attacking the Fed geninuely or not. He's a master tactician and if the markets are going to correct/crash he needs someone else to blame. Look what he was saying back in 2011.

DpOrGcGXgAAVsTy.jpg:large

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1 hour ago, Mere mortal said:

Thanks Janch ! crikey got delivered to the corner shop ! Imagine if it had accidentally got scooped up and passed on to someone else or returned with surplus stock etc.. lucky !!

If that happened the tracking would show that they were not delivered to you. You can now chose to get parcels delivered to local shops with various companies, UPS and DPD do them (DPD tend to be pharmacies, UPS corner shops).

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1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I think it's difficult to know if Trump is attacking the Fed geninuely or not. He's a master tactician and if the markets are going to correct/crash he needs someone else to blame. Look what he was saying back in 2011.

DpOrGcGXgAAVsTy.jpg:large

And this...

IMG_20181012_185900.thumb.jpg.03155a6eca92a23d82c95dcba51a53c7.jpg

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25 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

And this...

IMG_20181012_185900.thumb.jpg.03155a6eca92a23d82c95dcba51a53c7.jpg

The dems have him now. No need for two years of russia. There's a trump tweet for everything xD 

But makes my point really, no way to know what he says is what he means. Nonetheless, the fed is its own entity I don't think he can put much pressure on them no matter the appearances.

Quote

So you have the Federal Reserve Board in Washington appointed by the President. That’s the only part of this system that is directly dependent on the government for input that’s the “federal” part: that the government—the [US] President, specifically—gets to choose a few select governors. The twelve regional banks—the most influential of which is the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, which is essentially based in Wall Street to represent Wall Street—is a representative of the major Wall Street banks who own shares in the private, not federal, but private Federal Reserve Bank of New York. All of the other regional banks are also private banks. They vary according to how much influence they wield but the Kansas City Fed is influential, the St. Louis Fed, the Dallas Fed, but the New York Fed is really the center of this system and precisely because it represents the Wall Street banks who appoint the leadership of the New York Fed.

So the New York Fed has a lot of public power, but no public accountability or oversight. It does not answer to Congress the way that the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors does and even the chairman of the Federal Reserve Board, who is appointed by the President, does not answer to the President, does not answer to Congress. He goes to Congress to testify, but the policy that they set is independent. So they have no input from the government. The government can’t tell them what to do, legally speaking, and of course they don’t.

 

Quote

The Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for setting interest rates. Now this committee, which is enormously powerful, has as its membership the Governor and Vice Chair of the Federal Reserve Board, but on the Federal Open Market Committee most of the membership is the presidents of the regional Federal Reserve Banks representing private interests. So they have significant input in setting the interest rates. Interest rates are not set by a public body, they’re set by private financial and corporate interests. And that’s whose interests they serve, of course.

 

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Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I think it's difficult to know if Trump is attacking the Fed geninuely or not. He's a master tactician and if the markets are going to correct/crash he needs someone else to blame. Look what he was saying back in 2011.

President Trump was saying interest rates were too low but also that the USD was too high. As if he didn't realise raising rates would raise the dollar. Politicians say what they think people want to hear. I wouldn't trust any of them further than what I could throw one.

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56 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

President Trump was saying interest rates were too low but also that the USD was too high. As if he didn't realise raising rates would raise the dollar. Politicians say what they think people want to hear. I wouldn't trust any of them further than what I could throw one.

Indeed, Trump is no fool.

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