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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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hmm,  must be very delayed reporting on the smith & williams fund, getting this now on morning star;

NAV
12/10/2018
  GBX 47.03
Day Change   4.72%

 

So it can move.

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14 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I think it's difficult to know if Trump is attacking the Fed geninuely or not. He's a master tactician and if the markets are going to correct/crash he needs someone else to blame. Look what he was saying back in 2011.

DpOrGcGXgAAVsTy.jpg:large

I find DT to lack credibility as everything he utters is vacuous...in fact he appears so transparent it amazes me that anyone would actually vote for him, even the educationally naive, who are normally a little more streetwise and can spot BS a mile off!

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40 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I find DT to lack credibility as everything he utters is vacuous...in fact he appears so transparent it amazes me that anyone would actually vote for him, even the educationally naive, who are normally a little more streetwise and can spot BS a mile off!

Yes they should have voted Hilary and have been 100% sure of continuing with the status quo.

 

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41 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I find DT to lack credibility as everything he utters is vacuous...in fact he appears so transparent it amazes me that anyone would actually vote for him, even the educationally naive, who are normally a little more streetwise and can spot BS a mile off!

The point in the post was more aimed at highlighting that the Fed is it's own entity and not beholden to the president or congress, not many actually know this, how the Fed is made up or it's full history. Which is well worth understanding.

DT is a master tactician in my opinion, which we can agree to disagree on. At the end of the day he did get voted in against all the odds and can consistantly play everybody, especially the liberals like a fiddle. Therefore will say and do whatever he needs to. Now I'm with @Democorruptcy on when it comes to believing politicians, with that said, I do enjoy DT's trolling and he did win me a lot of money. Lets keep the policitcal/trump attacks for elsewhere on the forum though, there's plenty of topics for that.

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11 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

The point in the post was more aimed at highlighting that the Fed is it's own entity and not beholden to the president or congress, not many actually know this, how the Fed is made up or it's full history. Which is well worth understanding.

DT is a master tactician in my opinion, which we can agree to disagree on. At the end of the day he did get voted in against all the odds and can consistantly play everybody, especially the liberals like a fiddle. Therefore will say and do whatever he needs to. Now I'm with @Democorruptcy on when it comes to believing politicians, with that said, I do enjoy DT's trolling and he did win me a lot of money. Lets keep the policitcal/trump attacks for elsewhere on the forum though, there's plenty of topics for that.

Whats the main take is the cycles were ready for a Trump.China,Russia etc needed putting back in their boxes,and the west needs massive investment.Dis-inflation has pushed the price of everything down in price including wages,but it has also made consumption higher up the pole than investment.Voting in Trump and voting for Brexit are all part of voting for a reflation.The Fed knows there is inflation in the system and its now getting out into the real economy.Amazon bumping their workers 25% pay increase's will see more and more low paid sectors do the same.We came to the conclusion the Fed is happy to turn the screw on the rest of the world even if it produces recession to protect the dollar for another cycle.The credit cycle is ending or has ended and there is a lot of dislocation ahead.

I still think PMs might have a very good time of it,but then crash down with the rest of the market towards the end of the bear,but unlike other cycles i think PMs and other inflation loving sectors will be the first out of the traps in the recovery.

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32 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

The point in the post was more aimed at highlighting that the Fed is it's own entity and not beholden to the president or congress, not many actually know this, how the Fed is made up or it's full history. Which is well worth understanding.

The majority of people I meet/friends/family have no idea of how the monetary system works, or how it ever came to be incidentally. When the average working person donates 1/3rd of their life given on this planet to earn it, you would like to think people would have a better understanding. I typically send them this video, mildly amusing, easy to watch and a bit of a red pill to boot.

 

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2 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

The majority of people I meet/friends/family have no idea of how the monetary system works, or how it ever came to be incidentally. When the average working person donates 1/3rd of their life given on this planet to earn it, you would like to think people would have a better understanding. I typically send them this video, mildly amusing, easy to watch and a bit of a red pill to boot.

 


[media]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CAYkmutzcrU[/media]

 

I will watch tonight. Thanks for the link.

I've watched the video below 3 times and gets better with every watch. There is something funky going on with this video since CNN cried about it. Doesn't show up fully on my youtube app since. The image is blanked out xD

 

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Bricks & Mortar
38 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

a bit of a red pill to boot. 

Been a long time since I watched a Saturday morning cartoon.  Thanks for that.

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1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

The point in the post was more aimed at highlighting that the Fed is it's own entity and not beholden to the president or congress, not many actually know this, how the Fed is made up or it's full history. Which is well worth understanding.

DT is a master tactician in my opinion, which we can agree to disagree on. At the end of the day he did get voted in against all the odds and can consistantly play everybody, especially the liberals like a fiddle. Therefore will say and do whatever he needs to. Now I'm with @Democorruptcy on when it comes to believing politicians, with that said, I do enjoy DT's trolling and he did win me a lot of money. Lets keep the policitcal/trump attacks for elsewhere on the forum though, there's plenty of topics for that.

I don't think we are in disagreement...I think he is a clever game player too...take another look at my comment and you will see I was actually focussing on the naivety of the people that voed for/support him.

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2 hours ago, Banned said:

Yes they should have voted Hilary and have been 100% sure of continuing with the status quo.

 

That’s the problem.. shame they could not have got Bernie.. although I doubt he would get any of his equality policies through.. 

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i find it amazing how scummy the yanks are, at least trump is showing this to be the case, we never saw all this hoohaa from them when obama was president, mainly because they agreed with what he was 'apparently' doing and no boats 'seemed' to be rocked. Im using quotes because we get the odd glimmer that he may secretly have been doing something else.

Anyway, im not getting into that, you have to have the odd spanner in the works to stop the machine and then go for a rebuild, nothing can last forever on the same path.

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On 11/10/2018 at 22:22, leonardratso said:

its 46 pence a unit gone down since i bought it to 44.98 , but ill check it tomorrow morning and see where its at. Income fund, might have an ACC but i couldnt find it,

ocf relatively expensive @ 0.72% and doesnt look like it did too well over the years, maybe maxing out at 2x current NAV, but hey, the times are a changing maybe eh.

http://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/funds/snapshot/snapshot.aspx?id=F00000MNWP

Smith & Williamson Global Gold & Resources B Inc

Thanks for this - very helpful.

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On 12/10/2018 at 09:05, Harley said:

That's one of the things I really like about you - you look at the whole, even if you may get specific at times. 

That piece about going back to work as a form of risk mitigation is a classic.  You know your limits and think out the box to progress.  You don't double down and risk it all but you create a bigger universe.  An absolute classic!

Investing is a hard but beautiful game.  It really challenges who you are and what you want to be and can make you a far better person because it will make you look into your soul at times.

I've met too many former wanabee traders who won't ever go near the game again having lost it all.  So sad that with a bit of training and support they could still be in the game and doing all right.  That is, if they fancy the game, as it really is, rather than what they imagine.  

Can you recommend any particular books that have helped you develop your trading strategies? I like the cut of your jib.

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The cover of this week's Economist just landed. 

It's this sort of 'mainstream' coverage we're getting at the moment that makes me doubt this really is 'the big one'. We've been getting a lot of this in the media recently. Maybe it's just that the writing is so obviously now on the wall?

Will share if there's any interesting tidbits.

15394335205041946111730.jpg

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

i find it amazing how scummy the yanks are, at least trump is showing this to be the case, we never saw all this hoohaa from them when obama was president, mainly because they agreed with what he was 'apparently' doing and no boats 'seemed' to be rocked. Im using quotes because we get the odd glimmer that he may secretly have been doing something else.

Anyway, im not getting into that, you have to have the odd spanner in the works to stop the machine and then go for a rebuild, nothing can last forever on the same path.

From anecdotes from across the pond I think the absolute main issue that elected Trump was whether Americans were pro- or anti- abortion,  but it’s never mentioned as a major US election issue by the media here. Same as previous Republican presidential elections. 

Leonardratso thanks for the tip on the Smith & Williamson fund. Really interesting. 

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1 hour ago, Thorn said:

From anecdotes from across the pond I think the absolute main issue that elected Trump was whether Americans were pro- or anti- abortion,  but it’s never mentioned as a major US election issue by the media here. Same as previous Republican presidential elections. 

Leonardratso thanks for the tip on the Smith & Williamson fund. Really interesting. 

I was actually looking for some legalandgeneral miner/metals funds, ie for my work pension since 10K of it is from other pensions that i paid in so i can move it around, unfortunately they dont have much in the stable of available funds, I sent them an email asking them and just got a proforma reply saying go thru the KIIDS and find ones with miners, totally unhelpful.

I might go thru some today and have a look around,  if anyone knwos of any then please let me know.

Ah i found 1 that uses some physical gold ETF's, only 2.46% and the rest looks like the usual crud of american tech etc, ill punt a couple of 3 grand at it, might as well, the default fund i cant get at and thats fixed by work. Overall its worth the risk, the default fund sets me 3K down over the last week so its a bit sensitive to global equities, think a couple of grand in a cash fund as well. none of the offered looks particularly good and its mainly the same old stuff regurgitated in different ratios. Nothing to see here, move along please.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
2 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

The cover of this week's Economist just landed. 

It's this sort of 'mainstream' coverage we're getting at the moment that makes me doubt this really is 'the big one'. We've been getting a lot of this in the media recently. Maybe it's just that the writing is so obviously now on the wall?

Will share if there's any interesting tidbits.

15394335205041946111730.jpg

 
AGREED!
 
Anything thats on the front cover of the R family owned The Economist do the OPPOSITE, yep be contrary...AND I expect the markets next week to SHOOT up on seeing this!
 
I reckon recession cancelled for at least a year...
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1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
AGREED!
 
Anything thats on the front cover of the R family owned The Economist do the OPPOSITE, yep be contrary...AND I expect the markets next week to SHOOT up on seeing this!
 
I reckon recession cancelled for at least a year...

This backs you up.

"In fact, a study of 44 Economist covers between 1998 and 2016 by Citibank analysts Greg Marks and Carl Donnelly found that “68.2% of covers are wrong after one year”. A market timer with a 68.2% success rate is about as a valuable a tool as you could hope for. Hedge funds would pay fortunes for it."

https://moneyweek.com/456242/dominic-frisby-us-dollar-bull-market-is-over/

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

I was actually looking for some legalandgeneral miner/metals funds, ie for my work pension since 10K of it is from other pensions that i paid in so i can move it around, unfortunately they dont have much in the stable of available funds, I sent them an email asking them and just got a proforma reply saying go thru the KIIDS and find ones with miners, totally unhelpful.

I might go thru some today and have a look around,  if anyone knwos of any then please let me know.

Ah i found 1 that uses some physical gold ETF's, only 2.46% and the rest looks like the usual crud of american tech etc, ill punt a couple of 3 grand at it, might as well, the default fund i cant get at and thats fixed by work. Overall its worth the risk, the default fund sets me 3K down over the last week so its a bit sensitive to global equities, think a couple of grand in a cash fund as well. none of the offered looks particularly good and its mainly the same old stuff regurgitated in different ratios. Nothing to see here, move along please.

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

that is quite right, imagine trying to cash out when your in a bad slump or bear market, your final value could be complete shite compared to the build up. Risky and inflexible eh.

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Democorruptcy
14 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

Have you gone as far as asking for a transfer value yet? I've done that this year and last and the value had gone up 4%. I didn't move it because the fees quoted were very expensive from those that were prepared to do it, several refused.

Good luck Monday and don't forget your flask and sarnies!

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2 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you gone as far as asking for a transfer value yet? I've done that this year and last and the value had gone up 4%. I didn't move it because the fees quoted were very expensive from those that were prepared to do it, several refused.

Good luck Monday and don't forget your flask and sarnies!

(and a copy of the sun for reading in trap 2 from 8am to 2pm - up the workers).

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Have you gone as far as asking for a transfer value yet? I've done that this year and last and the value had gone up 4%. I didn't move it because the fees quoted were very expensive from those that were prepared to do it, several refused.

Good luck Monday and don't forget your flask and sarnies!

Its only the money purchase part (most is final salary) and its about £28k.The problem is because i can use that part for the tax free cash rather than from the final salary part they say i need financial advice because il lose a valuable benefit.To be fair to them that is true,but i already know that and would draw out from 55 to 68 at tax allowance level from my SIPP so lose nothing.My cousin is a financial advisor,but says his firm wont touch anything connected to final salary pensions as there is too much scope for miss selling complaints in the future etc.Iv decided il just kick my final salary pension in at 55 and use that £28k (or whatever its worth then) for the 25% tax free cash,or whatever % it comes out at below that.

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52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.....Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

.......One of the best things about quitting my normal job was I could move my employer scheme to a SIPP.  I realised it was only going up due to my and my employer monthly contributions, despite the low fees! 

Trackers may have a role in an overall portfolio (although some say they are financial WMDs)  but lifestyle funds - no fund could track my lifestyle!

And bond funds and all that bond equity split according to age - nah not for me thanks. 

Seriously looking again at trying to buy bonds direct and holding to maturity and avoiding all such funds.  That's assuming bonds regardless of form make sense. 

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