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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

I was actually looking for some legalandgeneral miner/metals funds, ie for my work pension since 10K of it is from other pensions that i paid in so i can move it around, unfortunately they dont have much in the stable of available funds, I sent them an email asking them and just got a proforma reply saying go thru the KIIDS and find ones with miners, totally unhelpful.

I might go thru some today and have a look around,  if anyone knwos of any then please let me know.

Ah i found 1 that uses some physical gold ETF's, only 2.46% and the rest looks like the usual crud of american tech etc, ill punt a couple of 3 grand at it, might as well, the default fund i cant get at and thats fixed by work. Overall its worth the risk, the default fund sets me 3K down over the last week so its a bit sensitive to global equities, think a couple of grand in a cash fund as well. none of the offered looks particularly good and its mainly the same old stuff regurgitated in different ratios. Nothing to see here, move along please.

Was investigating L&G on Friday as that’s my option for moving work pension into. Have a choice of about 30 or 40 funds but couldn’t see any that broadly aligned with the gist of this thread. A few with Vodaphone in but always mixed in with other crap. Will have a proper look at some point as not in a rush but it wasn’t inspiring.

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4 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Was investigating L&G on Friday as that’s my option for moving work pension into. Have a choice of about 30 or 40 funds but couldn’t see any that broadly aligned with the gist of this thread. A few with Vodaphone in but always mixed in with other crap. Will have a proper look at some point as not in a rush but it wasn’t inspiring.

I have a smallish L&G dutch pension type fund.  Invested in their gold and miner type fund.  Bounced around a bit so little net gain, depending when I look.  Hate to say it but tracker types did better for a buy and forget over the last few years.  Maybe not going forward.  I'm still trying to see if the dutch scheme is better than the uk ones in any way, rip off Britain and all!

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8 minutes ago, Harley said:

.......One of the best things about quitting my normal job was I could move my employer scheme to a SIPP.  I realised it was only going up due to my and my employer monthly contributions, despite the low fees! 

Trackers may have a role in an overall portfolio (although some say they are financial WMDs)  but lifestyle funds - no fund could track my lifestyle!

And bond funds and all that bond equity split according to age - nah not for me thanks. 

Seriously looking again at trying to buy bonds direct and holding to maturity and avoiding all such funds.  That's assuming bonds regardless of form make sense. 

Well quite.I guess you can understand companies having default funds,but i think that they should all have the option to use any fund on the market.Iv got my SIPP transfer form ready and the day i leave the job i start monday it will be in the post.Not so bothered with the new one,they put 8% in to my 4% so il default to their cash fund and as i wont be there too long il simply transfer it when i leave.Capita are in charge of the pensions.Thats enough to get us rolling around laughing,but i dont know the funds until i get my log in later.Maybe they have an "Outsources,FANGs and Private Equity IPO fund" xD

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11 hours ago, MrXxx said:

I find DT to lack credibility as everything he utters is vacuous...in fact he appears so transparent it amazes me that anyone would actually vote for him, even the educationally naive, who are normally a little more streetwise and can spot BS a mile off!

 Looking at this again I can see it doesn't read well, and so can be open to misinterpretation....and appears a little condescending... basically I meant to express that DT doest come across as very genuine and am surprised that the average street wise voter/supporter cannot see through this.

Thanks for down voting as it got me to take a second look...now lets get back to making our fortunes!

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2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Was investigating L&G on Friday as that’s my option for moving work pension into. Have a choice of about 30 or 40 funds but couldn’t see any that broadly aligned with the gist of this thread. A few with Vodaphone in but always mixed in with other crap. Will have a proper look at some point as not in a rush but it wasn’t inspiring.

I see 38 funds at work, the default one is ' LANDG managed lifestyle profile ' , thats the one My and employers contribution goes into, I asked LANDG if i could split the payments out to other of their funds as suggested you could from their online tutorials, no they said, i would have to empty it and then couldnt get back in. Anyway i left it cos they really were 'kin useless.

I did however manage to dump some other frozen pensions into it and i can split them off to their other funds as well as start seperate managed lifestyle profiles like the main one, but can pull out my share to other funds. My frozen funds also included £4K from a pension i never signed up for at one job and the employer carried on paying into it long after id left, it had exactly zero pence from me when i worked there or after i left, bonus. I left it a while and then a few years later transferred it, i thought theyd tell me to go screw, but no, it went thru.

Heres the ones from my favorite list, although to be honest none is a favourite,  the newton one at the end had physical gold etf in it, the only one i could found, so slung 3K into it.and 2K into the L&G cash fund, the rest i left in the default managed lifestyle profile, thats the one thats lost me 3K in last week.

Aberdeen Life Global (ex UK) Equity Fund

L&G (PMC) Multi-Asset Fund

L&G Cash Fund

L&G European Fund

L&G Fixed Interest Fund

L&G Managed Lifestyle Profile

L&G US Equity Index Fund

Newton Multi-Asset Balanced Fund

If you want to track these on a google sheet scraping them from morning star or LSE let me know, i can give you the code and XPATH import for the xml, they used to be available from google finance direct, but they look like theyve stopped supporting None USA stuff these days.

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Clueless Imbecile

Good evening all!

I'm a bit worried about what's been said on here about stockmarket index tracker funds because I've still got a lot of my investable pot in a collection of trackers (mostly unit trusts and OEICs) that each cover a different region within global markets. I have tried to protect my wealth a little by investing (diversifying?) in some PM miners and a few (reflation?) stocks (Vodafone, Centrica, BT, SSE) and also a small amount of physical silver (stored in a vault, not at home).

My strategy with the tracker funds was buy and long-term hold with dividends re-invested (accumulation units). I am about 20 years away from retirement. Obviously I can't predict the future but I think it's unlikely that I would need to sell my tracker funds Within the next 10 years (maybe 20 years).

With the above in mind, I'm just wondering what people here think about trackers (as long term hold from now on)? If the great crash that we're talking about were to happen in the next few years, I would expect that tracker funds would fall in value accordingly (since they're designed to track the market). But... wouldn't we expect the stock markets (globally) to eventually recover and the tracker funds also recover?

I imagine that trackers automatically trade (ie by software automation), but I guess that would be to periodically re-balance as the market-cap weightings of different stocks within the index fluctuate. I don't see why trackers should auto sell just because the market is falling as a whole?

I think someone was talking about the risks of ETFs spiraling down in a falling market. Is that specifically ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) or does the same risk apply to UTs (Unit Trusts) and OEICs (Open Ended Investment Companies)? There are subtle differences between ETFs (priced in real time like a stock) and UTs/OEICs (usually priced once per day and only orders placed before a cut-off time get executed at that day's price point).

I have a lot of sympathy with the views expressed on here and a lot of respect for everyone who has taken the time to express their opinions. I have taken some action based on what I've learned here (the PM mining stocks and physical silver in a vault). However, at the same time I feel reluctant to completely abandon my buy-low-cost-tracker-funds-and-long-term-hold-with-dividends-reinvested strategy.

I would be interested to hear peoples views on this.

1) Am I being foolish to think that I can simply hold my stock market index tracker funds long term (from now on for 10 years or more) and ride out the kind of crash that is being discussed on this thread?

2) Do people think that long standing principles such as (a) buy-and-long-term-hold of low cost index tracker funds, (b) pound-cost-averaging, (c) time-in-the-market-not-timing-the-market, are no longer applicable?

My own answers to the above would be:

1) No I'm not being foolish. The markets may crash and my tracker fund holdings fall in value accordingly, but as long as I hold long enough for the market to recover and the tracker funds track that recovery, I should not lose out. Plus, while the market is down, the dividends should be getting re-invested to buy more shares whilst they are cheap. The effect of that should get amplified as the markets rise.

2) No. Those principles are still good.

As you can see, I still believe in stockmarket index tracker funds. I do have a slight worry about what might happen if they become too popular (following the herd isn't always the best strategy), but even if trackers become the most popular investment going, I would guess that a lot of investors would not have the self-discipline to hold for the long term. Therefore, if I do hold for the long term, that could give me an edge.

...but that's just my opinion. Happy to hear other peoples opinions (even if you think I'm being a clueless imbecile, LOL!).


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

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@Clueless Imbecile hi and thanks for the post.

I've put some of my views and asked for opinions on a similar reasoning  on the thread "Investing for the next cycle - for beginners!" (see above) - no doubt your points are much clear put.

If you think you are a clueless imbecile, well I can not even think where I would be in the scale...

For my understanding of the ETFs and after some theory grabbing from the likes of Burton G. Makiel, Benjamin Graham , et. al. they will work well because "no one can beat the market". However, what has emerged is the challenge  and a bit of ping pong going on, that there are issues about the liquidity on them and untested pass over a proper bear market to see how they would  behave. To complicate the matters, the synthetic ETFs had somehow "always" been flagged with the seal of "avoid".

For the OEICs, from my understanding, they would hold the underlining "assets" (i.e. hold for the long term using the recommended theory  to retail investors) that some groups are agreeing that with  ETFs this would not happen.

For my understanding , picking a proper long term portfolio can be time consuming and managing it the same - why the usual recommendation of a tracker to be acquired by "the ones that don't understand/want/cant/other  analyze the companies to create his/her own portfolio".

Said all that ,in my opinion , with a little bit of effort , one can simply check what composes that OEICs or ETFs and create his/her own portfolio and do it manually - with the consideration of cost of trading and as per Benjamin Graham of no more than 30 securities.

And I would say that the ETFs that have physical precious metals in a "decent bank" (some suggested to avoid ones keeping the HSBC as a custodian) should be the 3rd diversification option as "safe haven" part of a balanced portfolio considering the  Physical Precious Metals option , being the 1st option Metal kept "close to your chest" and  the 2nd the likes of Bullionvault.

And the most important bit, just to paraphrase your disclaimer (sorry :)):

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Good evening all!

I'm a bit worried about what's been said on here about stockmarket index tracker funds because I've still got a lot of my investable pot in a collection of trackers (mostly unit trusts and OEICs) that each cover a different region within global markets. I have tried to protect my wealth a little by investing (diversifying?) in some PM miners and a few (reflation?) stocks (Vodafone, Centrica, BT, SSE) and also a small amount of physical silver (stored in a vault, not at home).

My strategy with the tracker funds was buy and long-term hold with dividends re-invested (accumulation units). I am about 20 years away from retirement. Obviously I can't predict the future but I think it's unlikely that I would need to sell my tracker funds Within the next 10 years (maybe 20 years).

With the above in mind, I'm just wondering what people here think about trackers (as long term hold from now on)? If the great crash that we're talking about were to happen in the next few years, I would expect that tracker funds would fall in value accordingly (since they're designed to track the market). But... wouldn't we expect the stock markets (globally) to eventually recover and the tracker funds also recover?

I imagine that trackers automatically trade (ie by software automation), but I guess that would be to periodically re-balance as the market-cap weightings of different stocks within the index fluctuate. I don't see why trackers should auto sell just because the market is falling as a whole?

I think someone was talking about the risks of ETFs spiraling down in a falling market. Is that specifically ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) or does the same risk apply to UTs (Unit Trusts) and OEICs (Open Ended Investment Companies)? There are subtle differences between ETFs (priced in real time like a stock) and UTs/OEICs (usually priced once per day and only orders placed before a cut-off time get executed at that day's price point).

I have a lot of sympathy with the views expressed on here and a lot of respect for everyone who has taken the time to express their opinions. I have taken some action based on what I've learned here (the PM mining stocks and physical silver in a vault). However, at the same time I feel reluctant to completely abandon my buy-low-cost-tracker-funds-and-long-term-hold-with-dividends-reinvested strategy.

I would be interested to hear peoples views on this.

1) Am I being foolish to think that I can simply hold my stock market index tracker funds long term (from now on for 10 years or more) and ride out the kind of crash that is being discussed on this thread?

2) Do people think that long standing principles such as (a) buy-and-long-term-hold of low cost index tracker funds, (b) pound-cost-averaging, (c) time-in-the-market-not-timing-the-market, are no longer applicable?

My own answers to the above would be:

1) No I'm not being foolish. The markets may crash and my tracker fund holdings fall in value accordingly, but as long as I hold long enough for the market to recover and the tracker funds track that recovery, I should not lose out. Plus, while the market is down, the dividends should be getting re-invested to buy more shares whilst they are cheap. The effect of that should get amplified as the markets rise.

2) No. Those principles are still good.

As you can see, I still believe in stockmarket index tracker funds. I do have a slight worry about what might happen if they become too popular (following the herd isn't always the best strategy), but even if trackers become the most popular investment going, I would guess that a lot of investors would not have the self-discipline to hold for the long term. Therefore, if I do hold for the long term, that could give me an edge.

...but that's just my opinion. Happy to hear other peoples opinions (even if you think I'm being a clueless imbecile, LOL!).


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

I suspect in the next crash return OF capital will become as important as return ON capital.

 

If the fund or institution in which your tracker sits goes bust, I doubt your position will be untouched.

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11 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Good evening all!

I'm a bit worried about what's been said on here about stockmarket index tracker funds because I've still got a lot of my investable pot in a collection of trackers (mostly unit trusts and OEICs) that each cover a different region within global markets. I have tried to protect my wealth a little by investing (diversifying?) in some PM miners and a few (reflation?) stocks (Vodafone, Centrica, BT, SSE) and also a small amount of physical silver (stored in a vault, not at home).

My strategy with the tracker funds was buy and long-term hold with dividends re-invested (accumulation units). I am about 20 years away from retirement. Obviously I can't predict the future but I think it's unlikely that I would need to sell my tracker funds Within the next 10 years (maybe 20 years).

With the above in mind, I'm just wondering what people here think about trackers (as long term hold from now on)? If the great crash that we're talking about were to happen in the next few years, I would expect that tracker funds would fall in value accordingly (since they're designed to track the market). But... wouldn't we expect the stock markets (globally) to eventually recover and the tracker funds also recover?

I imagine that trackers automatically trade (ie by software automation), but I guess that would be to periodically re-balance as the market-cap weightings of different stocks within the index fluctuate. I don't see why trackers should auto sell just because the market is falling as a whole?

I think someone was talking about the risks of ETFs spiraling down in a falling market. Is that specifically ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) or does the same risk apply to UTs (Unit Trusts) and OEICs (Open Ended Investment Companies)? There are subtle differences between ETFs (priced in real time like a stock) and UTs/OEICs (usually priced once per day and only orders placed before a cut-off time get executed at that day's price point).

I have a lot of sympathy with the views expressed on here and a lot of respect for everyone who has taken the time to express their opinions. I have taken some action based on what I've learned here (the PM mining stocks and physical silver in a vault). However, at the same time I feel reluctant to completely abandon my buy-low-cost-tracker-funds-and-long-term-hold-with-dividends-reinvested strategy.

I would be interested to hear peoples views on this.

1) Am I being foolish to think that I can simply hold my stock market index tracker funds long term (from now on for 10 years or more) and ride out the kind of crash that is being discussed on this thread?

2) Do people think that long standing principles such as (a) buy-and-long-term-hold of low cost index tracker funds, (b) pound-cost-averaging, (c) time-in-the-market-not-timing-the-market, are no longer applicable?

My own answers to the above would be:

1) No I'm not being foolish. The markets may crash and my tracker fund holdings fall in value accordingly, but as long as I hold long enough for the market to recover and the tracker funds track that recovery, I should not lose out. Plus, while the market is down, the dividends should be getting re-invested to buy more shares whilst they are cheap. The effect of that should get amplified as the markets rise.

2) No. Those principles are still good.

As you can see, I still believe in stockmarket index tracker funds. I do have a slight worry about what might happen if they become too popular (following the herd isn't always the best strategy), but even if trackers become the most popular investment going, I would guess that a lot of investors would not have the self-discipline to hold for the long term. Therefore, if I do hold for the long term, that could give me an edge.

...but that's just my opinion. Happy to hear other peoples opinions (even if you think I'm being a clueless imbecile, LOL!).


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

The whole idea behind passive investing is a sort of socratic acceptance that you aren't capable of knowing what the markets going to do.

Your quandary here is whether you're a passive investor riding the market, or an active investor who thinks he's smart enough to beat it.

So which is it?

You need to pick a strategy, and know how you'll react to events before they happen, rather than just riding the rollercoaster of buying stuff because it's popular (and therefore expensive), and selling it in a panic when it's lost you money.

I've done that in the past. It doesn't make you any money.

xD

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16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

This does grate with me a little...whilst I can appreciate that it's important to safe guard the financially illiterate they will still make the final decision yet have to pay for this compulsory advice...it just seems a bit rich that those (of whatever political colour) who have got us into the current mess believe that they need to offer me financial advice!

As for the Lifestyle type of pensions, is this not just what financial academics/books have proposed as the best approach anyway I.e. risk in the early stages to accumulate, and then tapering to higher %s of bonds/cash to protect the gains?

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16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its only the money purchase part (most is final salary) and its about £28k.The problem is because i can use that part for the tax free cash rather than from the final salary part they say i need financial advice because il lose a valuable benefit.To be fair to them that is true,but i already know that and would draw out from 55 to 68 at tax allowance level from my SIPP so lose nothing.My cousin is a financial advisor,but says his firm wont touch anything connected to final salary pensions as there is too much scope for miss selling complaints in the future etc.Iv decided il just kick my final salary pension in at 55 and use that £28k (or whatever its worth then) for the 25% tax free cash,or whatever % it comes out at below that.

DB, cashing in your pension at 55, can you not take the DC part as a number of lump sums between 55 to 68?...this way, say your DB part gave you £6850 pa, this would still leave you £5k of your yearly pa...this could be used to take a £5k lump sum pa of your DC pot...£2800 of this can also be reinvested in a pension tax free as part of your Annual Allowance (as per a previous discussion in this thread).

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18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

Isn’t it a case of if it’s worth more than £30k you need financial advice before you can transfer? Is there anything to stop you from transferring smaller amounts?

EDIT: My defined contribution pension with work had an equally bad selection of funds, and very high charges. It was only worth ~£20k so I could easily transfer it. 

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2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

This does grate with me a little...whilst I can appreciate that it's important to safe guard the financially illiterate they will still make the final decision yet have to pay for this compulsory advice...it just seems a bit rich that those (of whatever political colour) who have got us into the current mess believe that they need to offer me financial advice!

As for the Lifestyle type of pensions, is this not just what financial academics/books have proposed as the best approach anyway I.e. risk in the early stages to accumulate, and then tapering to higher %s of bonds/cash to protect the gains?

Mine was in a lifestyle fund. It was full of crap that someone in their twenties or thirties doesn’t need any exposure to. Commercial property and corporate bonds? No thanks.

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3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Isn’t it a case of if it’s worth more than £30k you need financial advice before you can transfer? Is there anything to stop you from transferring smaller amounts?

EDIT: My defined contribution pension with work had an equally bad selection of funds, and very high charges. It was only worth ~£20k so I could easily transfer it. 

Yes £30k if no other benefits can be lost.What stops mine being able to move is the fact i have a final salary linked to it,so that when i turn live i can take the 25% tax free cash 100% from the money purchase side so as not to dilute the final salary.It is a big benefit and can understand why people need to know the implications on it,but i already know that and dont intend to take any tax free cash as i intend to drawdown £14k a year (tax free allowance and tax free pension element).

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19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My old employer (Glaxosmithkline) money purchase fund choices are terrible.Uk tracker,global growth,a bond fund and cash.Utter rubbish.I tried to transfer to my SIPP,but i need financial advice before i can and its not a very big amount,stupid rules.I put it into cash a bit ago and will have to move it later.Most people pensions are in so called lifestyle accounts that go into bonds 5 years before pension age.Not good in the next cycle as bonds give back all their gains from 1982 onwards.An equity whack,then move into bonds as they enter a long bear.Its incredible to think most people pensions in the private sector are in tracker funds.

I think the pension protection rules, annoying as they are for people in the know, are required.

Just see the scam of tme welsh british steel pensions.

Now if was a rogue ifa doing this. The regulator needs to gut the ifa of all assets anc jail them.

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2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

DB, cashing in your pension at 55, can you not take the DC part as a number of lump sums between 55 to 68?...this way, say your DB part gave you £6850 pa, this would still leave you £5k of your yearly pa...this could be used to take a £5k lump sum pa of your DC pot...£2800 of this can also be reinvested in a pension tax free as part of your Annual Allowance (as per a previous discussion in this thread).

I think i should be able to take the full £28k as the tax free at 55 anyway as its around that level of 25% of the value of that + the final salary part.It will depend on how big my SIPP is at that time really.I might use a few years not taking anything and as you say put in £2800 a year.At the moment the SIPP wouldnt get me £9k a year. (£2600 a year final salary at 55+ SIPP to equal tax alowance)The key is i want it empty by 68 without paying tax because state and final salary pension are just under the tax allowance and thats where i want them.I have no intention of paying any income tax from 55 onwards.Most of my income comes from investments and its nearly all inside ISAs wrappers.I should be able to take £17k a year tax free from 55 and £25k a year tax free from 68.I have very low outgoings so those numbers are way above what i need,especially the £25k a year.Everything assumes standing still of course,not forwards or backwards.

 

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17 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Mine was in a lifestyle fund. It was full of crap that someone in their twenties or thirties doesn’t need any exposure to. Commercial property and corporate bonds? No thanks.

Yes and i wonder have many of the bonds in these lifestyle funds are junk.I put my dads PEPs (before ISAs) into bond funds when he was made redundant way back in the early 90s and they have been fantastic investments for his needs.He has taken an average of 8% a year in income and when i sold him out of them and transferred into his ISA last year they had also more than trebled.I can see the next cycle giving up all of those gains.Those 5 years before you can access your pension are critical,and the severe lack of funds available to most people is a disgrace really.If we do get a stock sell off then a bond bear with a reflation someone 7 years from retirement now could end up seeing a huge loss.Given DC pensions are poor anyway its not a good mix.

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Just twiddling this afternoon and found myself looking at Global X Funds and checking out our friend SIL.

Down a lot recently now it seems... haven't found it yet available in SIPP in HL site. Anybody any ideas for alternatives? Leonardratso I'm heading over to check out what's available on that Smith and Williamson site...

 

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1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Just twiddling this afternoon and found myself looking at Global X Funds and checking out our friend SIL.

Down a lot recently now it seems... haven't found it yet available in SIPP in HL site. Anybody any ideas for alternatives? Leonardratso I'm heading over to check out what's available on that Smith and Williamson site...

 

Iv been buying Majestic Silver,Endeavor Silver corp and a few Great Panther Silver.I miss all those US funds.Over the years KOL,URA and all the country funds were very useful.Incredible to think the EU has banned us from buying them.

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27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying Majestic Silver,Endeavor Silver corp and a few Great Panther Silver.I miss all those US funds.Over the years KOL,URA and all the country funds were very useful.Incredible to think the EU has banned us from buying them.

Regarding Great Panther, be aware that their 3Q production report was rather disappointing, to put it mildly.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/great-panther-silver-reports-third-quarter-2018-production-results-and-provides-corporate-update-697187671.html?tc=eml_mycnw

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1 hour ago, Thorn said:

Just twiddling this afternoon and found myself looking at Global X Funds and checking out our friend SIL.

Down a lot recently now it seems... haven't found it yet available in SIPP in HL site. Anybody any ideas for alternatives? Leonardratso I'm heading over to check out what's available on that Smith and Williamson site...

 

I think in the UK you will have to go with ETFS Physical or ishares equivalent. Alternatively will have to be individual shares

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23 hours ago, Clueless Imbecile said:

Good evening all!

I'm a bit worried about what's been said on here about stockmarket index tracker funds because I've still got a lot of my investable pot in a collection of trackers (mostly unit trusts and OEICs) that each cover a different region within global markets. I have tried to protect my wealth a little by investing (diversifying?) in some PM miners and a few (reflation?) stocks (Vodafone, Centrica, BT, SSE) and also a small amount of physical silver (stored in a vault, not at home).

My strategy with the tracker funds was buy and long-term hold with dividends re-invested (accumulation units). I am about 20 years away from retirement. Obviously I can't predict the future but I think it's unlikely that I would need to sell my tracker funds Within the next 10 years (maybe 20 years).

With the above in mind, I'm just wondering what people here think about trackers (as long term hold from now on)? If the great crash that we're talking about were to happen in the next few years, I would expect that tracker funds would fall in value accordingly (since they're designed to track the market). But... wouldn't we expect the stock markets (globally) to eventually recover and the tracker funds also recover?

I imagine that trackers automatically trade (ie by software automation), but I guess that would be to periodically re-balance as the market-cap weightings of different stocks within the index fluctuate. I don't see why trackers should auto sell just because the market is falling as a whole?

I think someone was talking about the risks of ETFs spiraling down in a falling market. Is that specifically ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) or does the same risk apply to UTs (Unit Trusts) and OEICs (Open Ended Investment Companies)? There are subtle differences between ETFs (priced in real time like a stock) and UTs/OEICs (usually priced once per day and only orders placed before a cut-off time get executed at that day's price point).

I have a lot of sympathy with the views expressed on here and a lot of respect for everyone who has taken the time to express their opinions. I have taken some action based on what I've learned here (the PM mining stocks and physical silver in a vault). However, at the same time I feel reluctant to completely abandon my buy-low-cost-tracker-funds-and-long-term-hold-with-dividends-reinvested strategy.

I would be interested to hear peoples views on this.

1) Am I being foolish to think that I can simply hold my stock market index tracker funds long term (from now on for 10 years or more) and ride out the kind of crash that is being discussed on this thread?

2) Do people think that long standing principles such as (a) buy-and-long-term-hold of low cost index tracker funds, (b) pound-cost-averaging, (c) time-in-the-market-not-timing-the-market, are no longer applicable?

My own answers to the above would be:

1) No I'm not being foolish. The markets may crash and my tracker fund holdings fall in value accordingly, but as long as I hold long enough for the market to recover and the tracker funds track that recovery, I should not lose out. Plus, while the market is down, the dividends should be getting re-invested to buy more shares whilst they are cheap. The effect of that should get amplified as the markets rise.

2) No. Those principles are still good.

As you can see, I still believe in stockmarket index tracker funds. I do have a slight worry about what might happen if they become too popular (following the herd isn't always the best strategy), but even if trackers become the most popular investment going, I would guess that a lot of investors would not have the self-discipline to hold for the long term. Therefore, if I do hold for the long term, that could give me an edge.

...but that's just my opinion. Happy to hear other peoples opinions (even if you think I'm being a clueless imbecile, LOL!).


Cheers,
Clueless Imbecile

Disclaimer: I am not an expert. Anything I post here is just my opinions, which may not be factually correct. My posts are intended purely for the purpose of debate and are not to be taken as advice. If you act on any of the above then you do so entirely at your own risk. I do not accept any liability.

No need to sell when you need to drawdown just switch to income units.

Have you tried to sell OEIC's? on a good day it can take a while to through. Good luck during a crash. Go look on reddit/ukpersonalfinance this last week and see people asking about VG Global All Cap. No one is selling shit if the big kahuna strikes.

It will be mechanical throughout. Even the actives/institutions are utilising algos and bots.

Have a plan and stick to it. Seems like we're similar in the way we're positioning. I'm not concerened about the indexes, in fact I just see it as I'll be buying at a discount and vice versa benefitting in the shorter term with the defensives.

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7 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Regarding Great Panther, be aware that their 3Q production report was rather disappointing, to put it mildly.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/great-panther-silver-reports-third-quarter-2018-production-results-and-provides-corporate-update-697187671.html?tc=eml_mycnw

Yeah the usual production miss,but they go in as one of 12 and my lowest silver holding.Endeavor lowered guidance as well Thursday,but i like them and Majestic if silver runs,if not they will inflict pain.

 

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i quite liked SSLV and SGLD in the past, pair of physical precious metal CTF's, priced in usd, certainly never had any trouble buying and selling them, think they are invesco by company.

In fact just checked and i actually still have £450worth of SSLV in an old broker, looks about 10% down since i bought it aug 2017, not too bad for a PM.

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On 11/10/2018 at 09:07, DurhamBorn said:

Gold ,fags up xD. Notice @sancho panza short call looking good on WHsmith,they getting whacked.Lots of profit warnings out there and companies having to really tighten the ship.

Indeed.Junior Panza was introduced to footfall researcha few week sback outside the WH Smith in Leicester when I watched the tills there for a few minutes waiting for Mrs P and the other kids.The indivdual tills were working at a snails pace with customers buying small low margin stuff like Dead tree Newspapers and the odd card.Even on a saturday morning which is Leicester centre rush hour,it was poor.

Extrapolated out,their High St turnover is poor and is based on a dwindling demographic-lot of old people who's mobility is more likely to reduce over five years than get beeter.Hence the follwoing headlien which really didn't surprise me.I havent cut my short yet and will likely build the position over the next year or so-with a few trades in and out.

I exited a host of other trades Friday as my shift was 1200-0001 and so had the time.Was unable to close any thursday.I've left a few running but feel/felt this wasn't the big sell off.Was prob up 60% on capital deployed Thu close but was 40% by the time I was able to close due to having to get the kids and Mrs P off to a playgroup.By such threads hangs the fortunes of my life,but I don't obsess about it.

Strangely I'm thinking of going long on IG with a few shares I think are due a bounce eg Pru/ITRK as I'd rather do that than actually own the stock.

I got a lot more lucky with these shorts than my PM miner purchases last year B|

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/wh-smith-restructure-high-street-063243710.html

'(Reuters) - Shares in WH Smith (SMWH.L) fell more than 8 percent on Thursday after the books, newspaper and stationery retailer said it would close six high street stores and a franchisee initiative as part of a restructuring to cope with weaker consumer spending.

The company said group pretax profit fell 4 percent to 134 million pounds in the year ending in August and high street trading profit fell 3 percent to 60 million pounds.

Hargreaves Lansdown equity analyst George Salmon said WH Smith was still delivering underlying profit growth "but that performance masks the fact WH Smith's high street division is facing some pretty tough challenges."'

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