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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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On 11/10/2018 at 13:59, Alifelessbinary said:

I know it’s rough out there, but we’re not quite at the FSCS discussion yet!

Always better to have it before the fact

On 11/10/2018 at 15:05, Majorpain said:

10% now in New York, might have to treat myself to some more sovereigns if this run continues.  Converting PM miner profits into solid metal is my favourite way to earn wealth if you can get the buying/selling timing right!

That's a really intriguing strategy I'd never thought of.

On 11/10/2018 at 16:15, DurhamBorn said:

Good job you put me off Tahoe,Harmony up  18% in South Africa :Beer: ,bit miffed with Endeavor Silver though its only up 4% and Majestic 5% .Now we will have to see if the massive net short in gold and silver holds its nerve and shorts more,or starts to throw the towel in.Those commercials who went net long for the first time ever will be asking for delivery.I went up the A1 to buy a £350 cross trainer for £50 off Gumtree (middle class women giving stuff away) and come back to some massive greens,.Could be a flash in the pan,but happy my rubber band work still looks like it works and shows the energy in these stocks when the sector turns.Profit taking will kick in of course and some who will be just glad to get out of the sector.

Ditto @kibuc some great commentary on the PM miners.

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On 11/10/2018 at 21:34, Admiral Pepe said:

The show is just getting started. I wouldn't be surprised we see a few more ups and downs before a big one strikes

I agree pepe,there's going to be a lot of bumps to the bottom

On 11/10/2018 at 21:52, DurhamBorn said:

Thats great Bear Hug,and in a market getting hammered,the portfolio doing exactly what its meant to then,be 100% contrarian.My portfolio hit a record today.My biggest holding was Harmony (no 1 on my rubber band list) and think it was the biggest or one of the biggest increases today (16%).All the others did superb as well.I think whats needed is a steady down draft in the equity markets,we dont want a really strong sell off as the miners might get sucked in.A lot will depend on if gold goes back down or if the record net short hedge funds lose their bottle and try to close positions.The commercials who went net long will want delivery.My indicators were correct and spotted the turn at the most bearish point and  the rubber band stocks performed.They have had a lot of problems and are stretched right back creating a lot of potential velocity but are only effective at turning points hence needing the indicators to provide a none emotional buy signal.

We dont want a crash though because that will take the miners down,we want slow burn pain inflicted on 99.9% of people until everyone is jumping into the sector.First part done,2nd part is can the indicators signal when to sell?.Crazy shit this thread and everyone on it xD

 

Steady down draft in equity markets would suit my strategy-big sell offs create instability

On 11/10/2018 at 22:07, DurhamBorn said:

Looks a very solid fund that and potential to do very well for anyone not wanting to buy individual miners.My new job monday has a pension,its invested in world trackers ,50% north America,wonder if i can add that fund instead ;)

Good luck.Don't forget your pack up.It'll break you buying sandwiches fro  the local shop.

On 12/10/2018 at 06:20, Barnsey said:

Thanks for the recommendation, a good alternative to Blackrock Gold and General. Interestingly was on the HL Wealth 150 until 2015

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/research-and-news/fund-news--and--alerts/smith-and-williamson-global-gold-and-resources-removal-from-the-wealth-150

In other news:

UK banks expect biggest mortgage lending cutback since 2008: Bank of England

https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1ML0ZT

LONDON (Reuters) - Increasingly cautious British lenders expect to scale back mortgage lending in the next three months by the greatest extent since the depths of the financial crisis in late 2008, a Bank of England survey showed on Thursday.

According to a friend who's a surveyor a lot of the bigger banks are downgrading mortgage offers post survey.

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On 12/10/2018 at 17:14, Admiral Pepe said:

I think it's difficult to know if Trump is attacking the Fed geninuely or not. He's a master tactician and if the markets are going to correct/crash he needs someone else to blame. Look what he was saying back in 2011.

DpOrGcGXgAAVsTy.jpg:large

I think Trump is a bright guy.He's moves with a lot of smoke and mirrors.I've said before his whole strategy is now focued on the Rust Belt states 2020.

He'll sink Wall St as soon as look at it.His selection of Powell was a game changer by any standards

On 13/10/2018 at 13:27, azzuri82 said:

The cover of this week's Economist just landed. 

It's this sort of 'mainstream' coverage we're getting at the moment that makes me doubt this really is 'the big one'. We've been getting a lot of this in the media recently. Maybe it's just that the writing is so obviously now on the wall?

Will share if there's any interesting tidbits.

15394335205041946111730.jpg

I remember reading an Economist lead article about the US hosuing bubble in 2003 or 4 when travelling through Zurich airport.They were years early.

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21 hours ago, wherebee said:

I suspect in the next crash return OF capital will become as important as return ON capital.

 

If the fund or institution in which your tracker sits goes bust, I doubt your position will be untouched.

That's an excellent rule of thumb

13 hours ago, SpectrumFX said:

The whole idea behind passive investing is a sort of socratic acceptance that you aren't capable of knowing what the markets going to do.

Your quandary here is whether you're a passive investor riding the market, or an active investor who thinks he's smart enough to beat it.

So which is it?

You need to pick a strategy, and know how you'll react to events before they happen, rather than just riding the rollercoaster of buying stuff because it's popular (and therefore expensive), and selling it in a panic when it's lost you money.

I've done that in the past. It doesn't make you any money.

xD

What if you're an active investor who knows he can't beat the market?I think that's where I am.

I think each strategy suits different eras myself.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Regarding Great Panther, be aware that their 3Q production report was rather disappointing, to put it mildly.

https://www.newswire.ca/news-releases/great-panther-silver-reports-third-quarter-2018-production-results-and-provides-corporate-update-697187671.html?tc=eml_mycnw

Are there any good sites for the layman to read this sort of stuff kibuc.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

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Purely speaking about Canadian companies...

Canadian Insider is quite good. Search for the stock (or create a wachlist) and then expand the News bit to see the latest.

https://m.canadianinsider.com/

All Canadian companies have to file documents with SEDAR...

https://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm

There’s a US equivalent called EDGAR.

Will be pleased to hear if Kibuc knows of a whole market website or anything better.

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, Thorn said:

Just twiddling this afternoon and found myself looking at Global X Funds and checking out our friend SIL.

Down a lot recently now it seems... haven't found it yet available in SIPP in HL site. Anybody any ideas for alternatives? Leonardratso I'm heading over to check out what's available on that Smith and Williamson site...

 

What do you think about Sprott Physical Gold and Silver (CEF.U)? OK in SIPP, ISA Lifetime ISA on HL

Quote

The Trust was created to invest and hold substantially all of its assets in physical gold bullion and silver bullion. The Trust seeks to provide a secure, convenient and exchange-traded investment alternative for investors interested in holding physical gold bullion and silver bullion without the inconvenience that is typical of a direct investment in holding physical gold and silver bullion. The Trust invests primarily in long-term holdings of unencumbered, fully allocated, physical gold bullion and silver bullion and will not speculate with regard to short-term changes in gold and silver prices

They bought the Central Fund of Canada's physical holdings earlier this year http://www.centralfund.com/

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Are there any good sites for the layman to read this sort of stuff kibuc.

Thanks for sharing your knowledge.

To be honest, I'm simply following some people on Twatter who are so much better and more experienced in the field.

https://twitter.com/EconomicAlpha - he recommended Kirkland Lake and Wesdome way before it was cool, the former back in 2016 and the latter @2 CAD. Has a great hunch for production numbers.
 

https://twitter.com/IKN_Mark - a very angry man who constantly trashes shitty companies, and there's quite a lot of them. Keeps a special place in his ring of hell for Newgold and Tahoe :) Runs a blog and offers a paid weekly newsletter. Delivered some big news a few days before any media outlets out there, including Barrick merger.

 

https://twitter.com/RonStew12139302 - can read exploration numbers and drill results like it's nothing. Worked in the industry for over 30 years and held various executive positions. Unfortunately, has gone much more quite ever since he got a position at Guyana Goldfields.

 

There's a lot more knowledgable people in the Twattersphere but those 3 keep me covered well enough, as they will usually retweet anything interesting.

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Screen-Shot-2018-10-15-at-06.48.27.png

Construction is barely positive for 2018, not a sign of a healthy economy, especially since house building is included in that figure!  Id put money that the 2019 and 2020 figures are vastly overoptimistic as well.

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1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Sibanye is on an absolute tear, following a double-digit gain on Thu with another one this morning. +12% so far.

Is the takeover of Lonmin still on the cards? Lonmin seems to be moving in lockstep. Up 16% this morning.

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Just now, Castlevania said:

Is the takeover of Lonmin still on the cards? Lonmin seems to be moving in lockstep. Up 16% this morning.

It was a month ago and I haven't seen an update since then. Maybe @DurhamBorn knows more.
https://www.ft.com/content/bfc2c926-bb47-11e8-8274-55b72926558f

 

Up 20% on the day so far and +75% (!) from just two month ago. Damn.

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12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think Trump is a bright guy.He's moves with a lot of smoke and mirrors.I've said before his whole strategy is now focued on the Rust Belt states 2020.

He'll sink Wall St as soon as look at it.His selection of Powell was a game changer by any standards

I remember reading an Economist lead article about the US hosuing bubble in 2003 or 4 when travelling through Zurich airport.They were years early.

This article from thirty years ago seems to be getting a bit of attention just now, mainly due to the year in the picture:

Image result for the economist get ready for a world currency

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-07-09/economist-get-ready-world-currency-2018

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Anyone been thinking about pm (especially gold) miners as take over targets?  Been discussed in the specialist media on and off for a while now.  Point being made the majors can only grow by acquisition.  Another factor in addition to them being leveraged to the physical PMs?  Maybe the GDX chart shows a bit of front running?  Good time to start identifying targets? 

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18 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anyone been thinking about pm (especially gold) miners as take over targets?  Been discussed in the specialist media on and off for a while now.  Point being made the majors can only grow by acquisition.  Another factor in addition to them being leveraged to the physical PMs?  Maybe the GDX chart shows a bit of front running?  Good time to start identifying targets? 

I haven't done any homework on this one, but my gut feeling says B2Gold. Almost 1mil oz p.a. production, including 430k p.a. from a super-low-cost Fekola mine (AISC 445$ /oz in Q2). Large enough to be attractive, yet small enough for the big boys to swallow.

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And my suggestion would be Tinka Resources, although this is primarily a Zinc resource not PMs. They’re an exploreco based in Peru with a very substantial resource that they’ve just finished drilling for the year (see news report today for more great results). Stock has taken a bit of a hammering due to zinc prices, the trade war and a placement they ran so I’m currently down as a result but still optimistic of a takeover. 

Any readers would be well advised to do their own research though. As I said, I’m currently down on this one so that might tell you all you need to know.

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6 hours ago, kibuc said:

To be honest, I'm simply following some people on Twatter who are so much better and more experienced in the field.

https://twitter.com/EconomicAlpha - he recommended Kirkland Lake and Wesdome way before it was cool, the former back in 2016 and the latter @2 CAD. Has a great hunch for production numbers.
 

https://twitter.com/IKN_Mark - a very angry man who constantly trashes shitty companies, and there's quite a lot of them. Keeps a special place in his ring of hell for Newgold and Tahoe :) Runs a blog and offers a paid weekly newsletter. Delivered some big news a few days before any media outlets out there, including Barrick merger.

 

https://twitter.com/RonStew12139302 - can read exploration numbers and drill results like it's nothing. Worked in the industry for over 30 years and held various executive positions. Unfortunately, has gone much more quite ever since he got a position at Guyana Goldfields.

 

There's a lot more knowledgable people in the Twattersphere but those 3 keep me covered well enough, as they will usually retweet anything interesting.

Really can't thank you enough for this sort of tip Kibuc.As I'm always banging on about,I'm very time poor at the moment and I know I need to get to grips with the detail of the PM miners more than I currently am.I'll have a butchers at his paid service and maybe give it a month or two.

@Errol put me onto Investment research dynamics which has been enlightening. and DB put me onto  Kaplan http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

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16 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Purely speaking about Canadian companies...

Canadian Insider is quite good. Search for the stock (or create a wachlist) and then expand the News bit to see the latest.

https://m.canadianinsider.com/

All Canadian companies have to file documents with SEDAR...

https://www.sedar.com/search/search_form_pc_en.htm

There’s a US equivalent called EDGAR.

Will be pleased to hear if Kibuc knows of a whole market website or anything better.

Cheers lavalas.

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1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

And my suggestion would be Tinka Resources, although this is primarily a Zinc resource not PMs. They’re an exploreco based in Peru with a very substantial resource that they’ve just finished drilling for the year (see news report today for more great results). Stock has taken a bit of a hammering due to zinc prices, the trade war and a placement they ran so I’m currently down as a result but still optimistic of a takeover. 

Any readers would be well advised to do their own research though. As I said, I’m currently down on this one so that might tell you all you need to know.

Or maybe steer clear of this until Zinc looks a bit more positive. Down on good news today xD

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

SBGL and EGO (and NGD) are ripping away again.Nice.

Im at my new job and my phones showing big greens in my miners,but for how long?.

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36 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im at my new job and my phones showing big greens in my miners,but for how long?.

its true they have a habit of turbo in the morning and then back to earth all USA afternoon to finish even or red. Most times of course its just red followed by more red.

Hey, back to work you, cant have you slacking on your first day looking at your phone, leave that for the 3 hour stint in trap 3 in week 11. Oh, and start a 70's style union and get everyone out on strike because of the lack of LBGTQ workers/marxists(or any excuse) etc etc, turn it into a proper british leyland, like carry on at your convenience.

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Inoperational Bumblebee
9 hours ago, kibuc said:

Sibanye is on an absolute tear, following a double-digit gain on Thu with another one this morning. +12% so far.

 

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

SBGL and EGO (and NGD) are ripping away again.Nice.

For us first time mining company investors, it's reassurring to see how much an increase in PM prices is amplified in the miners. I wondered if I was doing the right thing for a while, but I'm a believer now. Currently up 13% on FRES, 24% on HMY and 41% on SBGL! Even the dogs are seeing a reasonable comeback. Would be even better if cable was in a different place.

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2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

its true they have a habit of turbo in the morning and then back to earth all USA afternoon to finish even or red. Most times of course its just red followed by more red.

Hey, back to work you, cant have you slacking on your first day looking at your phone, leave that for the 3 hour stint in trap 3 in week 11. Oh, and start a 70's style union and get everyone out on strike because of the lack of LBGTQ workers/marxists(or any excuse) etc etc, turn it into a proper british leyland, like carry on at your convenience.

I have also heard it referred to as `The Library` but in honour to DB I think we should now christen it `The  Bear Pit` :-)

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