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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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sleepwello'nights
1 hour ago, Admiral Pepe said:

 

Although I've yet to experience significant delays, they always seem to have issues getting people boarded in an orderly fashion, which causes minor delays. Which given the size of the prop planes isn't great, how have they not mastered this yet? Must eat into the efficiencies and getting the planes turned around. Put that across the fleet....

 

I've read that the most efficient passenger seating methods are the least popular with passengers:

https://jalopnik.com/mythbusters-proves-most-airlines-board-planes-all-wrong-1636981904

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5 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

I seem to go through periods of preferring one budget airline over another. I've had it with Easyjet completely now - we've just booked with RyanAir for the first time in around 5 years to go to Berlin in November - although RyanAir are bastards - at least they fuck you over transparently.

Ha!  Good luck with Ryanair...

[At least Tegel is pleasant enough (if basic) and you can even walk into town fairly easily (takes about an hour).  Brandenburg is clearly going to be a right pain, but at least the efficient Germans realise this and refuse to finish it]

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13 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Agreed, I can see schemes like this becoming more common, Stagecoach being well placed to benefit:

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/cities/2018/oct/15/i-leave-the-car-at-home-how-free-buses-are-revolutionising-one-french-city

Yes i think its certain.Free travel for under 21s as well (or very reduced travel say £50 a year pass).There is also the chance big tech might partner with the big transports.Longer term cars on demand would be a big threat,that is unless the transports own them and its very possible we get deals between car makers/big tech/transports @sancho panza mentioned their balance sheets have a bit too much debt and id agree they do.Id like to see those debt levels come down the next few years.

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sleepwello'nights
2 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I won't touch Ryanair again after the strikes last year and they cancelled the whole LGW-Belfast route completely messing up our Xmas plans. It was only our second time using them too and the allure of cheap fares comes back to bite you in the long run. 

 

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2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Considering the volume of bad economic news during 2018, does anyone else feel like things should 'officially' be worse than they are being portrayed? It feels weird to me. Is this what the end of a major over-extended credit cycle looks like?

Absolutely, the Pink Floyd song "comfortably numb" comes to mind. Essentially, everything begins and ends in the USA, until that breaks we all just waddle along.

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4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i think its certain.Free travel for under 21s as well (or very reduced travel say £50 a year pass).There is also the chance big tech might partner with the big transports.Longer term cars on demand would be a big threat,that is unless the transports own them and its very possible we get deals between car makers/big tech/transports @sancho panza mentioned their balance sheets have a bit too much debt and id agree they do.Id like to see those debt levels come down the next few years.

Only just found out the firm my company use in London, Green Tomato Cars (a huge presence in the city, now adopting Hydrogen cars), are owned by Transdev.

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6 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Absolutely, the Pink Floyd song "comfortably numb" comes to mind. Essentially, everything begins and ends in the USA, until that breaks we all just waddle along.

I'm glad it's not just me. In the absence of anything technical or useful to add to the thread in terms of data, I can only state my overall feelings toward all of the things I read. The Morpheus-like nagging that there's something wrong with the world grows on a daily basis.

It's kinda stressful.

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1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

Absolutely, the Pink Floyd song "comfortably numb" comes to mind. Essentially, everything begins and ends in the USA, until that breaks we all just waddle along.

I told them on the other place the US long bond drives everything in the west including UK house prices.Not the full moves in things of course,but the thing that sits under everything.Of course most of them didnt understand that at all and see it as rubbish.Complete lack of understanding about how liquidity works its way around economies.Like you say the US (and the dollar) is the key.

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21 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Have you looked into their new cabin baggage charges? O.o

I stay well away from Ryanair now, made great use of em' back in the day when you got genuine £9.99 returns, although I now hear reports the customer service has improved. Just too risky for me with the ongoing threat of pilot strikes etc. Really sad to hear of your view of Easyjet as I still view them as the best in Europe after Norwegian.

Yeah know about the cabin baggage charges - we are taking our 14-month old daughter with us so just paying the extra £30 for a hold bag as we have to put the buggy in the hold and wait at the carousel anyways.

They have highlighted these new charges as being important to more efficiently load/unloading passengers at the gate - be interesting to see if it works.

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4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm glad it's not just me. In the absence of anything technical or useful to add to the thread in terms of data, I can only state my overall feelings toward all of the things I read. The Morpheus-like nagging that there's something wrong with the world grows on a daily basis.

It's kinda stressful.

Isn't it, I've been in this state of continued doom analysis since August 2015, now I wonder where the past 3 years have gone and what I could have done with my time more wisely instead of obsessing over everything economical, but I've learned a lot in this time and do find it (sadly?) incredibly interesting. Because I over-analyse and fill much of every day absorbing hundreds of tweets and articles, FWIW I can reassure that it would take a miracle (I can hear the QE desensitised sighs already xD) to turn this negative momentum around. All eyes on next summer being the crucial turning point in the US for interest rates, unless we get a black swan sooner.

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2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I'm glad it's not just me. In the absence of anything technical or useful to add to the thread in terms of data, I can only state my overall feelings toward all of the things I read. The Morpheus-like nagging that there's something wrong with the world grows on a daily basis.

It's kinda stressful.

How people feel "sentiment" is hugely important.In my PM indicators sentiment is right up there.What people are starting to feel is the end of a dis-inflation cycle.Its that feeling that its getting harder and harder.Cost are going up,but you cant pass them on.Margins coming down and down,where free cash cant cover outgoings and so companies eat themselves.

As a contrarian i look ahead and i see a distribution cycle alongside a reflation.That means only a few areas will see gains.Nothing to fear,there are huge wealth making chances coming,we only need to catch a few of them to do just fine,and i know we will catch more than a few.

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4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

As a contrarian i look ahead and i see a distribution cycle alongside a reflation.That means only a few areas will see gains.Nothing to fear,there are huge wealth making chances coming,we only need to catch a few of them to do just fine,and i know we will catch more than a few.

That is a sweet sweet paragraph.

:)

Happy to be along for the ride.

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19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I told them on the other place the US long bond drives everything in the west including UK house prices.Not the full moves in things of course,but the thing that sits under everything.Of course most of them didnt understand that at all and see it as rubbish.Complete lack of understanding about how liquidity works its way around economies.Like you say the US (and the dollar) is the key.

You can only fight so much against ignorance, bit like the current argument that the SE housing market is suffering because of Brexit whilst "cheaper" areas of the UK are still appreciating or at least holding firm as immune. Funny how the exact same dynamic is occuring right now in the US, and I'm pretty sure they aren't trying to negotiate a "Nexit". Classic late cycle, areas of highest value/bubbles turn first, desperate buyers relocating to cheaper areas get burnt last.

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Gordie Lastchance
1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i think its certain.Free travel for under 21s as well (or very reduced travel say £50 a year pass).There is also the chance big tech might partner with the big transports.Longer term cars on demand would be a big threat,that is unless the transports own them and its very possible we get deals between car makers/big tech/transports @sancho panza mentioned their balance sheets have a bit too much debt and id agree they do.Id like to see those debt levels come down the next few years.

Talking about tech, I dunno if the following has been mentioned before re Stagecoach. Any views on here about it?

This is the link:

https://www.alexander-dennis.com/media/news/2018/july/stagecoach-trials-uks-first-full-sized-driverless-bus/

This is the article pasted:

 

Work is underway to trial the UK’s first full-sized driverless bus. 

Transport operator Stagecoach has partnered with bus manufacturer Alexander Dennis Limited (ADL) and technology company Fusion Processing to produce a single deck autonomous bus.

Once complete, the ADL Enviro200 vehicle will be completely autonomous and able to operate without a driver in an off-road environment. The technology also delivers road safety benefits when driven in manual mode.

Work on the vehicle is being carried out at ADL’s site in Guildford and the bus is expected to be ready for use by the end of this year.

In the short term, the bus will be used in autonomous mode only within the depot environment, to carry out movements such as parking and moving into the fuelling station and bus wash. Using self-driving vehicles within depots more widely could help improve safety, efficiency and space utilisation within the depot.

Legal restrictions mean the vehicle will not be used in autonomous mode in passenger service for some time. However the system can be used straight away to help improve the safety of road users. For example, when the bus is driven in manual mode, the sensor system on the bus, whilst not engaged to drive the vehicle, can still be used to provide assistance to the driver by warning of cyclists or pedestrians that may be in the blind spot or arrive unexpectedly close to the vehicle.

Over time, autonomous bus technology is expected to be used more widely, including on services carrying passengers, dependent on legal developments. 

Stagecoach UK Bus Engineering Director Sam Greer said: “Stagecoach has long been at the heart of innovation within the bus industry and this is an exciting trial that will deliver the UK’s first fully autonomous single deck bus. 

“We look forward to working with our partners on this project which we believe could, in time, help improve safety and efficiency within our depots, and over the longer term, help transform bus travel in the future.”

The Stagecoach bus will be fitted with the CAVstar® system provided by Fusion Processing Ltd. CAVstar® was utilised successfully in the UK’s largest public trial of autonomous vehicles to date, in Greenwich earlier this year, and a number of other projects.

The system uses multiple sensor types, including radar, laser, camera and ultrasound, along with satellite navigation to detect and avoid objects, in all weathers, day and night, and plan an optimum path for the vehicle.

Jim Hutchinson, CEO of Fusion Processing Ltd said: “We’re delighted Stagecoach and Alexander Dennis have selected our CAVstar® product, the sensor and control system that enables autonomous vehicles. CAVstar® will offer increased safety and efficiency, and will be demonstrated in the Stagecoach trials later this year. “

Ken Scott, Group Engineering Director at ADL, commented, “ADL is renowned for harnessing the latest technology solutions to enhance our products and services to benefit our customers, their passengers and the wider environment. We’re excited to be working with Stagecoach and Fusion Processing on this innovative project. In the first instance it will deliver real and demonstrable improvement to efficiency and safety in depots, while taking another significant step on our journey to bringing fully autonomous vehicles to market.”

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes i think its certain.Free travel for under 21s as well (or very reduced travel say £50 a year pass).There is also the chance big tech might partner with the big transports.Longer term cars on demand would be a big threat,that is unless the transports own them and its very possible we get deals between car makers/big tech/transports @sancho panza mentioned their balance sheets have a bit too much debt and id agree they do.Id like to see those debt levels come down the next few years.

Read a thing about Audi testing car share scheme video seems to show the rough idea

driverless cabs will be huge if it works if you only need a car a few times a week

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Democorruptcy
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I told them on the other place the US long bond drives everything in the west including UK house prices.Not the full moves in things of course,but the thing that sits under everything.Of course most of them didnt understand that at all and see it as rubbish.Complete lack of understanding about how liquidity works its way around economies.Like you say the US (and the dollar) is the key.

I'm not convinced about that now.

The Mansion House £5bn to the BoE to leverage up to £750bn bank lending might be enough liquidity to cover mortgage lending every year. It doesn't even have to be signed off by the Treasury. I think we have gone HPI banana. We aren't exporting houses as a product but they need foreigners to buy them.

Quote

 

In political science, the term banana republic describes a politically unstable country with an economy dependent upon the exportation of a limited-resource product, such as bananas or minerals. In 1901, the American author O. Henry coined the term to describe Honduras and neighbouring countries under economic exploitation by U.S. corporations, such as the United Fruit Company. Typically, a banana republic has a society of extremely stratified social classes, usually a large impoverished working class and a ruling-class plutocracy, composed of the business, political and military elites of that society.[1] Such a ruling-class oligarchy control the primary sector of the economy by way of the exploitation of labour;[2] thus, the term banana republic is a pejorative descriptor for a servile dictatorship that abets and supports, for kickbacks, the exploitation of large-scale plantation agriculture, especially banana cultivation.[2]

In economics, a banana republic is a country with an economy of state capitalism, by which economic model the country is operated as a private commercial enterprise for the exclusive profit of the ruling class. Such exploitation is enabled by collusion between the state and favored economic monopolies, in which the profit, derived from the private exploitation of public lands, is private property, while the debts incurred thereby are the financial responsibility of the public treasury. Such an imbalanced economy remains limited by the uneven economic development of town and country, and usually reduces the national currency into devalued banknotes (paper money), rendering the country ineligible for international development credit.[

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Banana_republic

 

 

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5 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Considering the volume of bad economic news during 2018, does anyone else feel like things should 'officially' be worse than they are being portrayed? It feels weird to me. Is this what the end of a major over-extended credit cycle looks like?

Crime rose to new record highs with 5.6 million offences recorded.

Stabbings 41,884
Rape increased 21%
Sexual assaults increased 18%
Homoside increased 14%
Robbery increased 22%

Police numbers cut by over 20’000 since 2010

not exactly smashing it like the Tories keep telling us.. 

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1 hour ago, macca said:

Crime rose to new record highs with 5.6 million offences recorded.

Stabbings 41,884
Rape increased 21%
Sexual assaults increased 18%
Homoside increased 14%
Robbery increased 22%

Police numbers cut by over 20’000 since 2010

not exactly smashing it like the Tories keep telling us.. 

Double digit growth across the board: looks like rapists and robbers solved the productivity puzzle.

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Shatner's Bassoon

 

Some interesting Centrica news. British Gas finally able to compete with the smaller energy firms after years of hemorrhagging customers:

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/latesttip/?weeklytip=17-10-2018&utm_source=MSE_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=16-Oct-18-375-8&utm_campaign=nt-highlights&utm_content=1#hiya

Partly this will be a result of the smaller companies running unsustainable business models and being exposed to volatility in wholesale prices. That said, I work for the company and can say that the focus on costs for the past 3 years has been utterly relentless. Admirable of course (if I hadn't been so personally affected xD).

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11 minutes ago, Shatner's Bassoon said:

 

Some interesting Centrica news. British Gas finally able to compete with the smaller energy firms after years of hemorrhagging customers:

https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/latesttip/?weeklytip=17-10-2018&utm_source=MSE_Newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_term=16-Oct-18-375-8&utm_campaign=nt-highlights&utm_content=1#hiya

Partly this will be a result of the smaller companies running unsustainable business models and being exposed to volatility in wholesale prices. That said, I work for the company and can say that the focus on costs for the past 3 years has been utterly relentless. Admirable of course (if I hadn't been so personally affected xD).

Yes,and Centrica are getting into position for massive markets of the future (distributed energy and car charging).The smaller players will be destroyed in the turn to a new cycle.Centrica just need to unload the nuclear power stations to then have a fantastic balance sheet to enter the reflation.They will be able to invest.My only worry is big oil take them out before the true value can surface.£6 to £8 a share in the next cycle is very possible.

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10 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Isn't it, I've been in this state of continued doom analysis since August 2015, now I wonder where the past 3 years have gone and what I could have done with my time more wisely instead of obsessing over everything economical, but I've learned a lot in this time and do find it (sadly?) incredibly interesting. Because I over-analyse and fill much of every day absorbing hundreds of tweets and articles, FWIW I can reassure that it would take a miracle (I can hear the QE desensitised sighs already xD) to turn this negative momentum around. All eyes on next summer being the crucial turning point in the US for interest rates, unless we get a black swan sooner.

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Me too....but in those three years I have been educating myself financially and developing a game plan....and what's nice to see/reassuring is that I have seen several on here (that have a greater understanding) proposing a similar approach.

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10 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Yeah know about the cabin baggage charges - we are taking our 14-month old daughter with us so just paying the extra £30 for a hold bag as we have to put the buggy in the hold and wait at the carousel anyways.

They have highlighted these new charges as being important to more efficiently load/unloading passengers at the gate - be interesting to see if it works.

Much as I dislike posting OT - I’ve just flown Ryanair, with the supposed new cabin bag policy.  Everybody got to take their bag into the cabin just like the old days.  Certainly, none of the people sitting near me had paid the new charge to guarantee a place in the cabin.

It does amuse me how, years ago, people wanted bugger all hand luggage as it’s a pain in the arse carrying it to the gate. As much as possible went in the hold. Now, taking hand luggage costs extra...

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25 minutes ago, AnythingWithWheels said:

Much as I dislike posting OT - I’ve just flown Ryanair, with the supposed new cabin bag policy.  Everybody got to take their bag into the cabin just like the old days.  Certainly, none of the people sitting near me had paid the new charge to guarantee a place in the cabin.

It does amuse me how, years ago, people wanted bugger all hand luggage as it’s a pain in the arse carrying it to the gate. As much as possible went in the hold. Now, taking hand luggage costs extra...

Ah, but olden days travel was different.

I still travel to olden days airports.  Sumburgh Airport (Shetland) is great (like the 50's) -- they take your luggage through the doors and dump it in the arrivals hall -- just takes a few minutes (as does getting to the arrivals hall -- which is actually just 'the big room part of the shed', and is shared with departures).  Berlin Tegel is also pretty good (like the 60's) -- you have to wait a few minutes, but your luggage is about halfway between the plane and the taxis, so about 50m out of 100m.

Compare that with most airports -- your luggage will go God knows where and be handled by God knows who, and eventually should end up at the other side of the airport (which will feel like a mile or so), but it might not.  

So it is hardly surprising that people prefer to go with the 'big hand luggage' these days.

[I try to travel with a bag that'll fit under the seat in front -- I don't know why so many people travel with such volumes of stuff]

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