Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[azzuri82]

18 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The key buy signal iv always used in the past on the transports was when depreciation started to fall as it tended to lead to increased free cash.Likely that is due to the bus buying cycle.The key to the next cycle is that it will be inflationary and as such prices will go up faster than depreciation hence increased cash flow.Of course when to buy is difficult to decide as we are in a bear market,but il stair case in as i always do.Its also highly likely i will of sold out by 2025/27 as that when rates should catch up with inflation.Interesting sector going forward to see how things play out.

Very difficult to know when to buy and sell. The big companies tend to have plans 2-3 years out, whether they have maxxed out their vehicle purchases for now, who knows?!

[Barnsey]

44 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

Very difficult to know when to buy and sell. The big companies tend to have plans 2-3 years out, whether they have maxxed out their vehicle purchases for now, who knows?!

I have to confess I've resorted to being very crude about it as I don't have life changing amounts to invest, just focusing on P/E ratios, dividends, long term trend lines etc. On that basis, Stagecoach looking very appealing to me right now, Go Ahead less so but standing ready to jump in around 1350. 

Both saw their shares fall 2/3 in the last crash and are already on their way back to those levels even before we hit another, so not sure how low they'll go?

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I have to confess I've resorted to being very crude about it as I don't have life changing amounts to invest, just focusing on P/E ratios, dividends, long term trend lines etc. On that basis, Stagecoach looking very appealing to me right now, Go Ahead less so but standing ready to jump in around 1350. 

Both saw their shares fall 2/3 in the last crash and are already on their way back to those levels even before we hit another, so not sure how low they'll go?

Funny enough Barnsey iv bought Go Ahead several times over the last year or so around £13.50 and sold around £18.Iv got some now that il likely hold.The Stagecoach i have (not many) are down about 7% after dividends.Iv top sliced quite a few holdings this year as they jumped up.To be honest my main focus has been on the PM miners this last year and the rest of my portfolio is a side show or in cash.

[azzuri82]

4 hours ago, Gordie Lastchance said:

I agree, though, I see the attraction of sitting solo in a car rather than sharing all the germs and other issues of a packed bus.

 

This is why it'll happen. 

[DoINeedOne]

That's the thing uber as much as I want to hate it is actually great cars a few minutes away see where they are on the app the price no exchange of money, but whilst I'm a sociable person and can happily talk shit with someone for hours i think driverless cars would be amazing 

No small talk and peaceful just get it takes me to where I want to go

whilst again I want to hate it I actually think I would use it more 

[Sasquatch]

28 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

 

This is why it'll happen. 

I think we are a long long way off true autonomous driving. I have a Volvo V90 which has a sort of half way house system. I can let the car drive itself although am prompted to put my hands on the steering wheel every 10 seconds or so. On the motorway it is just about ok but on A or B roads it's hugely disconcerting. The car doesn't anticipate subtle curves in the road like a human does and tends to jerk the car from side to side. I played around with the system as a novelty when I first bought the car but never use it now. There would need to be massive technological and AI advancements to allow me to place full trust in an autopilot car. I think it will be decades (or maybe never) before we can all sit back and enjoy the ride. My view of the future is more Bladerunner than Disney!

The only feature that I think is truly useful is the autobrake function. It's kicked in a couple of times when I've been a bit lazy coming up to cars at roundabouts. I would still have reacted in time but it did remind me that the computer can think quicker than the human brain in these specific circumstances. Whether a computer can predict and prepare for a bad pothole, patch of mud from a farm vehicle, ice on a shade part of road, is another matter altogether.....

 

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Funny enough Barnsey iv bought Go Ahead several times over the last year or so around £13.50 and sold around £18.Iv got some now that il likely hold.The Stagecoach i have (not many) are down about 7% after dividends.Iv top sliced quite a few holdings this year as they jumped up.To be honest my main focus has been on the PM miners this last year and the rest of my portfolio is a side show or in cash.

Think I'll get some GDXJ and GDX soon, about as far as I'm willing to dabble in the miners but seems like a good idea for a modest % of holdings, along with some silver in bullionvault, averaging in when I can but keen to see it drop a little further before I'm convinced of sticking a whack in. Weaker GBP could jeopardise that plan perhaps if DXY keeps holding up through the next few months.

I'm thinking the discount food and clothing retailers are really going to push through hard after the next recession, do you still have a favourable view of Next? I'm tempted to pick up some ABF in the rubble, providing their Primark expansion in the U.S. makes it through the turbulence, classier clothing retailers holding up ok over there at the moment thanks to the fake wealth effect but Primark are in a unique position over there when times get harder, with the supermarkets their only close competition.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Sasquatch said:

I think we are a long long way off true autonomous driving. I have a Volvo V90 which has a sort of half way house system. I can let the car drive itself although am prompted to put my hands on the steering wheel every 10 seconds or so. On the motorway it is just about ok but on A or B roads it's hugely disconcerting. The car doesn't anticipate subtle curves in the road like a human does and tends to jerk the car from side to side. I played around with the system as a novelty when I first bought the car but never use it now. There would need to be massive technological and AI advancements to allow me to place full trust in an autopilot car. I think it will be decades (or maybe never) before we can all sit back and enjoy the ride. My view of the future is more Bladerunner than Disney!

The only feature that I think is truly useful is the autobrake function. It's kicked in a couple of times when I've been a bit lazy coming up to cars at roundabouts. I would still have reacted in time but it did remind me that the computer can think quicker than the human brain in these specific circumstances. Whether a computer can predict and prepare for a bad pothole, patch of mud from a farm vehicle, ice on a shade part of road, is another matter altogether.....

 

Personally I think autonomous driving is a complete waste of time and money. It will be out of date before it's rolled out in any numbers. One way or another we have to get off expensive to maintain and congested roads. Instead of adapting cars we should be adapting drones. We should be flying about in something with a guidance and anti-collision system. No electric charging on route, if travelling long distance, you just stop off and quickly swap a small battery pack available at all sky stations.

[MrXxx]

8 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Maybe subsidise the buses as well.

 

HTB...help to bus? :-)...sorry, couldn't resist that one!...but seriously though, perhaps the will zone charge the autonomous vehicles the way they currently do with London and use these to subsidize the buses/trains?

The benefit with autonomous vehicles though is that they will be able to `fit in` more vehicles (and so more fees) for the same level of congestion.

[azzuri82]

2 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I think we are a long long way off true autonomous driving. I have a Volvo V90 which has a sort of half way house system. I can let the car drive itself although am prompted to put my hands on the steering wheel every 10 seconds or so. On the motorway it is just about ok but on A or B roads it's hugely disconcerting. The car doesn't anticipate subtle curves in the road like a human does and tends to jerk the car from side to side. I played around with the system as a novelty when I first bought the car but never use it now. There would need to be massive technological and AI advancements to allow me to place full trust in an autopilot car. I think it will be decades (or maybe never) before we can all sit back and enjoy the ride. My view of the future is more Bladerunner than Disney!

The only feature that I think is truly useful is the autobrake function. It's kicked in a couple of times when I've been a bit lazy coming up to cars at roundabouts. I would still have reacted in time but it did remind me that the computer can think quicker than the human brain in these specific circumstances. Whether a computer can predict and prepare for a bad pothole, patch of mud from a farm vehicle, ice on a shade part of road, is another matter altogether.....

 

It's the 'halfway house' systems that scare me. I have similar functions in my own car, but it's been shown that with the 50/50 autonomous systems that the drivers themselves feel a false sense of security, it causes concentration loss and thus can cause (normally pretty serious) accidents at high speed.

I'd rather the autonomous system either did everything, or nothing. I'm not sure our brains are adapted well to this sort of halfway house system - you either need to be in control or not.

[Majorpain]

3 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

It's the 'halfway house' systems that scare me. I have similar functions in my own car, but it's been shown that with the 50/50 autonomous systems that the drivers themselves feel a false sense of security, it causes concentration loss and thus can cause (normally pretty serious) accidents at high speed.

I'd rather the autonomous system either did everything, or nothing. I'm not sure our brains are adapted well to this sort of halfway house system - you either need to be in control or not.

Completely agree, there is nothing worse than wondering if the machine is going to do something or you are going to have to do it.  Especially when your travelleling at 70mph in 2 tons of missile with very little margin of error.

I program/run a machine with one of the most reliable hardware availiable in the world at the moment (FANUC), with a hardware failiure rate of around 1 every 65 run years.  About once a year it gets the program seriously wrong and damages the bed, but gets it right the second time.  Thats not good when you dont get a second time!

[dgul]

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Personally I think autonomous driving is a complete waste of time and money. It will be out of date before it's rolled out in any numbers. One way or another we have to get off expensive to maintain and congested roads. Instead of adapting cars we should be adapting drones. We should be flying about in something with a guidance and anti-collision system. No electric charging on route, if travelling long distance, you just stop off and quickly swap a small battery pack available at all sky stations.

Instead of finding ways to make driving around ever more effortless and convenient, we should be finding ways to remove the need for moving around so much.

[Chewing Grass]

16 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Completely agree, there is nothing worse than wondering if the machine is going to do something or you are going to have to do it.  Especially when your travelleling at 70mph in 2 tons of missile with very little margin of error.

I program/run a machine with one of the most reliable hardware availiable in the world at the moment (FANUC), with a hardware failiure rate of around 1 every 65 run years.  About once a year it gets the program seriously wrong and damages the bed, but gets it right the second time.  Thats not good when you dont get a second time!

FANUC Robomill by anychance, my lad uses them to machine ridiculously precision stuff for top secret Japanese Co that no outsource anything because of Chinese stealy IP cunt.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Interesting article, and what have I learnt?...to go and buy all the unloved stock, come onto as many forums like this as possible and talk them up, thus hopefully convincing you all to buy in....

Have you all heard, Foxtons shares are going to be the next ten bagger...don't miss out, buy now! :-)

This isn't a pump n dump thread,virtually everyone here posts with about as much integrity and sincerity as you can get over the web and DYOR is alaways mentioned,which means well.....DYOR...don't rely on anyone but yourself.

Indeed one of the overrriding messages from all these pages is encouraging people to educate themselves.Pump n dump it ain't.

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Latest LSL Acadata report out:

http://acadametricstest.com/services/house-price-index/

0.9% annual growth for England & Wales, predicted to be negative by year end. Monmouthshire and Newport saw highest gains, due to priced out Bristolians no doubt anticipating removal of Severn Bridge toll.

Says we've definitely peaked to me.

Interesting to see 21 London Boroughs are negative yoy out of 33 ....the average bouyed by Kensington being +20%

Also South East is first region yoy negative...............by 0.1%

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If we take a HTB new build house i dont think il see the prices today again in my lifetime inflation adjusted,or perhaps even nominal.

http://www.cityam.com/266171/auto-dealer-pendragons-shares-tumble-fresh-profit-warning

More profit warnings.New car sales causing plenty of pain now as well.

@sancho panza Ashtead and International Hotels getting whacked again.

 

 

As per my recent discussion with barnsey,there's a few sectors rolling over that are giving us a fascianting insight into a possible market turning point.

One of the central strengths of Dow theory is that it's broader logic makes an awful lot of sense ie looking for confirmations of trend(there are those who solely focus on a stricter interpretatio).Any way,builders turned a while back,some last year.This is now being confirmed by suppoort service companies like Ashtead/Ferguson/Kingfisher/Travis perkins.

Obviously you have to be careful which companies you use for what.

The hotels are indicative of a wider downturn but lets remember their revenues have hardly been rising over the last four years.These are all stocks that have featured in the Big Short thread.

The reality of rme with my short work is that these have run away on me.I like shares that take a slow ride through long term timingpoints each confirming the downtrend is viable  and then use other indicators to time entry.IHG,Ferguson,Ashstead have all done 20% in a month.Impressive.These are ramping away at the mo but to be fairfair value is a fair way away imho.

Decl:short some builders/Whitbread

[sancho panza]

12 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

If you're running an efficient operation (...as Stagecoach and the likes definitely are - the vehicles don't sit idle), it's the labour. If you're talking long haul express journeys, it's a close call if you include maintenance, fuel and vehicles etc., but one of these VDL or Van Hool premium coaches Stagecoach runs that cost £300-350k new and depreciated over 6-7 years before being sold on will cost them less than £100/day over the period of ownership. They'd expect these vehicles to be on the road 28/29 days a month. I'm still willing to bet that the direct driver labour costs 20% more than the vehicles, fuel and maintenance combined.

If you mean the local routes on buses rather than coaches, the labour will be a much bigger part of their costs. A Dennis vehicle might last for 15-20 years if maintained properly - and although maintenance costs can be quite high, again this is mostly labour, and Stagecoach depots will have their own full-time maintenance guys, so it likely cuts the cost of maintenance in half.

Smaller, local operators (that make little to no operating profit), perhaps the vehicles are a larger part of their costs, but this tends to be family firms outwith the South-East of England, and they only make money when they actually sell a vehicle on at 5/6 years' old that they've owned from new.

Getting hold of reliable, experienced drivers in the industry is very difficult. I was speaking to an small'ish operator from the South East of England a few months ago who told me that in order to keep hold of their experienced drivers over the summer months to take advantage of the tourist trade, they were having to pay them £300-350/day.

FAscinating insight into the industry Azzuri.

Every days a learning day

[sancho panza]

 

 

 

I think this is what the top of the business cycle looks like

 

 

 

Decl:short EZY

[Rave]

13 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

I was speaking to an small'ish operator from the South East of England a few months ago who told me that in order to keep hold of their experienced drivers over the summer months to take advantage of the tourist trade, they were having to pay them £300-350/day.

I'm usually at a loose end from early May to mid-August during the football off-season and could do with earning 300 quid a day, fancy hooking me up with them next year?

[MrXxx]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This isn't a pump n dump thread,virtually everyone here posts with about as much integrity and sincerity as you can get over the web and DYOR is alaways mentioned,which means well.....DYOR...don't rely on anyone but yourself.

Indeed one of the overrriding messages from all these pages is encouraging people to educate themselves.Pump n dump it ain't.

Hi SP, no I wasn't insinuating that this was a P&D thread; as you point out everyone prefaces their posts with DYOR, just highlighting that people can have vested interests when posting....I wasn't seriously suggesting Foxtons as a buy option, unless God forbid we are all in for another housing boom rather than the drop we have all been waiting for.

[Castlevania]

8 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Interesting to see 21 London Boroughs are negative yoy out of 33 ....the average bouyed by Kensington being +20%

Also South East is first region yoy negative...............by 0.1%

Kensington isn’t up 20%. Prices are still falling. The average price has been skewed by more mansions being sold than last year. They’re selling at big discounts to asking price, but selling. 

[Noallegiance]

10 hours ago, dgul said:

Instead of finding ways to make driving around ever more effortless and convenient, we should be finding ways to remove the need for moving around so much.

"Any intelligent fool can make things bigger, more complex, and more violent. It takes a touch of genius—and a lot of courage to move in the opposite direction."

From E.F. Schumacher's 1973 book Small is Beautiful: A Study of Economics As If People Mattered.

[azzuri82]

8 hours ago, Rave said:

I'm usually at a loose end from early May to mid-August during the football off-season and could do with earning 300 quid a day, fancy hooking me up with them next year?

Do you have a full bus/coach licence?

[Majorpain]

12 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

FANUC Robomill by anychance, my lad uses them to machine ridiculously precision stuff for top secret Japanese Co that no outsource anything because of Chinese stealy IP cunt.

No, a much less advanced Router with fanuc controller but the principles are the same.

[ashestoashes]

is this thread in danger of going off road