Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

53 minutes ago, ashestoashes said:

is this thread in danger of going off road

I told you all we should have paid DB to stay home.! Not to knock the other great posters like SP and co.  Time for us to step up. 

I would really like to have more ideas how to protect my family financially through the times ahead.  That's what I'd be focussing on.

One contribution is I've been looking at investment trusts this week and learnt a lot. Still learning but some initital opinions:

- those capital preservation type funds don't seem to have performed that well in the past.

- there are a lot of dogs out there with a bland web page and little else.  Several have effectively closed down.

- some are no more than overpriced trackers, worse with gearing so presumably will do worse in a decline.

- like the idea they have reserves to use for divs in bad times but little data on how robust that is.

- some have a slightly better returns than ETFs but not much and have risks, just different ones.

- there are 514 or so in the UK per the aic website.  A few basic screens whittle that to about 40 in no time.

- I still prefer individual stocks unless the trusts really are buying niche players and achieving "alpha".

- Made me question a HYP portfolio versus a total return one.  Think I'll go for both.

Question - are their yields quoted after fees?  Same for ETFs so we can compare?  I assume so - yield should be based on divs actually paid.

Any other thoughts?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Investment trusts will take their fees out of the income generated by the fund. If anything is left over they may then pay a dividend.

Investment trusts aren’t that different to a fund. What it does give you is liquidity - the shares are traded on the stock market, and as such they’ll often trade at a different price to net asset value. You can always sell, but it could be at a discount to the value of the underlying assets.

As with funds it’s best to view them as a way to get exposure to a particular market. For example I own VEIL and GCL. VEIL gives me exposure to Vietnam (good demographics) and GCL to nuclear/uranium. Two areas where I wouldn’t know where to start if I were to buy individual stocks.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

....As with funds it’s best to view them as a way to get exposure to a particular market. For example I own VEIL and GCL. VEIL gives me exposure to Vietnam (good demographics) and GCL to nuclear/uranium. Two areas where I wouldn’t know where to start if I were to buy individual stocks.

 

Agree with that one.  I found you just have to be careful as I found at least one with a good sounding name ("special situations" or something) which was no more than a tracker fund like a basic ETF (ok maybe with a very small allocation to something special).  And I found several that played to a popular theme but which are now closed.  One feeling I came away with was to avoid anything specialist sounding and go for the more mainstream sounding ones which were also investing in niches.  After all that's the whole point of trusts - to go places we can't.  Anything else might as well be a (cheaper?) fund tracker, ETF, or the shares.

PS: The other difference with funds is the ability to borrow (gear up) which of course can work both ways.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's an example of a fairly nice bit of "alpha" in that the share price has risen higher.  The blue is a trust and the red is an income ETF.  Both pay the samish dividend.

Capture10.thumb.PNG.f0f9c8fa5637422aec6d9fb9083e360c.PNG

I could post charts showing even bigger diffferences but then I could also post charts where the trust has just tracked the ETF.

DYOR!

PS: Probably deserves to go in the "Investing & Money" section, other than in relation to coping with a deflationary/inflationary cycle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Harley said:

I told you all we should have paid DB to stay home.! Not to knock the other great posters like SP and co.  Time for us to step up. 

I would really like to have more ideas how to protect my family financially through the times ahead.  That's what I'd be focussing on.

One contribution is I've been looking at investment trusts this week and learnt a lot. Still learning but some initital opinions:

- those capital preservation type funds don't seem to have performed that well in the past.

- there are a lot of dogs out there with a bland web page and little else.  Several have effectively closed down.

- some are no more than overpriced trackers, worse with gearing so presumably will do worse in a decline.

- like the idea they have reserves to use for divs in bad times but little data on how robust that is.

- some have a slightly better returns than ETFs but not much and have risks, just different ones.

- there are 514 or so in the UK per the aic website.  A few basic screens whittle that to about 40 in no time.

- I still prefer individual stocks unless the trusts really are buying niche players and achieving "alpha".

- Made me question a HYP portfolio versus a total return one.  Think I'll go for both.

Question - are their yields quoted after fees?  Same for ETFs so we can compare?  I assume so - yield should be based on divs actually paid.

Any other thoughts?

I can't really make much of a valuable contribution other than keeping a large % of cash aside to jump in at stressed levels, all parked in NS&I premium bonds which have an "equivalent" interest rate of 1.40% currently. Low fee trackers (FTSE 100, MSCI emerging markets) will be a part of my plan after the crash, 0.06% fee.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Harley said:

- those capital preservation type funds don't seem to have performed that well in the past.

these guaranteed +ve return funds often work by retaining the dividends. If the fund price goes up, even a bit, then the fund has delivered on its promise. If the fund falls, then they have a stash of cash to use to prop up the fund. The thing is, the dividend is often the major source of growth, not share price.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

surely we dont care where the money comes from as long as it comes in, obviously return of (not on) is a problem when the funds start to fail, never the less, im in a few funds and fundsmith T class is now double what i actually paid for it, so it can afford to lose 50% before im worried.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

YyInteresting action on Intu Plc. I am taken aback how rapidly this company has lost value. The new offer price is I think around 215p. The share price moved to only 200p I think as at Friday. I’m not seeing the strategy. Long term I expect will be heavily negotiating with Mike Ashley? BBC has a list of the centres (unsure if it’s complete). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, MrXxx said:

Hi SP, no I wasn't insinuating that this was a P&D thread; as you point out everyone prefaces their posts with DYOR, just highlighting that people can have vested interests when posting....I wasn't seriously suggesting Foxtons as a buy option, unless God forbid we are all in for another housing boom rather than the drop we have all been waiting for.

I actively follow this thread everyday, just like I did on HPC for the last year or so. That's not because we have 'vested interests' but a collection of thoughts of a similar outlook in the financial and political basket case of the world we find ourselves. I find it fascinating  to hear opinions from people working in different fields and the expertise they bring. I may be able to throw my hat in the ring with cellular infrastructure (with the likes of Vodafone etc) as I am currently working within cellular networks and working with the top defence/prosecution cellular experts in the country. A collection of knowledge is an invaluable resource.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, harp said:

Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.

dont forget though, DB is expecting a large tank of the lot, way down. Im just watching for the day on day downers then pull the plug and line up for a rinse and repeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 19/10/2018 at 13:32, Barnsey said:

I have to confess I've resorted to being very crude about it as I don't have life changing amounts to invest, just focusing on P/E ratios, dividends, long term trend lines etc. On that basis, Stagecoach looking very appealing to me right now, Go Ahead less so but standing ready to jump in around 1350. 

Both saw their shares fall 2/3 in the last crash and are already on their way back to those levels even before we hit another, so not sure how low they'll go?

I think the key thing with investing isn't the amount you're investing-it's all relative.What's important is that you're investing sums that are important to you.That's the key thing for most people on this thread.There's most likely a fair selection of society frequenting this thread and what makes it buzz is the liveliness of the minds contributing,not the size of hand they represent.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Kensington isn’t up 20%. Prices are still falling. The average price has been skewed by more mansions being sold than last year. They’re selling at big discounts to asking price, but selling. 

Your allusion made me do some calcs on the LSL data while I'm watching The Good Wife with Mrs P-an excellent show if I may say.

LSL use an arithmetic mean for their data.London being up 3.9% is heavily skewed by the data in the top 4 Boroughs where prices are over £1 million and where prices are up in 2 boroughs by 11% and 20%.I haven't got Excel on this PC but it seems safe to say that taking those out,Londinium is negative YoY

  AVERAGE HOUSE PRICES BY LONDON BOROUGH        
  (Mix adjusted)          
               
PRIOR YR RANK RANK BY PRICE LONDON BOROUGH Aug-17 Jul-18 Aug-18 Month % Change Annual % Change
1 1 KENSINGTON AND CHELSEA                 1,658,887 1,895,067 1,849,644 -2.4% 11.5%
2 2 CITY OF WESTMINSTER                    1,555,980 1,343,585 1,409,010 4.9% -9.4%
4 3 CITY OF LONDON                         977,289 1,226,855 1,181,070 -3.7% 20.9%
3 4 CAMDEN                                 997,060 1,013,320 1,008,327 -0.5% 1.1%
5 5 HAMMERSMITH AND FULHAM                 947,040 921,849 879,827 -4.6% -7.1%
6 6 RICHMOND UPON THAMES                   786,368 762,856 769,026 0.8% -2.2%
8 7 ISLINGTON                              744,120 730,259 730,876 0.1% -1.8%
7 8 WANDSWORTH                             761,740 719,790 694,571 -3.5% -8.8%
11 9 MERTON                                 612,828 658,277 648,554 -1.5% 5.8%
13 10 LAMBETH                                599,164 654,203 616,136 -5.8% 2.8%
10 11 HARINGEY                               642,863 624,241 615,504 -1.4% -4.3%
9 12 BARNET                                 645,563 594,338 594,595 0.0% -7.9%
15 13 HACKNEY                                578,499 586,887 592,492 1.0% 2.4%
18 14 BRENT                                  548,624 578,651 586,618 1.4% 6.9%
12 15 SOUTHWARK                              601,021 602,862 584,914 -3.0% -2.7%
17 16 KINGSTON UPON THAMES                   559,475 557,114 558,237 0.2% -0.2%
16 17 EALING                                 578,235 546,636 539,958 -1.2% -6.6%
14 18 TOWER HAMLETS                          581,120 551,465 524,489 -4.9% -9.7%
19 19 HARROW                                 531,321 495,970 499,701 0.8% -6.0%
21 20 HOUNSLOW                               481,438 510,941 498,498 -2.4% 3.5%
20 21 BROMLEY                                501,885 492,368 488,054 -0.9% -2.8%
25 22 REDBRIDGE                              456,325 473,178 471,773 -0.3% 3.4%
27 23 WALTHAM FOREST                         450,254 457,690 460,098 0.5% 2.2%
23 24 ENFIELD                                458,781 445,012 448,069 0.7% -2.3%
26 25 HILLINGDON                             454,451 436,718 444,103 1.7% -2.3%
22 26 LEWISHAM                               470,457 445,881 439,594 -1.4% -6.6%
24 27 GREENWICH                              458,148 434,956 419,416 -3.6% -8.5%
30 28 SUTTON                                 401,715 408,766 407,752 -0.2% 1.5%
31 29 HAVERING                               394,577 393,625 390,415 -0.8% -1.1%
28 30 CROYDON                                413,392 392,794 388,947 -1.0% -5.9%
29 31 NEWHAM                                 409,520 393,841 378,493 -3.9% -7.6%
32 32 BEXLEY                                 365,512 360,517 362,706 0.6% -0.8%
33 33 BARKING AND DAGENHAM                   301,790 307,078 304,706 -0.8% 1.0%
    ALL LONDON 600,361 621,224 623,677 0.4% 3.9%
               
               
        Peak     0
        Max   4.9% 20.9%
        Min   -5.8% -9.7%
               
               
        -ve   21 21
               
               
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, harp said:

Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.

I'm still getting hosed on our goldies. One reason I never spreadsheet portfolios as losses can put you off your stride.I know we're down,not sure by how much.Having said that,we're not selling.There's still lots of value there imho,loads are under long term trend lines.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

YyInteresting action on Intu Plc. I am taken aback how rapidly this company has lost value. The new offer price is I think around 215p. The share price moved to only 200p I think as at Friday. I’m not seeing the strategy. Long term I expect will be heavily negotiating with Mike Ashley? BBC has a list of the centres (unsure if it’s complete). 

I can't see how many of the big mall owners will be making any profits in five let alone ten years with their current debt structure.Look at the failings of Sears in the US to see where Dept stores are going and with them the Landlords piggy backing the credit bubble.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, azzuri82 said:

Do you have a full bus/coach licence?

I have, I was a London bus driver. CPC card valid till September next year. I've never driven a manual coach but I passed my lorry test in a manual, which would have upgraded my Cat D had I not already posted it off to have it upgraded when they changed the rules in 2014 or whenever it was.

I'm not actually expecting you to potentially risk your standing with this company by hooking them up with some random off the internet, but if there are driving jobs out there that pay that much I'll definitely be a bit more proactive about seeking them out, I think...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 hours ago, harp said:

Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.

The SA miners were the first to turn in the 2016 rally as well,about two months before everything else.They are much more leveraged to the gold price than most (high costs) and tend to inflict great pain on the downside,but contain a lot of energy when they change course.Im very pleased with Harmony as it was my no1 stock on the rubber band list and my biggest PM holding.I actually sold 30% of my holding though at 2.10 and put half of that into Yamana at 3.40,a bit more into Endeavor Silver and kept some powder.Only reason being i had a very large stake in it and by taking a good profit out it gives me more confidence to hold the rest.Sibanye has been very kind to me over the years,and i only have a smaller holding this time,but im tempted to sell that,simply as the SA balance has increased too much in my portfolio due to the huge jump up in prices and its not balanced enough due to that.

Eldorado have a lot of clouds hanging over them.They need to refinance debt at some point and have problems on several fronts.(not alone there in the space).Those types tend to need the sector to continue to rally and then they play catch up,usually on a bit of good news.A permit they have been waiting for etc.

I think the top is in,or very close in the US equity markets.If they buy the dip again i think it will be the last one.The energy is running out.Its crucial though the first 20% of the bear is drip drip down to support a PM rally.We dont want to see huge drops.The UK markets looks like some sectors are mostly through their bear,others just entering.We could be in for a falling market,but one that goes sector by sector.Given the market always hurts the most people it can,US passive funds will likely be the biggest losers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I can't see how many of the big mall owners will be making any profits in five let alone ten years with their current debt structure.Look at the failings of Sears in the US to see where Dept stores are going and with them the Landlords piggy backing the credit bubble.

Thats the problem with Intu,too much debt and the huge malls arent flexible.The best assets in this sector are the good quality community malls.They are big enough to get all the discounters in,perhaps a Primark,Lidl,B+M,Wilkos etc,but in the right locations so you can add things like a gym,doctors surgery,flats,a 6 screen cinema,and/or a Travelodge maybe.You want to be able to  make a good return at £12sqf rents,but most of these malls were bought expecting £20+sqf rents (Intus will be about £25sqf) and leveraged for that.Like you say department stores are finished,so the big malls who have several taking huge space will be unable to fill that.

Intu needed to be leveraged about 30% at this stage in the cycle yet are at about 50%.The community malls need to be around 35%,some are,some are also at 50%.A lot also depends on the debt structure like you say.You really want over half the debt on long term corporate bonds and an unencumbered balance sheet so you can be flexible.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think the top is in,or very close in the US equity markets.If they buy the dip again i think it will be the last one.The energy is running out.Its crucial though the first 20% of the bear is drip drip down to support a PM rally.We dont want to see huge drops.The UK markets looks like some sectors are mostly through their bear,others just entering.We could be in for a falling market,but one that goes sector by sector.Given the market always hurts the most people it can,US passive funds will likely be the biggest losers.

THE big unknown right now, SPX broke and held below it's 200DMA support on Friday for the first time, interesting week ahead!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Barnsey said:

THE big unknown right now, SPX broke and held below it's 200DMA support on Friday for the first time, interesting week ahead!

I picked a terrible time to go back to work Barnsey didnt i considering i dont have a smart phone.I have one in the cupboard my other half gave me when she bought a new one (gumtree of course),i might have figure out how to use the darn thing.Everyone on their breaks looking at porn,football results and cats kissing dogs on youtube while im looking at COTs reports and candlesticks on GDXJ O.o

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Given the market always hurts the most people it can,US passive funds will likely be the biggest losers.

An old article on tracker funds but may still be valid:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/hidden-dangers-within-popular-tracker-funds/

Morningstar usually provides holdings data and iShares for one (etf provider) details them all on its website.

But these may have a role overall in some portfolios.  Just nice to know the risks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Harley said:

Here's an example of a fairly nice bit of "alpha" in that the share price has risen higher.  The blue is a trust and the red is an income ETF.  Both pay the samish dividend.

Capture10.thumb.PNG.f0f9c8fa5637422aec6d9fb9083e360c.PNG

I could post charts showing even bigger diffferences but then I could also post charts where the trust has just tracked the ETF.

DYOR!

PS: Probably deserves to go in the "Investing & Money" section, other than in relation to coping with a deflationary/inflationary cycle.

I assume that these are both gross, be interesting to see if the trust is still positive in regard to the ETF once charges have been accounted for.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Harley said:

An old article on tracker funds but may still be valid:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/hidden-dangers-within-popular-tracker-funds/

Morningstar usually provides holdings data and iShares for one (etf provider) details them all on its website.

But these may have a role overall in some portfolios.  Just nice to know the risks.

Exactly Harley,and timing of course.Iv bought many passive funds myself (before the EU stopped us) for country funds like Turkey,Vietnam,Colombia etc.The problem i see is once some of these massive market cap companies start to go down there will be no bids.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I assume that these are both gross, be interesting to see if the trust is still positive in regard to the ETF once charges have been accounted for.

Share prices so fees not relevant?  I asked about divs and it was confirmed here they are net of fees.

On the other hand, I wish I had the price chart showing an etf div tracker based on nothing other than the top estimated annual divs compared to a div "aristocrat" fund that had all these extra selection criteria (e.g. past div growth).  Identical price charts!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, harp said:

Ah bollocks, the word is out. Can't believe my Harmony (HMY) and Sibanye (SBGL) are up 29% and 30%! Down in a couple of others Yamana 15% and Eldorado 17% but slowly catching up. 

https://www.dollarcollapse.com/gold-cool-again/

Who was it on here that tipped Wesdome in June time? Took a little punt and it's nearly doubled up to now. Wish I stuck some more in at the time. Hat tip to whoever it was.

Think I mentioned it after following @economicalpha on Twitter. Very much his tip not mine but pleased I followed it too. My plan was to reassess towards $5 and maybe take some off but at their recent Denver Gold presentation they hinted that there might be even more undiscovered gold at Kiena Deep despite that which they have already found still not being fully priced in yet. 

https://wsw.com/webcast/dgf18/wdo.to/?lobby=true&day=1

There’s a lot of really useful info out there on the miners and I think just like anything, it’s about finding the right people to help inform you and those you should ignore. I’m still learning so I’d rather you know the source than think I’m worth paying much attention too. This thread, for example, is obviously brilliant in that the variety of its contributions gives analysis and maybe a direction but not necessarily a consensus. The likes of www.ceo.ca, not so much. It’s fanatical stuff with too much noise. Often reminds me of the bitcoin thread on ToS. Lack of measured analysis, way too many ‘to the moon’ type statements. This really leaves them open to pump and dumps where any vaguely decent drill results can be spun into FOMO. I suppose they’re the the dumb money and we need to not be the dumb money.

All fun

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...