Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

8 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Have you dug through the actively managed portfolios to see what they're made up of? There are some real gems in them that are heavily weighted in particular companies leaving them mightly exposed.

Spot on.  Found the same doing my IT research.  Clicked on the holdings list for one very well known IT (even recommended I think by a respected publication) and saw Google, Amazon, Alibaba, Netflix, etc.  Felt ill, switched off, and ran a mile!  No need to pay a manager for that.  I'm paying for the clever gems they are meant to find.  An expenseive tracker by any other name.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

So if we are entering a significant bear market, would we expect to see a reduction in bond yields for safe havens like US treasury bonds?

Would there be an opportunity to buy longer dated bonds now and sell them during the depths of a downturn, or would this be priced in already?

I know that yield curve inversion usually indicates a recession but it still looks normal to me

It would be nice if we could all come clean and specify what we think to hold for which period (pre crash, crash, deflation, reflation, etc).  I read another very good finance only forum (respect to Spunko I defer mentioning it) where they openly talk about stocks, ITs, etc and their share portfolios.  That causes a lot of discussion so no-one would take anything as advice - indeed it just shows there is no one right answer.  We could always be a little less specific (e.g. sector, asset class, etc).  Or maybe I'm just being lazy, in which case I will lose money by not DMOFR!   If not, as a minumum, it would be nice to summarise the tenets of this thread in a timeline (maybe with flexible dates) which shows each phase, it's features (e.g. direction of bond yields), and what asset class or sub class (e.g. equity sector) would do well versus badly.  That would give us a standarda against which to frame discussions more clearly.  Treat it as a kind of work in progress this thread and its adherents are constructing.  Maybe even version it with a committee to approve changes (whoops, getting too OCD IT at this point but you get the gist!).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Just some notes i've saved also knew someone who was in Cyprus 

Digital wealth is easier to seize

IRELAND 2009: Took Eur4.4bn National Pension Reserve Fund assets to bail out banks.  The Fund was established in 2001 to ensure the Government could pay pensions in 2025-2050

 

PORTUGAL 2010:  Nationalised pension assets of Portugal Telecom

 

IRELAND 2010: Took remaining Euro 2.5bn National Pension Reserve Fund assets

 

FRANCE 2010: Took Euro33bn from its National Reserve Pension Fund that was intended to fund pensions in 2020-2040 but used the money to fund today’s pensions instead

 

HUNGARY 2010: Nationalised $14bn of individual private pension accounts which had been set up in 1998 to limit state pension liabilities and used the money to reduce state debt

 

PORTUGAL 2011: Confiscated pension assets of its largest banks which comprised around three-quarters of private pension assets

 

POLAND 2011:  In 2011, Poland reduced the mandatory contributions into its second pillar privately-managed pension funds from 7% of salary to 2.3%, with the balance being paid into the state pension system

 

UK 2012: Transferred £24bn of Royal Mail pension assets to the Treasury and used the funds to reduce the current budget deficit

 

POLAND 2013: Nationalised half private pension assets by confiscating bond holdings

 

Also reminds me of this

Cyprus end up taking / frooze 47.5% of people's money as a bail in to start with the above screenshot was posted by a business based in Cyprus at the time, remember him posting that he will be sacking something like 10+ people and moving his business out of Cyprus

 

wbpomEF.png.11e08ec6fad5a39a5692f43d51fb49dc.png

 

Also had a friend who's aunt had just sold her house where she lived in Cyprus and had the money blocked last I heard she was living with her sister (my friends mum) as she lost money

 

 

Absolutely incredible when you look at that list.............they said at the time that the Cypriot bail out would be the blueprint for all the Eurozones future efforts.Although the Italian banks have had rounds of support without any investor haircuts for some reason.

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Debt.The market thinks rates are going up a lot and BT and Vod have a big debt pile.What the market is missing is that the prices they charge will front run any rate increases pushing up free cash flow.Vod has also finished its network mostly.Others will need to fund their upgrades in a rising rates era.As ever the key is to staircase into stocks on the way down.Nobody knows how far things will fall,or if they will even stop falling.My Vod are down and my Centrica are slightly down.No concern at all,Harmony is up 2.5 x for me what they are down and as i slowly sell them into their increase il buy the reflation shares i want.Very happy with how things are going compared to the roadmap i had.My perfect ending in my roadmap points to another 15%/20% down in the shares i want (they are already at decade lows mostly) and GDX to hit $37 before it joins the sell off.Glad i went back to work for a while to access extra capitalxD

 

Couldn't agree more DB.

Vod has EUR40bn in total debt-EUR32 bn long term.Versus revenue of EUR47, operating profit of EUR 4bn for 2018.

Given it's utility function,I'm not sure those debt levels are that bad tbh.They whacked my bill up by RPI after one year.They're still investing massively in their networks.Granted,much like CNA,you'd rather their debt was lower but I'm stuggling to see a situation they can't service their debt,unlike many other FTSE 100 companies who probably won't even be able to sustain their pension fund over the longer term.

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

No they arent safe.Thats why the likes of some SA miners with 80 million oz in the ground trade below $1billion.However if we are entering a strong gold bull (even a short lived one) investors piling in wont consider the politics.Sentiment is all that matters then.The risk means a spread is needed,but hopefully we would be long gone before the desperation stage is reached.

You reference short term gold bull market a few times.As someone who's buying for the long long term,what are you foreseeing,a run up,then pull back to say $1200,few fallow years and then a big run up.

 

I'm struggling to foresee a situation in which the CB's actually keep control over the longer term.

9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The irony is Barnsey it was as obvious as night follows day once liquidity turns down assets follow down the road.My friend told me the reason very few see the macro picture correct now is because very few people are long term macro strategists.The big banks/investment houses etc dont use real macro strategists anymore.My friend said his reports would sit on desks,where in the past they were the first thing the traders read to decide asset allocation in the longer term.People want things now these days.They simply dont understand road maps etc.How we get somewhere doesnt matter,its the destination that counts.

If people here remember one things i hope its this.Markets always hurt the most people possible.That is a macro truth.Macro drives the sentiment that drives the bubbles.

In the UK everyone things houses and BTL etc are a sure thing.The last 40 years of macro has created that thinking.That will now deliver maximum pain.

In stock markets everyone thinks the tech companies will take over the world,and passive investing is the certain way to go.Again they will learn the fallacy of that.

 

 

I like the contrarian logic of that saying.It's weird that to find anyone who's not a property bull you have to frequent odd corners of the interweb like this blessed place.It may not make you rich but it'll keep you sane.

I've been through two bubbles thus far in my life.Tech bubble and 07/08.Each one drew in an insane amount of people that lsot lots of money in teh final reckoning.Having said that,we didn't get the debt deflation post 08 to cleanse the system that we needed.Hence the mother of all bubbles has been blown to try and keep the plates spinning.I've given up trying to offer the other side of the argument to friends who are throwing their all into a property scheme.People jsut aren't even vaguely interested in alternatives eg bank/builder shares

9 hours ago, stokiescum said:

i wonder how many proffesional economists have seen this comeing,because in 2008 only a couple out of tens of thousands saw the titanic needed to change course,it blindsided litteraly every country in the world.i know the chinese and russians have been buying gold and we now have stress tested our banks but how many others are ready...

not sure if its fake news or not but i heard the eec had drawn up proposals for bail ins from the public if needed,any idea if this is true or a myth.

I read a report on Steve keens website many years ago that around 13 of 15000 academic economist worldwide predicted the GFC in 08.

It beggars beleif that so few did when they had such a pivotal role in creating it.

7 hours ago, MrXxx said:

All from the pensions...I think it was DB who mentioned about taking a private pension early and suffering a penalty rather than waiting for the 100% at 65 and finding its no longer there (or has had a `haircut`).

This made me think about the State Pension and additional contributions if you need to pay them...whilst it offers good value for money/return, I would suggest that it is only wise if you are close to retirement rather than a long way off.

Years back they changed the solvency rules(or is it liquidity ratios) and basically raised the amount of govt debt (risk free :ph34r:) that pension funds had to buy.I don't know much about pensions but it struck me at the time as a canny way of soaking up increased issuance.

7 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

So if we are entering a significant bear market, would we expect to see a reduction in bond yields for safe havens like US treasury bonds?

Would there be an opportunity to buy longer dated bonds now and sell them during the depths of a downturn, or would this be priced in already?

I know that yield curve inversion usually indicates a recession but it still looks normal to me

As per previous discussion,if there's increased issuance and reduced number of buyers then we may not get the bond bull we expect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Just an utterly infuriating passage:

"In other industries, when a business fails, it enters insolvency. Its creditors have a claim in that insolvency. How much they recover is determined by their position in the creditor hierarchy and the amount of losses in the firm (i.e. how much money there is available to pay creditors, and should creditors be paid in full, return to shareholders). For large banks and other large financial institutions, it is not in the public interest for them to enter insolvency due to the interconnectedness of the banking system (the insolvency of one bank can cause wide spread problems in financial markets) and the range of essential services they provide to customers and other industries. Disruption to these services could have serious repercussions for the economy."

AKA - do what you want, you won't ever go out of business because we've ensured that you're tentacles are dug in to so much that you won't be allowed to suffer for your mistakes. We'll pass that on to the little people.

Makes me want to set up my own political movement to shred these fuckers.

I personally have little doubt that we will have bail ins for distess banks and a distressed government.  It will hit those with money (like a wealth tax but politically more correct for say the Cons) so be more socially acceptable since most people (voters) will not be affected.  And you don't do something steathily like this without reason.  Even trial run it elsewhere (Cyprus) first.  And it may have some gloss like a worthless bond in a bad bank instead but will amount to the same thing.  Oh, and the smart (old) money left these shores into the massive offshore world a long time ago.  Cyprus hit the little person, not the big boys, Russians, etc.  They were no doubt well gone, otherwise they'll be a few more people hanging from Blackfriars Bridge by now.  Bank deposits with the veneer of the FCSC protection, ISAs, and pensions.  What the govt giveth, the govt takes away.  And the banks just take,  Fat targets.  Hell, the only targets left!   

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, sleepwello'nights said:

Year end bonuses for the traders.

Does this then mean that we will see a recovery in the next few months, so that they can have one last chance to trouser their bonuses before the shit really hits the fan?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The problem is the lack of fund choice in most employer pensions.Another problem is most people have no understanding.I would say in my new employer on the shop floor hardly anyone will even consider their pension.They just see £300 a month go off their pay each month.The problem for me is the lifestyle options.£100k pot can become £50k very easily if we see an equity hit followed by a bond bear as i fully expect.

I think that's the issue...like most facets of personal finance, people can't be bothered to educate themselves and so they get screwed over, and the providers know that!...I was one of these ignorant majority until about five years ago when I started reading forums such as this and realize what I was missing out on!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I thought I remembered you DB saying, a couple of years ago on ToS, that if we do see equities fall hard then there will be a recovery which will tempt buyers to scoop up for cheap, but then there will be another and much more severe drop which will feel like a depression. Did I understand that correctly and is it still your feeling if so?

1929-32 all over again.  Most lost most on the second leg down.  Remember, we all believe in buying the dip now, as then!  As DB says, the market ensures the most loses the most and for that to happen we need something most people are blind to.  So not the yap to date (even if most people may have not heard it), but maybe a fall (like yes we all knew 'cause everyone said so), then a bounce (with the pundits saying all clear now, or oh how wrong we were), and then the big one.  Or a totally left field black swan type event.  A trying time as we have to think out the box, at the same time as maintaining some balance in case we're wrong.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

UK weather forecast: Snow hits UK on one of the coldest October days in a decade

Heavy snow fell in parts of County Durham and North Yorkshire, as people who headed out early found their cars covered and frozen...
 
 
Apologies for being of topic...
 
Hey DB, is it that bad up there...it will be trickie in that weather going to get the RYS on me push-bike...
 
EXCELLENT read here as ever,Keep up the good work folks!
 
OK nothing more to add so I'll go back to living in me puddle...O.o
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Seems like in the US the biggest bag holders at nearly 40% of the market are household direct holdings.

equity-ownership.png

Shouldn't households, pension funds and mutuals (even possibly insurers) be grouped together for these purposes? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Just an utterly infuriating passage:

"In other industries, when a business fails, it enters insolvency. Its creditors have a claim in that insolvency. How much they recover is determined by their position in the creditor hierarchy and the amount of losses in the firm (i.e. how much money there is available to pay creditors, and should creditors be paid in full, return to shareholders). For large banks and other large financial institutions, it is not in the public interest for them to enter insolvency due to the interconnectedness of the banking system (the insolvency of one bank can cause wide spread problems in financial markets) and the range of essential services they provide to customers and other industries. Disruption to these services could have serious repercussions for the economy."

AKA - do what you want, you won't ever go out of business because we've ensured that you're tentacles are dug in to so much that you won't be allowed to suffer for your mistakes. We'll pass that on to the little people.

Makes me want to set up my own political movement to shred these fuckers.

I remember reading William White(famous old school CBer)  saying something to the effect of'

'The best way to stop a banking system leveraging up is to let a bank go bust once in a while'..

He retired from the BIS on 30 June 2008....................................................................

'He predicted the financial crisis of 2007–2010 before 2007's subprime meltdown (Subprime mortgage crisis).[2] He was one of the critics of Alan Greenspan's theory of the role of Monetary Policy as early as 1996. He challenged the former Federal Reserve chairman's view that central bankers cannot effectively slow the causes of asset bubbles. On 28 August 2003, White made his argument directly to Greenspan, at the Kansas City Fed's annual meeting in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. White recommended to "raise interest rates when credit expands too fast and force banks to build up cash cushions in fat times to use in lean years."[3]'

5 hours ago, AnythingWithWheels said:

Exactly this. I implement algorithmic trading platforms for a living.  The algos trade purely on momentum over very short timescales - the longest measured in seconds.  The aim is to get in and out of a trade as quickly as possible, nicking a tiny profit each time.  Making $100,000 from billions of traded volume is a very good day.

One interesting study I worked on this time last year was an attempt to identify exactly how liquid the FX market is by a major market maker surprised at the size of the market reaction when the SNB removed the EURCHF peg. There are very few true market makers in the FX market, but tons of agency players. While there might well be plenty of depth in a given market, most of those bids and offers are simply recycled. So, when TSHTF, it only takes one participant to pull a quote or order and all that lovely liquidity dries up instantly. I won't divulge the method used, but it gave very reliable results and indicated that, even in major pairs, up to 80% of the liquidity available to the bank was actually its own liquidity being quoted back to it. I discussed the results with some HFT equities guys who indicated that they regularly undertook similar studies, with similar results.

I don't think the above points to a slow grind down. If the market gets through the first week of November relatively unscathed, I think it's oversold enough for a Santa rally, then some very steep drops in the first half of 2019. The algo traders won't care; they make money regardless of market direction. The pension funds are holding the bag this time.

Parody eats itself.

'up to 80% of the liquidity available to the bank was actually its own liquidity being quoted back to it.'

Thanks for a fascinating insight into an opaque world.

I remember watching Joe someone or other from Themis Trading on ZH years ago warning about the algos destroying price discovery.

Much like ETF's that could all face withdrawals at the same time,this is another structural weakness that could play havoc in any downturn.

As I've said over these last few pages my technicals have pulled me out of my UK builder shorts.Market looks heavily oversold but I'm no expert and not on the inside liek you are.

As per discussion with Barnsey my money is either crash here or rally into Dec and then down she goes.Could be neither but some of the internal dynamics of various markets are indicating that the bubble is hissing air-number of shares down 50% from peak on the S&P,indices held up by one or two mammoth companies. etc

I have a sneaking feeling you're right on the last bit in bold.

3 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

UK or US?

Seems like in the US the biggest bag holders at nearly 40% of the market are household direct holdings.

equity-ownership.png

WtsbW6k.png&key=483f2efaad54df49818eb35e

BN-QB950_HOUSEH_G_20161003092901.jpg

 

Data is in Fed Res Z1 package if you anyone can be arsed to wade through it

I wonder if that figure is so high because of people's 401k being classed as individual?

 

7 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Does this then mean that we will see a recovery in the next few months, so that they can have one last chance to trouser their bonuses before the shit really hits the fan?

That's generally how it goes.....decent rally for the insiders to sell into.

10 minutes ago, Harley said:

1929-32 all over again.  Most lost most on the second leg down.  Remember, we all believe in buying the dip now, as then!  As DB says, the market ensures the most loses the most and for that to happen we need something most people are blind to.  So not the yap to date (even if most people may have not heard it), but maybe a fall (like yes we all knew 'cause everyone said so), then a bounce (with the pundits saying all clear now, or oh how wrong we were), and then the big one.  Or a totally left field black swan type event.  A trying time as we have to think out the box, at the same time as maintaining some balance in case we're wrong.

That sums it up harley.Difficult balancing act

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Quick question, if Silver really does take off, would it make sense to invest in a Silver ETF such as SLVR within an ISA (0.5% ongoing charge), or for security to buy stored Silver through Bullionvault, being subject however to 10/20% CGT beyond the current allowance of £11700?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I wonder if that figure is so high because of people's 401k being classed as individual?

1

If I was to take a punt, it's that our friends across the pond are more likely to invest than us Brits, whether it's in tax wrappers or not. It's more of a culturally done thing over there. I do believe that the benefit of a 401 and Roth IRA is tax-free while saving on the way in but full tax on the way out so doubt it makes a major difference. Here in the UK, your average joe's exposure to investing is only through their a workplace pension. I bet most don't even know their funds are being invested either. None of my acquaintances is investing that I'm aware of, the few that opened LISA's all went for a cash LISA. I've tried talking to friends about tax relief and they think I'm mental. It's all about property

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Data is in Fed Res Z1 package if you anyone can be arsed to wade through it

I can't, but there is a lot of overlap in those categories.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

36 minutes ago, Harley said:

Shouldn't households, pension funds and mutuals (even possibly insurers) be grouped together for these purposes? 

It depends which way you want to look at it. I'm just dispelling the myth that the pensions are holding the bags. It's actually the actives who either in their 401ks or not are deep in specific companies. I mentioned this earlier in the thread when SP was saying that it was the passive/ETF's will be the ones selling, due to their nature, which I don't disagree with. Having said that, the volume is small in comparison to the actives.  In my opinion, it will the joe blogs with his retirement fund in Amazon, who is going to be throwing the towel in. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

If I was to take a punt, it's that our friends across the pond are more likely to invest than us Brits, whether it's in tax wrappers or not. It's more of a culturally done thing over there. I do believe that the benefit of a 401 and Roth IRA is tax-free while saving on the way in but full tax on the way out so doubt it makes a major difference. Here in the UK, your average joe's exposure to investing is only through their a workplace pension. I bet most don't even know their funds are being invested either. None of my acquaintances is investing that I'm aware of, the few that opened LISA's all went for a cash LISA. I've tried talking to friends about tax relief and they think I'm mental. It's all about property

I'd agree with that.I was working with someone last weekend and we were chatting about buying houses versus renting.During the chat she said she didn't know a single person with any shares.

Going back 50 years iirc something like 60% of the shares in the UK were owned by individuals.I read it back when my grandad made me read Bernard gray Investment for Beginners or some book like that.

ref that last bit in bold.That's my expereince even with the guys making big bucks as consultants on hgih day rates.It's wall to wall BTL on the whole.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

It depends which way you want to look at it. I'm just dispelling the myth that the pensions are holding the bags. It's actually the actives who either in their 401ks or not are deep in specific companies. I mentioned this earlier in the thread when SP was saying that it was the passive/ETF's will be the ones selling, due to their nature, which I don't disagree with. Having said that, the volume is small in comparison to the actives.  In my opinion, it will the joe blogs with his retirement fund in Amazon, who is going to be throwing the towel in. 

iirc passive ETF's are now something like 8% of the market but I could be worng.For me the key issue with them is that they are mechanical buyers/sellers and that's what makes me wary especially in a big bull or a big bear(remember those...)

 

It's like people float the margin debt stats on the NYSE as a structural risk...yes...but it's less than 1% of trades I believe.

 

Add all these structural risks including the excellent one made earlier in the thred by anything on wheels.and you have a huge potnetial problem.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Quick question, if Silver really does take off, would it make sense to invest in a Silver ETF such as SLVR within an ISA (0.5% ongoing charge), or for security to buy stored Silver through Bullionvault, being subject however to 10/20% CGT beyond the current allowance of £11700?

Personally,and I am a bit of a gambler I guess,but if silver takes offf the miners is where the action will be.Like all great hypocrites,I'm genuinely pondering a PM mining ETF because I'm struggling to find the right balance of PM miners.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'd agree with that.I was working with someone last weekend and we were chatting about buying houses versus renting.During the chat she said she didn't know a single person with any shares.

Going back 50 years iirc something like 60% of the shares in the UK were owned by individuals.I read it back when my grandad made me read Bernard gray Investment for Beginners or some book like that.

ref that last bit in bold.That's my expereince even with the guys making big bucks as consultants on hgih day rates.It's wall to wall BTL on the whole.

It's almost as if the one way property bubble bet has taken money away from everything else.  This possibly explains FTSE100's much lower PE ratio compared to US indexes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

That's my expereince even with the guys making big bucks as consultants on hgih day rates.It's wall to wall BTL on the whole.

It’s the professional classes dirty little secret. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

iirc passive ETF's are now something like 8% of the market but I could be worng.For me the key issue with them is that they are mechanical buyers/sellers and that's what makes me wary especially in a big bull or a big bear(remember those...)

 

It's like people float the margin debt stats on the NYSE as a structural risk...yes...but it's less than 1% of trades I believe.

 

Add all these structural risks including the excellent one made earlier in the thred by anything on wheels.and you have a huge potnetial problem.

It's hard to find nailed down data that's sourced and easily digestible. I'm even taken the data I found in the z1 package with a grain of salt. As you can see from the graphs I've posted passive and ETF's are increasing year on year and there is no denying their increasing popularity. If one has the option to pay someone 2% when you can get the same or better for a fraction, of course, it will be popular.

I don't disagree with you on the mechanical side of them. Naturally as well an active fund/manager or single investor is going to act very differently,  I don't think any of us really know how these will behave in combination in a major run. Least let us not forget the actives are also employing algos and bots to boot. It's going to be interesting that's for certain.

 

23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I'd agree with that.I was working with someone last weekend and we were chatting about buying houses versus renting.During the chat she said she didn't know a single person with any shares.

Going back 50 years iirc something like 60% of the shares in the UK were owned by individuals.I read it back when my grandad made me read Bernard gray Investment for Beginners or some book like that.

ref that last bit in bold.That's my expereince even with the guys making big bucks as consultants on hgih day rates.It's wall to wall BTL on the whole.

 Do you know when the shift culturally was? A major event or just over time? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Personally,and I am a bit of a gambler I guess,but if silver takes offf the miners is where the action will be.Like all great hypocrites,I'm genuinely pondering a PM mining ETF because I'm struggling to find the right balance of PM miners.

SIL - https://www.globalxfunds.com/funds/sil/ - is good, but it's annoying because on ii you can't trade it now due to no KIID. I have some but can't get any more due to this.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s the professional classes dirty little secret. 

Indeed. But, I think the cosy reputation of BTL as being safe as houses has turned. A relative of mine who bought a BTL quite some years ago in the south-east "as a pension" now says she wishes she'd sold it rather than renew the mortgage six months ago.  Just as the professional classes couldn't get their arses through the doors of the banks and building societies on the way up, there'll be a humungous rush for the exits when it becomes abundantly clear that UK resi is in freefall.  Anyone with a bit of spare cash and a lack of imagination has a rental property, whether that be one bought specifically to rent, or a starter home that was kept on when upsizing, because servicing debt was cheap.

Even the most (North London) property-obsessed people I know, including a woman who used to go and look around houses on the market, for fun(!) have fallen out of love with it now that the trend is downward.

30 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I'm just dispelling the myth that the pensions are holding the bags. It's actually the actives who either in their 401ks or not are deep in specific companies

Interesting viewpoint. Maybe I can be arsed to have a look through the data rather than go on gut feel based on the crappy investment "options" in my previous-workplace pension.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

 Do you know when the shift culturally was? A major event or just over time? 

I think the seeds of BTL were sown after Black Wednesday and the introduction of ASTs, however there was actually a business case for it then, even without capital appreciation. However, things went really mental after the dot-com bust, which put a generation off equities, combined with the easy availability of BTL finance in the early and mid 2000s.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Inoperational Bumblebee
On 26/10/2018 at 16:16, DurhamBorn said:

My portfolio is -0.2% today,very happy with that.

Since investing in the style of this thread, mine has been disturbingly stable despite the falls. Similar figures to you, perhaps even less.

On 26/10/2018 at 21:53, Barnsey said:

Just want to thank @DurhamBorn for helping us all by starting this topic way back when on t'other site to discuss what was then a relatively abstract prediction for next 5+ years once the markets solidly turn down, amazing to see this prediction pan out and become more commonly discussed on the Twittersphere by all sorts of unrelated folks. Everything going on right now is just noise I guess, some losses heading into the deflationary bust will be inevitable, and to try to maintain my sanity I'll be concentrating on how they do coming out the other end, very difficult as I do like to keep an incredibly close eye on daily moves. Stressful and exhilarating in relatively equal measure. This really is tax free gambling in some ways, dangerously addictive.

Obviously there are so many others here making very valuable insightful contributions, some who trade in shorter time frames, and the lines become a little blurred between short term gains and longer term holds, but continues to make this topic a great place to share ideas, thanks to all thus far and here's to a very dynamic few months ahead!

I'm enjoying the ride. It feels safer than crypto!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...