Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[Band]

26 minutes ago, UmBongo said:

It's the 1st Thursday of the month. Is there going to be a decision by the BoE on interest rates today? 

Unlikely to be a rate rise as it hasnt been in the press a few days before like the other times.

[sancho panza]

Some huge rallies in the UK builders over the last few days.Transactions are still on their @rse ,it always amazes me how markets move and why.

https://www.investing.com/indices/household-goods-components

Retailers up near 3%

https://www.investing.com/indices/general-retailers-components

HUI still on the floor

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs

 

Interesting times.....................................................is it a Brexit agreement rally into Christmas?....

 

 

[kibuc]

Really poor productions numbers from Sibanye today, with shares going down 7% on a hugely green day. I know @DurhamBorn they are on your list due to their massive resource base, but operationaly they've been a mess this year. Production down 20% YoY, AISC +20% YoY (and +10% QoQ), that's is absolutely terrible.

[Rave]

Hope nobody minds but I've seen some freezer chat in this thread in amongst the high level financial stuff, so thought I'd ask here.

To cut a long story short I've got an upright freezer. When we moved into my mum's 8 years ago we bunged it in the garage and used it for several years as a kind of overflow one for when we'd stocked up on bargains, or when we needed more space at Christmas. It worked fine as far as I can remember. But we shut it off a couple of years ago to defrost it and never switched it back on again.

We've now moved into a new home and so got it out of the garage and installed it here. We left it a few hours after moving it before switching it on. It doesn't seem to work at all well now- the motor seems to run more or less constantly, but I'm sure it's not getting very cold at all; for example the ice cream lollies I buy regularly from Lidl seem much softer coming out of this one than they did coming out of the chest freezer at my mum's. My wife complained today that it seems to be dripping water out of the front.

So I'm thinking of emptying it, bunging the stuff back in my mum's freezer for a couple of days, and flipping it upside down for 24h, before leaving it another 24h and turning it back on. Is that worth a go? I'll have to try and buy another one if not.

[DurhamBorn]

20 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Really poor productions numbers from Sibanye today, with shares going down 7% on a hugely green day. I know @DurhamBorn they are on your list due to their massive resource base, but operationaly they've been a mess this year. Production down 20% YoY, AISC +20% YoY (and +10% QoQ), that's is absolutely terrible.

580k rand costs they are lucky the rand fell so hard.SA assets are nearly all marginal so any safety stops hit margins hard.Iv owned Sibanye several times over the years and made a lot of money on them,but only have a very small holding this time because i hold a lot of Harmony and didnt want any more SA exposure.The ironic thing is if PMs rally hard Sibanye will probably 3 to 5 x in price,but its a dangerous stock at the best of times,with debt and deal making clouding things.Looking at production its likely they are struggling to mine the shaft pillars due to safety reasons.Harmony have the best team for that,but doubt they would want Sibanye's mines.

[DurhamBorn]

15 hours ago, stokiescum said:

and once the kids leave home its all reduced by a hell of a lot,its quite funny at some of the messages i get from female friends on facebook sniffing around once they cant get any benis for them.and trust me its like shooting fish in a barrel on the dateing sites on the internet.

Yep sure is.Most are starting to kick in now where tax credits end and they find themselves on UC or their 16 hour job wont cut it.Brown has ruined their lives by giving them such a free ride for so long.

[King Penda]

29 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep sure is.Most are starting to kick in now where tax credits end and they find themselves on UC or their 16 hour job wont cut it.Brown has ruined their lives by giving them such a free ride for so long.

just the rents a shock from a tocken payment up to 5-600 quid for a 3 bed semi.one friends bleating on facebook about universal credit and how much she is looseing when it kicks in,i said cut back like the rest of us.i pointed out she had gone to manchester to see shinedown last night had paid to meet the band and had a huge fuck off haloween party saturday night that was not aimed at kids has she was in manchester last night staying in a hotel.....all i got back was i deserve the ocasional treat.

[DurhamBorn]

17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This countries got some warped ways of rewarding the frugal and careful.

In Liecester average wage is crica £20k average house in LE2 is £200k.Gof igure how that's happened.

For me,I've opted out and taken the best path we can.This country stopped being a fair place for workers many years ago.The 1% do well and those who can milk the benefits system do well,for everyone else,life is edgier.

Exactly.The government wont be seeing any income tax from my new job.£12k a year the other £30k into my Sipp.Zero tax.As soon as my Sipp is near £100k that will be it.With compound interest and tax free 25% i should be able to get £12k a year from 57 to 67 and empty it, then state pension kicks in and a small DB pension keeping me at £12k.Most of my assets are already in ISAs and a fully paid for OO house on top of that.Perfect structure for tax.ie pay none.Im close to Inheritance tax levels so the Sipp is a no brainer as well at the moment.Once its live if im over IHT i can dispose of assets to keep me in line.

 

[King Penda]

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Some huge rallies in the UK builders over the last few days.Transactions are still on their @rse ,it always amazes me how markets move and why.

https://www.investing.com/indices/household-goods-components

Retailers up near 3%

https://www.investing.com/indices/general-retailers-components

HUI still on the floor

https://www.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs

 

Interesting times.....................................................is it a Brexit agreement rally into Christmas?....

 

 

yes tw. has recovered quite a bit.but no where near its 215 hight 3-4 months ago.i keep promiseing myself to sell at 2 quid but i never do.its the bloody divis i like.i might not get a lot but how much would i need in a current acount to get around 150 quid a year interest.

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Really poor productions numbers from Sibanye today, with shares going down 7% on a hugely green day. I know @DurhamBorn they are on your list due to their massive resource base, but operationaly they've been a mess this year. Production down 20% YoY, AISC +20% YoY (and +10% QoQ), that's is absolutely terrible.

Love the contrast in reporting:

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2018-11-01-sibanye-stillwater-reports-a-dismal-third-quarter-at-its-gold-mines/

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/sibanye-stillwater-records-a-solid-performance-17729594

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Love the contrast in reporting:

https://www.businesslive.co.za/bd/companies/mining/2018-11-01-sibanye-stillwater-reports-a-dismal-third-quarter-at-its-gold-mines/

https://www.iol.co.za/business-report/companies/sibanye-stillwater-records-a-solid-performance-17729594

share drop says dismal,

still thats nothing compared to where these tin pot goldminers go, ive seen some ride +/- 5% in a day and end up equal, they really can be wild (even on no news).

[Option5]

1 hour ago, Rave said:

Hope nobody minds but I've seen some freezer chat in this thread in amongst the high level financial stuff, so thought I'd ask here.

To cut a long story short I've got an upright freezer. When we moved into my mum's 8 years ago we bunged it in the garage and used it for several years as a kind of overflow one for when we'd stocked up on bargains, or when we needed more space at Christmas. It worked fine as far as I can remember. But we shut it off a couple of years ago to defrost it and never switched it back on again.

We've now moved into a new home and so got it out of the garage and installed it here. We left it a few hours after moving it before switching it on. It doesn't seem to work at all well now- the motor seems to run more or less constantly, but I'm sure it's not getting very cold at all; for example the ice cream lollies I buy regularly from Lidl seem much softer coming out of this one than they did coming out of the chest freezer at my mum's. My wife complained today that it seems to be dripping water out of the front.

So I'm thinking of emptying it, bunging the stuff back in my mum's freezer for a couple of days, and flipping it upside down for 24h, before leaving it another 24h and turning it back on. Is that worth a go? I'll have to try and buy another one if not.

If it was tipped on its side during the move turning it upside down can help. The problem arises as the pump contains oil (refrigerant is very dry an causes moving parts to wear). If it's tipped on its side the oil can get into the circulation pipes and condenser so the upside down trick is to get it to pool in the pipes at the top so when you turn it back the oil runs down into the pump.

[sancho panza]

45 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

yes tw. has recovered quite a bit.but no where near its 215 hight 3-4 months ago.i keep promiseing myself to sell at 2 quid but i never do.its the bloody divis i like.i might not get a lot but how much would i need in a current acount to get around 150 quid a year interest.

you thought about swapping the shares for some centrica/vodafone?...DYOR natch.

[reformed nice guy]

58 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

just the rents a shock from a tocken payment up to 5-600 quid for a 3 bed semi.one friends bleating on facebook about universal credit and how much she is looseing when it kicks in,i said cut back like the rest of us.i pointed out she had gone to manchester to see shinedown last night had paid to meet the band and had a huge fuck off haloween party saturday night that was not aimed at kids has she was in manchester last night staying in a hotel.....all i got back was i deserve the ocasional treat.

“There is one aspect of the change in moral values brought about by the advance of collectivism which at the present time provides special food for thought. It is that the virtues which are held less and less in esteem and which consequently become rarer and precisely those on which the British people justly prided themselves and in which they were generally agreed to excel. The virtues possessed by Anglo-Saxons in a higher degree than most other people, excepting only a few of the smaller nations, like the Swiss and the Dutch, were independence and self-reliance, individual initiative and local responsibility, the successful reliance on voluntary activity, noninterference with one's neighbour and tolerance of the different and queer, respect for custom and tradition, and a healthy suspicion of power and authority.”

― Hayek F.A. The Road to Serfdom

[Rave]

8 minutes ago, Option5 said:

If it was tipped on its side during the move turning it upside down can help. The problem arises as the pump contains oil (refrigerant is very dry an causes moving parts to wear). If it's tipped on its side the oil can get into the circulation pipes and condenser so the upside down trick is to get it to pool in the pipes at the top so when you turn it back the oil runs down into the pump.

Cool thanks- it was tipped on its side to go in the car. Thing is though, to get it upside down and then back upright again it has to pass through a state being on its side?! :p Is there a correct orientation to rotate it through? I guess if I can see where the return pipe is I turn it in such a way that the oil goes back to the pump rather than back into the condenser?

[Option5]

Just now, Rave said:

Cool thanks- it was tipped on its side to go in the car. Thing is though, to get it upside down and then back upright again it has to pass through a state being on its side?! :p Is there a correct orientation to rotate it through? I guess if I can see where the return pipe is I turn it in such a way that the oil goes back to the pump rather than back into the condenser?

Just check the pipe to the pump, oh and leave it 24 hours before switching it on.

Turning it is usually to quick for the oil to run too far.

[King Penda]

50 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

you thought about swapping the shares for some centrica/vodafone?...DYOR natch.

Well I have 1200 quid I won’t need this month so do I save it make a capitol overpayment or start to buy defensive shares em

[leonardratso]

50 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

Well I have 1200 quid I won’t need this month so do I save it make a capitol overpayment or start to buy defensive shares em

get shot of your debt i reckon, overpaying is something id do first, doubt youll miss the defensive bottoms in a month, having siad that, my most successful deals have been when the shares have been trending up, dont think ive ever manged to catch a bottom, cept on the way down of course and the bottom was just transitory to newer lower bottom.

[Democorruptcy]

3 hours ago, Rave said:

Hope nobody minds but I've seen some freezer chat in this thread in amongst the high level financial stuff, so thought I'd ask here.

 

Check the door seal still looks good all the way around.

[Errol]

3 hours ago, reformed nice guy said:

“There is one aspect of the change in moral values brought about by the advance of collectivism which at the present time provides special food for thought. It is that the virtues which are held less and less in esteem and which consequently become rarer and precisely those on which the British people justly prided themselves and in which they were generally agreed to excel. The virtues possessed by Anglo-Saxons in a higher degree than most other people, excepting only a few of the smaller nations, like the Swiss and the Dutch, were independence and self-reliance, individual initiative and local responsibility, the successful reliance on voluntary activity, noninterference with one's neighbour and tolerance of the different and queer, respect for custom and tradition, and a healthy suspicion of power and authority.”

― Hayek F.A. The Road to Serfdom

This is why the global masters are so keen on diluting Europe with the sub-saharan African horde.

[MrXxx]

4 hours ago, stokiescum said:

just the rents a shock from a tocken payment up to 5-600 quid for a 3 bed semi.one friends bleating on facebook about universal credit and how much she is looseing when it kicks in,i said cut back like the rest of us.i pointed out she had gone to manchester to see shinedown last night had paid to meet the band and had a huge fuck off haloween party saturday night that was not aimed at kids has she was in manchester last night staying in a hotel.....all i got back was i deserve the ocasional treat.

`Yes you do dear.....But only when you are paying for it!`...I don't people being on benefits when they really need it, but its the ones with a sense of entitlement (who probably have never made contributions,) that really p@ss me off!

[King Penda]

26 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

`Yes you do dear.....But only when you are paying for it!`...I don't people being on benefits when they really need it, but its the ones with a sense of entitlement (who probably have never made contributions,) that really p@ss me off!

i blame the system not the people that use it,but i do struggle to contain a smile with some of the sob storys i read played out live on facebook.knowing full well where they have been on holiday a few months before hand and the sorts of cars they drive all for under 20 hours a week.

[AWW]

53 minutes ago, Errol said:

This is why the global masters are so keen on diluting Europe with the sub-saharan African horde.

If the people of any continent have learned to distrust power and authority, surely it's the people of Africa? Their governments are corrupt from top to bottom.

[Majorpain]

Fruit is down, i repeat, Fruit is down!  Is that psychological $1T line about to fall??!!!

Apparently the worlds demand for $1000 phones is limited...

[dgul]

18 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Fruit is down, i repeat, Fruit is down!  Is that psychological $1T line about to fall??!!!

Apparently the worlds demand for $1000 phones is limited...

The thing I'm interested in is the potential for contagion into the wider market.  The whole thing is on a razor-edge.