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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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ok, someones been busy on copy of sheet1, i see vanguard stuff, just 1 thing some british/euro funds are no longer listed by google finance, so ive added another sheet called scrape which cascades across a number of websites scraping the data and extracting it, up until last week all were available from lse web site but looks like theyve stopped listing them as well, so the first check is on the morning star website, if you can find your fund on there then you can use the xpath in cell A2 to extract it.

List down here what you cant find on google finance and ill try and work them into the scrape sheet so you can use the cell values in the copy sheet.

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Hmm not a fan of wide sheets, but if that what you want then fair enough.

filled a few missing ones in for you, i need to find an LSE replacement site so i can get some redundancy into the scraper since sometimes morning star is off line or too congested, LSE are sods for discontinuing the listings cos that site is nice and fast and simple. Trustnet uses blocks of javascript arrays so thats useless for scraping.

Anyway, il upgrade it if i find a good reliable site.

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Personally,I think that's a fantastic idea.....but given I'm a total bear for 2019 this will be a brilliant excercise and stretch my thinking.

I think we should leave the money out of it.

Also,I think to make it easily copmparable,we should say pick 10 stocks now and then reassess in a years time and declare a winner.I think if we have floating portfolios it will get a lot harder to track.

You can start with one or two and then add up to the ten level for say year end .

 

We could even do one for 2018 and then run a 2019 one at New Year????

 

What say you stokie?

go for it,do divis count.i need to have a look at the stockmarkets now not paid any attention for 6 years.

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Il add my ten shares over the weekend on here.If someone could enter them into whatever spreadsheet for me it would be appreciated,i see gold going $1520,silver $22,GDX $38 and GDXJ $65.Il be switching mid year though into US treasuries as i think we will see TLT at $160 and the biggest bust since WW2 as Powell tightens the world into a disaster,mainly as i dont think he understands leads and lags and simply wants to get rates back to "normal".Trump might get the blame,but the Fed is the cause.

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For me it's rather simple, 100% Wesdome @4.0cad / 2.35gbp. Might "diversify" (haha) into newgold and tahoe in 2019 when (if) the market finally catches up with WDO's awesomeness, before moving it all into IBTL. Pretty much an extreme, all-in version of what @DurhamBorn is suggesting. Makes any spreadsheet clean and easy to maintain.

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a few faults, like some are pence/pounds etc, but heres sheet 2 that someone has constructed, ive added a few scrapes from the scrape sheet.

 

Shares (watching) 2018-11-02 Latest NAV P/L P/L(%) Denom Notes   ETF's / Funds (watching) 2018-11-02 Latest NAV P/L P/L(%) Denom Notes    
Energy               Bonds/Gilts                
Centrica(CNA) 144.00 145.10 1.10 0.76 p LON:CNA   iShares $ Treasury Bond 20+ ETF 328.10 327.38 (0.72) (0.22) p LON:IBTL    
National Grid 823.20 823.80 0.60 0.07 p LON:NG   Vanguard UK Gilt ETF 22.45 22.46 0.01 0.04 p LON:VGOV    
SSE 1150.50 1154.50 4.00 0.35 p LON:SSE                    
                Miners                
Transport               VanEck Vectors Gold Miners ETF 20.38 20.37 (0.01) (0.05) p LON:GDX    
Go-Ahead Group 1581.00 1575.00 (6.00) (0.38) p LON:GOG   VanEck Vectors Junior Gold Miners ETF 23.32 23.31 (0.01) (0.04) p LON:GDXJ    
Stagecoach 181.13 155.40 (25.73) (14.21) p LON:SGC   Smith & Williamson Global & Resources 45.48 46.48 1.00 2.20 p
ISIN: GB00B3RJHY30
  from Scrape
                iShares Gold Producers ETF 630.75 632.00 1.25 0.20 p LON:SPGP    
Telecoms                                
BT Group 258.30 264.65 6.35 2.46 p LON:BT.A   Metals/Commodities                
Vodaphone(VOD) 151.94 150.52 (1.42) (0.93) p LON:VOD   SSLV(silver) 15.88 14.40 (1.48) (9.32) $ LON:SSLV    
                SGLD(gold) 122.72 119.86 (2.86) (2.33) $ LON:SGLD    
Other               TLT(treasury) 124.92 112.31 (12.61) (10.09) $
NASDAQ:TLT (TGT:$150)
   
Royal Mail 401.63 367.70 (33.93) (8.45) p LON:RMG   SIL (silver miners) 32.80 23.90 (8.90) (27.13) $ NYSEARCA:SIL    
BAE 585.77 536.00 (49.77) (8.50) p LON:BA   FCG(Gas ETF) 19.88 19.35 (0.53) (2.67) $ NYSEARCA:FCG    
                COPX(cop miners) 24.57 20.67 (3.90) (15.87) $ NYSEARCA:COPX    
Miners               URAX(ura miners) 14.31 12.31 (2.00) (13.98) $ NYSEARCA:URA    
Rangold 7111.38 6316.00 (795.38) (11.18) p LON:RRS                    
Anglo American 1269.95 1717.40 447.45 35.23 p LON:AAL   Index Trackers                
BHP billiton 1380.87 1611.20 230.33 16.68 p LON:BLT   Vanguard FTSE 100 UCITS ETF 3163.00 3155.00 (8.00) (0.25) p LON:VUKE    
Sibanye Gold 5.49 2.56 (2.93) (53.37) $ NYSE:SBGL   Vanguard FTSE 250 UCITS ETF 3083.00 3078.00 (5.00) (0.16) p LON:VMID    
Yamaha Gold 2.46 2.35 (0.11) (4.47) $ NYSE:AUY   Vanguard S&P 500 UCITS ETF 3987.00 3974.00 (13.00) (0.33) p LON:VUSA    
Harmony Gold 1.75 1.87 0.12 6.86 $ NYSE:HMY   Vanguard FTSE All-World UCITS ETF 6240.00 6238.00 (2.00) (0.03) p LON:VWRL    
Eldorado Gold 1.84 0.72 (1.12) (60.87) $ NYSE:EGO   Vanguard Developed World - Ex UK 33841.00 33841.00 0.00 0.00 p
ISIN: GB00B59G4Q73
  from Scrape
                Vanguard FTSE Global All Cap Index Fund 11809.00 11809.00 0.00 0.00 p
ISIN: GB00BD3RZ582
  from Scrape
                                 
                Vanguard LifeStrategy 60% 17697.00 17697.00 0.00 0.00 p
ISIN: GB00B3TYHH97
  from Scrape
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Seems like there’s a few different things happening here. Whoever’s done that seems to be compiling things mentioned in this thread. What about a thread for picking 10 sticks with 10 grand or something. Weight them how you like maybe. Set a time limit. Short term ish will keep it interesting in the last throws of a bull market but risk it come crashing down. Long term would be a slow burner. You’d think there’d be a website for this really.

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ill pretty it up if i get time, still got some august 2017 hardcoded values for comparison on it, ill knock them all up to todays prices as a reference point.

You can add what ever you like, its not an account i use and ill never delete anything from it.

Ill leave sheet 1 there as a reference and example on how to get prices into the sheet, and those missing are on the scrape sheet.

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10 hours ago, Barnsey said:

FAANG suffers big declines in recent days and weeks, the pillars of the S&P 500, Trump's glorious stock market, threatening his votes leading into the midterms. So he tweets that he's working on a deal with China (to save the markets).

Michael Every, head of Asia Financial Markets at Rabobank says “This seems a perfect way to ensure equities rally into election day, put Xi into a box in terms of what is expected of him and then have someone to blame when the deal then falls through”

Well it worked until the US trade deficit figures came out afterwards and it was greater than expected :-) :-) :-)...not sure if I was reading it correctly (not a finance wizz kid), but on a site that I look the two groups of indices (US/Asia) showed a perfect negative correlation when they were both open together.

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14 hours ago, Sideysid said:

This story: "Our objective is to make great products and service that enrich people's lives" ---- That's actually a great reason for not reporting unit sales, if now instead, they start reporting an "enrichment index" - on how much they have improved their customer's lives after the customer bought an Apple product or service. If this idea catches on, governments might start reporting "Life enrichment" statistics instead of GDP numbers.

14 hours ago, Sideysid said:

 

You mean like this.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/101066981/nz-government-to-lead-world-in-measuring-success-with-wellbeing-measures

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Been seeing "the fourth turning" pop up a lot lately, seems it's linked to an 80 or so year cycle comprised of 4x20 year periods, 4th of which ends in war. If the current fourth turning did indeed commence in 2008, looks like @DurhamBorn's prediction for something nasty to occur at the end of the inflation period ahead (ending 2025-28) may indeed become a stark reality.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strauss–Howe_generational_theory

Sleep well everyone xD

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2 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

A more frequent than usual update from Steven Kaplan is on his blog --

http://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Looks like he's going long on emerging markets.

Great post, very much chimes with what other contrarian investors are thinking right now, perhaps a little early to be going heavy into emerging markets but very much the plan going forward in a few months time, at least to have some exposure to China/India/Brazil/Argentina or like me just go for a lazy (but safer?) MSCI emerging markets index tracker.

As soon as Fed policy reverses, all about PM's and miners, commodities and emerging markets.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Great post, very much chimes with what other contrarian investors are thinking right now, perhaps a little early to be going heavy into emerging markets but very much the plan going forward in a few months time, at least to have some exposure to China/India/Brazil/Argentina or like me just go for a lazy (but safer?) MSCI emerging markets index tracker.

 As soon as Fed policy reverses, all about PM's and miners, commodities and emerging markets.

Just to make the obvious point (or perhaps not) -- if you wait for policy to reverse will it be too late?

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2 minutes ago, dgul said:

Just to make the obvious point (or perhaps not) -- if you wait for policy to reverse will it be too late?

I think there may be a window of opportunity when everyone has lost much of their wealth and scared to put it anywhere but in treasuries, but no harm averaging into most hated sectors over next few months. I don't think the switch from U.S. to emerging markets will be a swift one at all due to ongoing trade wars and the likelihood of this stock decline being prolonged like 2000, a few U.S. rallies a long the way to keep folks invested.

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I remember watching this video around 3 to 4 years ago. Always made me laugh (warning some bad language!).

but have now come across of an old score version of BTFD!

Buy the ****ing dip works well until it doesn't.

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4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

For anyone trying to figure out what's going on with Gold lately and what's to come over next few months (hint: China), very important you read this:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-bottoms-when-the-us-stock-market-crashes-and-or-usdcny.html

$1500+ or gold i think Barnsey and $22+ for silver before Powell tightens the world into a massive debt deflation and epic bear market.The fact he cares zero about leads and lags and only on getting rates to a normal level says it all.We might see a fast recovery in equity markets yet before a final top to suck everyone in.

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5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

For anyone trying to figure out what's going on with Gold lately and what's to come over next few months (hint: China), very important you read this:

https://www.sprottmoney.com/Blog/gold-bottoms-when-the-us-stock-market-crashes-and-or-usdcny.html

Really good article.Gold moves for a variety of reasons for a variety of things.I think the articvle establishes an excellent link at the minute with China.

8 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I think there may be a window of opportunity when everyone has lost much of their wealth and scared to put it anywhere but in treasuries, but no harm averaging into most hated sectors over next few months. I don't think the switch from U.S. to emerging markets will be a swift one at all due to ongoing trade wars and the likelihood of this stock decline being prolonged like 2000, a few U.S. rallies a long the way to keep folks invested.

The 08 sell off featured an early heavy run down in goldies.

I'm beginning to view the next run down  as more likely to be a slow burn thing,like you.

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Good Wolf st piece on buybacks.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/02/where-the-heck-are-share-buybacks-to-bail-out-this-rotten-stock-market/

 

'But companies appear to be backing off their share buybacks: $156 billion in buyback plans were announced in Q3, down from $437 billion in Q2 and down from $242 billion in Q1, according to TrimTabs, cited by the WSJ.

Despite their miserable performance record, these share buybacks have been the only thing that was – if barely – holding up the stock market. But where are they when you need them the most?

Another share buyback queen is GE. Since 2013, it wasted a breath-taking $152 billion on share buybacks (YCharts data), much of it between 2015 and 2017, despite a huge hole in its pension fund, deteriorating operations, and its sick finance division. But its shares have collapsed, and it is now in the process of dismantling itself.

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6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

$1500+ or gold i think Barnsey and $22+ for silver before Powell tightens the world into a massive debt deflation and epic bear market.The fact he cares zero about leads and lags and only on getting rates to a normal level says it all.We might see a fast recovery in equity markets yet before a final top to suck everyone in.

I think its quite likely to go that way leading up to the New Year, every chance of fear to take hold and see a sharp drop in markets but most predictions (technical) seem to suggest an up and down rally through to early next year, potentially surprisingly strong with Gold moving up nicely with it but then falling in the crash along with the miners.

If the £ holds or even gains with the rumoured Brexit progress then I see the next couple months as a good chance to get lots of IBTL, probably even selling off some reflation stocks that are a little in profit if they join the rally, otherwise hold. Seeing technical mapping for a max downside of just 2-4% for $TLT before it's steady rise, before currency fluctuations.

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5 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Good Wolf st piece on buybacks.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/02/where-the-heck-are-share-buybacks-to-bail-out-this-rotten-stock-market/

 

'But companies appear to be backing off their share buybacks: $156 billion in buyback plans were announced in Q3, down from $437 billion in Q2 and down from $242 billion in Q1, according to TrimTabs, cited by the WSJ.

Despite their miserable performance record, these share buybacks have been the only thing that was – if barely – holding up the stock market. But where are they when you need them the most?

Another share buyback queen is GE. Since 2013, it wasted a breath-taking $152 billion on share buybacks (YCharts data), much of it between 2015 and 2017, despite a huge hole in its pension fund, deteriorating operations, and its sick finance division. But its shares have collapsed, and it is now in the process of dismantling itself.

No doubt they're decreasing in power but Nov second biggest month for buybacks, all about Jan blackout period IMO as Feb usually one of the weakest months, after the Dec hike and ongoing trade war things could look very different by then, likely GDP peaked in Q2.

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