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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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9 hours ago, sancho panza said:

HUI got a bit of a kicking today.Some of the bigger silvies got it in the neck eg Couer down 7%,Hecla down 4.5% near it's 2015 15 year low....

Strange times.

https://uk.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs

Coeur is one of the biggest creditors (second biggest) of the freshly-collapsed smelter Republic Metals. Over $13m they may never see again.
https://incakolanews.blogspot.com/2018/11/the-republic-metals-collapse-and-mining.html

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Democorruptcy
15 hours ago, Harley said:

I couldn't help myself......as an ex-smoker knowing how hard it is to stop......and that this is US stuff......and I made out well in the past on days like this (e.g. Tesco).....and needed to add a little bit more of BATS and IMB.....and £7bn, do I look scared?

PS: I hate smoking (of course), but respect everyone's freedom!

I wasn't suggesting it was going to zero, the last share I bought was down 10% on the day. It seems like an opportunity for the blue chips and I was tempted again but held off this time.

It seems a strange carry on the US being anti menthol/vape, surely that will drive more people back to tobacco or just have them stay on it?

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6 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I'm sure I read only the other day that the CEO said no plans to hold the div.

Edit - Two days ago. -

xD

It was in the link on the DT. Journalists never let the truth get in the way of a story

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Just now, Banned said:

It was in the link on the DT. Journalists never let the truth get in the way of a story

If it's in the press then you know the decision has already been made and the story is out as a trap or to soften the blow.

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11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

The dollar index has touched my top target today and my figures show it going down to 85 from here.Interesting to see if that call works out as its pretty much opposite what the market sees.Roadmap says dollar 85 gold $1500+,Silver $22.

Had a buy signal on DXY way back on 26 Sep 18.  Getting old and looks toppy with a pullback due after the last few days.  100 seems a stretch.  85 is an interesting call.  I can see some previous but can also see that for other levels too.  You must be doing some inter-market stuff.  On that, gold too early to call but could be at a critical point, not just because of the $1,200 level.  Watching it now.  Breached $1,200 but at levels where it has done this before and found support.  Net, net, I'm more interested in gold in GBP and would not worry too much down to £900 from todays £930.  Silver's the problem child but looking, in GBP, ready to turn.  I need more PMs for my overall asset allocations so will continue averaging in.  But this all looks like nitpicking against the macro backdrop.

 

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40 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I wasn't suggesting it was going to zero, the last share I bought was down 10% on the day. It seems like an opportunity for the blue chips and I was tempted again but held off this time.

It seems a strange carry on the US being anti menthol/vape, surely that will drive more people back to tobacco or just have them stay on it?

Nah, just me patting meself on the back for having a backbone!

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Vodafone Group PLC (VOD.LN) said Tuesday that organic earnings rose in the first half and it set out new cost-savings targets, but it froze the interim dividend while it works to reduce debt.

The British telecommunications company swung to an operating loss of 2.07 billion euros ($2.33 billion) for the six months ended Sept. 30, compared with a EUR2.01 billion profit in the year-earlier half. This was primarily due to a loss on the disposal of Vodafone India, the company said.

 

Organic adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization--the company's preferred profit measure--was up 2.9% at EUR7.08 billion, Vodafone said. The company narrowed its guidance for growth in organic adjusted Ebitda for its year ending March 31 to 3%, from between 1% and 5% previously.

Revenue for the first half declined 5.5% to EUR21.80 billion, Vodafone said. Organic service revenue--a figure which is closely watched by analysts--rose 0.8%.

The board said it would maintain its interim dividend at 4.84 European cents a share year, and it also intends to keep its full-year dividend at 15.07 European cents a share. The company said it will consider increasing the dividend in the long-term as it reduces leverage.

Chief Executive Nick Read said the company plans to lower its European net operating expenses by at least EUR1.2 billion by fiscal 2021. The company also intends to create a virtual internal tower company across its European operations, and it is reviewing strategic options for those assets.

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39 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Vodafone Group Plc

LONDON: VOD.L (GBp)

 154.58p10.22 (7.08%)

Vodafone dividend — on hold 

Nice bounce for VOD, now approaching 160. I'm very tempted to take a profit at this point.

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A bit of light relief......

"FRANKFURT (Reuters) - Germany has too many banks and there is a strong case for domestic mergers, European Central Bank supervisor Sabine Lautenschlaeger said on Tuesday.  'We have many banks in Germany and, for sure, discussions about consolidation in Germany are a positive, a very positive idea,' Lautenschlaeger told a conference. 'In Germany the synergies within the country are pretty high.'"

How's Deutsche Bank these days?

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1 hour ago, ILikeCake said:

Anyone keeping an eye on Interserve?

Everyone and their dog knows they have problems, somehow they are trading through it and the shorts are not interested.

Kier is much more interesting, 2018 accounts had £601m of equity, £862m of that is intangible assets?  £330m cash in the bank to pay £1526m of trade and other payables?  Marshall wace who made £20m off Carillion are sniffing around for good reason IMO.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0004915632/

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

I wanted to buy more VOD at 1.42 guess not then

 

I was going to buy some more after the earnings, was expecting another dip. Can't win them all.

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

Had a buy signal on DXY way back on 26 Sep 18.  Getting old and looks toppy with a pullback due after the last few days.  100 seems a stretch.  85 is an interesting call.  I can see some previous but can also see that for other levels too.  You must be doing some inter-market stuff.  On that, gold too early to call but could be at a critical point, not just because of the $1,200 level.  Watching it now.  Breached $1,200 but at levels where it has done this before and found support.  Net, net, I'm more interested in gold in GBP and would not worry too much down to £900 from todays £930.  Silver's the problem child but looking, in GBP, ready to turn.  I need more PMs for my overall asset allocations so will continue averaging in.  But this all looks like nitpicking against the macro backdrop.

 

Lots of cross market Harley on our currency calls and a lot of lead and lag work on liquidity flows.Gold and silver are clear longer term.I have no idea how we get there,but im pretty certain a bull market is close in the metals and prepared to take hits before we get there rather than not be positioned.Of course calls can and do fail hence having a balanced portfolio.

I can actually see a case for 74 on the dollar,but thats stretching liquidity flows to extremes without causing a worldwide debt deflation.

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4 hours ago, dgul said:

I completely agree -- that's why I see UK property as following a decade+ slow grind down.  There might be a bit of a crash to start with, but we've got millions of people prepared to BTFD, and plenty of them with the funds to do so.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/01/uk-tenants-to-get-minimum-three-year-contracts-says-minister

I think if Corbin or even a Tory could ever get longer secured tenancies through they would save a generation from at least some of the constant mental torture of waiting for eviction by their all- powerful landlords.

This article seems to indicate that Landlords Would Hate That. That could make some of them want or need to sell and get out before the rush. 

Currently awaiting latest landlord to call and give us the usual 4 weeks notice to get out here in NIreland ...so bring on longer secured tenancies please. 

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

HUI got a bit of a kicking today.Some of the bigger silvies got it in the neck eg Couer down 7%,Hecla down 4.5% near it's 2015 15 year low....

Strange times.

https://uk.investing.com/indices/arca-gold-bugs

Strange times for the Philips Curve -it gets a mention as not being so relevant any more in this article.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2017/11/01/the-phillips-curve-may-be-broken-for-good?fsrc=scn/tw/te/bl/ed/

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24 minutes ago, Thorn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/01/uk-tenants-to-get-minimum-three-year-contracts-says-minister

I think if Corbin or even a Tory could ever get longer secured tenancies through they would save a generation from at least some of the constant mental torture of waiting for eviction by their all- powerful landlords.

This article seems to indicate that Landlords Would Hate That. That could make some of them want or need to sell and get out before the rush. 

Currently awaiting latest landlord to call and give us the usual 4 weeks notice to get out here in NIreland ...so bring on longer secured tenancies please. 

Tenants should have proper security (dependent on not being naughty) -- I remember proper secured tenancies where you where essentially in the house until you died.  Labour's puny 3 year proposal is a sop to landlords, not a threat.  Sure, if it were introduce some would get out of btl, but others will just take it as a 'cost of doing business' -- after all, it is the voids that cost, so longer tenancies are to be encouraged -- it is only the cost-of-delay if you need to sell that's the pain here.

Note that it isn't that I don't think there'll be a largish drop -- it is just that it'll be followed by a grind down forever.  I suppose I'll say that if you buy on the drop you'll have a cheaper house, but you shouldn't expect your 'investment' to hold its monetary value.  Of course, in that case you'll continue to actually have the constant value of 'a house and all of the benefits therein' -- which is the main point of buying (rather than to make money).

 

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26 minutes ago, dgul said:

Tenants should have proper security (dependent on not being naughty) -- I remember proper secured tenancies where you where essentially in the house until you died.  Labour's puny 3 year proposal is a sop to landlords, not a threat.  Sure, if it were introduce some would get out of btl, 

 

If that were to happen itd be the banks getting out of BTL, as theyd be winding the clock back to pre 1996 when Majors govt created BTL 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/buy-to-let/11176988/1996-the-birth-of-buy-to-let-Britain-in-numbers.html

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2 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

A profit? When did you buy in?

Bought two dips below 145 over the last fortnight. 10% was not to be sniffed at. Decided to hold.

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UnconventionalWisdom
15 hours ago, Eventually Right said:

His thesis is that the central banks have injected a huge amount of liquidity into the financial system since 2008, and by tightening, the US is going to suck that liquidity into the dollar, and dollar assets. So DXY and US equities way up in the next year or so, because the rest of the world is even more of a financial basket case than the US.

I don't really follow his logic. The rest of the world are following suit in monetary tightening. .. ECB stopping QE, Canada raising rates, we will go for it too. 

QE on this mad level only worked because everyone did it simultaneously. If the new tact is for tighter monetary policy, I think we'll all head that way. 

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