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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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45 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

For me, I cannot see a reason to not hold this stock for 5 years or more. Todays gain + divi breaks me even, despite averaging down for quite a while. I'm content for the long term.

I completely agree and would have submitted a buy order at a lower level. I was hovering over the sell button at 158 which would have nicked me a couple of hundred quid if I'd gone back in later this afternoon. I know, it's day trading gambling and retail investors' biggest mistake is over-trading... :)

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7 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

It is a bit rapid for my liking. WTI has hit the bottom of my range in a matter of 2 days, Brent not quite there but close. Lets see if it holds. Technically its tagged the base of a 3 year channel as well as the 61.8 fibb retrace of the whole move I traded last year.

Fundamentally, the latest capitulation seems to be a reaction to Saudi production numbers being above quota in October...but as I ssid this is because they pumped for Trump! Why is this not obvious to traders? There are already signs of reversal (they increased the price of exports to the USA the day after the election, oil on water is dropping etc etc). Daily RSI is very low now, and net spec longs have finally reduced to a sensible level, but it'll have to weigh my position size against the madness of crowds.

 

Could you be wrong? Do you wholeheartedly believe/trust the data tables you study and work with as part of your day job? 

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8 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Could you be wrong? Do you wholeheartedly believe/trust the data tables you study and work with as part of your day job? 

Im not putting cattle prod down or questioning his knowledge, but i was in HBOS as an employee when it went to the wall, internally it was 'nothing to see here' and 'carry on as normal', 'it will blow over we'll be fine', luckily i wouldnt trust them as far as i could throw them even back then and my escape plan was always primed and ready to fire up, I could see it was a piece of shit from where i was working, which was basically in the gutter and as soon as i saw fear, i just ejected like a rat leaving a sinking ship. I was lucky, i hadnt been there long enough to get anything meaningful like a redundancy payment so hanging a round was a non runner for me. I did feel sorry for the long termers (for about 20 minutes) and again i was lucky being young enough that i could just shake it off and move along. But yes i was always sceptical about what the official results said on paper and the waste i witnessed first hand.

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1 minute ago, leonardratso said:

Im not putting cattle prod down or questioning his knowledge, but i was in HBOS as an employee when it went to the wall, internally it was 'nothing to see here' and 'carry on as normal', 'it will blow over we'll be fine', luckily i wouldnt trust them as far as i could throw them even back then and my escape plan was always primed and ready to fire up, I could see it was a piece of shit from where i was working, which was basically in the gutter and as soon as i saw fear, i just ejected like a rat leaving a sinking ship. I was lucky, i hadnt been there long enough to get anything meaningful like a redundancy payment so hanging a round was a non runner for me. I did feel sorry for the long termers (for about 20 minutes) and again i was lucky being young enough that i could just shake it off and move along. But yes i was always sceptical about what the official results said on paper and the waste i witnessed first hand.

I know what you mean. Nor do I mean any disrespect to Cattle. Far more knowledgeable than me. However, I'm sceptical that anyone but a very select few at the very top of the food chain really knows the real/accurate numbers. Even then I would take them with a pinch of salt. Anything published for normies to see might as well be worthless in my opinion.

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1 minute ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I know what you mean. Nor do I mean any disrespect to Cattle. Far more knowledgeable than me. However, I'm sceptical that anyone but a very select few at the very top of the food chain really knows the real/accurate numbers. Even then I would take them with a pinch of salt. Anything published for normies to see might as well be worthless in my opinion.

tis true im afraid, being on the inside of the company one would have thought we would have a bit better info than the average joe on the street or the MSM, but the lying toerags that most companies really are, you often dont. I admit that im a a bit of a cunt and im sure people who know me would agree, but i think its because of that, that ive managed to find out sometimes more than  i should, its not beneath me to stick my nose in where i shouldnt and sometimes overhear (by accident of course) things that i shouldnt. Anyways, i best get back to my shredding, ive got all these interserve internal documents to shred and burn before sun up.

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Just now, leonardratso said:

tis true im afraid, being on the inside of the company one would have thought we would have a bit better info than the average joe on the street or the MSM, but the lying toerags that most companies really are, you often dont. I admit that im a a bit of a cunt and im sure people who know me would agree, but i think its because of that, that ive managed to find out sometimes more than  i should, its not beneath me to stick my nose in where i shouldnt and sometimes overhear (by accident of course) things that i shouldnt. Anyways, i best get back to my shredding, ive got all these interserve internal documents to shred and burn before sun up.

17

That gave me a good chuckle

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1 minute ago, Admiral Pepe said:

That gave me a good chuckle

aye, and id only just finished the frigging carillion ones as well. Luckily i still had my old arthur andersons shred and burn machines in the shed, last seen at lehman brothers i believe.

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have a look at the fantasy 2018, malthus played a blinder with the lon:lnga choice (gas etf)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lggMOk7ZJd0TkFQamiN_jWgyhnJ3kLuJ2BhmjFmbVwY/edit#gid=1662780564

 

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I'm slowly learning to be open to others I don't necessarily agree with along with opening my sphere of influence as wide as possible, some of these moves are fierce and not foreseen by technicals, just brings it home how things can turn on a dime when you least expect it, no matter how much you trust the source. Hope of profits can blind flexibility, which is why I leave short term moves to the day traders, all about the macro picture. Still very much on board with @DurhamBorn long term, just the risk of a sharp move down first for PMs and the miners in sync with stock crash, but not huge vs the potential gains after the QE taps are turned on again.

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12 hours ago, ILikeCake said:

Anyone keeping an eye on Interserve?

In the sense of whether taking it's foot of it's head might stop it drowning.

11 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Everyone and their dog knows they have problems, somehow they are trading through it and the shorts are not interested.

Kier is much more interesting, 2018 accounts had £601m of equity, £862m of that is intangible assets?  £330m cash in the bank to pay £1526m of trade and other payables?  Marshall wace who made £20m off Carillion are sniffing around for good reason IMO.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0004915632/

Intagible assets.The bedrock of such stock market illuminaries as Countrywide and Johnston Press.

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

For me, I cannot see a reason to not hold this stock for 5 years or more. Todays gain + divi breaks me even, despite averaging down for quite a while. I'm content for the long term.

I'm the same.I'm a terrible trader so anything under £2 is a bonus to me.

3 hours ago, AWW said:

I completely agree and would have submitted a buy order at a lower level. I was hovering over the sell button at 158 which would have nicked me a couple of hundred quid if I'd gone back in later this afternoon. I know, it's day trading gambling and retail investors' biggest mistake is over-trading... :)

When you look back ay some sales over the years,you always ponder what might have been.In my younger days ie twenties and thirties, I used to bank 10% profits in some stocks with a view to buying them back cheaper,only to watch them soar-Whitbread,Compass,Reckitt B,Gallaher etc etc etc.I learned patience in my early 40's when I met Mrs P.

1

2 hours ago, Admiral Pepe said:

I know what you mean. Nor do I mean any disrespect to Cattle. Far more knowledgeable than me. However, I'm sceptical that anyone but a very select few at the very top of the food chain really knows the real/accurate numbers. Even then I would take them with a pinch of salt. Anything published for normies to see might as well be worthless in my opinion.

I think the key to this is whether you've a sceptical/questioning mind.There are many ways to see how a company is doing and employees are in a unique position fit ehy ask the right questiosn.As are non employees if they use the evidence available to them.

AS a customer you can walk around a factory or shop and have a better idea of how it's doing then peole inside.

History isfull of examples of people at the top of their comnpany who didn't know what was going on eg Fred the Shred

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16 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I think the key to this is whether you've a sceptical/questioning mind.There are many ways to see how a company is doing and employees are in a unique position fit ehy ask the right questiosn.As are non employees if they use the evidence available to them.

AS a customer you can walk around a factory or shop and have a better idea of how it's doing then peole inside.

History isfull of examples of people at the top of their comnpany who didn't know what was going on eg Fred the Shred

Can you not tell from my posts? Or how I'm prodding and challenging you guys all the time ;). I think you might want to ask yourself that, same as CP.

4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm afraid that's not true, even in the supermajors. I hear Bob Dudley for example spouting second hand shite all the time. Most people running oil companies are from a financial background, and don't really understand how reserves work, or decline. Which is why you see stoiip numbers being misquoted for recoverable resources etc., inadequate hedging, and reactionary strategy (buy shale!!). I could go on, but ask a good reservoir engineer or geologist if you want to know whats going on. And very few of those take a global view.

Both to you and SP. I am not referring to your specific company or industry. Nor am I referring to a CEO about the top of a food chain. Don't take things too literally. I'm talking much bigger forces at play. You can look at data and charts all you like, crap in crap out.

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23 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

My information doesn't come from my company folks, and the HBOS analogy is apt. My company is totally stupid with their hedges, and is as liable to go bankrupt as prosper. As I said at the outset, don't invest in oil unless its a divi supermajor. I do my own analysis on global supplies, as I've been trained in how oil fields behave. All the data is public. I don't discuss this in work, everyone is too well paid, fat and happy to be interested.

I'm still content in my analysis. I dont know exactly when, but oil will run high, stay high, and probably destroy the remaining asset bubbles. Possibly by early next year.

I thought you said a couple of pages back your information came from openly sourced information. Can you honestly say that kind of information is of use? It really is as accurate as you think it is?

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18 minutes ago, Admiral Pepe said:

Can you not tell from my posts? Or how I'm prodding and challenging you guys all the time ;). I think you might want to ask yourself that, same as CP.

Both to you and SP. I am not referring to your specific company or industry. Nor am I referring to a CEO about the top of a food chain. Don't take things too literally. I'm talking much bigger forces at play. You can look at data and charts all you like, crap in crap out.

... the Illuminati? O.o

 

( @Admiral Pepe  sorry, I couldn't resist :D)

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah, I've said it twice now, including in the post you quoted. Its very useful, especially the US data as they have to report accurate data or get sued. The middle east is murky, but nature is nature. Fields decline, in a fairly predictable way. 

Time will tell, and as always, dyodd

oops I missed it in the post, it's getting late ha. Yeah I had a quick scan on the EIA site yesterday. Not much use to me with my knowledge. Even so. My point still stands. You say yourself the Middle East is murky but you don't think the US wouldn't want to muddy up their figures perhaps? 

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13 hours ago, AWW said:

I completely agree and would have submitted a buy order at a lower level. I was hovering over the sell button at 158 which would have nicked me a couple of hundred quid if I'd gone back in later this afternoon. I know, it's day trading gambling and retail investors' biggest mistake is over-trading... :)

Most of my biggest mistakes have been selling,not buying.In the tech boom i sold a company i doubled my money on,within a week my friend phoned me at work with the words you lucky bastard have you seen Staffware.They had gone from £5 to about £45.I felt sick.Selling a week early cost me about £60k.Rolls Royce bought at 80p and sold at £1.40,only to go over £10,Whitbread bought at about £5 and sold half my stake at £8 (kept the rest until last year).

What iv learned since starting investing at 14 is step back and be patient.Before you understand a company,understand a cycle.Where are we?,more ,where are we going?.Politics and macro conditions go in cycles.The irony is,the longer a cycle lasts,the more people expect it to last,to the point most dont even consider it a cycle.This dis-inflation has been long,very long.1982.People now dont even consider that because they see the ups and downs along the way.They tend to base their thoughts on when the markets go down as a change,it isnt.

A western market economy doesnt go under,it changes.The last cycle (that is ending right now before our eyes) favoured consumption over investment.Asset companies were not rewarded for investing.They invested to survive.Consumption companies were rewarded.They found a cheap source of products in China and started with 140% margins.Those margins are now about 10% and falling and anyone indebted high is probably already in negative cashflow.People bought houses instead of investing in other real assets and thought themselves experts as houses increased due to rates falling.That will rewind as rates go to new highs in the next cycle.What is old becomes new again.The people buying now on high leverage are making a life changing mistake.Massive interest payments ahead,or they go under and cant buy again.People in their 50s who think houses are pensions are in for a massive shock.There will be no equity release soon outside of maybe the top 10% of houses/values.

We are at a key inflection point and for myself i think it might be the first of two more i will see if i live to an average age.Debt is going to create so much financial dislocation that very few will be able to take advantage of whats ahead,and even less will understand the cycle coming.

Asset companies who have managed to stay profitable at the end of this cycle will be huge gainers in the next.Inflation is going to flow direct to their free cash flow and eat away their debts (as long as they have a good maturity profile).Buying is tricky and a stair case is always the best option,but selling for me is probably 7 years+ away.There will be some mistakes along the way of course,some big ones,but i fully expect most people on this thread will come out well ahead of the herd and the general population.If not then its all here in this thread for people to say how wrong we were.Interesting times.

 

 

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Eventually Right
23 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Fuck me twice.

Pan American Silver to buy Tahoe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tahoe-resources-m-a-pan-amer-silver/pan-american-silver-to-buy-tahoe-resources-for-1-1-billion-idUSKCN1NJ0ZD

That's Tahoe off my soon-to-buy radar, then.

Edit: 55% premium, oh for fucks sake! They couldn't wait two more month, fucking could they?

Haha-same response as me, kibuc!  I was toying the idea of buying some in the last couple of weeks, but decided I owned enough PM miners!  Ho hum...

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7 minutes ago, Eventually Right said:

Haha-same response as me, kibuc!  I was toying the idea of buying some in the last couple of weeks, but decided I owned enough PM miners!  Ho hum...

Yep, my planned timeline was: wait for Wesdome resource update in December, get mid-large stake in New Gold in January before Q4 report, get similar stake in Tahoe in Feb as we should be approaching Escobal restart. Damn. Next I'll see Barrick buying New Gold and Kirkland Lake moving for Wesdome, and there'll be nothing left for me but dust and tumbleweeds.

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37 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Fuck me twice.

Pan American Silver to buy Tahoe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tahoe-resources-m-a-pan-amer-silver/pan-american-silver-to-buy-tahoe-resources-for-1-1-billion-idUSKCN1NJ0ZD

That's Tahoe off my soon-to-buy radar, then.

Edit: 55% premium, oh for fucks sake! They couldn't wait two more month, fucking could they?

They were number 2 on my rubber band list and about a 25% profit from the day they were put on here.In the future that will likely look like a steal for Pan American.Now the question is how under valued are the other silver miners?.

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34 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Fuck me twice.

Pan American Silver to buy Tahoe

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-tahoe-resources-m-a-pan-amer-silver/pan-american-silver-to-buy-tahoe-resources-for-1-1-billion-idUSKCN1NJ0ZD

That's Tahoe off my soon-to-buy radar, then.

Edit: 55% premium, oh for fucks sake! They couldn't wait two more month, fucking could they?

Thats PAAF on my radar, FRES rivalling in size at a big discount.

THO shareholders get a decent board

PAAF shareholders get a BIG increase in reserves (especially gold) for a very good price IMO.

PAAF gets the much better deal.

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Just now, DurhamBorn said:

They were number 2 on my rubber band list and about a 25% profit from the day they were put on here.In the future that will likely look like a steal for Pan American.Now the question is how under valued are the other silver miners?.

I'd say Tahoe was rather unique - a world-class asset with sunday-league management but very little debt. The potential upside was immense. As I said before, I expected it to double just on restarting Escobal alone. I don't know if you can find another silver miner in a similar position, but if you do - please share :)

In the gold space, New Gold shows some resemblance, although Rainy River still needs to prove its worth, and debt is a major concern. Still, I'm upping my stake just in case.

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