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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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48 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah, it would have been.

I think Nationwide are screwed. I won’t shed a tear when they go bust.

Used to do work for them way back.  Nice company and great people.  Went back a while ago.  Very different.

Used to use their international service back in the day.  Very nice and efficient people.  All gone now.

Had some happy times though.

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Democorruptcy
5 hours ago, Castlevania said:

The stupid thing about the 15% limit was that it was a higher percentage than the amount of mortgages of such size that were issued. Following the limit, the number of mortgages issued at 4.5 times earnings or above increased.

This.

There were only 11% when they limited it to 15%.

Re Nationwide they had tighter mortgage lending until the financial crisis when they resented having to pay into the bailout of such as Northern Rock. Tighter lending less bonuses and pay for reckless lenders. It's fairly obvious why they changed tack.

 

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On ‎12‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 23:25, DurhamBorn said:

The dollar index has touched my top target today and my figures show it going down to 85 from here.Interesting to see if that call works out as its pretty much opposite what the market sees.Roadmap says dollar 85 gold $1500+,Silver $22.Those seem crazy calls right now,but iv been buying some more silver miners shares today (Endeavour and Majestic).

Lots more sectors here in the UK getting hit hard.Gambling companies seem to be the last lot to get whacked down.The likes of William Hill and Playtech down over 50% now from highs.

Our bear seems to be going sector by sector.It will be very interesting to see if we continue to fall as the US does or not.Tobacco taking a big whack today.

Debt to GDP in the US is now at 240% where just before the Great Depression it was at 180%.A debt deflation and/or massive inflation are the only ways out.BTL and housing still look the most likely place for the pain in the UK.

Hello Durhamborn,  my first comment on this site and have been following closely for a couple of months now.  Given the current on-going stock market correction, does your roadmap still see silver going to $22 and  if so in what timeline?

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2 hours ago, Moonraker said:

Hello Durhamborn,  my first comment on this site and have been following closely for a couple of months now.  Given the current on-going stock market correction, does your roadmap still see silver going to $22 and  if so in what timeline?

Timeline would be within the next 12 months probably if its to happen.Longer term i see silver at $200 if we do get a full on reflation.There are lots of moving parts at the moment though and the markets will throw off as many people as possible.

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Timeline would be within the next 12 months probably if its to happen.Longer term i see silver at $200 if we do get a full on reflation.There are lots of moving parts at the moment though and the markets will throw off as many people as possible.

Appreciate the view. Best then in these unclear periods.., simply stick to the basics : follow the market, a good deal of patience and average in on the lows when it feels right. Ability also to put any short term losses into context  and  the time plus revalorisation for silver will bring it right.

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2 hours ago, Thorn said:

Infection spreading...

Google parent Alphabet’s stock becomes 2nd FANG to produce ‘death cross’ and Netflix is next - 
https://on.mktw.net/2PuRdc0

Nvidia got smacked after hours, lack of demand from crypto miners for GPU mining rigs must be starting to sting.

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4 hours ago, Thorn said:

Infection spreading...

Google parent Alphabet’s stock becomes 2nd FANG to produce ‘death cross’ and Netflix is next - 
https://on.mktw.net/2PuRdc0

Some of the longer term timing mechanisms alsmot draw you into going all in on the cross eg 200 wma

image.png.9d00eaf309956442b3249c9419ac4205.png

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Nvidia got smacked after hours, lack of demand from crypto miners for GPU mining rigs must be starting to sting.

-17%...good effort

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How boring.  Doing my pre-market plan and nothing special out there.  The government and BBC can't even create some decent trading opportunities.  Need a few more days like this to get into the longs intermediate trading zone and anyway it's business as usual away from the UK markets.  Every day's a fun day but today is no more special. 

PS: Topped up gold and silver yesterday though but they were already approaching the turn.  Got in early though as that opportunity's closed until we get the retracement.  Actually, to be accurate, I never had a full buy signal on gold in GBP (but did in silver) so could suffer but worth a punt given my long term accumulation plan.  Warning - don't trade my plan, and anyways too late!

PPS: Oil production and services sector looking increasingly interesting.

PPPS: Missed another 30 pence on bailing out of MCRO too soon!  Must get these sell signals better sorted.  On well, off on me next adventure.

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9 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Nvidia got smacked after hours, lack of demand from crypto miners for GPU mining rigs must be starting to sting.

Crypto allow Nvidia to charge silly money for gaming cards, put a big dent in their reputation with high end gamers as perception generally was they were being fleeced and/or not even able to buy stock of latest card. Nvidia are right up their with their autonomous driving hardware though but going to be ages before significant shipments occur. 

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My stocks really taking a beating, but need to wait until next pay day before topping up some more at these brexit panic levels, Royal Mail 315p, SSE 1120p, Centrica 142p! Bargains to be had.

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45 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

My stocks really taking a beating, but need to wait until next pay day before topping up some more at these brexit panic levels, Royal Mail 315p, SSE 1120p, Centrica 142p! Bargains to be had.

SSE/CNA may have had a double whammy yesterday... this was in the news too:

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/nov/15/uk-backup-power-subsidies-illegal-european-court-capacity-market

 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

My stocks really taking a beating, but need to wait until next pay day before topping up some more at these brexit panic levels, Royal Mail 315p, SSE 1120p, Centrica 142p! Bargains to be had.

Might be good news as might be worth waiting a bit anyway.  RMG daily technicals, for example, have been worsening except have turned today but need to wait until EOD to confirm.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

My stocks really taking a beating, but need to wait until next pay day before topping up some more at these brexit panic levels, Royal Mail 315p, SSE 1120p, Centrica 142p! Bargains to be had.

I wouldn't be surprised we see a bit of downward trend for a while yet. I'm very much in favour of the ultilties long term and am averaging in on most of them. For me RM I won't touch in it's current form. Too bloated and unions.

Flybe is an interesting one, we had a small discussion in another thread about it. I like them as an airline, use them frequently. The issue I see is I can't see another airline wanting to take that fleet on. I suspect other airlines would rather take their routes that they deem they can make a profit on.

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UnconventionalWisdom

Interesting article taking about most silver miners having production costs greater than silver market price. This can't go on forever

https://srsroccoreport.com/majority-of-silver-miners-sustaining-cost-significantly-higher-than-market-price/

Now, according to the silver mining companies All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC), only two were lower than the current silver market price:

Silver-Miners-AISC-Q3-2018.png

When I put together this chart, the silver price was trading at $14.02 but has jumped up to $14.17 as the broader markets continue to sell off.  However, as we can see, seven of the nine top primary silver miners AISC is higher than the silver market price (BLUE BAR).  The highest AISC of $22.39 per ounce is awarded to SSR Mining which changed its name from Silver Standard.  SSR Mining is mostly a gold mining company with a very high-cost open-pit silver mine in Argentina called their Puna Operations

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27 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Interesting article taking about most silver miners having production costs greater than silver market price. This can't go on forever

https://srsroccoreport.com/majority-of-silver-miners-sustaining-cost-significantly-higher-than-market-price/

Now, according to the silver mining companies All-In Sustaining Costs (AISC), only two were lower than the current silver market price:

Silver-Miners-AISC-Q3-2018.png

When I put together this chart, the silver price was trading at $14.02 but has jumped up to $14.17 as the broader markets continue to sell off.  However, as we can see, seven of the nine top primary silver miners AISC is higher than the silver market price (BLUE BAR).  The highest AISC of $22.39 per ounce is awarded to SSR Mining which changed its name from Silver Standard.  SSR Mining is mostly a gold mining company with a very high-cost open-pit silver mine in Argentina called their Puna Operations

Be aware a high % of silver production is as a byproduct from secondary sources (copper mainly IIRC) who dont care about the price they sell it at, so whilst interesting if you are invested in one those red companies, its not black and white.

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On 12/11/2018 at 22:25, DurhamBorn said:

The dollar index has touched my top target today and my figures show it going down to 85 from here.Interesting to see if that call works out as its pretty much opposite what the market sees.Roadmap says dollar 85 gold $1500+,Silver $22.Those seem crazy calls right now,but iv been buying some more silver miners shares today (Endeavour and Majestic).

Lots more sectors here in the UK getting hit hard.Gambling companies seem to be the last lot to get whacked down.The likes of William Hill and Playtech down over 50% now from highs.

Our bear seems to be going sector by sector.It will be very interesting to see if we continue to fall as the US does or not.Tobacco taking a big whack today.

Debt to GDP in the US is now at 240% where just before the Great Depression it was at 180%.A debt deflation and/or massive inflation are the only ways out.BTL and housing still look the most likely place for the pain in the UK.

Absolutely nailed that one (DXY).  I'll have some of what you're taking!

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4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Maybe there is justice given my (and other's) past dealings.

Justice would be Fred and his loons stripped off all their pension and begging in streets.

 

This is nothing more than expected outcome.

 

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34 minutes ago, Thorn said:

GDX pointing up towards 20.

Got a fake buy signal on 14 Nov 18.  But it's a tough one to trade well.  Might give it a go though what with all your talk about miners.  There's a gap to fill first.  Been snapping up the physical PMs this week though.  Fully allocated now!  Trades only from here unless the SHTF! 

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New Gold having a very nice 3rd day in a row, roughly 14% up in that span. Good enough for me. In the meantime, WDO dropped 8% and is a screaming buy.

I hope these two will keep see-sawing for a bit :)

Sibanye had an even nicer week but they are hardly of any interest to me at this price point.

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Shatner's Bassoon
On 27/07/2018 at 10:18, Solzhenitsyn said:

Just took a look to see how my Infrastrata investment was getting along. Doing very nicely. Strong chart. up 176% since I flagged in over on the other site. Just a shame I only allow myself to put a maximum of 1% of my portfolio in any of these AIM minnows. Hope some of you are making money on this too.

INFA.thumb.JPG.806a6b8520edc307b4315a0654464d12.JPG

Hat tip to Solzhenitsyn. Infrastrata up around 21% today.  

Lots to like about this share - in talks with a major blue chip over an offtake deal, the closure of Rough leaving the UK without gas storage, a highly competent CEO, the board buying shares with their own money, European project of common interest etc. 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/i/infrastrata-plc-ordinary-0.01p?tab=security_details

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