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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker

Average price tag on a home ‘has fallen by over £5,000 since October’

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-price-tag-home-fallen-000100722.html

It is the first year-on-year fall in average asking prices since November 2011, according to Rightmove’s index.

Every little helps...
HOPEFULLY ...this continues with a £5K reduction EVERY month from here on now ...until property is DOWN by 50% / 70% from current metal prices! :Jumping:

 

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18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

These companies tend to pick up inflation as well sloshing about.I would much prefer if Playtech sold off its financial trading arm though as thats a stupid risk.I think the active investors are pushing for that as well so there might be movement on that.Most of the debt is because of buying SNAI and like you id like to see net cash grow on the balance sheet to cover it.SNAI was a great buy though and id expect Playtech to maybe use them to access the US as an Italian outfit.

Hills are interesting.The loss of the machine income in the UK will hit them hard,but they seem to have a fantastic team in the US.Risky,but im happy to build a small stake from these prices down.In past inflation's these sort of companies have done well as people tend to look for escape.The sector is hated and that always gets me interested.

They just sold their 10% stake in Plus 500. Sensible move in selling and at a good price. 

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14 hours ago, Errol said:

Tower Hamlets is near 90% non-white. Interesting place.

,Like most port cities I.e Cardiff`s Tiger Bay, the only difference is that now there is no compunction on these individuals to learn the native language to survive as they have their own infrastructure/community...very much like The British in The Costas!

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23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

These companies tend to pick up inflation as well sloshing about.I would much prefer if Playtech sold off its financial trading arm though as thats a stupid risk.I think the active investors are pushing for that as well so there might be movement on that.Most of the debt is because of buying SNAI and like you id like to see net cash grow on the balance sheet to cover it.SNAI was a great buy though and id expect Playtech to maybe use them to access the US as an Italian outfit.

Hills are interesting.The loss of the machine income in the UK will hit them hard,but they seem to have a fantastic team in the US.Risky,but im happy to build a small stake from these prices down.In past inflation's these sort of companies have done well as people tend to look for escape.The sector is hated and that always gets me interested.

Rank Group is on my watchlist should the share price dive >30%, nothing like the comforting reprieve of sitting in a bingo hall whilst the world burns outside xD

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Anyone hold or have thoughts re: Platinum? Seems to be at a good price point right now? A paragraph in this article caught my attention:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/chinas-fight-against-smog-makes-palladium-2018s-best-metal

Quote

One threat to demand: substitution. Historically, palladium has usually been cheaper than platinum, and therefore was used as a popular alternative since the two metals share many of the same chemical properties. But the recent rally has reversed the price relationship, and now palladium suffers the threat of substitution from platinum.

Still, manufacturers need 18 to 24 months for such changes to take place, so that probably won't be an issue in the immediate future, Suki Cooper, a precious metal analyst with Standard Chartered Bank in New York, said by telephone.

In other news, VW have just announced that sales in their home market are down 23.2% Y/Y O.o

As for the much hated First Group, very positive step putting the money man Matthew Gregory in charge, a ruthless cost cutter, his first results as CEO showing a £130m reduction of net debt Y/Y

https://www.firstgroupplc.com/about-firstgroup/leadership/board-of-directors/matthew-gregory.aspx

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6 hours ago, MrXxx said:

,Like most port cities I.e Cardiff`s Tiger Bay, the only difference is that now there is no compunction on these individuals to learn the native language to survive as they have their own infrastructure/community...very much like The British in The Costas!

And they have tax credits and PIP.

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone hold or have thoughts re: Platinum? Seems to be at a good price point right now? A paragraph in this article caught my attention:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/chinas-fight-against-smog-makes-palladium-2018s-best-metal

In other news, VW have just announced that sales in their home market are down 23.2% Y/Y O.o

As for the much hated First Group, very positive step putting the money man Matthew Gregory in charge, a ruthless cost cutter, his first results as CEO showing a £130m reduction of net debt Y/Y

https://www.firstgroupplc.com/about-firstgroup/leadership/board-of-directors/matthew-gregory.aspx

As I posted previously,Impala is facing the 50 DMA/200DMA X

image.thumb.png.ce4ae90b18d748d3d6cd86f1d3434a95.pngimage.png.32fa0cdde9ad4b2ef2390948d0295b40.png

image.thumb.png.54b79d38bbe80f60d58b4bf0093c523e.png

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3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone hold or have thoughts re: Platinum? Seems to be at a good price point right now? A paragraph in this article caught my attention:

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/energy-commodities/chinas-fight-against-smog-makes-palladium-2018s-best-metal

In other news, VW have just announced that sales in their home market are down 23.2% Y/Y O.o

As for the much hated First Group, very positive step putting the money man Matthew Gregory in charge, a ruthless cost cutter, his first results as CEO showing a £130m reduction of net debt Y/Y

https://www.firstgroupplc.com/about-firstgroup/leadership/board-of-directors/matthew-gregory.aspx

That's an impressive effort by any standards.

In other wtf news,Savills(International EA's are rallying off lows.) because things are really looking up for Bricks n Mortar EA's relying on Chinese money.

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10 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Average price tag on a home ‘has fallen by over £5,000 since October’

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/average-price-tag-home-fallen-000100722.html

It is the first year-on-year fall in average asking prices since November 2011, according to Rightmove’s index.

Every little helps...
HOPEFULLY ...this continues with a £5K reduction EVERY month from here on now ...until property is DOWN by 50% / 70% from current metal prices! :Jumping:

 

I thought of you yesterady YRS,we got a £15 off at Tesco if you spend a ton(lot of money I know).But I've worked out,if we max out the two for one deals on all the stuff we can't get at Aldi,we can save maybe 30-40% on the shop-and get it delivered for £1...............................and we poss spend £3 getting to Aldi.My face lit up when Mrs P told me(she knows these things warm my cycnical old heart)

 

Edit to add-Tescos must be desperate for tunrover.The only time we go is when we get vouchers. 

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4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

In other news, VW have just announced that sales in their home market are down 23.2% Y/Y O.o

 

Too early to tell what the long term effects on the car market EV's will have. In the short term if many countries introduce stringent emission controls for access into major cities then this will boost demand for high efficiency hybrids or EV's. Longer term though I reckon EV's could be economically driven many more miles than current cars, even more so with automated cars which will be running round the clock 365 days of the year - if they become cheap enough then fares will be so low that car ownership could flag significantly and we could be seeing peak volumes ever for the car market in the next decade or two. Car manufacturers struggle enough during recessions but if it perceived long term that overall demand will fall it could become a particularly unloved sector.

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22 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Too early to tell what the long term effects on the car market EV's will have. In the short term if many countries introduce stringent emission controls for access into major cities then this will boost demand for high efficiency hybrids or EV's. Longer term though I reckon EV's could be economically driven many more miles than current cars, even more so with automated cars which will be running round the clock 365 days of the year - if they become cheap enough then fares will be so low that car ownership could flag significantly and we could be seeing peak volumes ever for the car market in the next decade or two. Car manufacturers struggle enough during recessions but if it perceived long term that overall demand will fall it could become a particularly unloved sector.

I'm not sure I agree.  The EV people keep pushing this 'and ICE motors have a gazillion moving parts to break' thing -- but IME the thing that eventually breaks cars isn't the engine giving up, but a major 'something else' that results in an MOT fail or bad breakdown, coupled with a myriad of tiny (non fatal) faults, along with the general wear and tear and scruffiness of the interior that makes it not worth fixing the 'main something else'.  A 10 year old EV is going to have worn seats, the odd mark on the bodywork and a multiple of stupid intermittent faults with the electrics that no-one can really get to the bottom of...   On top of that, you've got the car industry pushing car ownership as a per month cost which possibly works out evens compared with an older car when you factor in maintenance, etc.  I think nothing much will change, other than the expansion of the battery recycling industry.

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48 minutes ago, onlyme said:

Too early to tell what the long term effects on the car market EV's will have. In the short term if many countries introduce stringent emission controls for access into major cities then this will boost demand for high efficiency hybrids or EV's. Longer term though I reckon EV's could be economically driven many more miles than current cars, even more so with automated cars which will be running round the clock 365 days of the year - if they become cheap enough then fares will be so low that car ownership could flag significantly and we could be seeing peak volumes ever for the car market in the next decade or two. Car manufacturers struggle enough during recessions but if it perceived long term that overall demand will fall it could become a particularly unloved sector.

At least VW are making all the right noises in regards to their EV future, interesting recent partnership with Ford and also their announcements of the I.D. range including a golf sized EV which will be significantly cheaper than the Tesla Model 3. Could easily see the VW Neo replacing the Toyota Prius as taxi of choice worldwide whilst we wait to see what happens with driverless. As for your viewpoint @dgul, I think governments worldwide will "force" owners to make the change through heavy taxation and EV incentives, much of this direction based on the global emissions narrative. Centrica now positioning themselves accordingly:

https://www.centrica.com/centrica-electric-vehicle-services

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16 minutes ago, dgul said:

I'm not sure I agree.  The EV people keep pushing this 'and ICE motors have a gazillion moving parts to break' thing -- but IME the thing that eventually breaks cars isn't the engine giving up, but a major 'something else' that results in an MOT fail or bad breakdown, coupled with a myriad of tiny (non fatal) faults, along with the general wear and tear and scruffiness of the interior that makes it not worth fixing the 'main something else'.  A 10 year old EV is going to have worn seats, the odd mark on the bodywork and a multiple of stupid intermittent faults with the electrics that no-one can really get to the bottom of...   On top of that, you've got the car industry pushing car ownership as a per month cost which possibly works out evens compared with an older car when you factor in maintenance, etc.  I think nothing much will change, other than the expansion of the battery recycling industry.

Partly trends - MOT failures due to rust/underbody issues were significantly higher in the 80's/90's than now as consumers just won't accept rotting cars as the used to and besides going for lightweight to get better emissions / mileage plastic panels (or aluminium) are likely to encroach on steel further. I do wonder if the tuner of electrical failures is largely due to frequency of maintenance/repairs carried out on IC engines - electrical connections throughout the car have seals which will be very effective generally as long as they are not disturbed, stripping down multiple connections for clutch/transmission/engine repairs is not going to help at all. EV's might be inherently more reliable due to needing almost not maintenance / overhaul of the engine/transmission, breaks wear should be significantly less as well due to regen.  Interior/exterior - yes will be a continuing issue if not worse as  lighter/cheaper materials are used by the manufacturers to lose weight and improve margins.

Model S battery life is looking very good - surpassing general expectations with trends heading for 80% capacity left at 500K miles, figures which are tempting Tesla to life the engine components at 1million miles, other than the battery not sure if there is any performance degradation at all with mileage (certainly in comparison the wear / efficiency issues with IC engine wear). IF the battery and drivetrain are rock solid maintenance is minimal / almost zero so if it is just a small amount of tarting up expenditure inside and outside of the car I reckon these cars could easily be attractive for 20/30 years compared to industry average of 12-15 year life. Mind you this is for top of the range Model S which are stupid money new, lower models would not have the same desirability.   

https://electrek.co/2016/11/01/tesla-battery-degradation/

I'd really like to see a whole new coach build type companies spring up using base EV's as modular starting points - bit like the kit car explosion in the 70's, that would be really exciting. Being able to transfer a shell//interior straight onto the running gear of a bog standard Leaf/Zoe/whatever that comes down the pipe would be so much less time-consuming than before (apart from electrics) as you probably would not have to touch anything mechanical in comparison to engine/transmission strip and build which you would want before splashing out on kit car then to be sure of some decent usage out of money spent.

 

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38 minutes ago, onlyme said:

I'd really like to see a whole new coach build type companies spring up using base EV's as modular starting points - bit like the kit car explosion in the 70's, that would be really exciting. Being able to transfer a shell//interior straight onto the running gear of a bog standard Leaf/Zoe/whatever that comes down the pipe would be so much less time-consuming than before (apart from electrics) as you probably would not have to touch anything mechanical in comparison to engine/transmission strip and build which you would want before splashing out on kit car then to be sure of some decent usage out of money spent.

I've said it before, but I think the future is a "horse and carriage" model for Electric Vehicles / personal transport.  Those without much need to travel may hire them as we hire taxis now, but a lot will own the "carriage" part - the passenger compartment - themselves, which is then moved about by an electric chassis paid per use or on a subscription model.

This offers the best of both worlds.  Just as a long journey by horse and carriage might involve changing horses multiple times, so the chassis would be replaced as required with no input from the passenger. 

The carriage offers the level of comfort they prefer, a private space to make their own, with almost no safety critical features. The cheapest may only cost a couple of thousand in today's money, or much more for something luxurious with masses of storage, home comforts and even sleeping areas including a comfy bed with their own duvets.

The chassis, once a journey is ordered via an app, will arrive, drive under the carriage and lock on, before taking the carriage to it's destination. If there is a technical problem, this will be detected and a replacement carriage will arrive and take over, while the faulty one returns to it's depot for repair or simply recharging. All this would be controlled via an AI system ensuring unbroken journeys with the passengers able to relax and know the system will get them there one way or another. One could pay a premium for priority service to get somewhere faster by jumping queues at changeover points.

And they wouldn't need to stick to roads either. If it's faster or cheaper to load multiple carriages onto a train, boat or even aircraft, the system will do that too. People would be shuffled around as if the country were one big Amazon warehouse.

It would be much more efficient, safer and, critically, offer the degree of personal comfort people want on long journeys. Cars aren't just for transport, but for storage too.. child car seats, spare clothing, shopping etc... all sorts of things one might need but don't want to have to carry around between journeys as one would if people only used the taxi model. With a personal carriage, everything would be right there, yet when you arrived at your destination, you could take with you only thing things you want on your person. 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

At least VW are making all the right noises in regards to their EV future, interesting recent partnership with Ford and also their announcements of the I.D. range including a golf sized EV which will be significantly cheaper than the Tesla Model 3. Could easily see the VW Neo replacing the Toyota Prius as taxi of choice worldwide whilst we wait to see what happens with driverless. As for your viewpoint @dgul, I think governments worldwide will "force" owners to make the change through heavy taxation and EV incentives, much of this direction based on the global emissions narrative. Centrica now positioning themselves accordingly:

https://www.centrica.com/centrica-electric-vehicle-services

Oh, I completely agree -- it is just that I see EVs as being 'grubby' and starting to be unreliable at 5 years, and worn out by 10 years, just like ICE cars.

There might well be a 'refurb service' for the interior and bodywork (or equivalent), but I'm not sure that the economics would actually stack up without massive changes to the way cars are made (a fundamentally modular approach).

11 minutes ago, MvR said:

I've said it before, but I think the future is a "horse and carriage" model for Electric Vehicles / personal transport.  Those without much need to travel may hire them as we hire taxis now, but a lot will own the "carriage" part - the passenger compartment - themselves, which is then moved about by an electric chassis paid per use or on a subscription model.

This offers the best of both worlds.  Just as a long journey by horse and carriage might involve changing horses multiple times, so the chassis would be replaced as required with no input from the passenger. 

The carriage offers the level of comfort they prefer, a private space to make their own, with almost no safety critical features. The cheapest may only cost a couple of thousand in today's money, or much more for something luxurious with masses of storage, home comforts and even sleeping areas including a comfy bed with their own duvets.

The chassis, once a journey is ordered via an app, will arrive, drive under the carriage and lock on, before taking the carriage to it's destination. If there is a technical problem, this will be detected and a replacement carriage will arrive and take over, while the faulty one returns to it's depot for repair or simply recharging. All this would be controlled via an AI system ensuring unbroken journeys with the passengers able to relax and know the system will get them their one way or another. One could pay a premium for priority service to get somewhere faster by jumping queues at changeover points.

And they wouldn't need to stick to roads either. If it's faster or cheaper to load multiple carriages onto a train, boat or even aircraft, the system will do that too. People would be shuffled around as if the country were one big Amazon warehouse.

It would be much more efficient, safer and, critically, offer the degree of personal comfort people want on long journeys. Cars aren't just for transport, but for storage too.. child car seats, spare clothing, shopping etc... all sorts of things one might need but don't want to have to carry around between journeys as one would if people only used the taxi model. With a personal carriage, everything would be right there, yet when you arrived at your destination, you could take with you only thing things you want on your person. 

Well, I suppose.  But that's a complete change cw the current car manufacture model which is being used by EV.  I suppose there's all sorts of potential innovative stuff that could occur, but I'd bet that for the foreseeable future EV cars will be exactly the same as ICE cars, but with different motive power.

And re. the electrics being 'stuff unplugged from engine on maintenance' -- it isn't just the engine, it's everything.  Stupid displays in the cabin that start having lines on them.  Lights that start going dim.  Alarms on the blink.  Airbag warning lights on.  CD player being a bit crap.  Anyway, these things aren't about 'unplugging during maintenance' as much as 'wires exposed to all sorts of strange vibrations, temperature changes (EV motors and batteries still get hot) damp, etc, etc.  Nothing will change on that front, IMO.

There is, of course, the potential for driverless EV 'taxis', that are otherwise similar to normal cars (but bigger cabins) which will make inroads as soon as they can be trusted -- but this will likely be a slow process of taking over from 'the current way of doing things' rather than the promised revolutionary change -- we're just too wedded to our current lifestyles.

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8 minutes ago, MvR said:

I've said it before, but I think the future is a "horse and carriage" model for Electric Vehicles / personal transport.  Those without much need to travel may hire them as we hire taxis now, but a lot will own the "carriage" part - the passenger compartment - themselves, which is then moved about by an electric chassis paid per use or on a subscription model.

This offers the best of both worlds.  Just as a long journey by horse and carriage might involve changing horses multiple times, so the chassis would be replaced as required with no input from the passenger. 

The carriage offers the level of comfort they prefer, a private space to make their own, with almost no safety critical features. The cheapest may only cost a couple of thousand in today's money, or much more for something luxurious with masses of storage, home comforts and even sleeping areas including a comfy bed with their own duvets.

The chassis, once a journey is ordered via an app, will arrive, drive under the carriage and lock on, before taking the carriage to it's destination. If there is a technical problem, this will be detected and a replacement carriage will arrive and take over, while the faulty one returns to it's depot for repair or simply recharging. All this would be controlled via an AI system ensuring unbroken journeys with the passengers able to relax and know the system will get them there one way or another. One could pay a premium for priority service to get somewhere faster by jumping queues at changeover points.

And they wouldn't need to stick to roads either. If it's faster or cheaper to load multiple carriages onto a train, boat or even aircraft, the system will do that too. People would be shuffled around as if the country were one big Amazon warehouse.

It would be much more efficient, safer and, critically, offer the degree of personal comfort people want on long journeys. Cars aren't just for transport, but for storage too.. child car seats, spare clothing, shopping etc... all sorts of things one might need but don't want to have to carry around between journeys as one would if people only used the taxi model. With a personal carriage, everything would be right there, yet when you arrived at your destination, you could take with you only thing things you want on your person. 

Brilliant idea.

They could also form carriage trains on the motorways, improving aerodynamic efficiency, sharing battery power and minimising congestion. Each carriage would peel off for its exit.

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4 minutes ago, dgul said:

Well, I suppose.  But that's a complete change cw the current car manufacture model which is being used by EV.  I suppose there's all sorts of potential innovative stuff that could occur, but I'd bet that for the foreseeable future EV cars will be exactly the same as ICE cars, but with different motive power.

True.. and probably not investable yet, which is of course the point of this thread..  I think I just got a bit sidetracked there for a moment. 

EDIT:  That said, once the idea starts to take hold. there could be an explosion of innovation regarding ways to move these carriages, and an accompanying speculative bubble similar to the rush to invest in railways when they appeared.

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I thought of you yesterady YRS,we got a £15 off at Tesco if you spend a ton(lot of money I know).But I've worked out,if we max out the two for one deals on all the stuff we can't get at Aldi,we can save maybe 30-40% on the shop-and get it delivered for £1...............................and we poss spend £3 getting to Aldi.My face lit up when Mrs P told me(she knows these things warm my cycnical old heart)

 

Edit to add-Tescos must be desperate for tunrover.The only time we go is when we get vouchers. 

yes the girlfriend has just had 27 quids worth of vouchers for online shoping if she spends 50 quid,ie 10 quid off a 50 pound spend.they must have noticed she hasnt done it for sevral months.might see if the discount includes alchol will just order 4 crates of stella .

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

At least VW are making all the right noises in regards to their EV future, interesting recent partnership with Ford and also their announcements of the I.D. range including a golf sized EV which will be significantly cheaper than the Tesla Model 3. Could easily see the VW Neo replacing the Toyota Prius as taxi of choice worldwide whilst we wait to see what happens with driverless. As for your viewpoint @dgul, I think governments worldwide will "force" owners to make the change through heavy taxation and EV incentives, much of this direction based on the global emissions narrative. Centrica now positioning themselves accordingly:

https://www.centrica.com/centrica-electric-vehicle-services

Centrica have been buying or investing into the world leaders in this space.The reason they bought into the energy blockchain company will be so they can use the tech in EV charging schemes.They are very well placed,yet nobody seems to notice.I just wish they would unload the nuclear power stations so they can then have very low debt.My worry is big oil take them out before we can get the shares to 4x in the next cycle.

Public transport will be a big winner from EV vehicles because more people will be priced out at first.The other big winner is silver.Its one of the reasons i expect the biggest silver bull in history in the next cycle.

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4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

In other wtf news,Savills(International EA's are rallying off lows.) because things are really looking up for Bricks n Mortar EA's relying on Chinese money.

Rightmove and Purplebricks came up on today's stock screener!  I kid you not.  Rejected on a closer look though.  99% of the stocks coming up at the moment are presenting fake buy signals (i.e. each has several positive technicals but one or two not confirming, which usually means they'll roll over).

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8 hours ago, Barnsey said:

anyone hold or have thoughts re: Platinum?

Been holding PHPP.L as part of my PM holdings.  Nice to add some hard assets in addiiton to gold and silver, especially palladium!

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FANGMAN stocks are getting quite brutal, its going to take one hell of a boost to get them going up again IMO. 

Billions of $ of paper wealth up in smoke!

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40 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Even bitcoin dropped below 5000 today

my beloved icq fell by over 40% 2-3 days ago.was very tempted to buy a few if im being honest.

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Even bitcoin dropped below 5000 today

Heading rapidly towards the miners cost, without them doing the transaction donkey work the "decentralised" bitcoin network is toast.  Still going to zero in the long run, the pets.com of the current cycle.

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