Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[leonardratso]

hot diggity, i still got 15 ETC i forgot about, now worth shit all. Boy im glad i got shot of all that turd.

[Talking Monkey]

8 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Heading rapidly towards the miners cost, without them doing the transaction donkey work the "decentralised" bitcoin network is toast.  Still going to zero in the long run, the pets.com of the current cycle.

What is the mining costs Major, when it hits that would there be a rapid drop to zero. I don't understand crypto at all it, couldn't make sense of it. I suppose one of the things that I recall is the old phrase 'don't invest in anything you don't understand'

[leonardratso]

i read some of the white papers for some of the coins, complete bunk most of them, trying to solve a problem that they couldnt define and that didnt really exist or was impossible to solve or was already solved. Absolute ponzi scheme to be honest, its the new dot com init. I made some dosh, i lost some dosh, was a nice lesson in volatility and restraint, overall i think im up, but i kept scalping beer money out of it but it got spent so it didnt make me rich, i was too fearful of the thing to go balls deep, with good reason.

Anyways, i reckon it will do some good jumping up once they sort this BCH fight out, so it might be worth a quick cheeky ton in and then bum out.

[Lightscribe]

Most crypto is pure speculation. Some currencies do have a real world use however on the dark web (BCH, BTC, XMR) and XRP is being pushed somewhat as the bankers coin. I dip in and out and have bought some BTC at the $4.5k mark as that’s a support level. I’ll most likely sell this if/when it retraces above $5k in the next day or so. But the longer term direction looks to be sub $4k.

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

What is the mining costs Major, when it hits that would there be a rapid drop to zero. I don't understand crypto at all it, couldn't make sense of it. I suppose one of the things that I recall is the old phrase 'don't invest in anything you don't understand'

Depends on electricity cost, although under $5k would cause problems for most of the world IIRC.  There are a couple of articles on the web about it.

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Depends on electricity cost, although under $5k would cause problems for most of the world IIRC.  There are a couple of articles on the web about it.

Isn't there a feedback loop that causes mining to become less resource-intensive when hashing power declines? It was supposed to be a self-balancing mechanism afaik.

[invalid]

12 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Isn't there a feedback loop that causes mining to become less resource-intensive when hashing power declines? It was supposed to be a self-balancing mechanism afaik.

Yes, but the trend has always been upwards (as a generalisation). Except for thingd like XMR forks but that was due to algo changes to stop ASICs.

With a large up front capex, it seems most miners will continue to run even if it doesn't cover electric costs, on the hope that prices will go back up.

There will however be a price at which miners will we be losing too much money (perhaps to the point they can't pay the electric bill) and will shut up shop.

I think some of the whales have been slowly selling off but ensuring a level of support for the price, indicating they also run large mining operations, which seems logical to me anyway.

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, null; said:

Yes, but the trend has always been upwards (as a generalisation). Except for thingd like XMR forks but that was due to algo changes to stop ASICs.

With a large up front capex, it seems most miners will continue to run even if it doesn't cover electric costs, on the hope that prices will go back up.

There will however be a price at which miners will we be losing too much money (perhaps to the point they can't pay the electric bill) and will shut up shop.

I think some of the whales have been slowly selling off but ensuring a level of support for the price, indicating they also run large mining operations, which seems logical to me anyway.

Some will be in some very expensive contracts through hired server contracts too, so are tied to cary on mining to try and cover the costs of them. Not sure of the sort of duration of these, depends on whether they have leased the hardware, bought it themselves to be colocated, server centre terms etc etc.

[Majorpain]

1 minute ago, onlyme said:

Some will be in some very expensive contracts through hired server contracts too, so are tied to cary on mining to try and cover the costs of them. Not sure of the sort of duration of these, depends on whether they have leased the hardware, bought it themselves to be colocated, server centre terms etc etc. 

That's insane, renting expensive equipment with massive power requirements to crunch useless numbers for something which has no intrinsic value and could be worthless in 6 months!  This is why we need a debt deflation, clear out this mal investment so we can get back to making things people actually need and want.

[onlyme]

2 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

That's insane, renting expensive equipment with massive power requirements to crunch useless numbers for something which has no intrinsic value and could be worthless in 6 months!  This is why we need a debt deflation, clear out this mal investment so we can get back to making things people actually need and want.

Should have dug more when I met a real life miner, money made on BTL, sunk £2m into server centre in Iceland so presume had bought and colocated hardware.

[kibuc]

44 minutes ago, null; said:

There will however be a price at which miners will we be losing too much money (perhaps to the point they can't pay the electric bill) and will shut up shop.

I think some of the whales have been slowly selling off but ensuring a level of support for the price, indicating they also run large mining operations, which seems logical to me anyway.

Interesting to see how it will affect the GPU market. Demand for new cards from mining pools drying up is one thing and it's putting downward pressure on prices, but once they all start actively selling off that's when the second-hand market will become a place to avoid. I for one wouldn't want to inadvertently end up with a run-to-the-ground ex-mining GPU no matter the price point. I wonder whether it could paradoxically lift up the prices of brand-new cards as people seek security of a proper warranty.

[invalid]

33 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Interesting to see how it will affect the GPU market. Demand for new cards from mining pools drying up is one thing and it's putting downward pressure on prices, but once they all start actively selling off that's when the second-hand market will become a place to avoid. I for one wouldn't want to inadvertently end up with a run-to-the-ground ex-mining GPU no matter the price point. I wonder whether it could paradoxically lift up the prices of brand-new cards as people seek security of a proper warranty.

Not sure, some of the small hobby miners will probably continue even at a loss as they are doing it more for the fun(?) of it and to support the network. I would expet larger scale GPU miners to selling be off their kit now (I know plenty have already sold out) while the prices are still high.

Certainly at some point the is going to be a huge bulge in the pipline of cards moving down into the second hand market as miners either upgrade or just give up and sell the kit.

I agree with you on prices of new cards, driven up by miners having to upgrade and gamers not wanting to buy a card that has a hard life.

[DoINeedOne]

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 298.85p 9.85 (-3.19%)

[Barnsey]

13 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Royal Mail Plc

LONDON: RMG.L (GBp)

 298.85p 9.85 (-3.19%)

I bought my first tranche at 319p, hesitant to pick up any more in the near future until it forms some kind of stable base.

[azzuri82]

6 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

What is the mining costs Major, when it hits that would there be a rapid drop to zero. I don't understand crypto at all it, couldn't make sense of it. I suppose one of the things that I recall is the old phrase 'don't invest in anything you don't understand'

Buffett won't touch it for the same reason.

[Barnsey]

I think there's some kind of hope for the biggest cryptos in the ashes of what's to play out should any of them survive, starting to read of relatively "level-headed" hedge fund managers starting to look into crypto investment funds etc, if bitcoin hits $200 i'll probably pick up a few as a gamble, but wouldn't touch it until that point.

[invalid]

Just now, Barnsey said:

I think there's some kind of hope for the biggest cryptos in the ashes of what's to play out should any of them survive, starting to read of relatively "level-headed" hedge fund managers starting to look into crypto investment funds etc, if bitcoin hits $200 i'll probably pick up a few as a gamble, but wouldn't touch it until that point.

I don't think its ever going to go away, the genie is out of the bottle.

In what form, use or value it will be - I have no idea.

What is needed is for the shitcoins to die off (probably around 95% of the coins), hopefully the falling price will bring this about.

[MvR]

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Interesting to see how it will affect the GPU market. 

Brutally, if Nvidia are anything to go by. With Bitcoin crashing, computers being replaced by tablets and smartphones for many users, and Apple and the console makers able to produce their own graphics hardware, the market for dedicated 3rd party graphics cards looks shaky to me.. I must admit I don't really know the gamer market, not being a gamer myself.  Then there's VR off course.. that's something that would attract me in a few years once the technology improves to the point of offering the very best of today's graphics at resolutions to match my eyesight at at least 60fps.  

As a side note,  the fall of Bitcoin could bode well for gold, as it regains it's prominence as favoured safe-haven currency hedge.

[Cosmic]

19 minutes ago, MvR said:

and Apple and the console makers able to produce their own graphics hardware, the market for dedicated 3rd party graphics cards looks shaky to me..

They do what now? PS4 uses a AMD Radeon chip. MacBook Pro uses a AMD Radeon also. XBOX One... is probably in partnership with AMD seen as the CPU is AMD. Just a small sample... which all happen to be AMD rather than Nvidia... Oops

Nvid/AMD are not going to be replaced on the GPU front any time soon, but Nvid especially has been riding crypto... that horse is about to die imho, but it won't lead to the death of Nvidia, they have chips in a LOT of devices.

 

[leonardratso]

theyve had their chips.

[MvR]

6 minutes ago, Cosmic Apple said:

They do what now? PS4 uses a AMD Radeon chip. MacBook Pro uses a AMD Radeon also. XBOX One... is probably in partnership with AMD seen as the CPU is AMD. Just a small sample... which all happen to be AMD rather than Nvidia... Oops

Nvid/AMD are not going to be replaced on the GPU front any time soon, but Nvid especially has been riding crypto... that horse is about to die imho, but it won't lead to the death of Nvidia, they have chips in a LOT of devices.

Ahh. fair enough.. I stand corrected.  My understanding, from articles like this, was Apple were moving to develop their own GPUs  ( or buy out a GPU manufacturer ).  

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/3/15158982/apple-iphone-gpu-imagination-powervr

 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

I bought my first tranche at 319p, hesitant to pick up any more in the near future until it forms some kind of stable base.

I tend to ladder at 8% on larger companies.Iv got a bottom ladder price on them of £2.28.I only got two ladders into BT as the 2nd one caught the bottom to within 0.2% and with a 23% increase including the divi iv offloaded most of them today.I dont tend to take profits on any as i re-position my portfolio,but iv started to ladder into two gambling companies (Playtech and Hills).Iv set 6% ladders on those,but 5 ladder points down.Those are only 1/4 sized holdings when/if full compared to the other bigger companies im slowly adding.

[Cosmic]

6 minutes ago, MvR said:

Ahh. fair enough.. I stand corrected.  My understanding, from articles like this, was Apple were moving to develop their own GPUs  ( or buy out a GPU manufacturer ).  

https://www.theverge.com/2017/4/3/15158982/apple-iphone-gpu-imagination-powervr

 

Mobile markets not a huge one for Nvida afaik. There are loads of players in that arena.

Incidentally GPU computing does have applications beyond crypto, but the volume is much lower.

[onlyme]

Crapple not doing very well down 4%.

I'll not be buying another Apple product for their deplatforming alone.

Nvidia's future might be AI/car automation more than video cards, but many mores yet before volume / income. Race into crypto did them a lot of reputitional damage and pissed off a lot of gamers.

[MrXxx]

9 hours ago, Majorpain said:

That's insane, renting expensive equipment with massive power requirements to crunch useless numbers for something which has no intrinsic value and could be worthless in 6 months!  This is why we need a debt deflation, clear out this mal investment so we can get back to making things people actually need and want.

So that's the BoE printing presses ` out of the way`, but let's get back to discussing crypto!