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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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5 hours ago, onlyme said:

Crapple not doing very well down 4%.

I'll not be buying another Apple product for their deplatforming alone.

Nvidia's future might be AI/car automation more than video cards, but many mores yet before volume / income. Race into crypto did them a lot of reputitional damage and pissed off a lot of gamers.

Nope.

Nvidia future is designing massively parallel multi core cpus and the interchange.

At the moment, tge action is in gpus.

Theres no reason why the cores wont become more complex.

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22 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

this guys full of hot gas;

 

I mean...

"... I am really sorry... I dint see the rogue wave this week... "

"...I've tried ... reaaaalllly hard... I've  watched the roulette spinning ... I did watch the roulette very closely..."

"... but another number came up instead of  'number 7 red' ... i am really sorry... because... I couldn't navigate this rogue wave of the roulette game..."

I maybe wrong but  sounds like what they say on the "The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) - IMDb"...

(bitter today :PissedOff:)

 

M.C.

 

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5 minutes ago, M.C. UK said:

I mean...

"... I am really sorry... I dint see the rogue wave this week... "

"...I've tried ... reaaaalllly hard... I've  watched the roulette spinning ... I did watch the roulette very closely..."

"... but another number came up instead of  'number 7 red' ... i am really sorry... because... I couldn't navigate this rogue wave of the roulette game..."

I maybe wrong but  sounds like what they say on the "The Wolf of Wall Street (2013) - IMDb"...

(bitter today :PissedOff:)

 

M.C.

 

hahaha, think 294 clients, minimum $500K to get blown by this wine quaffing rogue wave dodging fakester, at least in the past youd be left with your snake oil (or crappy monorail), here his customers lose all their money and then get a bill for the rest of the unclosed short. Would you trust this reptile with your hair transplant, man i doubt id even buy a ginger wig off him down the market.

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On 20/11/2018 at 10:45, onlyme said:

Some will be in some very expensive contracts through hired server contracts too, so are tied to cary on mining to try and cover the costs of them. Not sure of the sort of duration of these, depends on whether they have leased the hardware, bought it themselves to be colocated, server centre terms etc etc.

I struggle to understand Bitcoin(I recently learned how to screenshot off Investing.com),but it jsut seems like utter madness

On 20/11/2018 at 10:50, Majorpain said:

That's insane, renting expensive equipment with massive power requirements to crunch useless numbers for something which has no intrinsic value and could be worthless in 6 months!  This is why we need a debt deflation, clear out this mal investment so we can get back to making things people actually need and want.

And there's the economics of what they're doing-again,I don't udnerstand it but when a long term poster makes the above comment,it tells me to stay well clear

22 hours ago, Cosmic Apple said:

They do what now? PS4 uses a AMD Radeon chip. MacBook Pro uses a AMD Radeon also. XBOX One... is probably in partnership with AMD seen as the CPU is AMD. Just a small sample... which all happen to be AMD rather than Nvidia... Oops :)

Nvid/AMD are not going to be replaced on the GPU front any time soon, but Nvid especially has been riding crypto... that horse is about to die imho, but it won't lead to the death of Nvidia, they have chips in a LOT of devices.

 

I presume the bit in bold is what the non techies shoudl take from your post?

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Wolf Podcast-bullet points mine

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/18/the-wolf-street-report-market-exuberance-ends-pain-starts/

Consumers/businesses spent and boomed post Trump election-Trump bump effects petering out.

Effects of trump Bump reversing across board at different paces eg Fangman stocks

Hosuing boomed especialy where Trump wasn't popular-that has now ended

Housing market deteriorating-inventories up,price reductions up,liquidity good but sellers need to be realistic.

Oil&Gas boom created massive bust but got bailed out by Wall St money.Recent oil drop has caused major problems for them

Trump Bump never happened to bonds-slowest rate hike cycle ever,may well last another year,no shock n awe campaign but slow so that markets didn't blow.

Fed policy led to EM bond yields surging.

Retails sales is facing their reckoning

Conclusions

1) oil price drop going to have large impact on overall demand

2)Inventories moving up as companies front fun tariffs but that will poeter out

3) buying big ticket items eg car/hosue getting harder due to rising rates-monthly payments shock

4) reduction of tax breaks for homeowners will impact demand

5)payroll tax cuts will no longer boost demand 2019

6) consumers will have to redirect money from buying goods to paying interest reducing demand

7) corporate sector overleveraged will struggle with higher rates,lot of companies will go bankrupt

 

any major sell off will be met by dip buying due to liquidity sat on sidelines.Markets will zigzag lower little by little.Hosuing markets going down slowly and won't scare fed into changing policy direction,reducing asset values gradually.

 

Unless something big break sin 2019 then it'll be slow economic growth and marekts dribbling down.

 

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53 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I presume the bit in bold is what the non techies shoudl take from your post?

Yeah. Imho of course, Nvidia will be fine without crypto, just at a lower level than now.

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Picture paints etc

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/20/subprime-rises-credit-card-delinquencies-spike-past-financial-crisis-peak-at-smaller-banks/

US-consumer-credit-card-delinquency-2018

With credit cards, the US banking system has split in two.

The largest banks can offer the most attractive incentives on their credit cards (cash-back, miles, etc.) and thus attract the largest pool of applicants. Then they can reject those with higher credit risks – having not yet forgotten the lesson from the last debacle.

The thousands of smaller banks cannot offer the same incentives and lack the marketing clout to attract this large pool of customers with good credit. So they market to customers with less stellar credit, or with subprime-rated credit — and charge higher interest rates. 30% sounds like a deal, even if the customer will eventually buckle under that interest rate and will have to default.

US-consumer-credit-cards-2018-Q3.png

Since the prior peak of credit-card debt in 2008, the US population has grown by 20 million people, and there has been a decade of inflation and nominal wage increases, and so the overall credit card burden per capita is far lower today than it was in 2008 (though student loans and auto loans have shot through the roof). So no problem?

But this overall data hides the extent to which the most vulnerable consumers are getting into trouble with their credit cards, having borrowed too much at usurious rates. They’ll never be able to pay off or even just service those balances. For them, there is only one way out – to default.'

 

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

Wrong thread.

Sorry Harley I forgot to put the :-)...it was meant to be flippant, especially as by my own admission I am pretty clueless about crypto...so, let's get back to discussing gold...oh no, we have another thread about that in `investing` (sarcasm!) :-)..as you were gentlemen! :-)

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Democorruptcy
On 20/11/2018 at 13:51, DurhamBorn said:

I tend to ladder at 8% on larger companies.Iv got a bottom ladder price on them of £2.28.I only got two ladders into BT as the 2nd one caught the bottom to within 0.2% and with a 23% increase including the divi iv offloaded most of them today.I dont tend to take profits on any as i re-position my portfolio,but iv started to ladder into two gambling companies (Playtech and Hills).Iv set 6% ladders on those,but 5 ladder points down.Those are only 1/4 sized holdings when/if full compared to the other bigger companies im slowly adding.

There's definitely a few quid in gambling:

 

Quote

 

The UK's best-paid boss, co-founder of online gambling firm Bet365 Denise Coates, has received another bumper pay rise.

The firm's accounts show compensation, for the firm's "highest paid director" rising to £265m including dividends.

That was £48m higher than the total she received last year as the popularity of online gambling continues to grow.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46289499


 

 

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Sorry Harley I forgot to put the :-)...it was meant to be flippant, especially as by my own admission I am pretty clueless about crypto...so, let's get back to discussing gold...oh no, we have another thread about that in `investing` (sarcasm!) :-)..as you were gentlemen! :-)

Catching a bid today

image.thumb.png.ebedbbc5f45aad550c83dd5d2f9904b8.png

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Catching a bid today

image.thumb.png.ebedbbc5f45aad550c83dd5d2f9904b8.png

:-) :-) :-)...you know that sick feeling when you say to yourself "i must get around to doing that", you never do and then something happens...thanks SP, I am now kicking myself even harder!

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

:-) :-) :-)...you know that sick feeling when you say to yourself "i must get around to doing that", you never do and then something happens...thanks SP, I am now kicking myself even harder!

There's still plenty of value in there.And to be fair,another rough few days and they might be back down.I've been dithering myself of late.

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stick yourselves on the fantasy 2018 spreadsheet and see what you would have won/lost had you taken the plunge for real.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lggMOk7ZJd0TkFQamiN_jWgyhnJ3kLuJ2BhmjFmbVwY/edit#gid=1662780564

or open a  new sheet on there.

 

FANTASY INVESTOR 2018 DOSBODS
            21/11/2018 usd/gdp 03/11/2018 : 0.7703   usd/gbp now : 0.7828
                cad/gdp 03/11/2018 : 0.5883   cad/gbp now : 0.5914
UID Invested in p/unit NAV @03/11/2018 p/unit NAV now Profit/Loss pence Profit/Loss
Percent(%)
Total P/L
(%) per UID
Notes          
spunko ETH/GBP 15,398.00 10,635.97 -4,762.03 -30.93% -30.93% gb pence          
stokiescum lon:gaw 3,230.00 2,808.18 -421.82 -13.06%   gb pence          
  lon:iqe 96.30 61.25 -35.05 -36.40%   gb pence          
  lon:vod 150.52 158.04 7.52 5.00%   gb pence          
  lon:bp 533.30 530.70 -2.60 -0.49% -11.27% gb pence          
castlevania lon:shg 4.32 4.31 -0.01 -0.23% -0.23% gb pence          
kibuc tse:wdo 237.67 217.64 -20.04 -8.43% -8.43%
ca cents->gb pence
         
nicolas turgeon nysearca:udn 1,631.50 1,654.84 23.34 1.43%  
us cents->gb pence
         
  nysearca:gdxj 2,161.46 2,199.67 38.21 1.77% 1.62%
us cents->gb pence
         
sound money BTC/GBP 489,806.17 356,092.91 -133,713.26 -27.30%   gb pence          
  nyse:auy 181.79 170.65 -11.14 -6.13% -27.29%
us cents->gb pence
         
ponty mython lon:infa 0.51 0.68 0.17 33.33%   gb pence          
  tse:tgz 207.67 200.48 -7.19 -3.46% -3.37%
ca cents->gb pence
         
doineedone XRP/GBP 35.74 34.82 -0.92 -2.57%   gb pence          
  spot gold 1oz 95,178.27 96,198.29 1,020.02 1.07% 1.07%
us cents->gb pence
         
sancho panza lon:cna 145.10 145.82 0.72 0.50%   gb pence          
  lon:vod 150.52 158.04 7.52 5.00% 2.79% gb pence          
green devil TRX/GBP 1.81 1.13 -0.68 -37.57%   gb pence          
  EOS/GBP 422.02 295.78 -126.24 -29.91%   gb pence          
  ETH/GBP 15,398.00 10,635.97 -4,762.03 -30.93% -30.90% gb pence          
janch nasdaq:fb 11,370.40 10,553.71 -816.69 -7.18%  
us cents->gb pence
         
  nasdaq:amzn 123,685.53 118,729.62 -4,955.91 -4.01%  
us cents->gb pence
         
  nasdaq:aapl 15,460.69 13,838.34 -1,622.35 -10.49%  
us cents->gb pence
         
  nasdaq:nflx 23,641.28 20,519.54 -3,121.74 -13.20%  
us cents->gb pence
         
  nasdaq:goog 78,753.93 81,224.11 2,470.18 3.14% -3.18%
us cents->gb pence
         
lavalas tse:wdo 237.67 217.64 -20.04 -8.43%  
ca cents->gb pence
         
  cve:gtt 108.25 60.91 -47.33 -43.73%  
ca cents->gb pence
         
  indexsp:.inx 210,009.20 207,436.52 -2,572.68 -1.23% -1.26%
us cents->gb pence
         
dgul lon:aca 158.65 190.52 31.87 20.09% 20.09% gb pence          
malthus lon:lnga 2,532.75 3,762.92 1,230.17 48.57% 48.57%
us cents->gb pence
         
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Democorruptcy
12 minutes ago, A_P said:

Well that sucks. I literally just increased my position in CNA the other day xD

Well it's only a loss on paper unless you sell, not like backing an horse that's finished down the field :)

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23 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Think i'll be picking up some more tomorrow, fundamentals still looking strong, these smaller "challenger" suppliers are continuing to go bust, lost count of how many so far.

Also worth thinking about are the new much stricter Ofgem regulations for new suppliers to be granted a licence coming into force next spring. I think Centrica can afford to take a step back for now as more small suppliers go under, especially as there are currently more than 3 million customers in the UK in energy debt (growing rapidly by the day) which the smaller companies simply can't handle.

12p Centrica dividend commitment maintained in today's results.

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17 minutes ago, A_P said:

Well that sucks. I literally just increased my position in CNA the other day xD

We're probably in at an average of £1-65/£1-70(can't be bothered knowing the exact price as it affects your psychology imho).We've certificated the lot and are taking scrip.

Reading between the lines this is more of the same as last year,losing the lower end of the market and gaining the higher end.

Good appraisal in the FT.Lost 372,000 customers mainly on standard variable tariff that govt will cap,gained 280,000 Connected Home a/cs(probably what might be referred to as premium a/cs)

Debt is still too high given they're carrying nearly £4.2bn in goodwill/intangibles but I suspect their finance rates are as cheap as you can get.

https://www.centrica.com/about-us/what-we-do/centrica-hive

'Centrica is a market leader in Connected Home products, and our Hive smart thermostat and other services help our customers manage their energy use in the UK, Ireland and North America.'

https://www.ft.com/content/f456bb78-ee2a-11e8-89c8-d36339d835c0

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5 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Think i'll be picking up some more tomorrow, fundamentals still looking strong, these smaller "challenger" suppliers are continuing to go bust, lost count of how many so far.

Also worth thinking about are the new much stricter Ofgem regulations for new suppliers to be granted a licence coming into force next spring. I think Centrica can afford to take a step back for now as more small suppliers go under, especially as there are currently more than 3 million customers in the UK in energy debt (growing rapidly by the day) which the smaller companies simply can't handle.

12p Centrica dividend commitment maintained in today's results.

Ditto.

Excellent point in bold barnsey.There's so little value in the market,I might consdier lifitng my ceiling on this one.

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