Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, A_P said:

I've received an invite but for some reason they have only developed an apple app so far. Android not coming for a few months I believe

I was on that long mad queue (waiting behind more than 40k people :o ) then, for my surprise, yesterday I've got invited to "join the club and start trading" :o:o:o:o

I am very suprised indeed...  but for now they are indeed very limited  on shares (UK only and not everything) - lots of future expantion on their road map - just went on their site to check since i was in the queue for so long i even forgotten about them xD

They "seem" very competitive, even on the "instant transactions" that are not free - £1 it seems

(Hummm , on second thoughts.... sorry , maybe  I should had posted the above in a different thread  O.o)

M.C.

 

p.s. i am not promoting and deffo not affiliated with them - just curious realy (why i signed for it and maybe soon will dip my toes)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, dgul said:

Edinburgh to Fife is called 'crossing the bridge'.  Surely there's more to it?

eds -- no, that's what they're doing.  I suppose it's a start...

I'll be eagerly waiting for one to bump into a tram during testing so that I can pick up some more LON:SGC on the cheap xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I have never directly bought or sold anything on the stock market ever.

Watched all of that, and understood it up until he lost me about 2 minutes before the end. 

Sounds simple. When it goes down as far as its moving average you buy it. Isn't that the so-called BTFD which I heard of? 

Also when it drops in price down to your pre-calculated level it hits your Stop Loss and you sell it. So the increase in price is always greater than the decrease in price (from your point of view.) 

Hard to believe things are genuinely that simple. If it were true then everyone would always make money. 

Sounds to me like a simple strategy which works 97% of the time but goes wrong for unforeseeable reasons the other 3% and you get rinsed. For example what if it suddenly plunges drastically your stop loss doesn't work because everyone else is stop lossing at the same time. 

I haven't watched the vid,but using moving averages can lead to huge  whipsaw losses over the years.

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Just read a bit of good news re: my Flybe gamble, now Virgin Atlantic have entered talks along with Stobart, fingers crossed Flybe don't get too greedy again. Looking forward to seeing the reaction tomorrow.

https://news.sky.com/story/virgin-atlantic-in-surprise-bid-to-take-off-with-flybe-11560548

'Sources said the transatlantic airline was pursuing an interest in Flybe because of the opportunities a tie-up would provide to feed passenger traffic into Virgin Atlantic's long-haul network, as well as its access to valuable take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport which are ring-fenced for domestic flights.

 

The two carriers already operate a code-share pact aimed at improving access to Virgin Atlantic's long-haul routes for regional customers using the regional airline's flights into Heathrow and Manchester.'

 

Makes a lot of sense,As I've said with my regular trips on Flybe,I really liked them.

2 hours ago, dgul said:

Indeed.

IMO the main problem with the guy's presentation was that it seems to assume that he's the clever one amongst a sea of mug punters, whereas in reality all the mug punters combined make up only a tiny %age of trades, with most being made by professionals.  I'd also suggest that a decent %age of the mug punters are using TA, and the pros take advantage of this, either by front-running trades (because they're faster) or just manipulating the market to take out stop-losses etc (because they really know the order book).  I find the potential for the  simple TA beating the pros being hard to swallow.

I think the trick to beating the big money men is to find the timeframes they're working within and then work somewhere else.Reality is that many funds are judged QoQ or YoY,hence my invesments -away from short term trading- are all multi year projects.I'm currently down on my goldies and CNA but it's part of a multi year strategy,that has some room for significant downside .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, Funn3r said:

I have never directly bought or sold anything on the stock market ever.

Watched all of that, and understood it up until he lost me about 2 minutes before the end. 

Sounds simple. When it goes down as far as its moving average you buy it. Isn't that the so-called BTFD which I heard of? 

Also when it drops in price down to your pre-calculated level it hits your Stop Loss and you sell it. So the increase in price is always greater than the decrease in price (from your point of view.) 

Hard to believe things are genuinely that simple. If it were true then everyone would always make money. 

Sounds to me like a simple strategy which works 97% of the time but goes wrong for unforeseeable reasons the other 3% and you get rinsed. For example what if it suddenly plunges drastically your stop loss doesn't work because everyone else is stop lossing at the same time. 

I too watched the video, and actually understood it...surely it can't be that simple, so what are other more experienced posters views?...I am always suspicious of the `this is the secret to how I make millions` videos as if I had such a secret I wouldn't be sharing it with you guys!

F3r you make the point about SL, but I thought they kicked in straight away hence the point of using them, am I mistaken?

Also a later post mentions TA, what's that?

Thanks as always for replies/answers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
14 hours ago, Funn3r said:

Sounds simple. When it goes down as far as its moving average you buy it. Isn't that the so-called BTFD which I heard of? 

Still need to be careful. Look at the PE ratios too...if they are too high, it may be reverting back to a much longer than 200 day average. Going under the average 3 times is usually considered a bad sign... NASDAQ  right now is interesting for that reason. 

20 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

.I am always suspicious of the `this is the secret to how I make millions` videos as if I had such a secret I wouldn't be sharing it with you guys!

That's why I hate the rich dad, poor dad book. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

I too watched the video, and actually understood it...surely it can't be that simple, so what are other more experienced posters views?...I am always suspicious of the `this is the secret to how I make millions` videos as if I had such a secret I wouldn't be sharing it with you guys!

F3r you make the point about SL, but I thought they kicked in straight away hence the point of using them, am I mistaken?

Also a later post mentions TA, what's that?

Thanks as always for replies/answers.

TA = technical analysis = the process of looking at the way the price has been moving to predict the future price (including all these little oscillations).  It is the opposite of fundamental analysis, the process of looking at what's happening in the real world to predict the future price.

The thing is, every man and his dog is using TA, which means that it isn't going to be as simple as the guy claims.  What's more, the gains have to come from somewhere -- it isn't magic money, but comes from another's loss.  My take on TA is that the 'other's loss' is usually my loss because there are clever people out there with more control of the market that'll manipulate things better than I can read them (or something like that). 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, dgul said:

My take on TA is that the 'other's loss' is usually my loss because there are clever people out there with more control of the market that'll manipulate things better than I can read them (or something like that). 

Wise words @dgul especially these days with algo trading, which is why I just buy "Buffett" style and look at the long term

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Still need to be careful. Look at the PE ratios too...if they are too high, it may be reverting back to a much longer than 200 day average. Going under the average 3 times is usually considered a bad sign... NASDAQ  right now is interesting for that reason. 

That's why I hate the rich dad, poor dad book. 

I've not read the book but heard it being mentioned a few times. Is it not geared around a way of thinking and behaving versus a get rich quick scheme? I can certainly relate to the poor dad as having a father who even though has had a decent renumeration package at least since the mid 90's never had/s any money :wanker:. There's no changing his behaviour, even now as someone nearing his 60's he is still a lost cause.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

UnconventionalWisdom
7 minutes ago, A_P said:

I've not read the book but heard it being mentioned a few times. Is it not geared around a way of thinking and behaving versus a get rich quick scheme? I can certainly relate to the poor dad as having a father who even though has had a decent renumeration package at least since the mid 90's never had/s any money :wanker:. There's no changing his behaviour, even now as someone nearing his 60's he is still a lost cause.

I like that it tell you to think about your finances. Too many people don't, and it's detrimental, especially long term. But to talk about assets and liabilities, he uses houses generating rent as an asset. This has subsequently meant people reading it have read one book and think houses are the way to go. They will get burned when market conditions change, but the book doesn't mention that. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

34 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I like that it tell you to think about your finances. Too many people don't, and it's detrimental, especially long term. But to talk about assets and liabilities, he uses houses generating rent as an asset. This has subsequently meant people reading it have read one book and think houses are the way to go. They will get burned when market conditions change, but the book doesn't mention that.  

Its important to be flexible as possible IMO, the one thing this thread taught me is that everything is in a cycle that will change eventually, so what's worked for the last 10 years may be the worst thing to do for the next 10.  BTFD is a good example for US stocks at the minute!  Its too easy to get lazy and think the good (and bad) times will roll forever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

I like that it tell you to think about your finances. Too many people don't, and it's detrimental, especially long term. But to talk about assets and liabilities, he uses houses generating rent as an asset. This has subsequently meant people reading it have read one book and think houses are the way to go. They will get burned when market conditions change, but the book doesn't mention that. 

Some good friends of ours have done exactly this. They've just had a baby and have extracted equity from their own 2-bed flat (in addition to a BTL mortgage) to buy another 1-bed flat in the same area for £125k (which will likely rent for £600-650pm) at what I think will prove to be the top of the market.

They are lovely people, but although a talented tradesman, new 'rich dad, poor dad' isn't the brightest, and was telling me at lunch a month ago about this plan and I urged them both to have a rethink. I spoke to them about negative equity, problems re-mortgaging, brexit, possible downturns etc. and although they clearly respect me and my opinion on things, this shitrag of a book appears to be their new bible on life and financial decisions. God help them.

Still though, the book encouraged them to take the bus rather than drive everywhere, a theory that might well save them a few quid over 20 years, but I'm fully of the belief that although the little financial decisions are important, it's the big ones that'll ultimately chart the overall financial well-being of your life.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, azzuri82 said:

They are lovely people, but although a talented tradesman, new 'rich dad, poor dad' was telling me at lunch a month ago about this plan and I urged them both to have a rethink. I spoke to them about negative equity, problems re-mortgaging, brexit, possible downturns etc. and although they clearly respect me and my opinion on things, this shitrag of a book appears to be their new bible on life and financial decisions. God help them. 

My cousin has had a flat bought for her in a nice area of Newcastle, however back in 1920 odd my great grandparents in their 20's could afford to buy one of the entire houses on that street!  She lives in the attic which used to be for the live in maid!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, azzuri82 said:

They are lovely people, but although a talented tradesman, new 'rich dad, poor dad' was telling me at lunch a month ago about this plan and I urged them both to have a rethink. I spoke to them about negative equity, problems re-mortgaging, brexit, possible downturns etc. and although they clearly respect me and my opinion on things, this shitrag of a book appears to be their new bible on life and financial decisions. God help them.

One of the methods of manipulation is to inoculate individuals with the bourgeois appetite for personal success.

Paulo Freire

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, dgul said:

TA = technical analysis = the process of looking at the way the price has been moving to predict the future price (including all these little oscillations).  It is the opposite of fundamental analysis, the process of looking at what's happening in the real world to predict the future price.

The thing is, every man and his dog is using TA, which means that it isn't going to be as simple as the guy claims.  What's more, the gains have to come from somewhere -- it isn't magic money, but comes from another's loss.  My take on TA is that the 'other's loss' is usually my loss because there are clever people out there with more control of the market that'll manipulate things better than I can read them (or something like that). 

Funnily enough, I've just had an 'anti-TA' trick (IMO) done on a stock I own.  The thing just bounces around day in day out with a .25% - .5% oscillation -- the spreads a bit big but you could see how you could make money on the oscillation.  Then, today, bam -- down 2.5% or so.  Instantly.  Gapped down.  All those stop-losses wouldn't have had time to react -- it would be sale at 2.5% down (not the lovely 'can't lose' .25%).  Then, 15 minutes later, it starts to recover.  45 minutes later it's pretty much back to the starting price.  Oh, there's talk of 'big trade exiting' or some such -- but big trades don't work that way -- they're set up and then slowly take up the small trades until they're exhausted -- this was a sting operation on the TA guys. Or maybe it isn't -- but it'll have had the same effect...  I'm in on the fundamentals, so doesn't bother me (I do have stop-losses, but they're further away than that -- after being burnt a few times by this sort of trick).  (I actually had a top-up set up for just this sort of thing, but it didn't quite go low enough -- pretty typical for me...).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, MrXxx said:

I too watched the video, and actually understood it...surely it can't be that simple, so what are other more experienced posters views?...I am always suspicious of the `this is the secret to how I make millions` videos as if I had such a secret I wouldn't be sharing it with you guys!

F3r you make the point about SL, but I thought they kicked in straight away hence the point of using them, am I mistaken?

Also a later post mentions TA, what's that?

Thanks as always for replies/answers.

TA=Technical analysis-charts

For any moving average strategy to work you need prolonged movements above and below your MA's.

To me,for any strategy to work,you need to have a good grasp of the fundamentals and then use that to select which shares to apply TA to.Just my views.

take HSBC.Welcome to whipsaw world using a 50 week MA.

image.thumb.png.2e6ff9308f60064ca53ac6356a7037c8.png

image.thumb.png.f3d53f05420ae0b957b59c21dc6073c2.pngWhereas with Apple,you might have made money

 

47 minutes ago, dgul said:

Funnily enough, I've just had an 'anti-TA' trick (IMO) done on a stock I own.  The thing just bounces around day in day out with a .25% - .5% oscillation -- the spreads a bit big but you could see how you could make money on the oscillation.  Then, today, bam -- down 2.5% or so.  Instantly.  Gapped down.  All those stop-losses wouldn't have had time to react -- it would be sale at 2.5% down (not the lovely 'can't lose' .25%).  Then, 15 minutes later, it starts to recover.  45 minutes later it's pretty much back to the starting price.  Oh, there's talk of 'big trade exiting' or some such -- but big trades don't work that way -- they're set up and then slowly take up the small trades until they're exhausted -- this was a sting operation on the TA guys. Or maybe it isn't -- but it'll have had the same effect...  I'm in on the fundamentals, so doesn't bother me (I do have stop-losses, but they're further away than that -- after being burnt a few times by this sort of trick).  (I actually had a top-up set up for just this sort of thing, but it didn't quite go low enough -- pretty typical for me...).

It most likely was.Depends on the stock and the whether your oppo can sell enough to move it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, dgul said:

TA = technical analysis = the process of looking at the way the price has been moving to predict the future price (including all these little oscillations).  It is the opposite of fundamental analysis, the process of looking at what's happening in the real world to predict the future price.

The thing is, every man and his dog is using TA, which means that it isn't going to be as simple as the guy claims.  What's more, the gains have to come from somewhere -- it isn't magic money, but comes from another's loss.  My take on TA is that the 'other's loss' is usually my loss because there are clever people out there with more control of the market that'll manipulate things better than I can read them (or something like that). 

1) Yep.

2) Personally, I think the only way the small guys can beat the big guys is using the right timeframes

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, azzuri82 said:

Some good friends of ours have done exactly this. They've just had a baby and have extracted equity from their own 2-bed flat (in addition to a BTL mortgage) to buy another 1-bed flat in the same area for £125k (which will likely rent for £600-650pm) at what I think will prove to be the top of the market.

They are lovely people, but although a talented tradesman, new 'rich dad, poor dad' isn't the brightest, and was telling me at lunch a month ago about this plan and I urged them both to have a rethink. I spoke to them about negative equity, problems re-mortgaging, brexit, possible downturns etc. and although they clearly respect me and my opinion on things, this shitrag of a book appears to be their new bible on life and financial decisions. God help them.

Still though, the book encouraged them to take the bus rather than drive everywhere, a theory that might well save them a few quid over 20 years, but I'm fully of the belief that although the little financial decisions are important, it's the big ones that'll ultimately chart the overall financial well-being of your life.

Penny wise,pound stoopid.Like me.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/22/list-of-438-stocks-on-nyse-plunged-40-94-from-52-week-highs/

438 Stocks on the NYSE Have Already Plunged 40%-94% from 52-Week Highs

by Wolf Richter • Nov 22, 2018 • 7 Comments

Bloodletting beneath the surface. Big names too. Here they are.

It’s barely a correction, technically speaking, with the S&P 500 down 9.9% from its all-time closing high, the Dow down 9.2%, the Nasdaq down 14%, and the Russell 2000 small-caps index down 15%. But beneath the surface, there has been some serious bloodletting for many stocks.

For example, 438 stocks among the 2,051 or so stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) have plunged between 40% and 94% from their 52-week highs.

This does not include any stocks traded on the Nasdaq. They have their own blacklist.

Those 438 plungers on the NYSE include a bunch of foreign companies trading on the NYSE (some are trading as ADRs). They include lots of companies in the oil-and-gas sector, homebuilders, gold miners, retailers, aluminum and steel makers, a weed company (other NYSE-listed weed companies are only down 30% to 40% and didn’t make this blacklist), financial services firms and banks, including some of the biggest in the world.

Here is a brief rundown. Below is the complete list. Note that some of these stocks – such as GE, which is also on this blacklist – have plunged far more from their all-time highs established in prior years.

6 stocks have plunged 90% or more from their 52-week highs. This includes number 1, Parker Drilling down 93.6%.

11 stocks have plunged between 80% and 90% from their 52-week highs. This includes a bunch companies in the shale-oil space, retail-technology provider Diebold Nixdorf, and addiction rehab provider AAC.

26 stocks have plunged between 70% and 80% from their 52-week highs. This includes meal-kit highflier and former unicorn Blue Apron and 2-day-miracle super-duper unicorn Snapchat parent Snap that had soared to $30 billion in market cap on day two after its IPO (to $29.30 a share). It’s now at $6.35, down 78.3% from its all-time high and down 70.1% from its 52-week high. This category also sports former retail-icon now retail-zombie J.C. Penney.

54 stocks have plunged between 60% and 70% from their 52-week highs. This includes wannabe-blockchain-scam outfit Eastman Kodak, Och-Ziff Capital management, Tata Motors (ADR), Lumber Liquidators, homebuilders Hovnanian and William Lyon Homes, and Luby’s (Luby’s, Fuddruckers, Koo Koo Roo, Cheeseburger in Paradise).

122 stocks have plunged between 50% and 60% from their 52-week highs. This includes General Electric (at -59.7%, it barely missed the category above), crane maker Manitowoc, Winnebago Industries, Eldorado Gold, Rite Aid, teetering California utility PG&E (-56%, even after its regulator-induced 40% bounce over the past four trading days), Container Store, Deutsche Bank (-53.3%), homebuilder Beazer Homes, real estate focused Colony Capital, Dean Foods, Korean LCD manufacturer LG Display, Marriott’s former timeshare outfit Marriott Vacations Worldwide, and Aurora Cannabis.

219 stocks have plunged between 40% and 50% from their 52-week highs. This includes Owens Corning, Alcoa, US Steel, Grubhub, Lions Gate Entertainment, PittneyBowes, Abercrombie & Fitch, DuPont spin-off Chemours, Halliburton, Tenet Healthcare, chemicals maker Huntsman, Chesapeake Energy, formerly red-hot online-only furniture retailer Wayfair, Yelp, Del Monte, Manpower, Schlumberger, Michael Kors, GE’s partial acquisition Baker Hughes, homebuilders KB Home and Lennar, megadealer AutoNation, Credit Suisse, and Legg Mason.

Below is the complete list of the 438 stocks on the NYSE that have plunged between 40% and 94% from their 52-week highs to their closing price on November 21. You can search the list via the search box in your browser. If your smartphone (like mine) cuts off the table on the right side, hold your phone in landscape position (data via WSJ’s Market Data Center):

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, sancho panza said:

'Sources said the transatlantic airline was pursuing an interest in Flybe because of the opportunities a tie-up would provide to feed passenger traffic into Virgin Atlantic's long-haul network, as well as its access to valuable take-off and landing slots at London Heathrow Airport which are ring-fenced for domestic flights.

The two carriers already operate a code-share pact aimed at improving access to Virgin Atlantic's long-haul routes for regional customers using the regional airline's flights into Heathrow and Manchester.'

Makes a lot of sense,As I've said with my regular trips on Flybe,I really liked them.

Quite happy with how the price is performing today, Flybe have issued a statement confirming Virgin being "one of" the bidders, currently up 49% today at 14.4p, so i'm now slightly back in the green.

Remains a very volatile one to watch though, would probably reverse quite sharply back to 10p if the Virgin bid is rejected. Just shows though that if you take some time to not only look at the financials but the wider position and trust your gut, remove emotion best you can, sometimes (not always of course) things actually work and you find it's the emotion/sentiment of others that usually trips people up. Question is, like in other aspects of life, when and how much to pull out.

I've also pulled out some of my Stagecoach at 154p and put it in Centrica at 130p, just couldn't help myself :D

Link to comment
Share on other sites

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/21/stock-market-margin-debt-plunges-most-since-lehman-moment/

Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment

by Wolf Richter • Nov 21, 2018 • 101 Comments

It gets serious. Margin calls?

No one knows what the total leverage in the stock market is. But we know it’s huge and has surged in past years, based on the limited data we have, and from reports by various brokers about their “securities-based loans” (SBLs), and from individual fiascos when, for example, a $1.6 billion SBL to just one guy blows up. There are many ways to use leverage to fund stock holdings, including credit card loans, HELOCs, loans at the institutional level, loans by companies to its executives to buy the company’s shares, or the super-hot category of SBLs, where brokers lend to their clients. None of them are reported on an overall basis.

The only form of stock market leverage that is reported monthly is “margin debt” – the amount individual and institutional investors borrow from their brokers against their portfolios. Margin debt is subject to well-rehearsed margin calls. And apparently, they have kicked off.

In the ugliest stock-market October anyone can remember, margin debt plunged by $40.5 billion, FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) reported this morning – the biggest plunge since November 2008, weeks after Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy:

US-margin-debt-change-MoM-2018-10.png

During the stock market boom since the Financial Crisis, this measure of margin debt has surged from high to high, reaching a peak in May 2018 of $669 billion, up 60% from the pre-Financial Crisis peak in July 2007, and up 117% since January 2012. Since the peak in May, margin debt has dropped by $62 billion (-9.2%). Note the $40.5-billion plunge in October:

US-margin-debt-2012_2018-10.png

In the two-decade scheme of things, the relationship between stock market surges and crashes and margin debt becomes obvious.

Back during the dot-com bubble, dot-com stocks, traded mostly on the Nasdaq, included what today are booming survivors like Amazon [AMZN], barely hangers-on like RealNetworks [RNWK], or goners like eToys.

At the time, these stocks soared by stunning amounts, and people, such as myself, used margin debt, to enhance their returns. When stocks plunged, the margin calls came, and these people had to sell their holdings into an illiquid and plunging market. They ended up selling their best and most liquid stuff first and watched their trash get trashed further.

When it was over by October 2002, the Nasdaq had plunged 78%. Over the same period, margin debt plunged 54%. A similar scenario played out during the Financial Crisis crash. And now we have the “Everything Bubble” to deal with:

US-margin-debt-1997_2018-10.png

Surging margin debt creates stock-market liquidity out of nothing, and this new liquidity is used to buy more stocks. In this manner, rising margin debt is the great accelerator on the way up.

When prices on individual stocks drop sharply – even as the S&P 500 index might decline at a moderate pace – investors, including hedge funds, with margin debt and concentrated holdings in these stocks may find that their portfolio has taken enough of a hit to where they get margin calls.

Now they have to dump stocks to pay down margin debt. This begets further selling pressure, which begets more margin calls, which begets more forced selling….  In this manner, a high level of margin debt turns into the great accelerator on the way down.

But this money from those stock sales doesn’t go into other stocks or another asset class, and it doesn’t sit at the “sidelines” waiting to jump in again at the next dip. Nope, it is used to pay down margin debt. And thus, this liquidity just evaporates without a trace.

October’s plunge in margin debt was just the beginning, a little dimple in the overall chart. Unwinding such a huge pile of margin debt and overall stock-market leverage takes time, years, and they’ll be interrupted with some brief increases that’ll make everyone feel better for a moment.

It gets costly when the entire market depends on a handful of over-hyped mega-caps. Read…  FANGMAN Stocks Plunge 4.4% Today, Down $905 Billion, or 20%, since Aug. 31  

4 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Quite happy with how the price is performing today, Flybe have issued a statement confirming Virgin being "one of" the bidders, currently up 49% today at 14.4p, so i'm now slightly back in the green.

Remains a very volatile one to watch though, would probably reverse quite sharply back to 10p if the Virgin bid is rejected. Just shows though that if you take some time to not only look at the financials but the wider position and trust your gut, remove emotion best you can, sometimes (not always of course) things actually work and you find it's the emotion/sentiment of others that usually trips people up. Question is, like in other aspects of life, when and how much to pull out.

I've also pulled out some of my Stagecoach at 154p and put it in Centrica at 130p, just couldn't help myself :D

Fair play barnsey,great call.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/11/21/stock-market-margin-debt-plunges-most-since-lehman-moment/

Stock-Market Margin Debt Plunges Most Since Lehman Moment

by Wolf Richter • Nov 21, 2018 • 101 Comments

It gets serious. Margin calls?

No one knows what the total leverage in the stock market is. But we know it’s huge and has surged in past years, based on the limited data we have, and from reports by various brokers about their “securities-based loans” (SBLs), and from individual fiascos when, for example, a $1.6 billion SBL to just one guy blows up. There are many ways to use leverage to fund stock holdings, including credit card loans, HELOCs, loans at the institutional level, loans by companies to its executives to buy the company’s shares, or the super-hot category of SBLs, where brokers lend to their clients. None of them are reported on an overall basis.

The only form of stock market leverage that is reported monthly is “margin debt” – the amount individual and institutional investors borrow from their brokers against their portfolios. Margin debt is subject to well-rehearsed margin calls. And apparently, they have kicked off.

In the ugliest stock-market October anyone can remember, margin debt plunged by $40.5 billion, FINRA (Financial Industry Regulatory Authority) reported this morning – the biggest plunge since November 2008, weeks after Lehman Brothers had filed for bankruptcy:

Pretty incredible isn't it that we're seeing something like this right now vs how things were back in summer?

One interesting stat I came across yesterday is that US BBB-rated corporate bonds (close to being downgraded to junk status should the likely SHTF) now match the subprime bubble at peak!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

Pretty incredible isn't it that we're seeing something like this right now vs how things were back in summer?

One interesting stat I came across yesterday is that US BBB-rated corporate bonds (close to being downgraded to junk status should the likely SHTF) now match the subprime bubble at peak!

The corporate bonds thing is starting to be flagged by a lot of commentators as the next time bomb to blow, GE in particular is very exposed and could be the catalyst for a little bit of "re-pricing of risk".  I forget the exact number but it something like $4T of BBB rated bonds just one step from junk rated oblivion.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, Festival said:

Have put in orders for CNA at 125 and FRES at 772 where I believe there is support. Long term purchases both if they come to pass.

Well it didn’t take long for the FRES part to trigger

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...