Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

I'm going to stop banging on about it, promise, but erm yeah, Flybe now up 90% today O.o

Edit: already on it's way back down, more volatile than a crosswind landing at London City xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

 

 

US-margin-debt-1997_2018-10.png

Surging margin debt creates stock-market liquidity out of nothing, and this new liquidity is used to buy more stocks. In this manner, rising margin debt is the great accelerator on the way up.

When prices on individual stocks drop sharply – even as the S&P 500 index might decline at a moderate pace – investors, including hedge funds, with margin debt and concentrated holdings in these stocks may find that their portfolio has taken enough of a hit to where they get margin calls.

Now they have to dump stocks to pay down margin debt.

That is some chart!  A great article and I didn't really know about margin debt so very informative.  Thanks for posting.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, MrXxx said:

F3r you make the point about SL, but I thought they kicked in straight away hence the point of using them, am I mistaken?

@dgul explained it well I thought but just to be sure - a stop loss is a misnomer because it doesn't stop your loss. It should really be called auto-sell-attempt or something like that. 

Supposing the price of Slavebox Housebuilding is hovering about 110 and you set a stop-loss at 100. Suddenly there is some bad news and the price falls to 65 in just a few minutes. It will tear through your 100 on the way down but you will still be selling at 65 not 100. 

Assuming you can sell at all - why would anyone be buying after the shock discovery that Slavebox used radioactive asbestos in construction of all their houses...

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
On 22/11/2018 at 15:01, Festival said:

Have put in orders for CNA at 125 and FRES at 772 where I believe there is support. Long term purchases both if they come to pass.

My Centrica order was filled while I was out today.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Last few weeks have been brutal against my isa and sipp. As I am not a trader but rather a yield seeking long term investor it shows the importance of regular and evenly spread out share purchases.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
44 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

when was it 125 today?

Never.

By gazumping I meant I'd gone for a higher price to get filled before Festival's 125. It's nothing personal but I hope the price runs away from Festival now!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Never.

By gazumping I meant I'd gone for a higher price to get filled before Festival's 125. It's nothing personal but I hope the price runs away from Festival now!

ah, sorry, missed that. Wasnt reading too closely. Sold off BT.a and DRX today, was fed up wiaitng for PRSR action so binned them off as well. Whittling down on everything to be honest, cut a few funds in half as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Spark Energy folded today, just 2 days after Extra Energy, not looking good for the little un's is it? :P

The interesting stuff is in the detail.  They're all folding because they've not been paying their 'renewable power obligation'.  I have a feeling that the directors have been sharing out this payment, and they've now reached the point where push and shove meet.  But they've still got their share of £14m...  quite a good scam, IMO.  (it's a bit like the usual VAT scam, but easier to get away with (or so it seems)).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Last few weeks have been brutal against my isa and sipp. As I am not a trader but rather a yield seeking long term investor it shows the importance of regular and evenly spread out share purchases.  

I know the feeling. Just bought another batch of FRES only to watch it drop again:o Me thinks it's time to get ready for the continuation of the 2008/9 deflation.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

My Centrica order was filled while I was out today.

You got filled at 125?  I got a 127.75 low.  11.50% down for the week!  Now down at Mar 03 low!!!!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, Majorpain said:

The corporate bonds thing is starting to be flagged by a lot of commentators as the next time bomb to blow, GE in particular is very exposed and could be the catalyst for a little bit of "re-pricing of risk".  I forget the exact number but it something like $4T of BBB rated bonds just one step from junk rated oblivion.

I dumped everything about 2 weeks ago.  Time to move on.  More fun to watch from the sidelines and maybe buy shares in those companies who have played the debt game well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Last few weeks have been brutal against my isa and sipp. As I am not a trader but rather a yield seeking long term investor it shows the importance of regular and evenly spread out share purchases.  

Inetresting.  I run one share based FTSE div portfolio and one ETF/IT div portfolio.  Nothing to buy on the second, and the ITs are not cushioning anything, while a fair amount of action on the FTSE div one.  Defo a pickers market.  The ETFs/ITs just don't seem granular enough.  Woks against me ATM as ending up buying baggage stocks as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
17 minutes ago, Harley said:

You got filled at 125?  I got a 127.75 low.  11.50% down for the week!  Now down at Mar 03 low!!!!!

No, I am not Festival, nor is he (or she) me.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Inetresting.  I run one share based FTSE div portfolio and one ETF/IT div portfolio.  Nothing to buy on the second, and the ITs are not cushioning anything, while a fair amount of action on the FTSE div one.  Defo a pickers market.  The ETFs/ITs just don't seem granular enough.  Woks against me ATM as ending up buying baggage stocks as well.

This (isa, with etf index trackers) was on my `to do list` for about 6 months but I just haven't got round to doing it...now to me it seems like a better option to stay in cash and wait for the dust to settle, what are others thoughts/opinions?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

This (isa, with etf index trackers) was on my `to do list` for about 6 months but I just haven't got round to doing it...now to me it seems like a better option to stay in cash and wait for the dust to settle, what are others thoughts/opinions?

Just to point out that 'stay in cash' is the same as investing in long sterling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Things are definitely getting dicey, I've chickened out and sold many reflation stocks after seeing what's happening with Centrica (which I still hold), we all make our own personal risk choices but I'm going heavy IBTL and NS&I Premium Bonds with a view to not pick up much else until we're in the bust next year, only then I'll pick up PMs and miners unless they hit my lower targets in the meantime. 

Still the chance of a short term rally into new year but I'm nowhere near as confident as I was of that happening now after looking at what oil is doing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Funn3r said:

@dgul explained it well I thought but just to be sure - a stop loss is a misnomer because it doesn't stop your loss. It should really be called auto-sell-attempt or something like that. 

Supposing the price of Slavebox Housebuilding is hovering about 110 and you set a stop-loss at 100. Suddenly there is some bad news and the price falls to 65 in just a few minutes. It will tear through your 100 on the way down but you will still be selling at 65 not 100. 

Assuming you can sell at all - why would anyone be buying after the shock discovery that Slavebox used radioactive asbestos in construction of all their houses...

 

You can use guaranteed stops.

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Spark Energy folded today, just 2 days after Extra Energy, not looking good for the little un's is it? :P

Impressive.I think that stat about in 2010 the big six having 100% of the customers ........we'll go full circle.

4 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Never.

By gazumping I meant I'd gone for a higher price to get filled before Festival's 125. It's nothing personal but I hope the price runs away from Festival now!

:D Love it.I think I'll be gazxumping at anything under £1-30 Monday.Incredible price.It's lucky I'm  in the presence of fellow contrarians otherwise life would be lonely.

2 hours ago, leonardratso said:

He's the 6th Horseman.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
37 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

:D Love it.I think I'll be gazxumping at anything under £1-30 Monday.Incredible price.It's lucky I'm  in the presence of fellow contrarians otherwise life would be lonely.

Funny you should say anything under £1.30 because my limit order was.... drum roll.... 129.90... which I should have stated earlier to avoid the confusion with Festival's 125!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The XYY Man said:

It is taught that Jesus threw the money-changers out of the temple.

Having read a fair chunk of this thread, I can see that the bearded holy fucker has a point...

 

XYY

The problem now is that just like the majority of our politicians they have `bought off`the bearded fella! :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, The XYY Man said:

It is taught that Jesus threw the money-changers out of the temple.

Having read a fair chunk of this thread, I can see that the bearded holy fucker has a point...

Bit late that for that, i dread to think how much of the UK economy is based on "low monthly payments".  Housing, cars, TV's, phones, holidays, pets.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, dgul said:

Just to point out that 'stay in cash' is the same as investing in long sterling.

So I suppose the only alternative to this then is to partly hedge by buy buying some ST overseas treasuries as well as sterling?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...