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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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2 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Any views on Apple? I expect divergent replies (Apologies if it’s upthread). Share price seems to be down 20% on the month. 

Avoid unless they come up with anything tangibly new, they've stopped releasing shipment numbers for some (all?) main products, the Chinese have gone full retard monitoring state and with it there will be an aversion to foreign product purchases, business might even be more difficult to transact in China as a result. They've joined the virtue signally/deplatforming mob - I will certainly not be buying another Apple product, many others won't either. Their latest phone releases are a flop, way too expensive and hardly any new features. Their new laptops are pretty much unserviceable - soldered on everything, they've added repair blocking hardware to prevent cheaper non-franchise repair. Lots to hit Apple with for that lot and their reputation could fall rapidly. Also fang stocks in general are down so sector wide downward pressure.

They do have a archest squirrelled abroad, they could use that to purchase their shares and spruce their stock price but even that may not be enough.

 

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Maybe nothing, but just bought a few different gift cards from 1 shop as xmas pressies, however when he scanned the Debenhams ones the cashier said a message came up on the system that they can no longer be sold :ph34r:

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3 hours ago, onlyme said:

Their new laptops are pretty much unserviceable - soldered on everything, they've added repair blocking hardware to prevent cheaper non-franchise repair. Lots to hit Apple with for that lot and their reputation could fall rapidly.

Thats disgraceful, not just being forced to use apple for repairs, but also down the line Apple may stop supporting the product and you would be forced to buy a new one!  That practice should be hounded whenever it starts to rear its ugly head.

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Maybe nothing, but just bought a few different gift cards from 1 shop as xmas pressies, however when he scanned the Debenhams ones the cashier said a message came up on the system that they can no longer be sold :ph34r:

seems strange, surely they shoudl sell them then refuse to cash them in later, thats the way gifts cards of bankrupts usually work.

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Thats disgraceful, not just being forced to use apple for repairs, but also down the line Apple may stop supporting the product and you would be forced to buy a new one!  That practice should be hounded whenever it starts to rear its ugly head.

They have been upping the AppleCare charges as well at the same time. The US has a right to repair bill and this effectively nullifies the usefulness of that.

https://www.extremetech.com/computing/278261-apple-now-bricks-macbook-pros-to-prevent-third-party-repair

Apple Now Bricks MacBook Pros to Prevent Third-Party Repair

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1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

seems strange, surely they shoudl sell them then refuse to cash them in later, thats the way gifts cards of bankrupts usually work.

They weren't being bought from Debs (I presume) -- for a third party retailer the margins on gift cards are pretty thin and they might be well advised to avoid the aggro of annoyed customers come x weeks time.  Also, people are likely to want to spend the money -- if they can't get a Debs card they'll just pick up a M&S / JL card instead, so there'd be precious little lost business.

But why was a Debs card being bought at all?  Surely the risk-weighted value would be rather small, compared, say with giving cash and a note saying 'but you must spend it in Debenhams'

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Maybe nothing, but just bought a few different gift cards from 1 shop as xmas pressies, however when he scanned the Debenhams ones the cashier said a message came up on the system that they can no longer be sold :ph34r:

Interesting...

I've always assumed that they'd go bankrupt after Christmas, as that's the time the bills come in -- but there is chat about them going bankrupt before Christmas so the receivers can sell all the stock while people have cash.

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8 hours ago, Ash4781b said:

Any views on Apple? I expect divergent replies (Apologies if it’s upthread). Share price seems to be down 20% on the month. 

As an investment?

Or as a company?

Investment - no. V overpriced. But thats not apples fault.

As a company? Bullettproof for 30 years.

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On 30/11/2018 at 17:05, Majorpain said:

The current main contractor model was built on extending payment to subcontractors and using that to pay day to day expenses.  It was essentially subbies lending money for free since you dont pay interest on current payment terms.  Nice work if you can get it, and major reason why Carillion with their 90-120 day payment terms caused such a massive amount of damage when 3 months of payments got wiped.  The government has got wise to this which is why Kier is suddenly desperate for cash, and needs it now!

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2018/11/29/major-contractors-face-public-work-ban-over-late-payment/

Not great, but not too badly.  Unlisted private Laing O'Rourke which struggled to get its accounts signed off earlier this year has lost credit cover, 2 years ago the insurance company gave as much cover as wanted within 30 mins of looking at their accounts!  They are bleeding senior staff to competitors and are another one to watch IMO.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46414477

”The chairman of the HS2 rail programme, Britain's biggest infrastructure project, has told BBC News he expects to be sacked in the coming days. 

Sir Terry Morgan, who only took up the role four months ago, has also been involved in London's Crossrail project for the past decade.”

Interesting. Wonder what l’s going on behind the scenes.

 

 

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3 minutes ago, spygirl said:

As an investment?

Or as a company?

Investment - no. V overpriced. But thats not apples fault.

As a company? Bullettproof for 30 years.

That’s 3 - also as an indicator for consumer demand...(onlyme has given some interesting notes re China).

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1 minute ago, Ash4781b said:

That’s 3 - also as an indicator for consumer demand...(onlyme has given some interesting notes re China).

Its hard to work out China.

Im not planning in China being a trade ussue for lonh.

China either has to open and allow free trade.

Or be banned and collapse inward.

The true state of chinese banks is interesting. Look more fucked than 2008.

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Talking Monkey
On ‎30‎/‎11‎/‎2018 at 18:32, Barnsey said:

I know it's *that* website but this is a very important read, pretty much sums up focus of the next crash, as above with the info posted by @UnconventionalWisdom

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-30/cracks-appear-90-billion-rated-bonds-downgraded-bbb-q4

Is the consensus that zerohedge is a total rubbish website

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20 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is the consensus that zerohedge is a total rubbish website

its had its moments, for example it managed to predicted all 200 of the recent 3 recessions correctly. Has a habit of saying shit like 'gold soars in after market' 'stocks dump in pre market' etc etc and when you go check its usually feck all, just a bit of volatility.

a broken clock is correct twice a day.

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On 30/11/2018 at 17:05, Majorpain said:

The current main contractor model was built on extending payment to subcontractors and using that to pay day to day expenses.  It was essentially subbies lending money for free since you dont pay interest on current payment terms.  Nice work if you can get it, and major reason why Carillion with their 90-120 day payment terms caused such a massive amount of damage when 3 months of payments got wiped.  The government has got wise to this which is why Kier is suddenly desperate for cash, and needs it now!

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2018/11/29/major-contractors-face-public-work-ban-over-late-payment/

Not great, but not too badly.  Unlisted private Laing O'Rourke which struggled to get its accounts signed off earlier this year has lost credit cover, 2 years ago the insurance company gave as much cover as wanted within 30 mins of looking at their accounts!  They are bleeding senior staff to competitors and are another one to watch IMO.

Appreciate your insight and clear explanation.

I've wondered about the companies building all the studetn blocks in places liek Coventry,they must be hugely exposed.Do you have a view MP and any favourites worth a mention.

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On 30/11/2018 at 18:32, Barnsey said:

I know it's *that* website but this is a very important read, pretty much sums up focus of the next crash, as above with the info posted by @UnconventionalWisdom

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-11-30/cracks-appear-90-billion-rated-bonds-downgraded-bbb-q4

Theyve had some really good articles over the years.People moan,but they almost always reference their sources for cross checking

On 30/11/2018 at 21:27, harp said:

Another update. Sorry if already posted.

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

Thank you for posting

 

 

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32 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Not sure where your data is from.

Investing.com has Kier with assets £2.8bn versus Liabilities £2.2bn.Assets include goodwil £560mn intangibles £300mn.Net income of £60mn on £2.2 bn revenue=2.7%

https://uk.investing.com/equities/kier-group-balance-sheet

Quite right -- my mistake -- that should be £620mish net debt, £460mish cash for investment.  

But your headline figure of debt vs assets is much more relevant -- debt is real, whereas asset valuation is a matter of opinion.

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2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Appreciate your insight and clear explanation.

I've wondered about the companies building all the studetn blocks in places liek Coventry,they must be hugely exposed.Do you have a view MP and any favourites worth a mention.

The Unite Group plc (UTG) is the largest one I know. Haven’t looked at their accounts but chart looks predictably toppy.

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Talking Monkey
13 hours ago, leonardratso said:

its had its moments, for example it managed to predicted all 200 of the recent 3 recessions correctly. Has a habit of saying shit like 'gold soars in after market' 'stocks dump in pre market' etc etc and when you go check its usually feck all, just a bit of volatility.

a broken clock is correct twice a day.

I did notice that they tend to spin the Dow being down 50 points as Armageddon being imminent

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14 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

Is the consensus that zerohedge is a total rubbish website

I'm convinced it's run by the same guys as RT, trying to take the Western World down. But some articles are good, have to check the source.

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13 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Appreciate your insight and clear explanation.

I've wondered about the companies building all the studetn blocks in places liek Coventry,they must be hugely exposed.Do you have a view MP and any favourites worth a mention.

From what ive seen there are not too many specialist builders, the majority are just regular contractors who won that work.  A student accomodation block is not too different from a block of flats or new build hotels after all. Bedroom, bathroom pod, living room and your set!

Once its built your usual main contractors will have defects to cover and thats it, as lavelas mentioned it will be the clients like Unite who will have the blocks on their books and the liability in the future if they cant fill it. 

On a related note Swansea university had a youtube advert for me today for a chemistry course.... in December?  Id love to know which are the 3 universities on the brink of bankruptcy.

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