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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

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18 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

If you look on HL at a share page eg CNA, then select the Dividend tab then select Full Dividend Breakdown there are details next to each date, e.g. ex-dividend, payment

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/centrica-plc-ord-6,1481p/dividends

That’s great- been embarrassed to ask for ages because I understand the ex-dividend date alright. But it’s the bit before that I can’t figure out. Whats the title of the Start date before then, the date you have to hold the shares from in order to qualify for the dividend? 

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1 minute ago, Thorn said:

That’s great- been embarrassed to ask for ages because I understand the ex-dividend date alright. But it’s the bit before that I can’t figure out. Whats the title of the Start date before then, the date you have to hold the shares from in order to qualify for the dividend? 

There is no title. The start date is the day before or after the ex-div date. You will then be entitled to the next div payout if you hold those shares up to the ex-div date.

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5 minutes ago, A_P said:

There is no title. The start date is the day before or after the ex-div date. You will then be entitled to the next div payout if you hold those shares up to the ex-div date.

Ahhh. So you can literally just get some the day before , hold for a day or two, til ex-div, sell again, and then receive the next divi even though you don’t own it at that stage?

(sound of a big hard penny trying very hard to drop here)

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Just now, Thorn said:

Ahhh. So you can literally just get some the day before , hold for a day or two, til ex-div, sell again, and then receive the next divi even though you don’t own it at that stage?

(sound of a big hard penny trying very hard to drop here)

Correct. But as DB mentioned once a share goes ex-div the share prices reduces to the value of the dividend. So there is really no benefit trying to get in and out just to get the div.

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It seems the So-Called BBC have been reading this thread:

FTSE 100 closes down 3.5%

The FTSE 100 has finished an extremely rocky day of trading, down 3.5%, or 244 points, at 6,677.74.

Insurance group Prudential ended Thursday as the biggest blue chip faller, down 7% at £13.98, followed by mining giant Antofagasta, off 6.9% at 761.1p and industrial conglomerate Melrose whose shares shed 6.1% to end at 156p.

Only two companies rose on the FTSE 100 - both miners.

Randgold Resources rose 3% to £65.76 while Fresnillo added 1.4% to 785.8p.

 

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1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

And just like that, with no positive news to be seen anywhere, U.S. stocks are bouncing back off their "technical" levels, all is saved! xD

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

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9 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I owned Imperial from when i was at school.The first share i bought was Hanson Trust (who owned Imperial).Imperial paid my house off roughly over the years with divis.I sold it after a couple of decades near its highs (and BAT) and miss the old girl.If i was forced to track one market with monthly pension savings averaging,it would be the FTSE from here.

Id really like the miners to run though Harley while this market continues lower.

 

Interested in your FTSE100/pension statement, why is that?, as its nearing its bottom and so has more scope to climb?

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Democorruptcy
On 04/12/2018 at 13:44, Bear Hug said:

Royal Mail may get relegated to FTSE250. Any views on the share price following such an event?

 

BT seems to have moved higher on bad pension news.  I did expect the downside to be immaterial compared to their overall pension liabilities but did not expect a move up.

Article here from 2015 that states 51% had left FTSE since previous peak. It lists them all

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/feb/25/ftse-100-companies-1999-2015

It's a quarterly review next one this month. Anything 111th or lower is out. Latest positions by market cap with fixed entry/deletion points:

http://www.stockchallenge.co.uk/ftse.php

On 4th Dec RMG were 124th

 

 

 

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On 06/12/2018 at 02:26, Harley said:

...

And regarding value, I was doing historic reseach on the performance of various broad market ETFs and noticed the (I think) Vanguard value one had done quite well over the years compared to several growth focussed ones.  Indeed, quite a lot better (relatively) than I had expected.  My take away from that was to look at more value focussed ETFs/ITs and this guy has confirmed that.

So many thanks for posting as it comes at just the right time and resonates really well.

 

I invested in the Vanguard VTV based on trying to capture the DOW up-move as forecast by Armstrong.. happy with it so far.

More from the man:

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, December 6, 2018
5c09492a94cd151b7cc3f350

We are still in this obsession with interest rates and how people are completely brainwashed with respect to their impact. Wage growth picked up across America and the job market continued to strengthen. The market is still in a position to test the key support. However, keep in mind that should come cyclically in 2019. The obsession with interest rates and that a strong economy is somehow bearish for stocks is really strange logic. When the economy turns down, interest rates fall, but so do stock prices. This is very weird logic to cheer lower interest rates and fear rising rates. In a normal economy that is growing, rates rise BECAUSE the demand for money rises for investment. The whole problem in Europe is that not even negative rates have helped because people see no opportunity for investment so they do not borrow. What we must remain concerned about is crossing that line in the Paradox when rising rates reflects the collapse in confidence. Then rates rise exponentially and capital flees to private assets.

The US economy continues to hold up the entire world and Asia and Europe are declining. In Europe, we see the funds shifting to German bunds against just about everyone else in the EU especially ahead of next week's vote on BREXIT. We still have chaos coming next week with Directional Changes and Panic Cycles in various markets. We warned that December was a crazy month. We even have Merkel stepping down as the head of the CDU.

While the majority of forecasts are calling now for a catastrophic collapse in the stock market, those forecast are clearly being made in isolation. For such an event to take place, there must be the typical flight to quality running into the bond markets. But the doubts rising in that arena continue to warn that if anything, capital is seriously confused and sitting on the edge questioning which direction to jump first.

We elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals in the Dow holding #3 and #4. We are still well above the Monthly Bearish which is possible to test in 2019 to create the ultimate confusion

Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May. Political events unfolding in Europe will be CRITICAL. There really is a rising discontent in France against Macron for he is a HUGE disappointment. He continues to support the federalization of Europe but will not come out and directly tell the French people they are too stupid to grasp his grand plans. After Hollande, the discontent in France has spread well beyond the youth. The French are becoming deeply concerned that there is NO HOPE for any politician to actually do anything in their favor.

 

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1 hour ago, MrXxx said:

Interested in your FTSE100/pension statement, why is that?, as its nearing its bottom and so has more scope to climb?

Its mainly because i dont think il be there long,and as soon as i leave it will be moved into my own SIPP.

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1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

I'm weighing up going long some choice US stocks

On 05/12/2018 at 22:03, Bricks & Mortar said:

I am still in the game - but not as connected as I used to be.   I quit working for larger building firms after I worked out a job in the sector is only as good as the next recession.  So, I run a small business now.  Mostly repairs and maintenance - essential stuff like roofs.  And we're in a rural area - quite far from the cities.  My main thinking was proofing against recession.   So far, it's not been as lucrative - but I reckon it's about to have its day in the sun.

Day rates have been going up.  There seems to be a labour shortage.   Noted a Polish construction boss complaining of 10% year-on-year increase in labour rates in his country.  Imagine that, coupled with the exchange rate, and brexit fears, have been tempting Polish workers home.

Plenty of work in my local repair & maintenance sector.  More than we can handle, and same story from other builders I meet at the merchants, or sandwich truck.- So, I suppose I'm not seeing a downturn.  Not that I'd expect to.  Not until 3 months after it appeared on the 6 o'clock news.  (I expect our geographical area to also lag behind any recession)

Have noticed the merchants, the national ones, are all getting tighter with their invoicing.  They're on the phone immediately if their invoice isn't paid, threatening to cut supply or get legal.  They used to leave that until the next month (for wee businesses like us, with accounts in the hundreds, rather than millions).

Thanks for the reply B&M,can you be more specific on which national on es you're referencing?

Personally,I think those who run small local buinesses will do just fine.People like my Mum and her pals use the same people for decades as longas they're honest and reasonable.Those guys with those sort of clients don't see recessions.

 

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2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

I suspect it's still chunky although reduced from peak.Worth noting that iirc the big broker dealers in London don't pay stamp between themselves.

https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/091615/world-high-frequency-algorithmic-trading.asp

Bloomberg reports that while in 2010, HFT "accounted for more than 60% of all U.S. equity volume,” that proved to be a high-water mark. By 2013, that percentage had fallen to roughly 50%. Bloomberg further noted that where in 2009, "high-frequency traders moved about 3.25 billion shares a day. In 2012, it was 1.6 billion a day” and “average profits have fallen from about a tenth of a penny per share to a twentieth of a penny.”

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2 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Just curious but anyone know how algo driven the US exchanges are in comparison to other world exchanges?  There doesnt seem to be much research on exactly who is trading, it could be 99% computers swapping between themselves for all we know!

     Good 2018 article from the FT saying 60% of US vol

https://www.ft.com/content/d81f96ea-d43c-11e7-a303-9060cb1e5f44

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12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im starting ladders again today in Imperial Brands.

IMB held up very well today.  I was out and about so only now got to review today.  Seas of red but a handful held up well. Times like these give you the nod who the gems might be.  Could have done with BATS holding up as well as IMB!  Utilities mixed but my financials hit pretty hard.  My nascent Investment Trust portfolio not doing well at all (slightly worse than ETFs) so maybe a strategic error (note, these are not even broad market ones).  Except, some are now bang on their October lows so really key what happens next (as always!).  Wish bonds would stop their stealth rally and pull back!

Very tempting to buy big tomorrow but I'm thinking of moving to a weekly basis.  Got other work to do but also worry I'm optimising my buy and holds over a too short a time frame.  Plus with the return of some decent volatility, weeklys may begin to have something to say technically.  And the technicals for my holdings suggest more downside to come.  Friday could go big either way. 

Turbulence like this is great for the data it provides and is certainly giving me new thoughts about how to approach things.  Number one is mainly go the specific company route - I'm losing faith in any collective investments as they are just too spray and pray and don't play to what's really required - research and stock picking along the lines largely outlined here.  Maybe just cherry pick individual companies from their holdings data.

PS: MA death cross in the US = apparently a usually well acted signal for funds to sell.

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29 minutes ago, Harley said:

IMB held up very well today.  I was out and about so only now got to review today.  Seas of red but a handful held up well. Times like these give you the nod who the gems might be.  Could have done with BATS holding up as well as IMB!  Utilities mixed but my financials hit pretty hard.  My nascent Investment Trust portfolio not doing well at all (slightly worse than ETFs) so maybe a strategic error (note, these are not even broad market ones).  Except, some are now bang on their October lows so really key what happens next (as always!).  Wish bonds would stop their stealth rally and pull back!

Very tempting to buy big tomorrow but I'm thinking of moving to a weekly basis.  Got other work to do but also worry I'm optimising my buy and holds over a too short a time frame.  Plus with the return of some decent volatility, weeklys may begin to have something to say technically.  And the technicals for my holdings suggest more downside to come.  Friday could go big either way. 

Turbulence like this is great for the data it provides and is certainly giving me new thoughts about how to approach things.  Number one is mainly go the specific company route - I'm losing faith in any collective investments as they are just too spray and pray and don't play to what's really required - research and stock picking along the lines largely outlined here.  Maybe just cherry pick individual companies from their holdings data.

PS: MA death cross in the US = apparently a usually well acted signal for funds to sell.

I much prefer to build a portfolio of around 25 stocks Harley and some PMs etc and ride them through a cycle.Im very interested in Standard Life Aberdeen before the next cycle as they have a very large section that deals with investing peoples money into infrastructure etc and areas i see sucking in big capital.Im tempted to open a ladder on them now at £2.40,or might wait until £2.20 to start as they might get smashed more in equity carnage.I never thought id buy BATs again after selling them near their highs,but im very tempted to start buying a few again.I prefer Imperial though.

Many stocks are in free fall.

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Talking Monkey
6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I much prefer to build a portfolio of around 25 stocks Harley and some PMs etc and ride them through a cycle.Im very interested in Standard Life Aberdeen before the next cycle as they have a very large section that deals with investing peoples money into infrastructure etc and areas i see sucking in big capital.Im tempted to open a ladder on them now at £2.40,or might wait until £2.20 to start as they might get smashed more in equity carnage.I never thought id buy BATs again after selling them near their highs,but im very tempted to start buying a few again.I prefer Imperial though.

Many stocks are in free fall.

Standard look to have a decent dividend yield too

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25 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Standard look to have a decent dividend yield too

Now 9%.  Third highest in FTSE100, after a couple of possible dogs.  Down 45%ish from its last high while FTSE100 down 9%. Approaching its 2009 low.  MACD v price divergence since Oct 18 which needs resolving. Technicals may suggest further weakness but getting hard to resist.  Is div safe?

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2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Now 9%.  Third highest in FTSE100, after a couple of possible dogs.  Down 45%ish from its last high while FTSE100 down 9%. Approaching its 2009 low.  MACD v price divergence since Oct 18 which needs resolving. Technicals may suggest further weakness but getting hard to resist.  Is div safe?

i dont believe any div is safe, no matter what anyone says.

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9 hours ago, Viceroy said:

I invested in the Vanguard VTV based on trying to capture the DOW up-move as forecast by Armstrong.. happy with it so far.

More from the man:

By: Marty Armstrong
Thursday, December 6, 2018
5c09492a94cd151b7cc3f350

We are still in this obsession with interest rates and how people are completely brainwashed with respect to their impact. Wage growth picked up across America and the job market continued to strengthen. The market is still in a position to test the key support. However, keep in mind that should come cyclically in 2019. The obsession with interest rates and that a strong economy is somehow bearish for stocks is really strange logic. When the economy turns down, interest rates fall, but so do stock prices. This is very weird logic to cheer lower interest rates and fear rising rates. In a normal economy that is growing, rates rise BECAUSE the demand for money rises for investment. The whole problem in Europe is that not even negative rates have helped because people see no opportunity for investment so they do not borrow. What we must remain concerned about is crossing that line in the Paradox when rising rates reflects the collapse in confidence. Then rates rise exponentially and capital flees to private assets.

The US economy continues to hold up the entire world and Asia and Europe are declining. In Europe, we see the funds shifting to German bunds against just about everyone else in the EU especially ahead of next week's vote on BREXIT. We still have chaos coming next week with Directional Changes and Panic Cycles in various markets. We warned that December was a crazy month. We even have Merkel stepping down as the head of the CDU.

While the majority of forecasts are calling now for a catastrophic collapse in the stock market, those forecast are clearly being made in isolation. For such an event to take place, there must be the typical flight to quality running into the bond markets. But the doubts rising in that arena continue to warn that if anything, capital is seriously confused and sitting on the edge questioning which direction to jump first.

We elected two Weekly Bearish Reversals in the Dow holding #3 and #4. We are still well above the Monthly Bearish which is possible to test in 2019 to create the ultimate confusion

Keep in mind that we have a Directional Change due in January and key turning points will be February and April. We also see rising volatility in January and May. Political events unfolding in Europe will be CRITICAL. There really is a rising discontent in France against Macron for he is a HUGE disappointment. He continues to support the federalization of Europe but will not come out and directly tell the French people they are too stupid to grasp his grand plans. After Hollande, the discontent in France has spread well beyond the youth. The French are becoming deeply concerned that there is NO HOPE for any politician to actually do anything in their favor.

 

The last quote appears to reflect my feelings towards the UK...perhaps I am not the only one?

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8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I much prefer to build a portfolio of around 25 stocks Harley and some PMs etc and ride them through a cycle.Im very interested in Standard Life Aberdeen before the next cycle as they have a very large section that deals with investing peoples money into infrastructure etc and areas i see sucking in big capital.Im tempted to open a ladder on them now at £2.40,or might wait until £2.20 to start as they might get smashed more in equity carnage.I never thought id buy BATs again after selling them near their highs,but im very tempted to start buying a few again.I prefer Imperial though.

Many stocks are in free fall.

Dude, which fund is that? standard life aberdeen, looks like LANDG has finished revamping their website now and outsourcing their funds, and we have these under aberdeen, is it any of these?

image.png.b2097b9ed074ca600fe4f8a1d4854820.png

 

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