Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
4 hours ago, Thorn said:

100% agree. Same here. And God bless wee GDX it climbed up higher than previous  resistance at 20.1

Hopefully now she’ll lead them all upwards like she’s a guide for them...It’s like all of a sudden a lovely sea of green. 

DB you’re a marvel. 

A case of volatility shaking the tree to better see the trends and smart money.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt get close to the reduced section in Tesco last night 8 middle eastern migrants.No women with them,they will be at home.Iv noticed we are getting lots sent up here now,and lots of 2nd generation with southern accents.

Wierd, noticed exact same out in the sticks here on Thursday.  Something's up.  A couple were being shown how to shop in Aldi by a social worker type.  Woman was very uncomfortable and went home after some sort of exchange with husband.  Never seen anything like this before.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Gold Bounce
By: Marty Armstrong
Saturday, December 8, 2018
5c0aed2c94cd15141866dc04

Of course gold has been trading off of interest rates regardless of how stupid that may be since lower interest rates reflect deflation. Nonetheless, as we can see, technically, gold held the former uptrend channel last year when it fell to 1146 and so far 2018 has just been an inside trading event. Just from a technical perspective, gold must exceed the previous year's high of 1362.40 and close above that to be impressive. At the very minimum gold would need to close above 1309 to show some strength. It just may be too early just yet for any real solid move. That still requires a crack in the monetary system to get people on board. A closing below 1267 will still leave the market vulnerable, although we see a turning point and Directional Change due in January 2019. Caution would be advisable with a January reaction high. The first Monthly Bullish is at the 1330 level. We did elect one Weekly Bullish which has given us the immediate bounce. However, we clearly need a weekly closing above 1267 to see a test of that Monthly level.

Of course, the prospect of a crack of the $1,000 has not been negated as long as we remain below 1362 on a monthly closing basis. That would create a HUGE bear trap and that may be what is needed for a slingshot to the upside into the next ECM target.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, macca said:

I gave up on M&S reduced  items.. Used to get fillet steak for £1.50 now it’s a war zone.. 

again it seems to be all foreign people, I’m not being racist just stating what I am experiencing.. Its a real fight.. 

There was one guy who used to put all the reduced stuff in his basket and take it to the bloke to reduce for final reduction.. 

They stopped that so now you que behind the reduction man, he has walked away in the past due to the pressure.. asking people to give him space.. 

Its nothing like I’ve ever experienced. Everyday is like Black Friday in the yellow sticker isle.. 

The answer?...gaming it...I walked up to a group of `locusts` hassling Mr Yellow Sticker Man with a few reduced items in the top of my basket and  said " I can't believe how much they reduced that steak by, the packaging must cost more than that...must be because they have so much of it!" ...suddenly they swarmed off and Mr YSM said "We've not reduced any meat yet?!", "no" I said, " but you will be before they return won't you?!"...we both laughed and I went home with some reductions :-)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Couldnt get close to the reduced section in Tesco last night 8 middle eastern migrants.No women with them,they will be at home.Iv noticed we are getting lots sent up here now,and lots of 2nd generation with southern accents.

I think they get ~2 years paid for accomodation.

That runs out and they are moved to normal benefits - they should be thrown out at this point,.

SO, they'll move out of the places provided for them - which the council want for more migrants - and move into the private or semi private sector.

So, this will be people whove been housed in Stockton by jonmast moving out to the cheaper and smaller pit villages north - moving south towards whitby is too expensive, bar the greater loftus areabut the natives are not very welcoming.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Eldorado Gold +7.02%

Endeavour Silver +7.07%

Harmony Gold +1.23%

New Gold +9.53%

Sandstorm Gold +4.08%

Sibanye Gold +6.08%

Yamana Gold +3.20%

 

Not a bad day for miners from my list..!

Eldorado will have to go up another 27% for me to break even on them,the old dog.The others are looking decent though.I actually sold a few Harmony at $2.09 and bought them back again at $1.50,reason at $2.09 they were far too big a holding.The Rand is weakening a bit again so they are getting a double benefit.If the Rand gold price goes over 600k a kg (570k now) they should double.They are risky due to being South African,but the amount of gold they have in the ground,around 80 million oz compared to a cap of around $800 million is incredible.I also think they might be sitting on a lot of gold in the greenstone belt areas they own in SA.Their Kalgold mine only does 30k oz a year,but looks like it might be able to go to 150k and open pit.Their Wafi Golpu asset is probably the best copper/gold asset in the world yet to be developed.However unless gold goes up they probably can fund building it.

Endeavour really interest me.They only have small mines,but own some great areas in very strong silver districts.If they hit a big discovery on one of their areas Fresnillo would buy them out i expect.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nicolas Turgeon
15 hours ago, BearyBear said:

Eldorado Gold +7.02%

Endeavour Silver +7.07%

Harmony Gold +1.23%

New Gold +9.53%

Sandstorm Gold +4.08%

Sibanye Gold +6.08%

Yamana Gold +3.20%

 

Not a bad day for miners from my list..!

And the good news is that now people wanting to invest in the gold miners through Hangreaves Lansdown can now finally buy GDX and GDXJ again! That's right, the ETF's  are now tradeable online again through HL (well when the markets reopen) so you don't need to buy a range of individual stocks for gold miner exposure.

Happy Christmas everyone!  5 gooooooold riiiiings!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Harley said:

Wierd, noticed exact same out in the sticks here on Thursday.  Something's up.  A couple were being shown how to shop in Aldi by a social worker type.  Woman was very uncomfortable and went home after some sort of exchange with husband.  Never seen anything like this before.  

the shame of it no doubt.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, stokiescum said:

the shame of it no doubt.

luckily i have no shame myself, definately not where shopping elsewhere is concerned.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

if you guys want to make a list of shares to track, ill rebuild the reflation spreadsheet i have on google drive. Its open so anyone can add;to it.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1lggMOk7ZJd0TkFQamiN_jWgyhnJ3kLuJ2BhmjFmbVwY/edit#gid=0

Ill rebuilld it later today and as in the fantasy 2018 one ill drop some FX converters into it.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 hours ago, MrXxx said:

The answer?...gaming it...I walked up to a group of `locusts` hassling Mr Yellow Sticker Man with a few reduced items in the top of my basket and  said " I can't believe how much they reduced that steak by, the packaging must cost more than that...must be because they have so much of it!" ...suddenly they swarmed off and Mr YSM said "We've not reduced any meat yet?!", "no" I said, " but you will be before they return won't you?!"...we both laughed and I went home with some reductions :-)

i dont bother but ive been known to take stuff out of ee trolleys if ive deemed they are takeing the piss and takeing everything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

luckily i have no shame myself, definately not where shopping elsewhere is concerned.

theres no shame at brighthouse its geting close to one of my favrite seasonal hobbys and thats siting outside brighthouse with a bag of chips and people watching.i even call it peak brighouse,they all leave with big smiles on their faces for some perverse reason.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Eldorado will have to go up another 27% for me to break even on them,the old dog.The others are looking decent though.I actually sold a few Harmony at $2.09 and bought them back again at $1.50,reason at $2.09 they were far too big a holding.The Rand is weakening a bit again so they are getting a double benefit.If the Rand gold price goes over 600k a kg (570k now) they should double.They are risky due to being South African,but the amount of gold they have in the ground,around 80 million oz compared to a cap of around $800 million is incredible.I also think they might be sitting on a lot of gold in the greenstone belt areas they own in SA.Their Kalgold mine only does 30k oz a year,but looks like it might be able to go to 150k and open pit.Their Wafi Golpu asset is probably the best copper/gold asset in the world yet to be developed.However unless gold goes up they probably can fund building it.

Endeavour really interest me.They only have small mines,but own some great areas in very strong silver districts.If they hit a big discovery on one of their areas Fresnillo would buy them out i expect.

 

Just a few words about EDR (10 sec analysis, so take it with a bucket of salt): there was some noise some time ago about them exploiting their highest-grade veins at Guanacevi mine to keep production numbers up and, inevitably, paying for it a few quarters down the line when high-grade ore dried out.

image.png.377cbfa35a5eb9d161cf6549f78840d9.png

I generaly try to steer away from companies that are more interested in massaging their numbers than focusing on their operations. And their acquistition of ElCubo and subsequent production numbers there hint at their unability to handle money or assets. Then again, big silver bull would allow to paper over any cracks.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stokiescum said:

theres no shame at brighthouse its geting close to one of my favrite seasonal hobbys and thats siting outside brighthouse with a bag of chips and people watching.i even call it peak brighouse,they all leave with big smiles on their faces for some perverse reason.

probably cos they have no intention of paying 1 red cent back.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, leonardratso said:

probably cos they have no intention of paying 1 red cent back.

em,id not thought of that.now thats thinking out of the box.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, stokiescum said:

theres no shame at brighthouse its geting close to one of my favrite seasonal hobbys and thats siting outside brighthouse with a bag of chips and people watching.i even call it peak brighouse,they all leave with big smiles on their faces for some perverse reason.

Love it Stokie, you're an absolute ledge xD

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Just a few words about EDR (10 sec analysis, so take it with a bucket of salt): there was some noise some time ago about them exploiting their highest-grade veins at Guanacevi mine to keep production numbers up and, inevitably, paying for it a few quarters down the line when high-grade ore dried out.

image.png.377cbfa35a5eb9d161cf6549f78840d9.png

I generaly try to steer away from companies that are more interested in massaging their numbers than focusing on their operations. And their acquistition of ElCubo and subsequent production numbers there hint at their unability to handle money or assets. Then again, big silver bull would allow to paper over any cracks.

Yes they nearly all tend to do a bit of this,some more than others.The hope is that silver moves so nobody cares.To be fair though smaller players really have no choice but to do this when silver is on the floor,its that,debt,or Care and Maintenance the shafts.Endeavour did high grade Guanacevi,no doubt about that.I have a feeling they will start to high grade again once they open up the new veins.Its a bit like those SA gold miners.Gold at $1200 rand at 13/$ they are hopeless dogs.Gold at $1500 and rand at 14.5$ they are money printing machines.Its why i tend to simply choose from my lists and buy a spread.Longer term investors in the sector though need to consider such things.

In other news,

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46494465

Debt,small margins.Says it all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46494465

Debt,small margins.Says it all.

But it is more complex than that.

This is a 150 year old company that exists in a very reliable business -- low margin, yes, but extraordinarily reliable income against stable costs.

IMO what they've done is borrowed against future income (or, rather, used loans to fund development with the future income as collateral), and used the increased cash-flow (that comes with low interest rates / ease of credit) to fund ever higher senior management pay (and other stuff -- I'm sure there'll turn out to be other ways that cash has left the business).  Now, with credit drying up they've met the downside of that plan.  But the senior management still have their money, and the cash exist vehicles still exist, while people will lose jobs (just before Christmas) and the taxpayer foots the bill.  Great.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

And the good news is that now people wanting to invest in the gold miners through Hangreaves Lansdown can now finally buy GDX and GDXJ again! That's right, the ETF's  are now tradeable online again through HL (well when the markets reopen) so you don't need to buy a range of individual stocks for gold miner exposure.

Happy Christmas everyone!  5 gooooooold riiiiings!

What's the difference between the two? Or best go for both to be on the safe side? I have 6 different ones some good (wesdome) some dogs. So I guess a good spread like GDX or GDXJ! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Love it Stokie, you're an absolute ledge xD

if you get the right spot in longtons precinct you can see the front of brighthouse and cash convertas and even see how busy poundland and greggs are,im easily amused.on the steps of the bandstand type thing is optimum viewing but you will get bullied by the pidgeons for chips.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, harp said:

What's the difference between the two? Or best go for both to be on the safe side? I have 6 different ones some good (wesdome) some dogs. So I guess a good spread like GDX or GDXJ! 

GDXJ contains the smaller gold miners,and now quite a few of the mid range ones.GDX contains all the big gold miners and most of the mid range ones,but no small ones.GDXJ tends to outperform in a gold bull,or underperform in a gold bear.When iv used the two i tended to go 40% GDX,60% GDXJ,or if buying SIL the silver miner fund 30% GDX,40% GDXJ 30% SIL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

no surprises here at all. Next up - capita.

Kier too. Amey up for sale. 

Seems to be sector wide so is it lender driven ? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...