Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
50 minutes ago, kibuc said:

@sancho panza I'll try to respond tomorrow, for now I'm mesmerized by the sight of WDO dropping like a rock. Resource update expected today or tomorrow, I guess there was an early leak :p

It's only 10%.If they drop some more they'll make my lists,probably top tier.

It does look like someone knows something about Kiena.

No pressure on the list.

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I own Yamana among a portolio of 12 PM miners.The problem they have over others is a big debt pile,but they do have very good assets.I would still buy them today as i would all the other ones i own.Its highly likely i will sell my PM portfolio at some point in one go (or sell maybe half the portolio).I would consider a 50% return across the 12 as good,though my targets on gold are $1500 and silver $22/24 and its likely those prices will decide when i sell and would expect 100%+ on my miners.

 

For a speculative punt in the space my favourites are Harmony,Endeavour silver,Alexco.

 

Cheers DB,I'm spraying and praying here.Thanks for teh heads up on Endeavour.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Bounce or not, IMHO we're now in a stock pickers market. 

Passive index tracking, any index tracking, is so last year.  At best they will see-saw up and down.  Great for trading but for investing, I look for value or equity income in individual stocks.  They will defacto become increasingly attractive. 

The beaten up FTSE seems the place to start, then overseas.  Imagine the rubber band once international flows and sterling deem it safe to enter our market.  Well as long as companies stop leaving ours!

TBH, a Christmas bounce is the last thing I want unless it ultimately accelerates the coming final low.  Now is the time to prep for the emerging new normal in 2019+.  Use strength and weakness to sell and buy into positions.

But just had a quick look at the FTSE and a continued bounce of some sort would not surprise me but DYOR folks.

Dumb money will (have?) stop making money this year and the smart, hard working bods like us will be rewarded for once.

Agreed.There's some very over hyped stocks in the main indices-FTSE,DJI,S&P.

In all honesty,I needed a bounce for there to be any value on teh shrot side.I've a little runner on Dunelm and Tesla,that's it.Lowest tally in a while.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Smart.If you can get it at that rate and you're happy to have the house for 10+years.

I hope so, assuming interest rates go up I would feel I’ve got in at the right time.. 

Its to live in would you believe!  It’s £350 per month cheaper than my rent.

Even if it goes down in price I Hope getting the cheap interest rates will offset any saving I would have made waiting for prices to drop..

Its a lottery, I’m 100% certain house prices can’t remain at 17x wages where I live! 

So any interest rate rise would be apocalyptic in Surrey where I live.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, macca said:

I hope so, assuming interest rates go up I would feel I’ve got in at the right time.. 

Its to live in would you believe!  It’s £350 per month cheaper than my rent.

Even if it goes down in price I Hope getting the cheap interest rates will offset any saving I would have made waiting for prices to drop..

Its a lottery, I’m 100% certain house prices can’t remain at 17x wages where I live! 

So any interest rate rise would be apocalyptic in Surrey where I live.. 

Personally, I'd much rather buy in a high-rate, low-price environment than the other way round, but that's the opposite of what we have at the moment and waiting carries a price on it as well, and not just a monetary one. Hope it works out for you.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

@sancho panza I'll try to respond tomorrow, for now I'm mesmerized by the sight of WDO dropping like a rock. Resource update expected today or tomorrow, I guess there was an early leak :p

Just another gift of a buying opportunity for me regardless, if I had any spare cash that is.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Just another gift of a buying opportunity for me regardless, if I had any spare cash that is.

Endeavour Silver up 10%, Wesdome down 10% O.o

I hold both :S

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ive mentioned that the US labour market is red hot, either this thread or another.

Retail may be dead, but the rest is going nuts.

An article confirming what ive been hearing, mainly in software and other product industrial work.

Its cyclical, coming back from 15 years slack, its the retreat of china, its a large number of people removed ftom labour market due to opiod abuse, its a big Fuck you from joe woeker whos had to put up with employer shit for ages

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/In-booming-job-market-workers-are-leaving-their-13460311.php

Basically people are starting new jobs and not telling the old place. They dont care. Maybe they get two salaries, msybe the employer wont notice. Who knows, but fuck you old employee.

Im impressed.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@sancho panza

Whilst i dont want to talk my book, Hochschild on the LSE is one of my favorites.  Chairman holds c. 50% of the shares so has real skin in the game and so it actually delivers some shareholder value.  Risk reward was good enough that i bought in around the current price anyway!

Ive tried to get a mix of companies i like with either good fundamentals like Hoc, Fres or Paas with good exposure to the PM price with less of a risk, mixed in with Sibanye and Harmony with potentially PAF (lse) in the future for mad gainz.  Those ranked the highest in my calculations of total resources to market cap, priced for bankruptcy at $1200 an oz but moonshot if it goes $1400+ and they can mine those deep reserves at a profit.  Goldfields which you have already is in a similar boat, 60m oz of gold in SA but at $1700 oz cost.

I suspect the next big mover will be the Fed meeting in December (if they pause things will be interesting dollar wise at the very least) so there is plenty of time for decision making.  Ill make a decision on Yamana in January rather than following buy high sell low PI sentiment, there is nothing particular wrong with the operations, the only issue is that a lot of the value is already in the shareprice so there is limited upside IMO.  The only company i found which had a worse ratio was Barrick...

There is something to be said for DB's shotgun approach, much less effort researching and keeping an eye on things!  Time is money and DYOR as always.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Harley said:

Bounce or not, IMHO we're now in a stock pickers market. 

Passive index tracking, any index tracking, is so last year.  At best they will see-saw up and down.  Great for trading but for investing, I look for value or equity income in individual stocks.  They will defacto become increasingly attractive. 

But surely see-sawing isn't all that bad for passive investors. Regular investing, re-investing of dividends etc etc. What's been the return for people that have passively invested in the FTSE all these years?

So does that now mean you're not in/or planning to buy the vanguard value/income trackers that you mentioned a while ago?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Lavalas said:

Just another gift of a buying opportunity for me regardless, if I had any spare cash that is.

WDO resource update is out and it's fair to say it a far cry from what I was expecting, but I had some pretty high hopes. I think the initial move down was acting on an actual leak, while the subsequent drop was just following the trend by people not in the know. There's nothing in this update I can see that would justify this hammering.

On a positive note, the cut has been raised to 90g/t for future drilling.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, A_P said:

But surely see-sawing isn't all that bad for passive investors. Regular investing, re-investing of dividends etc etc. What's been the return for people that have passively invested in the FTSE all these years?

So does that now mean you're not in/or planning to buy the vanguard value/income trackers that you mentioned a while ago?

Don't understand.  See saw means to me it goes up and down but nowhere overall.  Past returns?  That's my point.  So rubbish for a passive index tracker that's just after the growth of the past.  If you want value or income you don't go for a passive index tracker which just buys the market.  You pick.  Ideally companies, or at least a targeted fund/ETFs.  IMHO.  So sure, I'll buy value and income but forget trying to passively make the growth of the past.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, Harley said:

Don't understand.  See saw means to me it goes up and down but nowhere overall.  Past returns?  That's my point.  So rubbish for a passive index tracker that's just after the growth of the past.  If you want value or income you don't go for a passive index tracker which just buys the market.  You pick.  Ideally companies, or at least a targeted fund/ETFs.  IMHO.  So sure, I'll buy value and income but forget trying to passively make the growth of the past.

I know what seesaw means and what the FTSE has been doing. Which was my point. Someone passively and reinvesting all this time in the FTSE wouldn't have done too bad at all over the years even though the market hasn't gone anywhere. I don't have the data to hand but something like a 130% return on £1000 invested since 1999.

I was just trying to get you to clarify further because i thought I recalled you recently saying you were in our going to buy vanguard passive funds, ITs, and now you're categorically saying no passive and only stock picking. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

I don't disagree with you if one has the Midas touch it certainly will pay to stock pick but I suspect most of us will pick as many dogs as we do winners resulting in less than stellar growth. In that case is passively investing in a see saw market/index all that bad when you consider the past results of regular and reinvestment in FTSE for us mere mortals? Ok it's no lambos and hooker's type growth but still in my opinion shouldn't be so easily discarded.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, A_P said:

I know what seesaw means and what the FTSE has been doing. Which was my point. Someone passively and reinvesting all this time in the FTSE wouldn't have done too bad at all over the years even though the market hasn't gone anywhere. I don't have the data to hand but something like a 130% return on £1000 invested since 1999.

I was just trying to get you to clarify further because i thought I recalled you recently saying you were in our going to buy vanguard passive funds, ITs, and now you're categorically saying no passive and only stock picking. Perhaps I'm mistaken.

I don't disagree with you if one has the Midas touch it certainly will pay to stock pick but I suspect most of us will pick as many dogs as we do winners resulting in less than stellar growth. In that case is passively investing in a see saw market/index all that bad when you consider the past results of regular and reinvestment in FTSE for us mere mortals? Ok it's no lambos and hooker's type growth but still in my opinion shouldn't be so easily discarded.

Tricky one isn't it? Depends on what central bank action is taken during/after the next recession, if they follow Japan and start buying stocks then all bets are off. I think the major expectation vs reality danger lies over the pond for those who've seen incredible returns since the post GFC bottom, they're staring down the barrel of a passive gun, can quite easily see 50% drop over next couple years for the S&P, unless they follow Japan.

I'm hoping to stock pick AND invest in index trackers in the next bust but will primarily look to other markets for that aspect (CARBS). Probably staying away from entire Eurozone apart from some select German stocks. At the moment mostly in IBTL.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, spygirl said:

Ive mentioned that the US labour market is red hot, either this thread or another.

Retail may be dead, but the rest is going nuts.

An article confirming what ive been hearing, mainly in software and other product industrial work.

Its cyclical, coming back from 15 years slack, its the retreat of china, its a large number of people removed ftom labour market due to opiod abuse, its a big Fuck you from joe woeker whos had to put up with employer shit for ages

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/In-booming-job-market-workers-are-leaving-their-13460311.php

Basically people are starting new jobs and not telling the old place. They dont care. Maybe they get two salaries, msybe the employer wont notice. Who knows, but fuck you old employee.

Im impressed.

 

Yep, the fewer commitments you have and the more the company/boss treats you like sh!t what do they expect in return, your unending loyalty?...The days of the paternalistic company and the loyal employee are long gone, it's `every man (& woman) for himself` nowadays!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Like you say they need to get through to the other side.The FOBT thing was a huge hit,and will see them close a lot of shops.A £10 limit might not of hit them so hard but a £2 limit will.A lot will depend how many they can move to online.If they can gain a decent share in the US (an they are the leader right now) they might be able to get profit to £350 million+.As with all companies getting through the next couple of years is the key.

My thoughts exactly. I’ve been steering clear but watching the sector with interest.

There are two WH shops on my road within 100m of each other. In fact there’s a total of six betting shops all within a stones throw. Whatever time of the day, there’s only one or two people in each of them, and these take up double fronted shop spaces. I can only conclude that FOBT was the only thing keeping these open and fully expect most to struggle. They tend to be ex post offices and banks, and as betting and chicken shops dominate in downtrodden areas, what will replace these in retail apocalypse?

I like the sector and will continue to watch going forward, as well with the likes of Diageo that tend to do well in a financial downturn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, MrXxx said:

Yep, the fewer commitments you have and the more the company/boss treats you like sh!t what do they expect in return, your unending loyalty?...The days of the paternalistic company and the loyal employee are long gone, it's `every man (& woman) for himself` nowadays!

Well, its actually the days of threatening China or India are a means to hold down labout costs are gone.

China is more expesnive than UK and US, as well as being more err Chinese.

India is shit, thats really wide known now. Outsource customer service to India? Expect customer details sold and UK customers putting down the phone as soonas they hear an Indian accent.

Put something more skilled to India.... hahahaha

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
16 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

My thoughts exactly. I’ve been steering clear but watching the sector with interest.

There are two WH shops on my road within 100m of each other. In fact there’s a total of six betting shops all within a stones throw. Whatever time of the day, there’s only one or two people in each of them, and these take up double fronted shop spaces. I can only conclude that FOBT was the only thing keeping these open and fully expect most to struggle. They tend to be ex post offices and banks, and as betting and chicken shops dominate in downtrodden areas, what will replace these in retail apocalypse?

I like the sector and will continue to watch going forward, as well with the likes of Diageo that tend to do well in a financial downturn.

I used to manage a shop and last year spoke to someone who still does and he told me his shop now took more from the FOBTs than it did over the counter. When I worked there, the shops were social hubs, you knew what time each oldtimer was going to come in and which seat they were going to take for the afternoon. These people haven't been replaced because the younger ones are net/mobile users. There's going to be a lot of shop closures, maybe partly to try lobby for the stake increasing again. The thing is though, shares often go up on bad news like people losing their jobs because it's cutting costs. Money moving from shops to online might increase profit margins and the US ruling is a biggie. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

When I worked there, the shops were social hubs, you knew what time each oldtimer was going to come in and which seat they were going to take for the afternoon. These people haven't been replaced because the younger ones are net/mobile users. There's going to be a lot of shop closures, maybe partly to try lobby for the stake increasing again. The thing is though, shares often go up on bad news like people losing their jobs because it's cutting costs. Money moving from shops to online might increase profit margins and the US ruling is a biggie. 

Ah the memories! Worked in a WH in Edinburgh about 10 years ago post GFC, the shift to mobile is now significant for the under 55s (ish) so they'll be closing huge numbers of shops in the near future as you rightly predict. The older social bookie crowd are sadly passing away in ever greater numbers.

Better half worked for a couple of online ones so got a great insight into how (perversely) addictive and successful their business models are. Also know a friend of a friend who designs some of the games for various sites, huge offices in London.

Waiting to hear what happens to their bid for Mr Green, big news IMO if it goes ahead, should be announced any day now.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

@sancho panza

The value in miners will depend on where you see the gold price going in the next couple of quarters.

The biggest producers have big exposure to SA, and as I mentioned before, SA mining is a low-grade, high-cost excersise. Sibanye, the poster boy for SA gold mining, was mining at a loss in Q3. Those producers are obviously way off their high, but I'd say that some of them should be way lower still. Without the Lonmin distraction, I'd expect Sibanye to be under $2.

Aside from the production costs, most of those companies carry huge debts which will have to be refinanced at some point, and even a decent bull run might not necessarily help alleviate that. I was doing a mental excersise on one of my runs and figured out that with their current production costs and $500 mil of their $900mil debt maturing in 2022, New Gold would need Rainy River producing 250-300k oz p.a. and a gold price around $1600/oz sustained over 3 years to repay it with free cash flow. All the figures are very much finger in the air, obviously, but I think it shows how much debt profile matters.

On the other spectrum you have juniors and explorers, a high risk - high reward play. The likes of Kirkland Lake or Wesdome produce gold at the cost of low $800s so the current gold price is not a problem for them, and their primary price mover are their exploration results (obviously much harder to predict). On the other hand, their leverage to gold price is smaller than it is for bigger players, and while they should benefit from the bull run, I wouldn't expect them to multi-bag.

The problem with many (vast majority?) of juniors is that they are basically scamsters. You'll see the most ridiculous and dishonest news releases, professional pumpsters selling recommendations while on a payroll, manipulated drillings with numerous holes struck into the same high-grade anomaly from various angles, it's jungle out there.

So, if you believe gold bull is around the corner, get some of the biggest producers and take a look at their balance sheets. @DurhamBorn recommended Sibanye and Harmony, and while I think they are both overvalued at the moment, they should still make you plenty happy if gold goes vertical.

Alternatively, if you think gold is range bound for a while but would like to take a wild ride on the junior rollercoaster, then it becomes less about the numbers and more about people. Basically cross out permanently any people and companies involved in any shady games at any point in the past (IKN should help you massively with that) and spread your money across those few that remain. Unfortunatelly, some good ones like Atlantic Gold or Superior Gold are not traded by UK brokers, so that limits your options even more. WDO, KL, Rio2 are some of the good&available ones, but you'd probably want a much wider spread.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 hours ago, spygirl said:

Ive mentioned that the US labour market is red hot, either this thread or another.

Retail may be dead, but the rest is going nuts.

An article confirming what ive been hearing, mainly in software and other product industrial work.

Its cyclical, coming back from 15 years slack, its the retreat of china, its a large number of people removed ftom labour market due to opiod abuse, its a big Fuck you from joe woeker whos had to put up with employer shit for ages

https://www.houstonchronicle.com/business/article/In-booming-job-market-workers-are-leaving-their-13460311.php

Basically people are starting new jobs and not telling the old place. They dont care. Maybe they get two salaries, msybe the employer wont notice. Who knows, but fuck you old employee.

Im impressed.

 

Fascinating piece.For a while I've floated the possibilitiy that we could get a credit deflation at the same time as we get price inflation.labour input costs are a huge determinant of inflation and those figures from the US are staggering re ghosting.I'm often known to walk shops and watch tills,look at shelves for redcutions etc etc,to get a real idea of where a shops retail operation is.Reality can be hidden in corporate accounts.Hence why I shorted WH Smith and will do again.

Whilst this is anecdotal,the source is MSM and it reflects what's ahappening where the economy is hot.

In short,if this retracement from China/India is sustained,we can expect price inflation and maybe a restriction in the feds room for manouvre.

14 hours ago, Majorpain said:

@sancho panza

Whilst i dont want to talk my book, Hochschild on the LSE is one of my favorites.  Chairman holds c. 50% of the shares so has real skin in the game and so it actually delivers some shareholder value.  Risk reward was good enough that i bought in around the current price anyway!

Ive tried to get a mix of companies i like with either good fundamentals like Hoc, Fres or Paas with good exposure to the PM price with less of a risk, mixed in with Sibanye and Harmony with potentially PAF (lse) in the future for mad gainz.  Those ranked the highest in my calculations of total resources to market cap, priced for bankruptcy at $1200 an oz but moonshot if it goes $1400+ and they can mine those deep reserves at a profit.  Goldfields which you have already is in a similar boat, 60m oz of gold in SA but at $1700 oz cost.

I suspect the next big mover will be the Fed meeting in December (if they pause things will be interesting dollar wise at the very least) so there is plenty of time for decision making.  Ill make a decision on Yamana in January rather than following buy high sell low PI sentiment, there is nothing particular wrong with the operations, the only issue is that a lot of the value is already in the shareprice so there is limited upside IMO.  The only company i found which had a worse ratio was Barrick...

There is something to be said for DB's shotgun approach, much less effort researching and keeping an eye on things!  Time is money and DYOR as always.

Really appreciate your input MP.

On reflection,my first tranche was jsut pure spray n pray and it was done without any real understanding of the industry.Back in teh millenium-remember those innocent days-I invested in a wide range of miners including De Beers/Gencor/AAL/BLT/Broken Hill Prop etc etc and got away with it.I tried the same again with the goldies and got totally exposed for conflating the PM miners with the broader mining complex.I overloaded on Barrick/Goldcorpse,had no real idea of the risk I was running with my two smallest purchases-New Gold/Eldorado.The rest have done what I hoped they would.

I'm in the space because I think gold will flatline at a minimum over five years.There's a decent chance it will moonshoot imho and so am looking to position the bulk in stable(I use the word advisedly) frims and then positioned so the rest can help if we get the exponential phase.

This is going to sound funny to you but teh PM miner space is beginning to feel to me like the tech stocks did in the mid to late 90's.Some 'wiseheads' I know are talking about it, while most of the people I know who have no understanding of risk are talking up BTL.I'm not as bright as many on here but I've learned that certain indicators are reliable.I

 

Thanks for the heads up on Hochschild.I've done some really basic market cap/revenue assessments to find where the moonshoot value will be and the SA miners are big winners-although it's worth noting they all have operations all over the place.As you say though,it's working otu who'll be in business still that can be the real issue.

13 hours ago, A_P said:

But surely see-sawing isn't all that bad for passive investors. Regular investing, re-investing of dividends etc etc. What's been the return for people that have passively invested in the FTSE all these years?

So does that now mean you're not in/or planning to buy the vanguard value/income trackers that you mentioned a while ago?

Ftse is flat over 20 years.Passive investors have made divis less costs.Not great given average ftse divi is normally about 3% over time and ETF's(I'm no expert) normally run at circa 0.6%

 

3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I used to manage a shop and last year spoke to someone who still does and he told me his shop now took more from the FOBTs than it did over the counter. When I worked there, the shops were social hubs, you knew what time each oldtimer was going to come in and which seat they were going to take for the afternoon. These people haven't been replaced because the younger ones are net/mobile users. There's going to be a lot of shop closures, maybe partly to try lobby for the stake increasing again. The thing is though, shares often go up on bad news like people losing their jobs because it's cutting costs. Money moving from shops to online might increase profit margins and the US ruling is a biggie. 

I noticed a huge expansion of High St bookies a few years back,I presume to maximise the FOBT income. I read variously that a lot of it was money laundering,was that a fair claim?

It's like traditional TV/Newspapers,structural shifts are occuring in how people game.

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

@sancho panza

The value in miners will depend on where you see the gold price going in the next couple of quarters.

The biggest producers have big exposure to SA, and as I mentioned before, SA mining is a low-grade, high-cost excersise. Sibanye, the poster boy for SA gold mining, was mining at a loss in Q3. Those producers are obviously way off their high, but I'd say that some of them should be way lower still. Without the Lonmin distraction, I'd expect Sibanye to be under $2.

Aside from the production costs, most of those companies carry huge debts which will have to be refinanced at some point, and even a decent bull run might not necessarily help alleviate that. I was doing a mental excersise on one of my runs and figured out that with their current production costs and $500 mil of their $900mil debt maturing in 2022, New Gold would need Rainy River producing 250-300k oz p.a. and a gold price around $1600/oz sustained over 3 years to repay it with free cash flow. All the figures are very much finger in the air, obviously, but I think it shows how much debt profile matters.

On the other spectrum you have juniors and explorers, a high risk - high reward play. The likes of Kirkland Lake or Wesdome produce gold at the cost of low $800s so the current gold price is not a problem for them, and their primary price mover are their exploration results (obviously much harder to predict). On the other hand, their leverage to gold price is smaller than it is for bigger players, and while they should benefit from the bull run, I wouldn't expect them to multi-bag.

The problem with many (vast majority?) of juniors is that they are basically scamsters. You'll see the most ridiculous and dishonest news releases, professional pumpsters selling recommendations while on a payroll, manipulated drillings with numerous holes struck into the same high-grade anomaly from various angles, it's jungle out there.

So, if you believe gold bull is around the corner, get some of the biggest producers and take a look at their balance sheets. @DurhamBorn recommended Sibanye and Harmony, and while I think they are both overvalued at the moment, they should still make you plenty happy if gold goes vertical.

Alternatively, if you think gold is range bound for a while but would like to take a wild ride on the junior rollercoaster, then it becomes less about the numbers and more about people. Basically cross out permanently any people and companies involved in any shady games at any point in the past (IKN should help you massively with that) and spread your money across those few that remain. Unfortunatelly, some good ones like Atlantic Gold or Superior Gold are not traded by UK brokers, so that limits your options even more. WDO, KL, Rio2 are some of the good&available ones, but you'd probably want a much wider spread.

Thanks for the broad and detailed reply.

My predcitions/positioning as I said to MP are for  flatlining for a few years followed by a central bank inspired moonshoot possibility at an unspecified date in the future.I'll be positioning other bits of portfolio for income from big Oil/Pharma/utilities/telecoms.But the goldies are the next potential bubble imo.A lot dfepends on how the CB's deal with the deflation that comes as @Majorpain alluded.

As I've said,it takes a lot of study and understanding to ivnest well in this sector and even then,things can go wrong.IKN and the other blogs/twitter a/cs you referred me to have been a great help-if anything they've shown me that you need to really do your research before investing in this sector.For once in my life I'm actually pondering buying the ETF's but as I was saying to MP,if this is Tech Bubble 2 then I want to buy the potential multi baggers now,before anyone else has heard of them.And then I'll sell them when my mate Jim's Mrs is telling me to buy them.(She's the best invesment timing mechanism I've ever known for the seismic swings,been tipping BTL for two years-post section 24)

So yes,I'm in that range bound camp for now but I'm getting more and more interested in the explorer co's.Strangely,my SA investments are up and my supposedly safer Goldcorpse/barrick trades are down and slightly down.

Given I'm spraying n praying,I'll add Hochschild to list 1,slightly reduce my weighting in Sib/HMY,use that to buy some Alamos,then add Rio2/Superior to my number 2 Tiny tot list.If I can buy them through my Broker then i'll PM you.

Tranche 3 will hopfully be purcahsed for pennies at the bottom of a vicious bear market.

 

As ever,anyone reading this chat,please DYOR>know your risk profile.

 

 

Looking to add

1) Decent size producers/Companies.

Kinross/Sibanye/Harmony/Sandstorm/B2G/Hecla/Coeur/PAAS

Querying Alamos-they seem beat down

 

 

2) Smaller players

Alexco/Atico/Intergra/Regulus/Amergio/Tinka

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Ftse is flat over 20 years.Passive investors have made divis less costs.Not great given average ftse divi is normally about 3% over time and ETF's(I'm no expert) normally run at circa 0.6%

More like 0.06% and divis 4%+. Like I said previously over 20 years someone would be looking at 130% growth with an intial £1000 invested and reinvesting the divis.  Personally I don't think that's to be sniffed at if in it for the long haul given the powers of compounding. Each to their own though.

Now I'm not saying stock picking isn't the thing to do going forward. But for most can they honestly expect to out perform the above consistantly? I'm not convinced. Now if you want massive gains then yeah don't bother. But I thought this thread was about protecting wealth and coming out the other side? If you want to go big or go home then open a robinhood account and peruse wallstreetbets on reddit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
25 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I noticed a huge expansion of High St bookies a few years back,I presume to maximise the FOBT income. I read variously that a lot of it was money laundering,was that a fair claim?

 

When I started working there we would have shut at 4:45pm on a day like today now with deregulation they are open until 9:30pm in a lot of shops and they also have Sunday opening. The hope was to attract new younger gamblers outside working hours. Then the FOBTs came in after I left to take advantage of the extra opening hours.

The margins on the traditional over the counter betting must be worse and that's why punters have their stakes resticted so much. Why risk losing money to a clued up punter when the machines are raking it in? The head office number crunchers are in charge now and I'm ashamed to say I wrote the software they use :(

There's a reason why lots of deprived areas have a lot of shops. No doubt dodgy money be cleaned, that cannot go through crooks/doleys bank accounts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

On reflection,my first tranche was jsut pure spray n pray and it was done without any real understanding of the industry.Back in teh millenium-remember those innocent days-I invested in a wide range of miners including De Beers/Gencor/AAL/BLT/Broken Hill Prop etc etc and got away with it.I tried the same again with the goldies and got totally exposed for conflating the PM miners with the broader mining complex.I overloaded on Barrick/Goldcorpse,had no real idea of the risk I was running with my two smallest purchases-New Gold/Eldorado.The rest have done what I hoped they would. 

This is going to sound funny to you but teh PM miner space is beginning to feel to me like the tech stocks did in the mid to late 90's.Some 'wiseheads' I know are talking about it, while most of the people I know who have no understanding of risk are talking up BTL.I'm not as bright as many on here but I've learned that certain indicators are reliable.I

Napoleon didn't want to know if an up and coming general was good, he wanted to know if he was lucky! I treat the stock market like I would a casino, ultimately I hope that this thread will help us stack the deck in our favour, and ive helped add a smidgeon of value to it.

I must admit that I've got that "buy gold" feeling again, it was right last time in 2015 so fingers crossed its right this time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...