Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

reformed nice guy

Merry Christmas one and all. Since this is the time of year to be thankful, I would like to thank everyone in this thread for all of their contributions no matter how big and small.

As an on topic note: US bond yields

 

chart (1).png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
7 minutes ago, Bakez said:

I have a feeling I’m fucked

110k mortgage fixed at 0.9% until June 2020 in northern EU

I think by that time rates will be 4%

I doubt it saying that I’ve just remortgaged and only went for 2 years has the peanalties for overpaying get very silly are you allowed 10% like me before they kick in

Link to comment
Share on other sites

They don’t do it like that here

It’s just a fixed payment for those years and then there’s a fee for any overpayment, like £700 or something 

if you got a 1 year fixed you can overpay whatever u want at the end of each year

Interest rates have actually decreased since I’ve bought in 2015

A 1-3 year fixed now is 0.7%

Link to comment
Share on other sites

42 minutes ago, Bakez said:

I have a feeling I’m fucked

110k mortgage fixed at 0.9% until June 2020 in northern EU

I think by that time rates will be 4%

I think you'll be alright, higher rates might start showing up after then but no doubt they'll do everything to keep mortgage lending fluid in the crisis

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I just realised how these few year fixed are sort of a scam

the bank advisor told me either get a 1 year fixed or go to another bank and get 25-30 years which his bank didn’t offer. Max he offered was 10 and he said he would never agree to it and tell someone to go to another bank with the full term fixed. In hindsight he was right. With these 4-5 years you have no flexibility and feel trapped without much security

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
On 23/12/2018 at 11:25, DurhamBorn said:

Others would say in one go,but i like to stair case in slowly.I would say £500 a month is a very nice way to do this,or maybe even £300.Id also maybe look to add the odd miner as well,even if again just holding 6 with £500 in each.For myself i have roughly 20% of net worth outside of my house in PM miners and silver.17% of that is in miners.I wouldnt go outside my rules on my portfolio,but as i wanted more miners i decided to go back to work and save 100% of the salary into more miners each month.That was a big choice for me as i had pretty much retired.I count it outside my portfolio and figure il lose a years labour (if the work lasts that long before a crash)or maybe make an amount i could really enjoy.I always think life is a pay off,and whatever happens i think long term silver is a bargain at these prices.I look at it like this.Even someone on a lower paid job can put away £2k-£3k in silver and forget about it.If it does run to $150-$250 at some point its likely other assets (like houses) are in big trouble.That £2k of silver might turn into half a house,or a nice little dividend portfolio.

As always everyone had to DYOR and do whats best for their personal finances etc.

Thank you for the reply.

Its very interesting that smaller amounts as you mention could help set someone up for life, if things turn out as people on the thread think. Younger posters looking to buy a home or older ones looking for a decent income portfolio.

I have decided to up my monthly silver (Bullionvault) investment to £300.(thanks)

I will try my best to research some miners.

Happy Xmas to all who post on here.

Bob.

Disclaimer. Nothing taken as advice just interested in peoples opinions.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
On ‎25‎/‎12‎/‎2018 at 11:14, DurhamBorn said:

Happy xmas everyone.Everything is going to plan.Oil is heading down to $20 (or $15) roadmap had $62 as the top so was out by a few dollars,but great call.$ continues to bounce of the 97 mark as expected.Gold now has bullish patterns in all currencies including at last the Yen and dollar and Renminbi.A bounce in the equity markets is very likely.The key will be if the dollar falls alongside that.If it does gold and the PMs should at last deliver.GDXJ is in the top 98 percentile now of performing funds over the last few months.

The news will blame Trump,Brexit,trade etc etc.None of that is true.The Fed caused the problems and as soon as liquidity started to fall (our liquidity trackers proved almost perfect,we expected a 12 month lag to affects,it was around 14 months) then the rest was certain in such a leveraged system.

The only interesting point now is with Trump acting as he is,will the Fed wait too long to loosen.If so the financial dislocation ahead could be even worse.

What is certain to me is the next cycle.Its a reflation.A bells and whistles one.Good luck to the leveraged with no pricing power in 7 years.

Off to my daughters for lunch,iv got them a lovely xmas present.Silver.

DB if equities bounce would Oil temporarily bounce too

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
On 24/12/2018 at 18:07, Majorpain said:

As its Christmas eve, here is a nice story about how some bankers got their ass handed to them by the market!  No bonus for them this year?

 

I mentioned the Peel Hunt 900 target price on 20th https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/k/kier-group-plc-ordinary-1p/broker-forecasts

Does a lot for their credibility?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

DB if equities bounce would Oil temporarily bounce too

I have no idea.I dont trade oil,but did some work a while ago on the affects of falling liquidity on paper markets etc and some cross market work on likely demand falls.It gave me a $62 top in oil (it went a bit higher than that) then a road map down to $20 (or in a most bearish scenario $15).My road maps are simply that.If i was trading oil id now have a trailing stop loss in place on my short.The only way it affects me is the length of time it stays under $50 etc as the transports will be hedging 5 years out and i expect $200 oil in the next cycle.If the dollar falls to 86 as i expect oil might get a bounce before its final falls.As its not something i trade iv never looked at it since i ran my figures around 14 months ago.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

what about the gold/silver miniing fund i mentioned many pages ago (swreso), cheap to trade, has a lot under 1 umbrella.

https://smithandwilliamson.com/-/media/files/factsheets/may-2018/sw_gold_b.pdf

 

endevour features, doesnt look like any SA.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

I'm currently in 3 gold miners and will at some point add silver exposure at well, so a setup very similar to yours. My current split is: one junior, one medium and one senior.

Wesdome - the best story in junior producers/explorers this year, bar none.

New Gold - a bit risky given their debt burden, but I think it's well worth a punt at this price, with new CEO and CFO in place. After reconfiguring their mill, Rainy River produced 25.5koz in September alone. If they can keep it up, it's a 300koz mine they need it to be. Or they cannot, in which case they go to zero :)

Harmony - for high-AISC South African exposure. I understand the temptation to go with Sibanye instead, but for me there's too many red flags around them. Let's see how they deal with the unions first, and whether they can complete Lonmin takeover.

 

Haven't looked into silver miners yet. I've kept my sights on Tahoe for most of the year, but now it's off the table.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 24/12/2018 at 20:32, DurhamBorn said:

The PMs are getting some wind from the equity problems,but the main reason is the dollar is heading to 86.The Fed is tightening the world into a debt deflation and epic bear market.It will be interesting to see if stocks rally if gold keeps moving higher.

US markets heavily oversold-like a broken record I've been saying that for a week or two.I even hsut my Tesla short.....too early as ever.

On 25/12/2018 at 09:57, Barnsey said:

I tweeted out the following link:

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/section10.htm (10.2)

Got sizeable backlash that it can't happen, then the news broke a day later.

Worth reminding ourselves that the January buyback blackout is the biggest of the year.

With Nikkei down 4.9% overnight, the contagion effect is clear for all to see, a preview of what's to come.

 

Some interesing follow through in the far east

4 hours ago, Barnsey said:

By far the best pressie I got was the following book:

https://wordery.com/the-end-of-indexing-niels-jensen-9780857195494

Have mentioned him before on here but would highly recommend picking this up to give you some more food for thought on the end of the debt supercycle, very much ties in with what we've discussed on here, 10/10 

Cheers for the heads up Barnsey.I'll have a butchers

32 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

Having spent ages on this thread and elsewhere saying don't bother with ETF's,with the goldies,I wish I'd started out with thatI've taken some big hosings in Eldorado and New Gold.It only takes one bad performer to put you off them if there's a dip.

Ergo,even though I don't own any check out HUI/GDX-have a feeling someone mentioned you can't buy them in the UK..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

30 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

i also quite like the pyhsical ETC's like physical silver/gold (eg invesco SSLV/SGLD), think they do paladium and some others as well. Ive been in and out of them, not had any liquidity issues, think theres others if you dont like invesco.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

I'm currently in 3 gold miners and will at some point add silver exposure at well, so a setup very similar to yours. My current split is: one junior, one medium and one senior.

Wesdome - the best story in junior producers/explorers this year, bar none.

New Gold - a bit risky given their debt burden, but I think it's well worth a punt at this price, with new CEO and CFO in place. After reconfiguring their mill, Rainy River produced 25.5koz in September alone. If they can keep it up, it's a 300koz mine they need it to be. Or they cannot, in which case they go to zero :)

Harmony - for high-AISC South African exposure. I understand the temptation to go with Sibanye instead, but for me there's too many red flags around them. Let's see how they deal with the unions first, and whether they can complete Lonmin takeover.

 

Haven't looked into silver miners yet. I've kept my sights on Tahoe for most of the year, but now it's off the table.

A persuasive line of argument for me to  average down Kibuc..

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
36 minutes ago, Durabo said:

I only have the cash to buy three or four miners. Would it be best to spread them around locations e.g SA, North/South America? Does it make sense to throw in a silver miner (e.g Endeavour) too based on potential green energy requirements for Silver? I've got a lot less to play with than most here but i still want to play!

If you had to pick 4 of the miners, who would you pick and why? So far I'm set on Endeavour for the reasons outlined above, and also Sibanye as they mine a lot of additional minerals e.g palladium. I'm happy to be told I'm wrong, just looking for opinions to help me do my own research!

Im only going off stuff mentioned on this thread but,

Harmony

Anglogold

Yamana

Sibanye

As to why? I have bought these with funds i can afford to lose, no big deal on the downside.

Not advice, etc, etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

A persuasive line of argument for me to  average down Kibuc..

 

You might want to reconsider :) 8 days ago I was fully locked and loaded with WDO, before deciding to spread the risk and swapping for some NGD and HMY. Since then? WDO +10%, HMY & NGD -10% each, fuck my life :D

Hopefully a huge gold bull will come and bail me out.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, kibuc said:

 

You might want to reconsider :) 8 days ago I was fully locked and loaded with WDO, before deciding to spread the risk and swapping for some NGD and HMY. Since then? WDO +10%, HMY & NGD -10% each, fuck my life :D

Hopefully a huge gold bull will come and bail me out.

its geopolitical by the look of it rather than actual underlying metal prices.

Goverment grabbed mines, locals kicking off, unions, strikes, etc etc.

 

Having said that, ive banged a couple of hundred into complete shit, interserve, in case it has a bounce on any good news, and a couple of hundred into crypto again in case it has a bounce(ETH) if both go to shit, well, just blind punting.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anglogold

I'd forgotten about these guys. Mines all over the world, exposure to gold/silver/uranium. They'd be my most expensive share!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, kibuc said:

 

You might want to reconsider :) 8 days ago I was fully locked and loaded with WDO, before deciding to spread the risk and swapping for some NGD and HMY. Since then? WDO +10%, HMY & NGD -10% each, fuck my life :D

Hopefully a huge gold bull will come and bail me out.

Tranche 1 I was shooting from the hip a bit,I bought a spread of shares I thought that was adeqaute and gave me a decent spread of risk,but this isn't big oil/pharam we're dealing with as I learned to my cost.Tranche 2 has gone better as per discussion a couple of weeks back with you DB and Majorpain,I've srayed and prayed much more widely and thinly.You live and learn.

I'm holding these very long term.I re member the tech bubble and watching some shares drop 70% plus before multi bagging.This is beginning to feel eerily familair to those times

WDO do look compelling but my record is patchy:ph34r:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...