Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.

[DurhamBorn]

@sancho panza i forgot about the fact the money goes up in smoke if he doesnt transfer,but once in a SIPP its a family asset,and as long as the SIPP isnt put into drawdown even stays outside of Inheritance tax.I though maybe 20% gold/silver,20% treasuries and 60% in 20 UK defensive/value/divi payers.Problem i have is HL only allow a transfer if a IFA says to transfer,if they say dont transfer HL wont accept,even though the law says you just have to have advice,not accept that advice.Im going to phone AJ Bell and see if they will accept even if advice is no.I could then get it into A J Bell,then do a SIPP transfer to HL.Im getting a bit miffed with HL lately and their hoop jumping.

[Thorn]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza i forgot about the fact the money goes up in smoke if he doesnt transfer,but once in a SIPP its a family asset,and as long as the SIPP isnt put into drawdown even stays outside of Inheritance tax.I though maybe 20% gold/silver,20% treasuries and 60% in 20 UK defensive/value/divi payers.Problem i have is HL only allow a transfer if a IFA says to transfer,if they say dont transfer HL wont accept,even though the law says you just have to have advice,not accept that advice.Im going to phone AJ Bell and see if they will accept even if advice is no.I could then get it into A J Bell,then do a SIPP transfer to HL.Im getting a bit miffed with HL lately and their hoop jumping.

DB what do you think of Stage Analysis 

[Viceroy]

Happy New Year everyone!

Snippets from Armstrong (bold is mine)..

“ ..It still appears that we are NOT in store for a major correction in the US share market. The support will come from the dollar and the chaos in Europe that will get worse over the next two years. When we look at the Dow in terms of Euro, we can see why the Dow has held its ground defying the domestic analysts who have been constantly calling for the crash of all times.

As I have been warning that after 8 years up, normally there should be some sort of a correction. This high in 2018 was also 51.6 years from the 1966 Crash and 86 years from the 1932 low. Ideally, the low intraday would form on March 14th, 2019. That would also be a 5 month correction. As prices unfold in the weeks ahead, the short-term cycles may disagree with that "ideal" target.

 

Those who are calling for a collapse in the US share market with a 40%+ decline down to the 15000 or 16000 level does not seem plausible. That would require the traditional flight to quality being the bond market. We do not see that as a high probability and the worse case scenario would be 17200 zone and that would still hold all FOUR Monthly Bearish Reversals. Even the Quarterly Bearish Reversal lies at 20375 area once again reflecting the critical level of support.

Once we have the closing for 2018, the computer will then be able to create the Array for 2019 on the monthly level. So far, it appears that the bulk of the chaotic price movement will come during the first quarter 2019.

It appears the turn in the ECM in January 2020 will most likely reflect a shift in capital flows from Public to Private assets. Keep in mind that the IMF is still lobbying for countries to adopt cryptocurrencies and eliminate paper money to prevent HOARDING and thus that means it would also be a means to prevent bank runs. The more we keep hearing that directive, the alternation will be more akin to barter - meaning people will turn to private assets as a whole. That is when the Dow and gold align.

Keep in mind that we have just one year left before the ECM turns and that should mark the start of a commodity rally (Jan 2020) implying that the Monetary Crisis Cycle that is targeting 2020/2021 will involve a collapse in confidence in government for the more broader perspective.

We have the May Parliamentary elections in the EU that are showing a sharp rise in anti-EU factions. 

We also have the March BREXIT event, and then we have the Democrats hell bent on undermining the confidence in the Trump Administration to retake the White House in 2020. Trump's tweets only undermine him at this stage and he really should not attack every person who leaves. So he is undermining his own position as well. All of this is contributing to the decline in confidence in government while we have a rise in political warfare with zero chance of both sides ever working together. Thus, we have a meltdown in government. Once these things begin to materialize, then we will see the flip to the upside. We CANNOT rule out that that event will not come until the ECM turns in January 2020.”

So it looks like a stock and commodity rally as the flight to safety starts 2020, once confidence in Governments is shattered.  Consolidation and buy the dips in US equities until then. 

Buy the dip 14 March?!? Let’s wait n see...

[Noallegiance]

DOW Futures nosedive over 400 points. China PMI contracted at 49.7 in December from 50.2 in November.

Good start!

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

DOW Futures nosedive over 400 points. China PMI contracted at 49.7 in December from 50.2 in November.

Good start!

I love leads and lags.As soon as western liquidity goes down that PMI number was certain 12+ months later,and its likely a lot worse than they put out.China is no longer low cost.Lots of work will be,and is coming back west.Its one of the reasons they will double down on the one belt one road project in the reflation.Gold is up again today.There are no big jumps,just a steady increase.

[Democorruptcy]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@sancho panza i forgot about the fact the money goes up in smoke if he doesnt transfer,but once in a SIPP its a family asset,and as long as the SIPP isnt put into drawdown even stays outside of Inheritance tax.I though maybe 20% gold/silver,20% treasuries and 60% in 20 UK defensive/value/divi payers.Problem i have is HL only allow a transfer if a IFA says to transfer,if they say dont transfer HL wont accept,even though the law says you just have to have advice,not accept that advice.Im going to phone AJ Bell and see if they will accept even if advice is no.I could then get it into A J Bell,then do a SIPP transfer to HL.Im getting a bit miffed with HL lately and their hoop jumping.

In 2018 AJ Bell told me they accept transfers in even if advice is against it. In the end I didn't move the pension. I couldn't find an IFA prepared to do the advice unless I moved it to their own fund management. I made the mistake of telling them what I wanted to do with it before they gave their advice. Might be better to play along as if moving it to them then have a last minute change of mind.

[DurhamBorn]

34 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

In 2018 AJ Bell told me they accept transfers in even if advice is against it. In the end I didn't move the pension. I couldn't find an IFA prepared to do the advice unless I moved it to their own fund management. I made the mistake of telling them what I wanted to do with it before they gave their advice. Might be better to play along as if moving it to them then have a last minute change of mind.

Thanks for the advice.I thought about going through HL advice maybe and if it came back a no then use the fact id taken advice to then transfer to AJ Bell.The whole thing is crazy really.I fully agree advice should be taken as that will cut down on people being scammed or who have no experience,but like you say it seems very few want to give the advice.My cousin is an IFA,but they are high end,though he might know some who will do it.Think i will try HL first and see how much they charge for advice once iv confirmed if AJ Bell still accept transfers even if advice was no.

[Barnsey]

8 hours ago, Viceroy said:

Those who are calling for a collapse in the US share market with a 40%+ decline down to the 15000 or 16000 level does not seem plausible. That would require the traditional flight to quality being the bond market. We do not see that as a high probability and the worse case scenario would be 17200 zone and that would still hold all FOUR Monthly Bearish Reversals. Even the Quarterly Bearish Reversal lies at 20375 area once again reflecting the critical level of support.

Once we have the closing for 2018, the computer will then be able to create the Array for 2019 on the monthly level. So far, it appears that the bulk of the chaotic price movement will come during the first quarter 2019.

It appears the turn in the ECM in January 2020 will most likely reflect a shift in capital flows from Public to Private assets. Keep in mind that the IMF is still lobbying for countries to adopt cryptocurrencies and eliminate paper money to prevent HOARDING and thus that means it would also be a means to prevent bank runs. The more we keep hearing that directive, the alternation will be more akin to barter - meaning people will turn to private assets as a whole. That is when the Dow and gold align.

Keep in mind that we have just one year left before the ECM turns and that should mark the start of a commodity rally (Jan 2020) implying that the Monetary Crisis Cycle that is targeting 2020/2021 will involve a collapse in confidence in government for the more broader perspective.

We have the May Parliamentary elections in the EU that are showing a sharp rise in anti-EU factions. 

We also have the March BREXIT event, and then we have the Democrats hell bent on undermining the confidence in the Trump Administration to retake the White House in 2020. Trump's tweets only undermine him at this stage and he really should not attack every person who leaves. So he is undermining his own position as well. All of this is contributing to the decline in confidence in government while we have a rise in political warfare with zero chance of both sides ever working together. Thus, we have a meltdown in government. Once these things begin to materialize, then we will see the flip to the upside. We CANNOT rule out that that event will not come until the ECM turns in January 2020.”

So it looks like a stock and commodity rally as the flight to safety starts 2020, once confidence in Governments is shattered.  Consolidation and buy the dips in US equities until then. 

Buy the dip 14 March?!? Let’s wait n see...

Interesting take, certainly not what I'm expecting but food for thought! Stock rally as Global recession really gets going???

FWIW, i'm expecting either a black swan sharp fall spring/summer, or, some kind of relief bounce triggered by progress on U.S./China trade talks and positive Brexit progress, followed by a drop, then a further rally supported by Fed policy reversal into New Year 2020 when the real drops come into play as recession confirmed for many countries Worldwide. Elliott wave (if you're a believer).

[Don Coglione]

On 27/07/2018 at 10:18, Solzhenitsyn said:

Just took a look to see how my Infrastrata investment was getting along. Doing very nicely. Strong chart. up 176% since I flagged in over on the other site. Just a shame I only allow myself to put a maximum of 1% of my portfolio in any of these AIM minnows. Hope some of you are making money on this too.

Solzhenitsyn, I owe you a beer...

[kibuc]

Was just about to post that. Take a bow, @Solzhenitsyn

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, kibuc said:

Was just about to post that. Take a bow, @Solzhenitsyn

Yep fantastic.Very nice to see some of you increase your capital like that,great call.Even better when so many other bargains are starting to appear.Onwards and upwards.

 

[Democorruptcy]

24 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Thanks for the advice.I thought about going through HL advice maybe and if it came back a no then use the fact id taken advice to then transfer to AJ Bell.The whole thing is crazy really.I fully agree advice should be taken as that will cut down on people being scammed or who have no experience,but like you say it seems very few want to give the advice.My cousin is an IFA,but they are high end,though he might know some who will do it.Think i will try HL first and see how much they charge for advice once iv confirmed if AJ Bell still accept transfers even if advice was no.

I know you like HL and I have accounts there but I definitely wouldn't use them for pension advice. I sounded them out about whether they would let me move mine there and it didn't look good. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/i-was-forced-to-waste-1k-on-advice-when-all-i-wanted-was-to-move1/

[DurhamBorn]

Just now, Democorruptcy said:

I know you like HL and I have accounts there but I definitely wouldn't use them for pension advice. I sounded them out about whether they would let me move mine there and it didn't look good. 

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/i-was-forced-to-waste-1k-on-advice-when-all-i-wanted-was-to-move1/

Yes they dont seem to fancy taking transfers from DB pensions.They likely worry about miss selling problems in the future.Il have to ring them all next week and see how the land lies.Its crazy really because if AJ bell accept,you can simply move it there,then do a SIPP transfer somewhere else.My cousin mentioned before they dont touch them unless its a very large amount,or for a client who already has millions through them.If Bell do accept though its just a case of finding an IFA to to say you have had advice.We should maybe open a thread on this as it might be useful for people going forward to share knowledge.

[Don Coglione]

25 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yep fantastic.Very nice to see some of you increase your capital like that,great call.Even better when so many other bargains are starting to appear.Onwards and upwards.

 

DurhamBorn, I also owe you a beer, for giving me the impetus to get out of pure cash holdings, after following your original thread on hpc.

[DoINeedOne]

1 minute ago, Ponty Mython said:

DurhamBorn, I also owe you a beer, for giving me the impetus to get out of pure cash holdings, after following your original thread on hpc.

Make that 2 

[Solzhenitsyn]

53 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

Solzhenitsyn, I owe you a beer...

Glad to see people making money. Sitting on a gain of over 400% on these now. Even though the amount I invested is less than 1% of portfolio, this stock alone has offset falls in many other much larger investments. 

Not that I’ll be selling. It’s an all or nothing stock for me.

 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

31 minutes ago, Ponty Mython said:

DurhamBorn, I also owe you a beer, for giving me the impetus to get out of pure cash holdings, after following your original thread on hpc.

Me too. Was so clueless before reading TOS and DB's thread in particular 

[Shatner's Bassoon]

1 hour ago, Solzhenitsyn said:

Glad to see people making money. Sitting on a gain of over 400% on these now. Even though the amount I invested is less than 1% of portfolio, this stock alone has offset falls in many other much larger investments. 

Not that I’ll be selling. It’s an all or nothing stock for me.

 

I also owe you one. First time I've seen a 100% gain before and has single-handedly rescued my ailing portfolio. After years of pitiful interest on my savings, it seems unreal. 

And again thanks to DB for setting up this thread and sharing so much knowledge - it could be quietly life-changing for a lot of us. 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes they dont seem to fancy taking transfers from DB pensions.They likely worry about miss selling problems in the future.Il have to ring them all next week and see how the land lies.Its crazy really because if AJ bell accept,you can simply move it there,then do a SIPP transfer somewhere else.My cousin mentioned before they dont touch them unless its a very large amount,or for a client who already has millions through them.If Bell do accept though its just a case of finding an IFA to to say you have had advice.We should maybe open a thread on this as it might be useful for people going forward to share knowledge.

Yes, they are all scared of mis-selling and a lot won't be interested unless it's a large amount. Last year mine was just over £100k but that was flat out refused by several, not worth the hassle involved. If your cousin is an IFA, can't you get them to do a minimal job and you sign a waiver about no mis-selling claims?

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Yes, they are all scared of mis-selling and a lot won't be interested unless it's a large amount. Last year mine was just over £100k but that was flat out refused by several, not worth the hassle involved. If your cousin is an IFA, can't you get them to do a minimal job and you sign a waiver about no mis-selling claims?

 

 

This one if for £130k.Yes i think il ask my cousin and see what he says.Iv just spoke to HL and they want £1.5k to say no and wont accept a transfer without a yes.AJ Bell have said they will accept a transfer and dont care if advice is yes or no as long as taken.

[Democorruptcy]

Aye, that's the £1.5k I was trying to save you. Tell your cousin there could a lot of business in it, there must be lots of people who would sign a waiver* to cut advice costs, special rate for dosbodders?

*This is not financial advice DYOR about the pro(fessional) cons

[Errol]

Anyone else unable to trade Barrick today? I know they are changing the ticker to GOLD, but I can't find GOLD or ABX on ii.

[Shatner's Bassoon]

24 minutes ago, Errol said:

Anyone else unable to trade Barrick today? I know they are changing the ticker to GOLD, but I can't find GOLD or ABX on ii.

I've got some Randgold still showing in my HL portfolio - the last trading day for that was 28th December. Am assuming it'll be replaced with new Barrick shares in the next day or two.

[Errol]

My long term target for Barrick is $200.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Errol said:

My long term target for Barrick is $200.

Giving them away cheap eh ,HL havent even got around to updating Eldorado yet and its up 8% today,the dogs are even barking