Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Massive yes.I also think they will link closer towns with metro lines on a loop.A lot of the routes have been lost over time,but a lot do still exist.In a reflation governments will tend to look at projects good to go asap.Things like HS2 wont be a priority,extending a line a few stops will be.I also think younger people will get a free,or heavily discounted bus pass.They will do everything they can to get velocity of money moving and money moves when people move about.

Lots of free city wide schemes now in place, Tallinn being a good example along with Dunkirk. Luxembourg (country not city) going free as of this summer.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-14/luxembourg-s-free-public-transportation-isn-t-for-everyone

11 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Andy Burnham announced yesterday a two year trial where all 16-18 year olds in Manchester will get an ‘Opportunity Pass’, which is basically a bus pass with maybe some other free stuff too.

Also saw the Sirius thing on Look North (or Calendar, can’t remember which). Tracked there share price for a while but always held off as the engineering always seemed a little pie in the sky but very impressive to see their work to date. Will definitely keep an eye on it.

Thanks for highlighting!

https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/opportunity-pass-manchester-free-bus-15643060

11 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Are you familiar with Ray Dalio's debt cycle explanation? Seems to agree with your outlook on what's happening with the deleveraging and revert back to a Reflation where debt is used to produce more useful things. I hope (and believe) you are right. I'm sick if the madness and can't believe people think I'm the mad one when I say a one bedroom flat isn't worth nearly £200k.

Heres an article on Dalio's take on debt cycles:

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4225374-ray-dalio-debt-cycle-will-end-soon

Stage 1 is the “good” part. People borrow money, but not too much. They use it for productive purposes. This helps the economy grow and lifts asset prices. And that’s where things start going south.

In Stage 2, which Dalio terms the “Bubble,” people look at the recent past and decide asset prices, total demand, and consumption will keep going up. They overconfidently borrow more money and start having too much leverage. 

Stage 3, the “Top,” occurs when central banks, regulators, and sometimes even the lending institutions notice problems. They take measures: raise interest rates, tighten lending standards, and so on.

Stage 4, the “Depression,” happens when growth slows or reverses beyond the ability of monetary and political authorities to help. Yet they keep trying. This is when we see interest rates go to zero or negative. The central bankers are out of bullets at this point. Everyone just has to suffer.

Stage 5 is the deleveraging phase. It is when businesses and families reduce spending to pay down debt and reduce their leverage. It can last a long time. But as leverage falls, people get a handle on their debt service costs and slowly start to recover.

Eventually, the economy reaches Stage 6, normalization, and the cycle repeats.

If the Fed can barely raise above 2.5% without crashing markets (as we saw at end of last year), makes you wonder if the next cycle for the U.S. will go the way of Europe? I certainly hope not.

10 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@UnconventionalWisdom i consider Ray Dalio one of the best investors out there and also Seth Klarman and Howard Marks.They make mistakes of course,but over the long term understand the cycles very well and are well worth following,not for stock picks,but more cycle road maps.

Just picked up Marks' "The Most Important Thing", looking forward to ploughing through. Always enjoy watching his discussions on YouTube.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

As I mentioned a while back now, Steve Eisman of Big Short fame was shorting a couple of UK banks, but had no idea which (guessed Metro might be one). Well turns out he's shorting Lloyds and RBS:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-6538291/The-New-York-fund-Big-Short-investor-set-sights-Lloyds-RBS.html

Quote

The fund has taken out a $3.3million (£2.6million) bet against a host of banks, with Lloyds being one of the largest banking shorts in the fund’s portfolio.

Other banks that have been shorted include US giant Wells Fargo, Spain’s BBVA and Italy’s Unicredit.

The fund reports the positions of many of its fund managers, but is only shorting Lloyds and RBS in the UK.

Hedge funds borrow stock from large, institutional investors and sell it on in the hope that the value of the shares will fall, and then make a profit by buying it back at a lower price.

Eisman’s fund has placed a £260,000 bet against Lloyds, representing 506,900 shares, and a £228,000 wager against RBS, totalling 106,500 shares.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

As I mentioned a while back now, Steve Eisman of Big Short fame was shorting a couple of UK banks, but had no idea which (guessed Metro might be one). Well turns out he's shorting Lloyds and RBS:

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-6538291/The-New-York-fund-Big-Short-investor-set-sights-Lloyds-RBS.html

 

£228k is not much, I could myself open a position of that size with some leverage.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, MrXxx said:

OK, bear with me on this one...with the return of cheap Eastern European labour due to Brexit (or the threat of it) and the cessation of generous UK tax credits, wages are now set to rise, previously these have been kept in check.

The use of subsidized (or even free) public transportation in Northern power house development zones would a) allow politicians to demonstrate that they are doing something for The North, and b) allow their paymasters to continue paying submarket rates of pay...as always the innocent tax payers will get the tab for their increased profits!

My flat mate works in building maintenance. He moved jobs just before Christmas and got himself a 25% pay rise. He doesn’t like the job, so is looking at other opportunities. Currently he’s interviewing for a couple of jobs doing the same thing at hotels which if he gets would be at least another 20% pay rise. There’s definitely a skill shortage in certain fields. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, kibuc said:

To all NGD holder on this board - and I know there's quite a few of you here - I've joined the dark side yesterday and made NGD my biggest holding, and my only gold-price-leverage play (still holding WDO as an exploration play). We're in this boat together now :)

 

I know the maths for NGD and I'm still terrified by it, but with Rainy River finally operating and still improving that's one huge question mark removed from the equation. Now it's simply the case of how much FCF can it generate, and it will be driven mostly by gold price, although some improvements in AISC will surely be possible as well.

 

I think it should provide at least the same amount of leverage to gold price as Sibanye, without the added drama of the Lonmin deal, ongoing strike actions, MPs calling for suspension of licence etc.

 

They should provide their outlook for 2019 probably next week. I'm expecting 300-330koz for RR and 60-70koz for New Afton, for a consolidated 360-400koz and AISC in range of 1050-1150U$. AISC is really a shot in the dark due to Rainy River still being improved, but it's also much more important than the production guidance. Each $50 change in AISC moves free cash flow generation by 18-20mln and boy do they need every cent of it.

 

Anyway, if we're going down, we're going down together :)

Glad to be not alone. Onwards it is and sure you never know with New Gold- just spotted an old director just left. New Gold New Management. 

Another junior thats rising is Westhaven. Gold in the ground not all confirmed just yet though. Seems they’ve flown around a bit near their mines and reported some lava-ey land near them looks like it might also have gold and stuff down in it. Stocks jumped. 

Thats all I’ve been able to dig up so far.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Something that worries me in the short term; given the recent news from Westminster, it appears that there will be a parliamentary majority (400 seats voting in favour) of an almighty Brexit can-kick, with UK remaining in the EU until at least the end of this parliament, then possibly a revocation of A50 after a GE (there won't be a second referendum, that might give the wrong result again).

I would expect sizeable GBP uptick on such news. Could easily be 10, 15%.

Anyone factoring in such an outcome to their trading activity?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, AWW said:

Something that worries me in the short term; given the recent news from Westminster, it appears that there will be a parliamentary majority (400 seats voting in favour) of an almighty Brexit can-kick, with UK remaining in the EU until at least the end of this parliament, then possibly a revocation of A50 after a GE (there won't be a second referendum, that might give the wrong result again).

I would expect sizeable GBP uptick on such news. Could easily be 10, 15%.

Anyone factoring in such an outcome to their trading activity?

What would our parliament look like after the next general election?

would it be riots? Yellow vest movement U.K. 

Would the Tories/Labour be wiped out by protest votes because of the failure of democracy? 

I really can’t see Brexit being swept under the carpet.. Maybe I’m wrong but I think if Brexit is stopped/fudged.. There will be consequences!

The far right has risen across Europe, if they once again ignore the public over the ongoing destruction of our stadards of living, be that because of immigration or from monetary policy people will react.. I’m not totally sure how yet! 

I just feel this could be the last straw for the disenfranchised! No Brexit could be allot worse than Brexit.. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, AWW said:

Something that worries me in the short term; given the recent news from Westminster, it appears that there will be a parliamentary majority (400 seats voting in favour) of an almighty Brexit can-kick, with UK remaining in the EU until at least the end of this parliament, then possibly a revocation of A50 after a GE (there won't be a second referendum, that might give the wrong result again).

I would expect sizeable GBP uptick on such news. Could easily be 10, 15%.

Anyone factoring in such an outcome to their trading activity?

I fully expected this would be the case all along. in fact my friend text me yesterday simply ‘you were right!’ It was never meant to happen.  

The Yellow vest movement would certainly gain momentum over here (from the sporadic protests here at the moment). Most of the discontent would not be among the London populace obviously, but you can imagine the London suburbs joining in to loot JD sports. 

As far as Sterling/FTSE/house prices, everything up (for a short period). I hate to quote movies but as I was watching the lego movie with my daughter the other day ‘Everything is awesome!’. No matter that retail  is bust, the populace is in debt to it’s eyeballs and younger generation are paying half million for shoeboxes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

F**king Flybe, sold us out for 1p a share, to think I was going to sell last night for 16p. Well we all have to learn at some point to follow Buffett's advice a little more religiously! Still an absolute con job though. Previous rejected bid was at 40p, and last night's news suggested 9p which at the time I was furious about. Never too early for a drink methinks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, macca said:

What would our parliament look like after the next general election?

would it be riots? Yellow vest movement U.K. 

Would the Tories/Labour be wiped out by protest votes because of the failure of democracy? 

I really can’t see Brexit being swept under the carpet.. Maybe I’m wrong but I think if Brexit is stopped/fudged.. There will be consequences!

The far right has risen across Europe, if they once again ignore the public over the ongoing destruction of our stadards of living, be that because of immigration or from monetary policy people will react.. I’m not totally sure how yet! 

I just feel this could be the last straw for the disenfranchised! No Brexit could be allot worse than Brexit.. 

Agrred.

We are having Brexit. I vote remain by the way.

The numbers against Europe - for avrious reasons -are just too hgih.

If they wanted to thrwat Brexit they should have set a 60% hurdgel on he vote.

But i doubt that would have sorted thigns.

51% voted out. Thats too high a margin to stay in.

UK pols had 30 years chanceto make UK-EU work.  And it was up til about 2004 when Brown/Blair started.

Again, if it was not for Brons tax  credits and Balirs showing off by letting EErs in then there would have not been a Brexit.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

F**king Flybe, sold us out for 1p a share, to think I was going to sell last night for 16p. Well we all have to learn at some point to follow Buffett's advice a little more religiously! Still an absolute con job though. Previous rejected bid was at 40p, and last night's news suggested 9p which at the time I was furious about. Never too early for a drink methinks!

I'll just add, be very careful when looking at asset value, Flybe NAV per share was at 50p+, and yet I'm getting robbed at 1p a share. I would have hoped to get something in the middle which is why I held on so long, nothing to suggest this would have happened, then BAM!

@DurhamBorn method of selling when 20% up would have served me well. Granted, the aviation sector is quite risky, but debt does indeed seem to rule over everything else, however logical your thought process may be.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

A lot of talk all over the place about what Jeff Bezos divorce will do to Amazon if 50% gets awarded to his wife. Some unkind people are recalling Enron where Lou Pai cashed out and transferred all the money to his ex wife just before everything collapsed. Under normal circumstances he would have been done for insider trading, but he could truthfully say "the court made me do it."

Obviously no suggestion at all that there's any similarity. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I'll just add, be very careful when looking at asset value, Flybe NAV per share was at 50p+, and yet I'm getting robbed at 1p a share. I would have hoped to get something in the middle which is why I held on so long, nothing to suggest this would have happened, then BAM!

@DurhamBorn method of selling when 20% up would have served me well. Granted, the aviation sector is quite risky, but debt does indeed seem to rule over everything else, however logical your thought process may be.

Looks like they have literally run out of cash due to the Credit Card companies requiring more collateral, seems a tad odd that they have loads of "assets" on the balance sheet but they are still deemed a bigger risk?  Unless the insurers know something we don't and are pricing those assets at what people will pay for them, in say, 6 months? (£0)

Quote

 

After making appropriate enquiries and considering the assumptions and uncertainties described

above, the Directors consider that it is appropriate to adopt the going concern basis in preparing the

consolidated financial statements. Accordingly, the financial statements do not include any adjustments

which would be required if the going concern basis of preparation were deemed to be inappropriate.

If the Group’s card acquirers were to choose to seek significantly higher cash collateral and the Group

cannot access sufficient additional liquidity, this would give rise to a material uncertainty which may cast

significant doubt about the Group’s ability to continue as a going concern.

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

F**king Flybe, sold us out for 1p a share, to think I was going to sell last night for 16p. Well we all have to learn at some point to follow Buffett's advice a little more religiously! Still an absolute con job though. Previous rejected bid was at 40p, and last night's news suggested 9p which at the time I was furious about. Never too early for a drink methinks!

I don't want to come over all like your mum, but I'm worried about the company you keep!

1 hour ago, Funn3r said:

A lot of talk all over the place about what Jeff Bezos divorce will do to Amazon if 50% gets awarded to his wife. Some unkind people are recalling Enron where Lou Pai cashed out and transferred all the money to his ex wife just before everything collapsed. Under normal circumstances he would have been done for insider trading, but he could truthfully say "the court made me do it."

Obviously no suggestion at all that there's any similarity. 

I've heard of timing the markets but your divorce?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

Looks like they have literally run out of cash due to the Credit Card companies requiring more collateral, seems a tad odd that they have loads of "assets" on the balance sheet but they are still deemed a bigger risk?  Unless the insurers know something we don't and are pricing those assets at what people will pay for them, in say, 6 months? (£0)

Not that they're bust but reminds me how watching an accountant liquidator go through the books, especially the alledged assets, is something to behold!  Wields a pen like a 1700's sailor with cut throat razor down Plymouth docks!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Hate times like this.  Only back to work today, looking to get back on the horse, and the markets are just where you don't want them to be.

Should have spent a little time on it after Christmas.  Oh what to do?

Money to invest in good div companies and their weekly technicals are mostly looking good, but the buy signals were back at year end.

So I look to the FTSE100 overall for context and its hitting resistance while the shorts are beginning to turn up.

Worse, we could see a repeat of 2015/16 with another downleg coming, or not!

Capture.thumb.PNG.9a977fab391f2b9b46cf0a1eb069c98a.PNG

Think I'll wait until today's weekly close and dribble a bit in on (hopefully not black) Monday!

Oh well, at least I can hug my October PM purchases in the interim! 

Or should that be have a nice tea in their possible very long term cup and saucer chart pattern!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
6 hours ago, Barnsey said:

F**king Flybe, sold us out for 1p a share, to think I was going to sell last night for 16p. Well we all have to learn at some point to follow Buffett's advice a little more religiously! Still an absolute con job though. Previous rejected bid was at 40p, and last night's news suggested 9p which at the time I was furious about. Never too early for a drink methinks!

Another Virgin stitch up? When they got Northern Rock on the cheap from taxpayers, there must have been a few chuckles about the £747m price being a jumbo jet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
On 08/01/2019 at 23:18, sancho panza said:

On 08/01/2019 at 22:30, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been busy on Ebay SP buying my summer clothes (second hand of course),it takes me a while as i only go for the quality stuff and will only pay peanuts so miss a lot of the auctions,but iv spent £160 and if i had bought it all new about £1000.As you mention Footasylum i got a lovely pair of white trainers,almost new,£49 in there,got them for £12 delivered.I always go for the ones with womens names on account,and who havent a lot of feedback,and start auctions at 99p no reserve.I find these tend to be people with an ex just getting shot of his gear, xD,i check every day an never ever bid more than a few £ plus postage,lose 8 for every 2 i get,but amazing the savings.People really are crazy.

On 08/01/2019 at 23:18, sancho panza said:

That's brilliant,I'll have to have a butchers. @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker should be told. I got loads of decent food half price Christmas Eve at Aldi,but mrs P won't let me have a huge freezer in the garage,so sadly couldn't do the opportunity justice.

Makes it harder to explain why some retialers are rallying.Curently only one tiny short on Anglo Am.But getting more tempted as the market rally I predicted in early dec(wrong),mid dec(wrong again) late dec (wrongagain again) finally arrives and lifts builders and the likes of card factory.

@DurhamBorn  @sancho panza Thanks for the Ebay TIP!

I must say though, I've got to be the TIGHTEST ...frugal old scrimper on this board as i haven't spent £160 on second hand clothes in the last DECADE! :Old:

As I've said before i do the boot-sales and never pay more than a couple of quid for trousers/shirts etc ...however i do let myself go and pay up to a fiver for good quality footwear! xD

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I don't want to come over all like your mum, but I'm worried about the company you keep!

I've heard of timing the markets but your divorce?

They are looking like coming out of this with a settlement of 59 billion dollars each... For 59B I would consider 4 weddings and a funeral as well as divorce. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Funn3r said:

They are looking like coming out of this with a settlement of 59 billion dollars each... For 59B I would consider 4 weddings and a funeral as well as divorce. 

The lady could make a tidy sum from Mr Market just by being paid not to sell her shares!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Funn3r said:

A lot of talk all over the place about what Jeff Bezos divorce will do to Amazon if 50% gets awarded to his wife. Some unkind people are recalling Enron where Lou Pai cashed out and transferred all the money to his ex wife just before everything collapsed. Under normal circumstances he would have been done for insider trading, but he could truthfully say "the court made me do it."

Obviously no suggestion at all that there's any similarity. 

Possible.

The future of Debenhams relies on this pair of MILFy tits

article-0-0F4DDA3000000578-173_468x706.j

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

5 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

@DurhamBorn  @sancho panza Thanks for the Ebay TIP!

I must say though, I've got to be the TIGHTEST ...frugal old scrimper on this board as i haven't spent £160 on second hand clothes in the last DECADE! :Old:

As I've said before i do the boot-sales and never pay more than a couple of quid for trousers/shirts etc ...however i do let myself go and pay up to a fiver for good quality footwear! xD

 

 

DB and Yellow Sticker spotted in Tesco xD

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6580777/Tesco-shoppers-shove-way-fling-items-baskets-discount-frenzy.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bobthebuilder
15 minutes ago, harp said:

I've seen similarly days in Sainsburys, Dalston, East London, fucking useless people, usually just after xmas for the bargains.Shit bargains shit people, shit product,, just shit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

40 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I've seen similarly days in Sainsburys, Dalston, East London, fucking useless people, usually just after xmas for the bargains.Shit bargains shit people, shit product,, just shit.

makes me wonder if its greed or if people realy are that poor they will fight to save a few quid.ive noticed a lot of begging they call it gifting requests on facebook selling sites recently.far more than normal.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...