Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come.


DurhamBorn

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 11.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Wesdome production&guidance report is in, and as preditcted, it's a low-key headline with a lot of goodies hidden inside.

The bad: full year production at 71,6koz and 2019 guidance of 72-80koz.

Now, I use the term "bad" very loosely here and "disappointing" would probably be more accurate. 2018 production is bang on target (expected 72koz) and 2019 guidance is an incremental upgrade. However, I expected guidance in the range of 80-85koz, basing it on termination of processing of low-grade Mishi ore and commencement of mining the high-grade 303 lense at Eagle River. However, Mishi is still in the pipeline for 2019 and expected to deliver 3-4koz, so quick maths indicates that roughly 50k tonnes of ore, or about 20% of mill capacity, will come from there. Also, the 303 lens will only come into play in Q3, resulting in the first-half guidance of 31-35koz and 41-45koz for the second half.

The good: yes, that's 41-45koz for the second half, when high-grade zone finaly kicks in. I don't know whether it includes Mishi tailings or if they gonna front-load the low-grade stuff and switch exclusively to Eagle River ore in H2, but either way it's very impressive and actually better than I hoped.

The hidden gem: well, not exactly hidden, but it's not in the headline either. Head grade at Eagle River at 15.5-16.5g/t. Now that gives me a stiffy. 16g/t is exceptionally good in its own right and helps drive the costs down, but it gets even better - it's a full year guidance, so it includes continued mining of the current zone in Q1 and Q2. Now, Eagle River averaged 11.73g/t for the year and 10.60g/t for the fourth quarter. Even taking an assumption that they will drive it up to 12-13g/t range for the first half of the year, in order to average 16g/t for the year the 303 lens needs to be in the 18-20g/t range and that's just phenomenal. Expect plenty of fireworks in the second half of the year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Thorn said:

OK Durhamborn watching the gold price hover just below 1300...So is now the time to get some pm miners, GDX and GDXJ... what are you all doing 

My target for gold is still the $1500 area and silver $22 so id gladly buy miners at the moment and am topping up silver miners each month out of my wages.The miners are hated and it might be we drift in them or even slowly down to disgust the final hands to leave before the big trend higher.

Im actually very pleased with how a lot is going.The transports have done very well,other stocks i want have hit or are close to next buy points.

Notice today how Hitachi have pulled out of building that nuclear plant as costs are too high.What that really means is energy prices are too low to build it.A classic example of how deflation will lead to high inflation.Those energy assets already out there are undervalued by a long way and that will become very clear as the cycle unfolds.

Notice today as well Primark unable to lift sales.Great company,probably the best out there in the space,but simply cant push the consumer any harder.Just as our macro work points,the consumer is about to become a smaller part of the economy,investment will have to take up the slack.

Im noticing more and more analysts who are talking about certain areas of the market that will need divi cuts etc.That might happen,but what they are missing is the massive uplift in free cash when inflation starts to trend.Need/wont give up high capital investment areas suck up the spending power,want/like takes the hit.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Wesdome production&guidance report is in, and as preditcted, it's a low-key headline with a lot of goodies hidden inside.

The bad: full year production at 71,6koz and 2019 guidance of 72-80koz.

Now, I use the term "bad" very loosely here and "disappointing" would probably be more accurate. 2018 production is bang on target (expected 72koz) and 2019 guidance is an incremental upgrade. However, I expected guidance in the range of 80-85koz, basing it on termination of processing of low-grade Mishi ore and commencement of mining the high-grade 303 lense at Eagle River. However, Mishi is still in the pipeline for 2019 and expected to deliver 3-4koz, so quick maths indicates that roughly 50k tonnes of ore, or about 20% of mill capacity, will come from there. Also, the 303 lens will only come into play in Q3, resulting in the first-half guidance of 31-35koz and 41-45koz for the second half.

The good: yes, that's 41-45koz for the second half, when high-grade zone finaly kicks in. I don't know whether it includes Mishi tailings or if they gonna front-load the low-grade stuff and switch exclusively to Eagle River ore in H2, but either way it's very impressive and actually better than I hoped.

The hidden gem: well, not exactly hidden, but it's not in the headline either. Head grade at Eagle River at 15.5-16.5g/t. Now that gives me a stiffy. 16g/t is exceptionally good in its own right and helps drive the costs down, but it gets even better - it's a full year guidance, so it includes continued mining of the current zone in Q1 and Q2. Now, Eagle River averaged 11.73g/t for the year and 10.60g/t for the fourth quarter. Even taking an assumption that they will drive it up to 12-13g/t range for the first half of the year, in order to average 16g/t for the year the 303 lens needs to be in the 18-20g/t range and that's just phenomenal. Expect plenty of fireworks in the second half of the year.

Thats an insane grade kibuc if true and along strike.Only some of the deep SA mines can get near to that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 11/01/2019 at 12:45, Majorpain said:

Looks like they have literally run out of cash due to the Credit Card companies requiring more collateral, seems a tad odd that they have loads of "assets" on the balance sheet but they are still deemed a bigger risk?  Unless the insurers know something we don't and are pricing those assets at what people will pay for them, in say, 6 months? (£0)

 

Intersting.Very much like the way some retialers go under due to supplier insurance.But when you were working on thin margins and have chunky outgoings times can get hard real quick.

On 12/01/2019 at 00:04, zugzwang said:

Bank of Japan quietly reloads its bazooka.

http://www.atimes.com/article/bank-of-japan-quietly-reloads-its-bazooka/

Haruhiko-Kuroda-960x576.jpg

 

I'm going to be genuinely interested whta they do when they own 100% of teh stock market.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 13/01/2019 at 00:21, DurhamBorn said:

Thats very true,but council tax is getting to crazy level.Iv got care costs sorted out for my family.I sent my daughter to uni to be a nurse and my partner is a nurse/community care worker.If my dad gets to that stage we are shipping him in here to my back bedroom and she is packing in work.My dad will simply divert his pensions to her apart from some gambling money and whiskey .My partner would do the same for me,or my daughter would,as again once/if i get to that stage il divert my money to my daughter and then when i peg she can retire anyway.

 

This will be one of the things driving prices down.Currently in Zuid Afrika seeing Mrs P's famiy and friends and it's impressive to see how many aeverage houses there are valued at 20+ multpiles to local salary.Weak rand means food and fuel can beRand will only get weaker imho.

WHen you start adding burgeoning welfare/social care costs into a collapsing currency things get very interesting indeed.UK is betweena rock and hard place with all it'svarious promises.PArticualrly,young working age couples trying to fund hosue purcahses and at the same time trying to fund pensions and social care they will never ever get.
 

Prime example Leicester.Aversge hosue LE2 is £200k, average salary £20k, council tax for ana verage 3 bed semi £1500p.a.....

On 13/01/2019 at 07:39, Calcutta said:

Has anybody got a link to a decent list of FTSE companies and how far in debt they are? 

 Sure I'm being simple but my phone just won't throw one up.

I think you'll have to wade through the figures.Investingcom doesn't.Morning star might.

On 13/01/2019 at 09:35, Barnsey said:

Interesting to see just how many US govt workers are struggling after the loss of just 1 paycheck, some even having to sell their cars. Preview of what's to come in near recession, house of cards to fall down insanely fast IMO

Similar story in the UK I would suspect.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 14/01/2019 at 11:17, leonardratso said:

meagre merger;

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2019-01-14/newmont-mining-buy-goldcorp-10-billion-deal-create-worlds-largest-gold-miner

In the latest deal in what's becoming a wave of consolidation among gold miners, Newmont Mining announced on Monday that it would buy smaller miner Gold Corp in a deal valued at $10 billion.

Gold

The deal could create the largest gold miner in the world, with operations stretching from the Americas, to Australia and Ghana, the companies said. Newmont will offer 0.3280 of its share and two cents for each share of its Canadian rival, according to  CNBC. The deal is the largest in the space since Randgold and Barrick announced their plans to merge back in September.

As the Wall Street Journal pointed out, the depletion of global gold mines and the resulting increase in extraction costs has pushed gold miners to seek cost efficiencies and smaller-scale combinations.

“The strategic rationale for combining Goldcorp with Newmont is powerfully compelling on many levels.” Goldcorp Chief Executive Officer David Garofalo said in a statement. Goldcorp shares climbed 1.3% in premarket trading on the news. The GDX, an ETF of gold miners, also climbed on the news.

Sold too cheaply imho.Garofalo gets anotehr payday.

.Saves me buying Newmont who've got a ecent deal from what I can see-happy to defer to more knowledgeable pm miner traders @DurhamBorn  @Majorpain @kibuc

On 14/01/2019 at 11:52, kibuc said:

There's no question that m&a is the name of the game. Who's next - Newgold? B2gold? Pretium? Companies are looking for proven oz in the ground, so probably none of the juniors. 

Loads are in play.Cheap as well.

 

On 14/01/2019 at 21:38, Cattle Prod said:

@sancho panza ENI have just made a strategic move into the Middle East, taking licences in Abu Dhabi, Bahrain, Sharjah, and Oman. I screened some of these for my company, and there is juicy stuff in one of them in particular. We couldn't move fast enough, and I am going to console myself with some ENI shares. May not move their needle much, but they are making all the right moves and I want skin in their game.

Cheers for the heads up CP,I'll defo be buying some in the next year as part of our oil exposure.Just trying to look at the charts for entry points.

On 15/01/2019 at 13:25, Harley said:

All very quiet here.  Where have all the usual suspects gone?  Should I be busy doing something too?

IN SA with Mrs P watching UK builders rally nicely into Q1 2019.HAve lucked otu as normally I'd have loaded back into them if I wasn't away fending baboons and trying to get the kids to sleep when they're pumped up on sugar.

On 15/01/2019 at 18:16, Majorpain said:

 

On 15/01/2019 at 18:16, Majorpain said:

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2019/01/14/plant-hire-giant-hawk-falls-into-administration/

Debt deflation is happening now, ive prepared my positions to sit in so there is not much to do but watch and wait.

Steady bad news till something like Deutshe blows and everyone realises its not different this time IMO....

Its not too late to pick up Amazon at 200 PE!

I think Deutsche will blow too.Lots of Western banks over exposed to junk bonds and pwoperdee invesment

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 16/01/2019 at 10:34, DurhamBorn said:

Anyone noticed how well the transports are doing?.Really bounced a lot from the bottoms.Im not selling my bottom ladders this time though just in case they dont re-test lows again.

Its amazing isnt it when our main concern is not leaving too much in cash too long.It shows the insane way governments have spent (mostly on welfare both client state and corporate) and the CBs have allowed them by monetizing the debt (or in the UK case about half the increase).I have zero faith in fiat going forward.I have no doubt we will all have pounds in our pocket,but the value will be inflated away.The first round of inflation they printed went into assets (in the UK mostly houses) and inflated spending power away that way,the next lot will go into other real assets,energy,food,commods etc.That round will do the real damage to most people.Rates will tighten,but behind the curve.My home is my pension will be blown away through the cycle,that im certain of.

Iv managed to find a IFA who will handle a final salary pension transfer into a SIPP,a good friend of mine uses him.He is as dodgy as they come and likes the folding stuff as he has a thirst for women of the night and will rubber stamp it for £700,:Beer:

One of the only honest IFAs out there imho.

On 16/01/2019 at 12:09, Calcutta said:

Not all heroes wear capes.

On another subject....any thoughts on National Express? Not too exposed to rail, got quite a few new coaches on the road, run a few school buses in the US....and I used to love getting put on them when I was a kid and whichever parent didn't want me around for a bit...

lolzzz

19 hours ago, Majorpain said:

Deutsche cant merge with Commerzbank because they are both too weak to benefit.

So the proposal is to merge it with another "foreign" bank so the load of bailing out the behemoth can be spread over as  many countries as possible and not just the German taxpayer.

Who in the right mind is going to sign off a deal which has potentially Trillions of liabilities dependant on how the derivatives loan book plays out?

Its mad, totally mad.

Mate jsut got laid off from a decent payday consulting with DB offshore.They're winding down offshore.

I thin k they're in a huge hole,I don't know but my gut radar is flagging the warnings to me.

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

My target for gold is still the $1500 area and silver $22 so id gladly buy miners at the moment and am topping up silver miners each month out of my wages.The miners are hated and it might be we drift in them or even slowly down to disgust the final hands to leave before the big trend higher.

Im actually very pleased with how a lot is going.The transports have done very well,other stocks i want have hit or are close to next buy points.

Notice today how Hitachi have pulled out of building that nuclear plant as costs are too high.What that really means is energy prices are too low to build it.A classic example of how deflation will lead to high inflation.Those energy assets already out there are undervalued by a long way and that will become very clear as the cycle unfolds.

Notice today as well Primark unable to lift sales.Great company,probably the best out there in the space,but simply cant push the consumer any harder.Just as our macro work points,the consumer is about to become a smaller part of the economy,investment will have to take up the slack.

Im noticing more and more analysts who are talking about certain areas of the market that will need divi cuts etc.That might happen,but what they are missing is the massive uplift in free cash when inflation starts to trend.Need/wont give up high capital investment areas suck up the spending power,want/like takes the hit.

Great way of putting it.Debt deflatiosn start with people jsut stopping taking it out.Often for noe xpliclbe reason.Bought Glabraiths seminal wok away with me.Sadly no chance to read it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

German BDI Industry Association has just forecast a 1/3 drop in German economic growth if disorderly Brexit happens, just revealed the stakes at play.

What’s 1/3 of zero?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Great way of putting it. Debt deflation start with people just stopping taking it out.Often for noe explicable reason.

Right on cue...

Demand for Credit Cards and Mortgages Falling Fast, warns BofE

I like how the article can’t quite decide if this is a good or a bad thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-demand-for-credit-cards-and-mortgages-falling-fast-warns-bofe

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Lavalas said:

Right on cue...

Demand for Credit Cards and Mortgages Falling Fast, warns BofE

I like how the article can’t quite decide if this is a good or a bad thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-demand-for-credit-cards-and-mortgages-falling-fast-warns-bofe

Quote

Despite the warnings, prices have continued to rise sharply in some parts of the UK, including Manchester and Birmingham, even as the value of homes in London stalls or declines.

Classic ripple, I can't see this going on for much longer.

UK house prices fall at fastest rate in six years on back of Brexit – Rics

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics

Quote

The looming threat of Brexit has dragged down the UK property market further, with prices falling at the fastest rate in six years and the outlook for sales the weakest in two decades, according to Britain’s surveyors.

The Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics) said the number of inquiries, agreed sales and new instructions all declined in December.

Sales expectations for the next three months were the lowest since the survey began in 1999, with a balance of -28% – the difference between the number of respondents anticipating increases and the number expecting decreases.

Sales expectations were either flat or negative in every region of the UK for the period from January to March, when the UK is scheduled to leave the EU.

Nothing to do with batshit crazy HPI then? Brexit just an excuse, if for some reason we do end up with a much softer brexit, it'll be just as we enter a global recession, so screwed either way. Purely anecdotal, but the areas/houses I follow on Rightmove are suddenly seeing sharper reductions, both in SE and further north in Midlands

A key part:

Quote

The surveyors body also highlighted the lack of supply and affordability, with stock levels and buyer interest declining further in December. Estate agents have an average of 42 properties on their books per branch, close to record lows.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, sancho panza said:

This will be one of the things driving prices down.Currently in Zuid Afrika seeing Mrs P's famiy and friends and it's impressive to see how many aeverage houses there are valued at 20+ multpiles to local salary.Weak rand means food and fuel can beRand will only get weaker imho.

WHen you start adding burgeoning welfare/social care costs into a collapsing currency things get very interesting indeed.UK is betweena rock and hard place with all it'svarious promises.PArticualrly,young working age couples trying to fund hosue purcahses and at the same time trying to fund pensions and social care they will never ever get.

Prime example Leicester.Aversge hosue LE2 is £200k, average salary £20k, council tax for ana verage 3 bed semi £1500p.a.....

I think you'll have to wade through the figures.Investingcom doesn't.Morning star might.

Similar story in the UK I would suspect.

I would expect one of two (or both) things to happen:

o A resurgence in extended families living under one roof, with implications for all those executive flats (unless you can knock them together).  First it will be house price affordability, then affordability of living alone (rates, utilities, protection, etc). 

o A return to the very old days where those without relatives to look after them in their old age are looked after at home by a non-relative, on the understanding the house and chattels will pass to them on their death.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 hours ago, Thorn said:

OK Durhamborn watching the gold price hover just below 1300...So is now the time to get some pm miners, GDX and GDXJ... what are you all doing 

I was finally stopped out of the last of my US tech shares just before Christmas. Of course they've risen 10% since! I've had them for 20 years so I'm a bit sad to see them finally go.

I've been adding to miners, physical precious metals and some reflation stocks as they've hit certain targets but I'm mainly still waiting for the big crunch to happen. I'm currently allocated (approximately):

  • Cash : 46%
  • UK FTSE index tracker : 16%
  • Reflation stocks : 14%
  • Miners : 10%
  • PMs : 9%
  • US Treasuries 6%

(I know it comes to 101% but that's rounding for you)

I'll be adding some more PMs and I'd like to add a bit more to US Treasuries.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Right on cue...

Demand for Credit Cards and Mortgages Falling Fast, warns BofE

I like how the article can’t quite decide if this is a good or a bad thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-demand-for-credit-cards-and-mortgages-falling-fast-warns-bofe

 

 

 

I've been taking advantage of 0% on purchases credit cards for the last four/five years. Despite having a near perfect credit score and always cancelling the older ones for the last few months I have not had any decent deals available to me. Just a couple of crap 6 months for low credit score cards with very low limits that are just not worth it.

I was assuming they were flagging me up as a card whore, but I wonder if there has been a reduction in supply as well as demand?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, null; said:

 

I've been taking advantage of 0% on purchases credit cards for the last four/five years. Despite having a near perfect credit score and always cancelling the older ones for the last few months I have not had any decent deals available to me. Just a couple of crap 6 months for low credit score cards with very low limits that are just not worth it.

I was assuming they were flagging me up as a card whore, but I wonder if there has been a reduction in supply as well as demand?

My bank keep sending me card and loan offers. 0% for 18 months on the credit card and 3.3% on a loan of up to £50k. Now If I knew they would give me close to that on a loan I would take it in heartbeat instead of going for a mortgage. But alas not being a homeowner I doubt they would consider it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My target for gold is still the $1500 area and silver $22 so id gladly buy miners at the moment and am topping up silver miners each month out of my wages.The miners are hated and it might be we drift in them or even slowly down to disgust the final hands to leave before the big trend higher.

Im actually very pleased with how a lot is going.The transports have done very well,other stocks i want have hit or are close to next buy points.

Notice today how Hitachi have pulled out of building that nuclear plant as costs are too high.What that really means is energy prices are too low to build it.A classic example of how deflation will lead to high inflation.Those energy assets already out there are undervalued by a long way and that will become very clear as the cycle unfolds.

Notice today as well Primark unable to lift sales.Great company,probably the best out there in the space,but simply cant push the consumer any harder.Just as our macro work points,the consumer is about to become a smaller part of the economy,investment will have to take up the slack.

Im noticing more and more analysts who are talking about certain areas of the market that will need divi cuts etc.That might happen,but what they are missing is the massive uplift in free cash when inflation starts to trend.Need/wont give up high capital investment areas suck up the spending power,want/like takes the hit.

I think Hitachi just want more governbankment subsidy to build Wylfa. Otherwise the odds are getting too risky for them to gamble even more of their own money. Our governbankment looks shambolic and already had one vote of no confidence. Hitachi may be worried about Corbyn stood in the background with his plans to re-nationalise utilities.

Also if our energy prices are too low for firms to invest, what about the governbankment's energy price cap that Centrica are going to fight in the courts? Hitachi must be fuming that instead of them getting more governbankment subsidy, lower energy prices means energy suppliers are going to have to subsidise consumers to spend money at Primark!

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some great Wolf St to catch up on.

Turksih PM/miners regretting their purchases????

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/15/turkeys-debt-crisis-deepens-erdogan-bails-out-banks-his-way/

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has launched a raft of measures ostensibly designed to reanimate the economy, including offering direct financial support for people with credit-card debt. The plan will enable Turkey’s maxed-out consumers to go to the biggest state-run lender, Ziraat Bank, and apply for debt rescheduling at low rates of interest. “Any retail client from any bank can apply,” Erdogan said.

Credit-card debt is a major problem. Since 2010 consumer credit has increased almost five-fold on the back of low interest rates (at least in certain foreign currencies), government incentives, and loose loan standards. By August 2018, when these pillars supporting Erdogan’s debt-fueled economic miracle began to buckle, outstanding non-housing consumer debt, peaked at 532 billion Turkish lira ($97 billion at today’s exchange rate, chart via Trading Economics):

image.png.d06337315e5e194fffa98ec775529881.png

 

China appears to be hitting the debt demand buffers

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/14/china-auto-sales-plunge-4th-month-in-row-2018-first-down-year-since-1990-welcome-to-the-club-of-saturation-decline/

Welcome to the Big Club of Saturation & Decline.

For the month of December, light new-vehicle sales in China plunged 13%, compared to a year ago, to 2.23 million vehicles, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) announced on Monday. Sales through June had risen 6%, but then came July, and now there have been six months in a row of year-over-year declines – with the last four months dousing any remaining enthusiasm about China’s consumers with double-digit declines:

  • July: -4.00%
  • August: -3.8%
  • September: -11.6%
  • October: -11.7%
  • November: -13.9%
  • December -13.0%

These declines pushed light new-vehicle sales down 4.1% for the year, to 23.7 million. This phenomenon of declining auto sales is new to China’s managed and pump-primed growth-no-matter-what economy. Data going back to 1990 show relentless annual sales increases. Between 2005 and peak-year 2017, new vehicle sales multiplied by a factor of six:

China-auto-sales-2018.png

 

 

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/14/bankruptcy-next-pge-says-shares-down-90-in-15-months-from-investment-grade-to-default-in-three-weeks/

Bankruptcy Next, PG&E Says. Shares Down 90% in 15 Months. From “Investment Grade” to “Default” in Three Weeks?

With the bankruptcy filing, the utility is holding a gun to California’s head – its lawmakers, regulators, and taxpayers. As we can surmise from PG&E’s last bankruptcy (2001), rate payers and tax payers will likely foot much of the bill, after shareholders get mostly cleaned out – they already have been, see chart above – but the sacred bondholders will likely be made whole.

The yet to be named banks that PG&E expects to provide $5.5 billion in Debtor in Possession (DIP) financing during the bankruptcy proceedings will make a bundle.

Last week, Moody’s cut PG&E’s corporate credit rating by five notches in one fell swoop, from investment grade to junk, following a similar cut by S&P Global Ratings. No telling why it took them so long, considering how long the bankruptcy issue has been kicked around. These downgrades to junk forced PG&E to post cash collateral, which removed any financial breathing room the company still had. The bankruptcy filing becomes the logical next step. '

A sign of the times in the USA

https://wolfstreet.com/2019/01/13/movie-ticket-sales-1995-2018/

image.png.ac2d3019df06a3f947f1fd66023c0588.png

In terms of per-capita ticket sales: During the record year 2002, with a US population of 288 million, 5.4 tickets were sold per capita. By banner year 2018, with a population of 327 million, this had dropped 24% to 4.1 tickets per capita. This is the brick-and-mortar meltdown for the movie theater industry which is gradually losing its battle against digital competition.

Thus, whether the industry has a good year or a lousy year depends on just a handful of flicks, even as the industry is sinking deeper into its structural decline that saw per-capital ticket sales plunge 24% since 2002. '

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Barnsey said:

Classic ripple, I can't see this going on for much longer.

UK house prices fall at fastest rate in six years on back of Brexit – Rics

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics

Nothing to do with batshit crazy HPI then? Brexit just an excuse, if for some reason we do end up with a much softer brexit, it'll be just as we enter a global recession, so screwed either way. Purely anecdotal, but the areas/houses I follow on Rightmove are suddenly seeing sharper reductions, both in SE and further north in Midlands

A key part:

 

BKG still near £38 .............................markets are amazing things....

2 hours ago, Harley said:

I would expect one of two (or both) things to happen:

o A resurgence in extended families living under one roof, with implications for all those executive flats (unless you can knock them together).  First it will be house price affordability, then affordability of living alone (rates, utilities, protection, etc). 

o A return to the very old days where those without relatives to look after them in their old age are looked after at home by a non-relative, on the understanding the house and chattels will pass to them on their death.

Tick and tick I reckon.The way to beat rising council tax is to have more people under one roof..Obviously as this catches on it will force council tax up.

4 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Right on cue...

Demand for Credit Cards and Mortgages Falling Fast, warns BofE

I like how the article can’t quite decide if this is a good or a bad thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-demand-for-credit-cards-and-mortgages-falling-fast-warns-bofe

 

 

Who could have foreseen this happening?Brexit is the excuse that made people worried.Leverage was the disease.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

39 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Tick and tick I reckon.The way to beat rising council tax is to have more people under one roof..Obviously as this catches on it will force council tax up.

They should (need to) introduce a per person tax!

Or (turning black white and vice versa) high tax with discounts for a smaller number of occupants!

Either way, there's a local authority pension rebellion coming!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has launched a raft of measures ostensibly designed to reanimate the economy, including offering direct financial support for people with credit-card debt.

China appears to be hitting the debt demand buffers

Is Erdogan ahead of his time? Helicopter money for the debtors?

Re China I was watching Dr Carney at the Treasury Select Committee meeting yesterday. They asked him to make predictions about the world economy and mentioned China. He said he thought China was slowing and that each -3% reduction in their GDP would mean a -0.5% reduction in ours. He mentioned them going into recession at -1.2% but said even at a catastrophic -10% GDP deep recession for them, he thinks our GDP would drop by 3%.

He also assured them that we cannot have another credit crunch. He talked about the counter cylical buffer I've mentioned before. He said it's risen to 1% but if necessary he would cut it to 0%. He said this would free £11.4bn of capital that "grossed up" would be £250bn of lending and net lending in 2018 was only £65bn, so years of credit supply when demand would probably be weaker.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, Lavalas said:

Right on cue...

Demand for Credit Cards and Mortgages Falling Fast, warns BofE

I like how the article can’t quite decide if this is a good or a bad thing.

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-demand-for-credit-cards-and-mortgages-falling-fast-warns-bofe

 

 

On rereading I thought it worth highlighting the following.

'Borrowing on credit cards, personal loans and car finance has risen above £200bn to surpass the levels seen before the financial crisis, with analysts blaming the increase on weak pay growth in the past decade, government austerity and cuts to benefits.

The precarious position of household finances meant families spent about £900 more on average than they had received in income during 2017, pushing their finances into deficit for the first time since the credit boom of the 1980s.'

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Harley said:

They should (need to) introduce a per person tax!

Or (turning black white and vice versa) high tax with discounts for a smaller number of occupants!

Either way, there's a local authority pension rebellion coming!

I thinbk that's the thing.You can only push people so far and you can't get blood out of a stone.Some of the council tax incresases in the face of declinign working age household incomes are incredible when you add them up over ten years since 2008.

It won't jsut be pensions either but why people sat in £500k houses are getting £2500 of social care form council taxpayers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...